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Darwin meets dr. Frankenstein: Using the Drake equation to calculate the probability of volcanic lightning's impact on chemical evolution

Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) has been a paramount mechanism of interest in recent literature addressing the origins of biological evolution. However, research on lightning-triggered electroporation represents the innovative and still insufficiently grasped approach to HGT (Kotnik, 2013). On the other hand, prebiotic synthesis is a fundamental process for chemical evolution. Recently, the effects of volcanic lightning on nitrogen fixation and phosphate reduction have also been considered (Navarro-González and Segura, 2004). This paper aims to present a top-down approach to the question of the origin of life on early Earth. By considering the conditions necessary for the emergence of biological and chemical evolution, emphasizing electrostatic discharges, we will attempt to link previous theoretical and experimental research. Furthermore, we will present a recent endeavor at applying the Drake equation to calculating the probability of volcanic lightning impact on the prebiotic synthesis and derive a similar use in estimating the contribution of lightning to HGT (Weaver, 2013). We will also display that choosing a type of probability appropriate for the context of life sciences is not necessarily a quantitative issue. Finally, we will show that significant conceptual constraints, like determining the relevant factors and sources of uncertainty when considering the origin of life on early Earth, are fundamentally philosophical issues. We hope that the results of our research - deriving Drake's equation in the domain of chemical evolution and considering Bayesian and counterfactual types as potentially more suitable candidates for calculating probabilities in the evolutionary framework - will contribute to developing new discussions in life sciences.

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A thematic approach to selection effects and biases in cosmology: Fred Hoyle and the rejection of the big bang idea, despite the experimental observations

Despite some important observations and after decades of widespread consensus around the big bang cosmology, Fred Hoyle, one of the proponents of the steady-state cosmology, continued to fight the big bang idea throughout his life. We can try to understand this persistent attitude of Hoyle through a Holtonian thematic approach, by admitting that personal preferences and choices of scientists are conditioned by themata. Thematic analysis shows that big bang cosmology is mainly based on a set of themata consisting of evolution, finitude, life cycle (which has a beginning), and change; the steady-state cosmology is based on opposite themata: steady-state, infinity, continuous existence, and constancy. Personal preferences seem to have been important in the strong and passionate dispute between big bang and steady-state ideas, and Hoyle is a very illustrative example of a personal commitment remarkably long-lived to some themata, in this case to the opposite themata of the big bang cosmology. In his personal and persistent struggle against the big bang idea, Hoyle always refused the way how some experimental observations were considered decisive in favor of this cosmology. This is a typical thematic attitude: letting some personal thematic preferences influence the acceptance or rejection of scientific evidence. In this case, that corresponds to the existence of selection effects and biases regarding important cosmological observations, in order to sustain a persistent rejection of the big bang idea.

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