Year
Publisher
Journal
1
Institution
Institution Country
Publication Type
Field Of Study
Topics
Open Access
Language
Filter 1
Year
Publisher
Journal
1
Institution
Institution Country
Publication Type
Field Of Study
Topics
Open Access
Language
Filter 1
Export
Sort by: Relevance
Exploring epidemics using non-monotonic incidence function: Effects of sociological factors and hospital bed availability

This study investigates the dynamics of an epidemic employing an (Susceptible-Infected-Hospitalized-Recovered-Susceptible (SIHRS) epidemiological model highlighting the crucial importance of hospital bed availability and a non-monotone incidence function, which incorporates the influences of stringent governmental measures, social behavior dynamics and public responses in both autonomous and non-autonomous scenarios. The analysis investigates the conditions for existence of infection-free and endemic steady states based on the basic reproduction number as it surpasses unity. Sensitivity analysis has been conducted to evaluate the impact of different system parameters on disease transmission. This work also investigates alterations in stability of the system caused by transcritical, Hopf and saddle-node bifurcations. Additionally, two-parameter bifurcation identifies the regions where the stability of both the equilibrium points has been examined. Numerical simulations are shown to illustrate all the theoretically obtained results. Also, the model examines the dynamical behavior of the epidemic when the quantity of available hospital beds varies periodically. This aspect of the study highlights the significant impact of hospital bed availability. Such factors are crucial in preventing disease spread during an epidemic. The results provide valuable insights into how dynamic patterns of disease transmission are influenced by healthcare infrastructure and public health interventions. This comprehensive exploration underscores the importance of integrated approaches combining medical resources and societal measures in managing and mitigating the effects of epidemics.

Read full abstract
Just Published
Dynamical analysis of a fractional SVEIHRP mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission in the perspective of Bangladesh

In this study, we establish a sophisticated compartmental Caputo fractional-order Susceptible-Vaccinated-Exposed-Infected-Hospitalized-Recovered Pathogens mathematical model for analyzing the dynamical behavior of COVID-19 transmission in the perspective of COVID-19 pandemic situation of Bangladesh considering the data up to 2nd dose vaccination. The frame of Caputo fractional-order derivative has been used to fractionalize the model’s equations. A total of 10 distinct compartments have been used to represent the dynamics of human and novel coronavirus. The Next-generation matrix approach has been used for finding the basic reproduction number of considered model. For establishing the existence and uniqueness of the model’s solutions, here we apply Banach fixed point theorem. Routh–Hurwitz, Ulam–Hyers and generalized Ulam–Hyers stability criteria have been applied for stability analysis. We execute a sensitivity analysis to check the comparative prominence of the model’s parameters. For the numerical simulation, data have been accumulated from the COVID-19 dashboard of Directorate general of health services of Bangladesh. The Fractional Adams–Bashforth–Moulton method along with MATLAB code fde12.m has also been applied to perform the numerical simulation. Furthermore, here we use some Maple codes for finding the model’s equilibrium points, basic reproduction number and sensitivity indices. Finally, we include a discussion on the influence of new rate of infections through environment and interaction with infected persons as well as the effect of 1st and 2nd dose vaccinations.

Read full abstract