Abstract In polygynous ungulates, males are often larger than females and bear more elaborate/larger weapons. Quantifying sexual dimorphism in different traits could provide insights into species-specific evolutionary pathways of sexual selection. Concerning the combination of secondary sexual traits, we found that Himalayan tahr (Hemitragus jemlahicus) is unique among the ~20 species in the tribe Caprini, as its body mass dimorphism is ~2-fold greater than the dimorphism in horn size, whereas horn shape appears to be near-monomorphic. Whilst horns show the same growth rate in both sexes, body mass increases faster in males. Considering age variation, dominant, golden-ruffed males are also heavier than brown-ruffed, lower-ranking males. Unlike most bovids, male–male competition in tahr does not seem to have influenced weapon development, suggesting a lower importance of horns in male–male competition compared to body mass, as their unritualized combat style also suggests. Our study highlights alternative evolutionary pathways occurring in the Caprinae, where intraspecific signals involve different traits, from weapons to pelage features. Accordingly, male tahr use their ruff colour as an ‘honest’ signal of rank.

We mapped flow velocity and calving rates of the iconic Perito Moreno Glacier (PMG), belonging to the Southern Patagonian Icefield (SPI) in the Argentinian Patagonia. We tracked PMG from 2001 to 2017, focusing mostly upon the latest images from 2016–2017. PMG delivers about ca. 106 m3 day−1 of ice in the Lago Argentino, and its front periodically reaches the Peninsula Magallanes. Therein, the PMG causes an ice-dam, clogging Brazo Rico channel, and lifting water level by about 10 m, until ice-dam failure, normally occurring in March. Here, we used 36 pairs of satellite images with a resolution of 10 m (SENTINEL2, visible, 9 pairs of images) and 15 m (LANDSAT imagery, panchromatic, 27 pairs of images) to calculate surface velocity (VS). We used Orientation Correlation technique, implemented via the ImGRAFT® TemplateMatch tool. Calving rates were then calculated with two methods, namely, (i) M1, by ice flow through the glacier front, and (ii) M2, by ice flow at 7.5 km upstream of the front minus ablation losses. Surface velocity ranged from about 4 m day−1 in the accumulation area to about 2 m day−1 in the calving front, but it is variable seasonally with maxima in the summer (December–January–February). Calving rate (CRM) ranges from 7.72 × 105 ± 32% to 8.76 × 105 ± 31% m3 day−1, in line with recent studies, also with maxima in the summer. We found slightly lower flow velocity and calving rates than previously published values, but our estimates cover a different period, and a generally large uncertainty in flow assessment suggests a recent overall stability of the glacier.

Snow gliding, a slow movement downhill of snow cover, is complex to forecast and model and yet is extremely important, because it drives snowpack dynamics in the pre-avalanching phase. Despite recent interest in this process and the development of some studies therein, this phenomenon is poorly understood and represents a major point of uncertainty for avalanche forecasting. This study presents a data-driven, physically based, time-dependent 1D model, Poli-Glide, able to predict the slow movement of snowpacks along a flow line at the daily scale. The objective of the work was to create a useful snow gliding model, requiring few, relatively easily available input data, by (i) modeling snowpack evolution from measured precipitation and air temperature, (ii) evaluating the rate and extent of movement of the snowpack in the gliding phase, and (iii) assessing fracture (i.e., avalanching) timing. Such a model could be then used to provide hazard assessment in areas subject to gliding, thereby, and subsequent avalanching. To do so, some simplifying assumptions were introduced, namely that (i) negligible traction stress occurs within soil, (ii) water percolation into snow occurs at a fixed rate, and (iii) the micro topography of soil is schematized according to a sinusoidal function in the absence of soil erosion. The proposed model was then applied to the “Torrent des Marais-Mont de La Saxe” site in Aosta Valley, monitored during the winters of 2010 and 2011, featuring different weather conditions. The results showed an acceptable capacity of the model to reproduce snowpack deformation patterns and the final snowpack’s displacement. Correlation analysis based upon observed glide rates further confirmed dependence against the chosen variables, thus witnessing the goodness of the model. The results could be a valuable starting point for future research aimed at including more complex parameterizations of the different processes that affect gliding.

Moore, G.W.K., Paolo Cristofanelli, Paolo Bonasoni, Gian Pietro Verza, and J.L. Semple. Was an avalanche swarm responsible for the devastation at Mount Everest Base Camp during the April 2015 Nepal earthquake? High Alt Med Biol. 21:352-359, 2020. Introduction: An avalanche triggered by an earthquake on April 25, 2015, struck the Mount Everest Base Camp (EBC) resulting in 15 deaths and over 70 injuries. Despite the common occurrence of avalanches in this region, little is known about their intensity and the stability of the glaciers that ring the Mount Everest massif. Here we present unique observations from a nearby automatic weather station (AWS) in the minutes just after the earthquake. Methods: Several (AWS) were deployed along the Khumbu Valley in Nepal. The site at Kala Patthar (elevation 5,613 m asl) 3.5 km from EBC and 4 km from the col along the ridge between Pumori and Lingtren was active from 2010 to 2015 and recorded temperature, relative humidity, pressure, solar radiation, and wind speed and direction. Results: The sequence of wind direction anomalies indicated that multiple air blasts passed the AWS, each associated with a distinct avalanche source, suggesting that earthquake likely caused a number of distinct avalanches from different source regions along this ridge. Discussion: Results suggest that a swarm of avalanches collectively lead to the death and destruction at EBC, suggesting the need for improvement in our understanding of avalanches in the region as well as in our ability to model and forecast such events.

In spite of the very large hydropower potential given from the melting snow and ice of Himalayas, Nepal’s population has little hydropower production. The high use of fossil fuels and biomasses results in measurable air pollution, even in the mountain areas. Hydropower planning and implementation, in the face of the changing climate, is therefore paramount important. We focus here on Nepal, and particularly on the Dudh Koshi river basin, with a population of ca. 170,000 people, within an area with large potential for hydropower production. Our main objectives are to (i) preliminarily design a local hydropower grid based on a distributed run of river ROR scheme, and (ii) verify the resilience of the grid against modified hydrology under perspective climate change, until the end of the century. To do so, we set up and tune the Poli-Hydro semi-distributed glacio-hydrological model, mimicking the complex hydrology of the area. We then modify a state of the art algorithm to develop and exploit a heuristic, resource-demand based model, called Poli-ROR. We use Poli-ROR to assess the (optimal) distribution of a number of ROR hydropower stations along the river network, and the structure of the local mini-grids. We then use downscaled outputs from three general circulation models GCMs (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC AR5, to assess the performance of the system under future modified hydrological conditions. We find that our proposed method is efficient in shaping ROR systems, with the target of the largest possible coverage (93%), and of the least price (0.068 € kWh−1 on average). We demonstrate also that under the projected hydrological regimes until 2100, worse conditions than now may occur, especially for plants with small drainage areas. Days with energy shortage may reach up to nf = 38 per year on average (against nf = 24 now), while the maximum daily energy deficit may reach as high as edef% = 40% (against edef% = 20% now). We demonstrate that our originally proposed method for ROR grid design may represent a major contribution towards the proper development of distributed hydropower production in the area. Our results may contribute to improve energy supply, and living conditions within the Dudh Koshi river. It is likely that our approach may be applied in Nepal generally. Impending climate change may require adaptation in time, including the use of other sources which are as clean as possible, to limit pollution. Our Poli-ROR method for grid optimization may be of use for water managers, and scientists with an interest in the design of optimal hydropower schemes in topographically complex catchments.

<p>Depiction of glaciers’ dynamics in the high altitudes of Himalaya, and hydrological fluxes therein is often limited, and yet necessary to assess their contribution to overall water budget in the downstream areas. Information about glaciers in these remote regions is often based on satellite data, which routinely document the retreat or advance of ice-covered areas, while volume changes are less easy to quantify, and require local assessment of weather, and hydrology. <br>Here, we report investigation of snow accumulation, ice melt, and mass balance of the West Khangri Nup (WKN) glacier (mean altitude 5494 m a.s.l., 0.23 km<sup>2</sup>), a part of the Khumbu glacier in the Everest region. The glaciers of the area have experienced negative mass balances in the last three decades, and accordingly investigation of their recent, and prospective dynamics seems necessary. <br>Weather, glaciological, snow pits, hydrologic, and isotopic data gathered during some field campaigns (2010-2014) on the glacier, and at the EVK2CNR pyramid site are used here to set up the Poli-Hydro glacio-hydrological model, to depict ice and snow melt and hydrological flows, and investigate seasonal snow dynamics on this high region of the glacier.   <br>Coupling ice ablation data, and Poli-Hydro simulation for ca. 5 years (January 2010-June 2014), we estimated that WKN depleted ca. -10.46 m of ice water equivalent IWE (i.e. annually ca. -2.32 m IWEy<sup>-1</sup>). Using then snowpack density, and isotopic (δ<sup>18</sup>O) profiles on the WKN, we demonstrate that local snowpack during field surveys was recent (Fall-Winter 2013-2014), and that significant snow accumulation did not occur recently. Analysis of recent snow cover from LANDSAT images also confirms snow dynamics as depicted. <br>We present original data and results, and complement present studies covering glaciers’ mass balance, and investigation of accumulation zones in the Everest region, and the Himalayas, also potentially helpful in the assessment of future dynamics under ongoing climate change.     </p>

The depiction of glaciers’ dynamics in the high altitudes of Himalaya and the hydrological fluxes therein is often limited. Although sparse seasonal (snow/ice) melt data may be available, dense precipitation networks are not available everywhere, and especially in the highest area, and the assessment of accumulation processes and mass balance may be difficult. Hydrological fluxes are little measured in the high altitudes, and few studies are available covering flow modeling and flow partitioning. Here, we investigate the snow accumulation, ice melt, and mass balance of West Khangri Nup (WKN) glacier (0.23 km2, mean altitude 5494 m asl), which is a part of the Khumbu glacier in the Everest region, where information of precipitation and hydro-glaciological dynamics in the highest altitudes was made available recently in fulfillment of several research projects. Weather, glaciological, snow pits, hydrologic, and isotopic data gathered during field campaigns (2010–2014) on the glacier and at the EVK2CNR Pyramid site were used to (i) set up the Poli-Hydro glacio-hydrological model to describe ice and snow melt and hydrological flows from the glacier, and (ii) investigate seasonal snow dynamics on this high region of the glacier. Coupling ice ablation data and Poli-Hydro simulation for ca. 5 years (January 2010–June 2014), we estimate that the WKN depleted ca. −10.46 m of ice water equivalent per year m IWE year−1 (i.e., annually ca. −2.32 meter of water equivalent per year m WE year−1). Then, using snowpack density and isotopic (δ18O) profiles on the WKN, we demonstrate that the local snowpack is recent (Fall–Winter 2013–2014) and that significant snow accumulation did not occur recently, so this area has not been a significant one of accumulation recently. Analysis of recent snow cover from LANDSAT images also confirms snow dynamics as depicted. Our study presents original data and results, and it complements present studies covering glaciers’ mass balance as well as an investigation of accumulation zones in the Everest region and the Himalayas, which is also potentially helpful in the assessment of future dynamics under ongoing climate change.

Global policies for mitigation of global warming GW will require countries to rely as possible upon renewable, clean energy sources. This includes developing countries, in need to foster suitable life conditions under population growth. Hydropower can deliver such renewable energy, pending water availability and proper management. In central Asia, water resources management is an urgent challenge, especially given desert climate, and the expected impacts of transient climate change hereon. While some catchments will still receive large shares of water from transient melting of the water towers in the Himalayas, others will not, given their little ice cover, in spite of the high altitudes. This is the case of Kabul River of Afghanistan, displaying low rainfall and high altitude, and yet displaying very small ice cover, and where further the present hydropower network is limited and partly damaged by recent conflicts. The goal of this work is to evaluate hydropower potential of the Kabul River and subsequently potential hydropower coverage of energy demand, under the hypotheses that (i) the present network would work at its largest potential and (ii) that hydrological regimes will change in response to scenarios of climate change, until the end of XXI century. To do so, we use a sparse array of data to tune the Poli-Hydro model, able to model hydrology of high altitude, poorly monitored catchments as here. Using modelled (and otherwise unknown) streamflows entering the present power plants (reservoirs + power-houses), we then simulate water management for hydropower purposes. We use two conditions, namely (i) run-of-river ROR and (ii) storage, and (optimal) regulation STO, allowing multipurpose use of water when necessary (e.g. irrigation needs). We then feed Poli-Hydro with IPCC climate scenarios (plus downscaling) until 2100, to carry out a sensitivity analysis (what if? scenarios) of (i) hydrological cycle and (ii) hydropower production. The future hydrological regimes are largely affected by uncertain future precipitation, and so is hydropower production. In spite of potentially increased hydropower on average (+ 1.4% at mid-century, + 1.7% at 2100), driven by variably changing stream flows, some scenarios indicate decreased overall production (down to − 3%) at half century. We provided here a tool usable to (i) assess present and future hydropower potential in the Kabul River, (ii) direct improvement of the present plants network and (iii) benchmark proposals for future network extension.

BackgroundExposure to indoor biomass fuel smoke is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study is to evaluate the association between exposure to indoor biomass burning and early pulmonary and cardiovascular damage. MethodsThe indoor levels of particulate matter (PM) [PM10, PM2.5] and black carbon (BC) were monitored in 32 houses in a Himalayan village. Seventy-eight subjects were submitted to spirometry and cardiovascular evaluation [carotid to femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) and echocardiography]. ResultsPeak indoor BC concentration up to 100 μg m−3 and PM10 - PM2.5 up to 1945–592 μg m−3 were measured. We found a non-reversible bronchial obstruction in 18% of subjects ≥40 yr; mean forced expiratory flow between 25% and 75% of the forced vital capacity (FEF25–75) <80% in 54% of subjects, suggestive of early respiratory impairment, significantly and inversely related to age. Average BC was correlated with right ventricular-right atrium gradient (R = 0.449,p = .002), total peripheral resistances (TPR) (R = 0.313,p = .029) and PWV (R = 0.589,p < .0001) especially in subjects >30 yr. In multiple variable analysis, BC remained an independent predictor of PWV (β = 0.556,p = .001), and TPR (β = 0.366;p = .018). ConclusionsIndoor pollution exposure is associated to early pulmonary and cardiovascular damages, more evident for longer duration and higher intensity exposure.

We here investigated the recent (1976–2014) evolution of the Ararat mountain glaciers, paradigmatic of the evolution of ice bodies in Western Asia and the Caucasus. We gathered ice cover maps, including debris cover from different sources, to depict glaciers’ extension, and its variation under recent climate patterns. We then gathered data of (daily/monthly) weather variables (temperature, precipitation, snow cover depth) from two local stations managed by Turkish State Meteorological Service, which we subsequently analyzed to assess the presence of significant trends. We used the recently developed, weather-driven glaciological model Poly-Ice, able to mimic distributed ice and snow melt, mass budget, and gravity-driven ice flow of glaciers, to reproduce recent evolution of the Ararat ice bodies. We found a measurable decrease of the area (− 2.38 km2, − 30% of the initial area, − 0.06 km2 year−1) of the Ararat glaciers, including loss of ice under debris covered tongue (− 1.99 km2, − 70% of the initial area), driven by significantly increasing temperature especially in spring (+ 0.05 °C year−1). Using our Poly-Ice model, we could (i) mechanistically reproduce the response of the glaciers to the changing climate patterns, (ii) confirm faster downwasting ever since the 1990s under increasing temperature, and (iii) highlight decreased winter snow cover at thaw at the highest altitudes ever since the 1990s, further driving ice melt. Such physically based tool will further allow to project forward the dynamics of these glaciers under future climate. Our results are fully consistent with the present know how of glaciers’ retreat from Europe to Caucasus, and Central and Southern Asia, and contribute to the ongoing discussion about retreating glaciers worldwide.