Abstract As the polar ice is melting and the Suez- and Panama Canal experience reduced availability due to political instability and drought, the relevance of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as a shipping lane between Europe and Asia becomes more significant. Previous studies have examined the possibilities of NSR transits; however, shipping stakeholders’ perceived risks and opportunities regarding the NSR have gotten less attention. The purpose of this study is to obtain a deeper understanding of the relevant factors influencing the decisions of Norwegian shipping stakeholders regarding the use of the NSR. An abductive approach has been taken for this study, with qualitative data collection through semi-structured in-depth interviews. This study concludes that the following are the perceived risk elements: being trapped in ice, drift-ice collision, difficulty with search and rescue (SAR), the short season, and being reliant on Russia. This study concludes that the only universally agreed upon perceived opportunity for considering the NSR is the reduction in sailing distance. In contrast to previous studies, the findings of this research reveal that stakeholders do not consider the following factors as risks: the shallow straits on the NSR, insurance costs, increased operating expenditure (OPEX) incurred by the crew, icebreaker fees, and disputes over the legal status of the NSR. Moreover, unlike previous studies, the findings of this study do not support the idea that using NSR can enhance reputation and help shipping companies gain competitive advantages.

Direct connections between trading countries in container shipping can shorten transit times, and reduce risk, thereby enhancing global transportation, and supporting supply chain performance. While transhipment services offer strategic flexibility, cost efficiency and geographical reach, direct connections tend to be more suitable for time-sensitive, high-value, perishable, or specialised goods thus being critical for certain commodities and trade contexts. Therefore, understanding and estimating container shipping lines’ decisions to establish or discontinue a connection is crucial when structuring and planning supply chains. This paper employs a causal framework and draws on a dataset that considers the UK and its trading partners from 2012 to 2020 to unravel the broader key determinants of direct container shipping connections. Following its validation through expert interviews and sensitivity analysis, the model is then used to simulate how direct connections may evolve under a significant trade flow disruption, achieving a 94% out-of-sample predictive performance. The model can support scenario analysis, inform contingency planning, and guide public–private initiatives aimed at strengthening the adaptability of global logistics under conditions of uncertainty. The results provide actionable insights for both policymakers and practitioners, offering a timely tool for anticipating changes in container shipping networks. Governments can integrate such models into national transport policies to proactively address potential disruptions in trade flows and enhance supply chain resilience.