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Macroeconomic Currency Crisis Early Warning Indicators in Emerging Countries

This study investigates the relationships between exchange rate and the main macroeconomic variables as GDP, inflation and unemployment on one hand and the ability of these variables in alerting about coming exchange rate crisis in emerging countries. The three variables have significant coefficients with exchange rate in line with literature signs except unemployment rate. The study uses signal approach, dealing specifically with the main macroeconomic variables, selected by system GMM method in emerging markets. The study develops macroeconomic pressure indices from these selected macroeconomic variables using the market pressure index methodology from Early Warning System literature. Based on the macroeconomic variables, a combined macroeconomic pressure index has been built. The results of the non-parametric early warning system indicate that the individual macroeconomic pressure indexes created are good warning tools of a currency crisis. The macroeconomic pressure indexes are better early warning indicators than market pressure index built from international reserves, in emerging countries for four quarters warning period window. Production pressure index appears more accurate followed by inflation but unemployment pressure index is the most sensitive. However, the number of effective indicators and the accuracy of the indexes are not the same for all the countries, changing from a country to another.

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Role of Microfinance Institutions in Ethiopian Economy: A Review

This work reviews the role of microfinance institutions in the Ethiopian economy, which was done by using a balanced scorecard (BSC) performance review approach that integrates both financial and nonfinancial metrics. The BSC framework of the review was developed using a total of performance indicators that were equally categorized under BSC perspectives (financial, customer, internal business processes, and learning and growth). The developed framework was applied to MFIs operating in Ethiopia, which have head offices in all regional capitals of the country and report to the Association of Ethiopian Microfinance Institutions (AEMFI) starting in 2010–2012 consecutively. The work of the review shows that based on their financial role, on average, the institutions reviewed are sustainable with high relative productivity and low profitability. The average non-financial performance is also high, indicating that the reviewed institutions are highly performing in both non-financial and financial measures. Beside the role performance, the work of this review confirmed the relationship assumption of BSC perspectives and it shows a positive correlation among them. The review concludes that comprehensive performance is observed when it is measured in a collective way. So, Ethiopian MFIs suggested paying attention to the use of BSC as a performance measurement tool and as a hub for specified role indicators that need enhancement.

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Systems and Social Dynamics in the Rural City of La Concordia: Strengths and Weaknesses Related to Its Development at the Beginning of the 21st Century

This study aims to identify strategies for promoting economic-social development and territorial planning in the municipality of La Concordia, with a focus on the promotion of small and medium-sized entrepreneurs in the primary and tertiary sectors and the strengthening of labor market mobility. The research employed a mixed-methods approach, including qualitative interviews with key stakeholders, a survey of micro and small business owners, and a review of relevant literature. The study identified several potentialities and weaknesses associated with the micro-systems within the municipality and recommended specific strategies to support entrepreneurship and mobility in the labor market, including access to credit and financial services, development of value chains and clusters, and investment in education and training programs. The study also highlighted the importance of promoting an enabling environment that facilitates innovation, creativity, and entrepreneurship, and emphasized the need for policies that balance economic growth with environmental protection. Overall, the study concludes that public policies aimed at economic-social development and territorial planning in La Concordia must be developed through a participatory and inclusive process, involving all stakeholders, and must be informed by a deep understanding of the social, economic, and environmental dynamics of the community, as well as the needs and aspirations of its members.

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