Abstract Japan’s security posture shows rising tension between political elites advocating proactive defense and the legal and material constraints. Existing scholarship is often divided into two perspectives. One expects inevitable remilitarization from a realist perspective, while the other emphasizes consistent norms from constructivism. However, mechanisms linking these views are rarely well-developed. This study introduces the concept of “securitization without militarization,” using semantic network analysis and topic modeling of 1,974 Diet transcripts to trace the discursive evolution of security debates. The findings suggest that political actors effectively construct existential threats to legitimize material policy shifts, while meticulously avoiding militaristic rhetoric to preserve the state’s ontological security. This study contributes to the literature by highlighting how states can perform discursive securitization within institutional and normative constraints, thereby expanding the empirical scope of securitization theory to legally, institutionally, and normatively constrained middle powers.

Abstract This article employs the relational power approach to explain the essence and dynamics of China–Vietnam relations. The bilateral relationship between these two neighboring communist states has remained relatively stable since their diplomatic normalization in 1991. Vietnam has regarded China as a top priority in its foreign policy, despite historical legacies and lingering territorial conflicts in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, China has, at times, tolerated Vietnam’s defiant and confrontational actions during conflicts. Notably, interactions between the two sides frequently restore swiftly following such conflicts. This phenomenon cannot be fully explained by existing hard and soft power theories. The relational power theoretical framework provides three main propositions for explaining China–Vietnam interactions, including prioritizing long-term stability over immediate and apparent material gains, balancing expectations to sustain stability, and a preemptive effect that constrains both sides’ actions. This approach provides a nuanced understanding of their enduring yet complex relationship.

Abstract Why do states prematurely withdraw from multinational military operations? While existing explanations emphasize domestic politics, coalition dynamics, and battlefield conditions, this article identifies leadership insecurity as a key driver of premature withdrawal from ongoing military coalitions. When coups or severe civil wars threaten incumbents' survival, leaders redirect finite military and political resources inward to bolster regime security, making sustained overseas deployments untenable. An analysis of coalition participation from 1950 to 2001 shows that states facing coups or intensified civil conflict are significantly more likely to defect from ongoing missions. The study contributes to the literature by centering leadership survival as a determinant of coalition reliability and by disaggregating coalition types to show how institutional design shapes the costs and feasibility of withdrawal. The findings carry important policy implications for anticipating defection risks and designing more resilient coalitions, especially outside consolidated democracies.

Abstract Numerous recent studies find that democratic institutions moderate the impact of domestic political turnover on foreign policy. As such, for many foreign policy outcomes, domestic turnover has little or no impact in democracies. I consider whether this finding holds as political polarization increases. Polarization might lead voters to place less value on compromise with other political actors, freeing leaders to advance policy interests that would be considered riskier in less polarized environments. I test this expectation using the Change in Source of Leader Support database, measures of party and affective polarization, and data on states’ voting positions in the United Nations. Across a range of statistical models, I find only weak suggestive evidence that party polarization reduces the constraining impact of democracy. The findings speak to ongoing debates over the role played by democratic institutions in conditioning how and when political competition within countries translates into foreign policy change.

Abstract This research note argues for an increased dialogue between anti-gender politics research and feminist foreign policy analysis. Traditionally, comparative politics and sociology have examined anti-gender politics within the context of democratic backsliding and social movements, often incorporating transnational aspects, but rarely applying foreign policy analysis. The increasing prevalence of political leaders invoking illiberal gender norms in foreign and security policy, to position their political system in the global “culture wars,” warrants further cross-pollination between foreign policy analysis and over a decade of anti-gender research. To demonstrate this, this research note considers Russia’s use of “traditional values” in its foreign policy to justify authoritarianism and the use of force. The findings suggest that alongside the rise of feminist foreign policy, there is a parallel emergence of an anti-feminist foreign policy. More disciplinary dialogue is crucial for comprehensively grasping the global impact of anti-gender politics, especially regarding increased de-democratization and aggression.

Abstract Both education and subnational governments have been stereotyped as promoting cooperation and soft power in international relations. In 2023, however, the US state of Florida banned many Chinese researchers from its public universities, demonstrating that subnational governments can use educational policies to take hostile stances on international questions. To understand why subnational governments might use their prerogatives in this fashion, I use a multi-method approach to explore how policies restricting international ties may be demanded in a federal system and their potential effects. Survey data show that Americans who view China as a threat substantially favor limiting educational exchanges with China. San Francisco’s 1905–1907 segregation of Japanese students demonstrates how public demand for municipal actions produced a confrontation that strained US relations with a rising foreign power. Two pre-registered survey experiments demonstrate that neither federal disapproval nor Chinese warnings about diplomatic consequences arising from measures like Florida’s significantly reduce public support.

Abstract This article argues that business elite perceptions significantly shape state-level economic hedging behavior toward rising powers. Why? When business elite perceptions shift from gains to losses, business elites become more risk-acceptant and willing to support stricter economic policies, even at the cost of potential retaliation. Paradoxically, compared to the richness of conceptualizations of hedging, how domestic actors influence hedging in the field of foreign economic policies has received scant attention. Yet, perceptions of these actors change and are consequential. Building on insights from prospect theory, this article develops a typological theoretical framework elucidating the mechanisms of how and when business elite perceptions influence a state’s foreign economic policy choices toward a rising power. The findings draw on empirical evidence from the case of Germany’s economic policies toward China between 2014 and 2021. The article advances the hedging literature by clarifying the factors that influence the evolution of economic hedging outcomes.

Abstract This study argues that the scale of disaster relief aid provided by donor countries is significantly influenced by the extent to which natural disasters impact their supply chain trade (SCT). The core claim states that when disasters disrupt SCT, donor countries are motivated to provide substantial aid to facilitate the restoration of vital economic ties. Through a combination of quantitative analysis and comparative case study of Japan’s responses to disasters in Thailand and Vietnam, this study demonstrates that decisions to offer aid are not driven solely by humanitarian concerns but also by the strategic importance of maintaining economic flows. Furthermore, this analysis highlights the influence of corporate interest in SCT restoration on government policies, thereby explaining variations in aid patterns. This study provides a new perspective on the influence of economic interdependence on foreign aid behavior during times of crisis.

Abstract This study examines how conflictual or cooperative policies toward rival countries affect domestic political approval, focusing on contexts with multiple rivals. I argue that the effects of conflictual or cooperative policies on leadership approval vary depending on rival’s threat levels and their salience. I hypothesize that the public is more likely to support leaders adopting conflictual policies toward more significant threats compared to lesser ones. For cooperation, I explore competing expectations based on salience levels and future gain calculations. Using Japan as a case study, I employ a mixed-methods approach combining a survey experiment and time-series analysis to test our hypotheses. Results support the hypotheses based on territorial rivals' salience levels. The public shows higher approval for conflictual policies toward more threatening rivals (e.g., China) compared to less salient ones (e.g., South Korea). Cooperation with more salient rivals significantly influences approval ratings, while interactions with less salient rivals have minimal impact. These findings contribute to literature on rivalries, territorial disputes, and public opinion by highlighting the importance of considering multiple rivalries in understanding domestic political consequences of foreign policy choices.

Abstract Recent research demonstrates that there exists significant variation in the number of refugees that civil wars generate. We believe that two types of sanctions play a nontrivial role in partly explaining this variation. We argue that imposed military sanctions have a negative impact on the flow of refugees, as these sanctions reduce warring parties’ ability and willingness to use violence against civilians to achieve their political objectives. The constraints on critical revenues caused by economic sanctions, however, increase refugee flows, as they compel targets to replenish lost income using violence and exploitation of civilian populations. Using mediation analysis, we find that each sanction type has the expected effect on refugee flows via their impact on violence against civilians.