Purpose Considering the impact of the Free Trade Zone (FTZ) policy on forecasting the port cargo throughput, this paper constructs a fractional grey multivariate forecasting model to improve the prediction accuracy of port cargo throughput and realize the coordinated development of FTZ policymaking and port construction.Design/methodology/approach Considering the effects of data randomization, this paper proposes a novel self-adaptive grey multivariate prediction model, namely FDCGM(1,N). First, fractional-order accumulative generation operation (AGO) is introduced, which integrates the policy impact effect. Second, the heuristic grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm is used to determine the optimal nonlinear parameters. Finally, the novel model is then applied to port scale simulation and forecasting in Tianjin and Fujian where FTZs are situated and compared with three other grey models and two machine learning models.Findings In the Tianjin and Fujian cases, the new model outperforms the other comparison models, with the least mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of 6.07% and 4.16% in the simulation phase, and 6.70% and 1.63% in the forecasting phase, respectively. The results of the comparative analysis find that after the constitution of the FTZs, Tianjin’s port cargo throughput has shown a slow growth trend, and Fujian’s port cargo throughput has exhibited rapid growth. Further, the port cargo throughput of Tianjin and Fujian will maintain a growing trend in the next four years.Practical implications The new multivariable grey model can effectively reduce the impact of data randomness on forecasting. Meanwhile, FTZ policy has regional heterogeneity in port development, and the government can take different measures to improve the development of ports.Originality/value Under the background of FTZ policy, the new multivariable model can be used to achieve accurate prediction, which is conducive to determining the direction of port development and planning the port layout.

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the impact of seaport efficiency on economic growth in Ghana over the period 2006–2020.Design/methodology/approachComprehensive methodology, diverse data analysis techniques, including Augmented Dickey–Fuller tests, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modeling and Granger Causality, were applied to explore the intricate relationship between Seaport Efficiency and Economic Growth.FindingsThe findings reveal a statistically significant and positive association between seaport efficiency and GDP, underscoring the crucial role of efficient seaport operations in actively stimulating economic growth. Beyond seaport efficiency, influential factors such as capital, human capital, knowledge spillover and productive capacities were identified, contributing to the dynamics of economic growth.Research limitations/implicationsThe Granger Causality Test solidifies seaport efficiency as a robust predictor of GDP fluctuations, emphasizing its significance in economic forecasting. Notably, this study contributes to the existing body of knowledge with its nuanced exploration of the intricate relationship between seaport efficiency and economic growth in the specific context of Ghana.Practical implicationsThis study’s implications extend beyond academia, offering invaluable guidance for policymakers and planners. It serves as a comprehensive roadmap for informed decision-making, emphasizing the pivotal role of efficient seaports in charting a trajectory for enduring and resilient economic progress in the nation.Originality/valueWhile the broader theme has been explored in existing literature, the uniqueness of this study lies in its specific application to the Ghanaian context. The choice of Ghana, a nation where maritime transport handles over 90% of trade, underscores the significance of understanding seaport efficiency in this regional and economic setting. The study’s originality is reinforced by incorporating diverse economic variables, aligning with recommendations for a comprehensive analysis of factors influencing port performance.

PurposeThis study critically examines the transformative impact of the “North Sea TikTok” phenomenon on the marine tourism sector, emphasizing the role of employee training in fostering resilience and adaptability within marine economics and integrated marine systems. It delves into how viral social media trends influence marine tourism destinations, particularly the North Sea, affecting local economies, marine resource management and tourism strategies. By analyzing this trend, the paper seeks to uncover how marine tourism destinations can effectively respond to the challenges and opportunities presented by digital media-driven tourism.Design/methodology/approachEmploying a multidisciplinary framework that merges insights from digital marketing, risk perception in tourism and human resource management, this paper provides a comprehensive qualitative analysis of the “North Sea TikTok” trend. Through a meticulous content analysis of viral videos and an examination of user engagement metrics, alongside a thorough review of contemporary literature in marine tourism and sustainability, the study unpacks the far-reaching implications of social media on marine tourism ecosystems.FindingsThe analysis reveals that the “North Sea TikTok” trend has markedly altered public perceptions of the North Sea, catalyzing a shift toward adventure and risk-taking tourism. This pivot promises economic rejuvenation for local tourism sectors and necessitates agile marine management strategies to accommodate the evolving demands. Implementing innovative employee training programs focusing on safety protocols, environmental conservation and digital engagement is central to managing these dynamics. The paper emphasizes integrating sustainable practices to ensure the equitable growth of marine tourism economies and environmental preservation.Originality/valueThis paper pioneers exploring the nexus between social media trends and their operational and strategic impacts on marine tourism management and economics. Synthesizing social media's viral dynamics with marine tourism development introduces groundbreaking insights into adapting marine tourism strategies in the digital age. It emphasizes the critical need for a skilled workforce capable of navigating the complexities of digital trend-driven tourism markets, proposing a novel model for employee training that aligns with the shifting paradigms of marine tourism engagement. This unique contribution advances academic discourse in marine economics and provides practical frameworks for stakeholders aiming to harness social media trends for sustainable tourism development.

PurposeThis research establishes an evaluation index system and calculation method for the China's maritime power construction index (CMPCI). It has conducted practical tests on the progress of China's maritime power construction since the 12th–13th Five-Year Plans. This paper conducts a phased study on the construction of China's maritime power based on the CMPCI evaluation results; it expands the relevant achievements in the research field of quantitative research in China's maritime power construction. The verification results are consistent with the actual situation.Design/methodology/approachFully reflect the guiding role of national marine policies in the new development stage, guide the transformation of China's marine management model. The CMPCI is a quantitative evaluation of the overall development level of China's maritime power construction over a certain period of time. The CMPCI in this article aims to comprehensively reflect the changes in the construction of China's maritime power, strives to cover various fields it encompasses. This study focuses on objective statistical data analysis, supplemented by multisource data, to objectively and fairly measure the level of CMPCI.FindingsOriginality/valueIt fully reflects the highlights of marine science and technology, social democracy and strategic emerging industries. This research dynamically quantifies the trajectory of China's maritime power construction, synthetic reflecting the country's macroeconomic policy guiding function. Guiding the transformation of the marine resources utilization, marine economy development, marine scientific research and marine rights and interests maintenance and effectively serving the decision-making needs of the government.

PurposeThis study provides empirical evidence on the impact of the Panama Canal expansion (PCE) on the economies of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, particularly in light of the emergence of larger container ships such as neo-Panamax and post-Panamax vessels.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses the Bayesian structural time Series (BSTS) model to evaluate the economic effects of the PCE on 21 countries within the LAC region. It utilized the World Bank's gross domestic product (GDP) figures between 2000 and 2019 as the primary variable, alongside the human development index (HDI) (X1), container throughput (TEU) (X2) and unemployment rates (UNEMPL) (X3) covariates. This allowed a precise and robust approach to analyzing time series data while accounting for uncertainties and allowing the inclusion of various components and external factors.FindingsThe findings revealed that the PCE has a positive and statistically significant impact on most countries within the Caribbean Transshipment Triangle, ranging from 9.2% in Belize to 46% in Cuba. This suggests that the causal effect of the PCE on regional economies was not confined to any specific type of economy or geographical location within the LAC region. Where the growth rates were statistically insignificant, primarily in some Latin American countries, it coincided with countries that are primarily driven by exports and service industries, where bulk and oil tanker vessels are likely to be the main carriers for exports rather than container vessels.Originality/valueThe practical implications of this research are crucial for various stakeholders in the maritime industry and economic planning. The factors influencing economic growth resulting from investing in maritime activities are vital for decision-makers to create policies that lead to positive outcomes and sustainable development in regions and countries with flourishing maritime industries. The methodology and findings have significant implications for governments, managers, professionals, policy-makers and investors.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the internal interaction mechanism of marine scientific research and education, industrial structure upgrading and marine economic growth from a systematic perspective, based on which this work forecasts their future development trends.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, a multivariate grey model is applied to the prediction of marine scientific research and education, industrial structure upgrading and marine economic growth. Considering the impact of the COVID-19 on marine development, this paper introduces the weakening buffer operator into MGM(1,m) and constructs the AWBO-MGM(1,m) model. To verify the validity and accuracy of the new model, this paper uses AWBO-MGM(1,m), MGM(1,m), GM(1,N), GM(1,1), back propagation neural network and linear regression models for simulation and prediction based on the data from 2010 to 2021, respectively.FindingsFrom the theoretical perspective, the development of marine scientific research and education can accelerate industrial upgrading and promote marine economic growth by providing high-quality talents, promoting marine science and technology progress and reducing transaction costs; while the upgrading of marine industrial structure and marine economic growth can promote the development of marine scientific research and education by guiding social capital, enhancing talent demand and stimulating market vitality. From the empirical analysis, the AWBO-MGM(1,m) model can effectively deal with epidemic shocks and has higher fitting and prediction accuracy than the other five comparative models.Practical implicationsThe government should pay attention to the construction of marine scientific research and education, so as to provide high-quality talents and advanced scientific research results for the high-quality development of marine economy. On the basis of using science and technology to firmly build the primary and secondary marine industries, the government should actively guide the labor, capital and other factors of production to the tertiary industry, thereby promoting the optimization and upgrading of marine industrial structure.Originality/valueOn the one hand, the interplay mechanism of marine scientific research and education, industrial structure upgrading and marine economic growth is analyzed from a systematic perspective; on the other hand, the enhanced AWBO-MGM(1,m) possesses higher forecasting performance and is applicable to the systemic multivariate forecasting problem in the presence of outstanding external shocks.

PurposeThis study aims to explore the need for highly technological complexes for control and monitoring, as well as, new concepts and methodologies for maritime resource exploration and exploitation, which are in great demand nowadays.Design/methodology/approachThis paper provides an analysis of demand, means of creation and development of the methodology and infrastructure for global monitoring, pollution control and supervision of smart systems for activities in exploration, future resource exploitation in deep-water and coastal areas based on Smarthub architecture, Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS), Continuous Acquisition and Life-Cycle Support (CALS) and Blockchain technologies.FindingsObservational, experimental, simulation, derivational, hybrid descriptive and analytical models, as well as, surrogate models were created, analyzed and implemented for assigned tasks realization. Concept of distributed system for marine environmental monitoring, control and supervising as pilot technology in the context of Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) 3–5 was designed and evaluated.Originality/valueThe activities described in this article should be realized in the design and development of a complex, reliable, robust and sustainable monitoring and inspection system for the control and evaluation of the impact and risk assessment of the exploration and future exploitation of maritime resources.

PurposeThis study aims to explore the risk level of pufferfish and lionfish by comparing them among Turkish marines. In addition, this study focuses on comparing pufferfish with lionfish to determine which one is more dangerous for marine economics in Türkiye.Design/methodology/approachThis study employs descriptive content analysis to give some qualitative evidence for the related literature. As a sample case, Türkiye was selected in the context of being a country in the Mediterranean Basin. By reviewing recent news, reports and publications, this study firstly will conclude how invasive alien marine species affect Turkish marines. Then, pufferfish and lionfish will be compared together to determine the risk level of these species for Turkish marine economics.FindingsAs a result of descriptive findings, it is seen that captured fishery has been declined in Turkey recently due to many factors including climate change, global warming, overfishing, environmental pollution and attack of invasive alien species. Pufferfish and lionfish are seen as the most spread marine species in Turkish marines. When comparing pufferfish with lionfish, it is seen that pufferfish is more dangerous than lionfish for Turkish marine economics.Research limitations/implicationsThis study provides descriptive and original findings as a result of comparison of pufferfish and lionfish due to their impact on Turkish marine economy. It is thought to give useful importation for the fight against invasive alien marine species in the Mediterranean Basin. Future studies can investigate different invasive alien marine species and their impacts on marine economics in the Mediterranean Basin.Practical implicationsBased on the Turkish cases, it is determined that there should be different policies for fight against invasive alien marine species in the Mediterranean Sea. Each marine species has different impacts on seafood market. Some of marine species can be consumed as a seafood product but some of them can't be consumed that policy makers should develop other strategies such as catching them to reduce their population in the local marines.Social implicationsThe spread of invasive alien marine species is still continuing in the Mediterranean Basin. Each country has been affected by the attack of invasive alien marine species. To keep sustainable seafood market and marine economics, countries should both implement common policies and develop policies specific to threats in their own countries.Originality/valueThis study reveals key points in the rise of invasive alien marine species in Turkish marines at first. The main contribution of this study is to be a recent sample for a country which is under attack by invasive alien marine species by giving a comparison of pufferfish and lionfish.

PurposeThe purposes of this research are to study the theory and method of multi-attribute index system design and establish a set of systematic, standardized, scientific index systems for the design optimization and inspection process. The research may form the basis for a rational, comprehensive evaluation and provide the most effective way of improving the quality of management decision-making. It is of practical significance to improve the rationality and reliability of the index system and provide standardized, scientific reference standards and theoretical guidance for the design and construction of the index system.Design/methodology/approachUsing modern methods such as complex networks and machine learning, a system for the quality diagnosis of index data and the classification and stratification of index systems is designed. This guarantees the quality of the index data, realizes the scientific classification and stratification of the index system, reduces the subjectivity and randomness of the design of the index system, enhances its objectivity and rationality and lays a solid foundation for the optimal design of the index system.FindingsBased on the ideas of statistics, system theory, machine learning and data mining, the focus in the present research is on “data quality diagnosis” and “index classification and stratification” and clarifying the classification standards and data quality characteristics of index data; a data-quality diagnosis system of “data review – data cleaning – data conversion – data inspection” is established. Using a decision tree, explanatory structural model, cluster analysis, K-means clustering and other methods, classification and hierarchical method system of indicators is designed to reduce the redundancy of indicator data and improve the quality of the data used. Finally, the scientific and standardized classification and hierarchical design of the index system can be realized.Originality/valueThe innovative contributions and research value of the paper are reflected in three aspects. First, a method system for index data quality diagnosis is designed, and multi-source data fusion technology is adopted to ensure the quality of multi-source, heterogeneous and mixed-frequency data of the index system. The second is to design a systematic quality-inspection process for missing data based on the systematic thinking of the whole and the individual. Aiming at the accuracy, reliability, and feasibility of the patched data, a quality-inspection method of patched data based on inversion thought and a unified representation method of data fusion based on a tensor model are proposed. The third is to use the modern method of unsupervised learning to classify and stratify the index system, which reduces the subjectivity and randomness of the design of the index system and enhances its objectivity and rationality.