Abstract This study examines the U.S.–China strategic competition through the lens of “overstretch,” applying and modifying Paul Kennedy’s conception of imperial overstretch to the contemporary geopolitical context. It argues that both superpowers are caught in a dilemma between overstretch and understretch, opting for continual expansion to preserve or gain a competitive advantage. The Pacific Islands serve as a case study to illustrate how each side seeks to induce excessive security expenditures by the other. China’s engagement with the Solomon Islands has triggered expanded U.S. diplomatic and financial commitments, while the U.S. military buildup in Australia has spurred increased Chinese activities in Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu. These actions reveal a mutual cost-imposition strategy driven by uncertainty and strategic asymmetry. Although the study does not definitively prove intentional overstretch inducement, it highlights sequential interactions suggesting such intent. The findings underline the risks of unchecked expansion and the need for cost-effective strategic planning in a protracted non-zero-sum rivalry.

Abstract This article explores how changes in middle-class dynamics and leadership strategies have influenced Myanmar’s path toward democratization, both before and after the 2021 military coup. It centers on a key research question: How have shifts in the middle class and elite decision-making shaped the country’s democratic trajectory across these two periods? This question leads to a broader concern: What explains the strength — or weakness — of the middle class as a force for democracy under different authoritarian and semi-democratic conditions? The answer lies in the middle class’s role as a bridge between the elite and the lower classes. Whether it acts as a strong democratic force depends on several factors: the space it has to mobilize politically, its level of independence from the state, and its access to economic and cultural resources. When authoritarian regimes try to consolidate power or erode democratic institutions, a resilient middle class can resist by using its influence to defend democratic values. However, if the middle class becomes reliant on the regime or is drawn into its network of control, it may turn passive — or even supportive of authoritarian rule. In Myanmar’s case, before the 2021 coup, the middle class generally supported liberal reforms, focusing on securing rights, legal protections, and upward mobility. After the coup, however, many in the middle class shifted roles, becoming a key force in resisting military rule and supporting the Civil Disobedience Movement. To examine these developments, the study applies a dual analytical framework: Historical Institutionalism, to trace how past institutional legacies and turning points shaped current dynamics; and Strategic Choice Theory, to understand how political actors made decisions within those constraints.

Abstract This paper argues that the Russo-Ukrainian War, having exposed the limitations of the European Union’s Eastern Partnership (EaP), necessitates a strategic expansion of its framework into Central Asia. Employing a synthesized theoretical lens of neorealism and geopolitics, the study analyzes the EaP’s mixed legacy and the competing strategies of Russia, China, and the United States in the region. Findings indicate that expanding the EaP is a strategic imperative for the EU to diversify energy sources, secure geopolitical relevance in Eurasia, and provide a more concrete geo-economic framework than its current Central Asia strategy. The paper concludes by proposing specific policy guidelines for a differentiated, connectivity-focused “EaP+CA“ model. This evolution of the EU’s Ostpolitik transforms a geographically-contained neighborhood policy into a broader Eurasian connectivity strategy, positioning the EU as a pivotal actor in a contested geopolitical space.

Abstract This study examines the consumption expenditure of rural agricultural households in Bangladesh on livestock products, utilizing a unique and comprehensive country-level household survey panel dataset from the ‘Bangladesh Climate Change Adaptation Survey’ conducted in 2010 and 2012. It analyzes various types of shocks and socioeconomic variables affecting the trends in household expenditure on livestock products. Among the 800 households surveyed, the study focuses on 724 households, approximately 70% of which reported expenditures on livestock products in both years on average. Fixed-effects regression models were employed to investigate the impact of these attributes on expenditure patterns associated with livestock product consumption. In addition to negative shocks, the model included a range of relevant socioeconomic characteristics. Regression analysis and descriptive statistics indicate that households engaged in farming tend to have lower expenditures on livestock products, despite higher consumption, compared to non-farming households.

Abstract This study empirically examines the impact of deep trade agreements on wages amid increasing non-tariff measures in global trade. Using Two-Stage Least Squares, we analyze how specific provisions in deep trade agreements affect trade and, subsequently, how trade influences wages across occupational categories in Korea. Our findings show that Transparency, SPS, and GATS provisions enhance trade, while Export Taxes, TBT, STE, AD, Public Procurement, and TRIM s provisions reduce it. Deep trade agreements may increase wage inequality, with director-level positions uniquely affecting wage growth. This research offers insights for policymakers considering market access reinforcement in trade agreements. As the first empirical analysis using South Korean data, this study addresses a significant research gap, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of how deep trade agreements impact wages in the context of evolving global trade dynamics.

Abstract This study explores a shift in governance focus from state security to addressing insecurities within states, particularly through the lens of human fragility. Traditional state-centric approaches often build strong states without adequately safeguarding the most vulnerable populations. The research recalibrates the concept of fragility by asking not “which state is fragile,” but “for whom is the state fragile?” Utilizing documentary research, the study examines the governance responses of Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Malaysia to the Rohingya crisis following the military crackdown in August 2017. The analysis reveals that even stable states can fail to protect vulnerable individuals, highlighting the fragility experienced by stateless populations like the Rohingya, who are often left without basic services or protection from their host countries.

Abstract The power projection of Taiwan/the Republic of China (ROC) is constrained by many factors, including its geographical setting. In this context, it matters to investigate whether ROC geopolitical agents (GA s) are taking sufficient steps to transform potential into power, thereby ensuring the resilience of the society. We hypothesize that the role of GA s may be of greater weight in foreign policy outcomes than the literature on structural approaches suggests. As an alternative to conventional wisdom, this paper examines the policies of ROC related to overcoming vulnerabilities in potential. Our analysis shows that although ROC GA s have been working to overcome such vulnerabilities, their approach has not been successful for two main reasons: firstly, measures taken so far have not been designed to face the scenario of a complete blockade of Taiwan and, secondly, these GA s do not wish to be perceived by the public as overreacting to military threats.

Abstract This study examines the influence of international trade and environmental agreements on national environmental legislation in China, Japan, and South Korea. Employing time-series analysis and Granger causality tests, it investigates how free trade agreements (FTA s) with environmental provisions and international environmental agreements (IEA s) shape domestic regulatory frameworks. Key findings reveal that while IEA s often have limited immediate impacts on national legislation, their delayed effects are evident in countries like South Korea. Conversely, FTA s with robust environmental provisions demonstrate both direct and sustained correlations with domestic legal reforms across all three nations. The study also highlights the interplay between trade liberalization and environmental governance, with mixed results emphasizing the role of national context. Japan exhibits a bidirectional relationship between trade-environment indices and legislative action, while China and South Korea show varied responsiveness to international pressures.