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  • New
  • Open Access Icon
  • Research Article
  • 10.1007/s10479-026-07071-7
Assessing climate risk on the European financial system: a multi-scenario Analysis
  • Feb 7, 2026
  • Annals of Operations Research
  • Gianandrea Giacchetta + 2 more

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of climate risk on the stability of the European financial system, with a particular focus on both transition and physical risk dimensions. Given the long-term and uncertain nature of climate-related risks, traditional econometric methods often fall short in capturing their systemic implications. To address this challenge, we develop a scenario-based framework grounded in realistic projections consistent to the theoretical framework of the Network for Greening the Financial System (“NGFS”), encompassing three climate pathways: orderly transition, disorderly transition, and hot house world. We model the relationship between climate risk drivers, European companies, and the financial system using vine copulas, enabling a flexible representation of complex dependencies. The effects of these scenarios on financial institutions are evaluated through key risk metrics (expected return, value at risk, and expected shortfall) conditioned on each climate scenario. Our results offer insights into how climate transition risks propagate through the financial system, with practical implications for financial stability assessment and systemic risk management. The primary contribution lies in integrating both transition and physical climate risks into a coherent and tractable risk assessment framework, offering valuable tools for policymakers, regulators, and financial practitioners. Results show a significant dependence of European financial system to brown companies and, thus, sizable losses in the disorderly transition scenario.

  • New
  • Research Article
  • 10.1007/s10479-026-07072-6
Does uncertainty always harm the creditor’s interest?
  • Feb 7, 2026
  • Annals of Operations Research
  • Sami Ben Jabeur + 3 more

  • New
  • Open Access Icon
  • Research Article
  • 10.1007/s10479-025-06983-0
Optimizing and visualizing dynamic service performance for airspace users to enable safe and efficient urban air mobility in Dubai
  • Feb 6, 2026
  • Annals of Operations Research
  • Ali Cheaitou + 12 more

Abstract Recent advancements in technology have broadened the capabilities of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in urban areas. However, the increase in UAV activities in low-altitude airspace brings substantial risks to people, structures, and other air traffic, necessitating regulated air traffic movements and thorough airspace information services for users. This study specifically aims to create and optimize an operational concept for managing UAV traffic in cities with high-rise buildings, focusing on Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. The concept includes UAV airspace design and operating heights and incorporates a grid system aligned with Dubai’s Road networks to avoid collisions. To maximize profitability and manage traffic load efficiently, two mathematical models are developed, and a genetic algorithm is proposed for solving large-scale instances. The concept’s efficacy in regulating UAV air traffic and its impact on service performance due to airspace constraints are validated through simulation using Dubai’s maps and building heights. This research, a collaboration involving international and national academic, industrial, and governmental entities, addresses the gap in research on UAV operations in densely populated urban areas and lays the foundation for further enhancements in UAV routing models.

  • New
  • Research Article
  • 10.1007/s10479-026-07053-9
Integrated machine learning framework for dynamic portfolio management: clustering, forecasting, and optimization
  • Feb 6, 2026
  • Annals of Operations Research
  • Hossein Dastkhan + 2 more

  • New
  • Open Access Icon
  • Research Article
  • 10.1007/s10479-025-07023-7
“Why do we need them?”: Digital technologies and small and medium-sized enterprises’ performance
  • Feb 6, 2026
  • Annals of Operations Research
  • Raquel C Garcia + 3 more

Abstract In an increasingly digitalized world, enterprises that neglect to adapt and innovate risk losing their competitive edge and lagging behind industry trends. Recognizing the unique challenges that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) encounter in this transformative process, there is a pressing need for an evaluation system to aid decision-making regarding digital technology factors that can enhance the performance of these firms. This study employs a multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach that integrates cognitive mapping and the Best–Worst Method (BWM) to systematically identify evaluation criteria and their intricate interactions. To ensure the relevance and applicability of the research findings, a panel of experts was recruited from among professionals with knowledge and experience in this area, who were able to provide added value to the research. The results include a proposed decision-support model, the practical potential of which was discussed and validated by both the panel members and a project manager from COTEC Portugal—a leading think-and-action network dedicated to advancing technology diffusion and business innovation cooperation. Due to its process-oriented nature, this research contributes to bridging the gap between theoretical insights and practical applications. Its contributions and limitations are also analyzed, offering valuable insights for researchers, practitioners and policymakers alike. Overall, this comprehensive and unique approach addresses the critical need for understanding the nuanced interplay between digital technologies and SME performance in today’s dynamic business environment.

  • New
  • Research Article
  • 10.1007/s10479-025-07022-8
Certified emission reductions asset pledge financing strategy and biform game-based coordination mechanism in a supply chain: Implications for SDGs
  • Feb 4, 2026
  • Annals of Operations Research
  • Ran Li + 3 more

  • New
  • Research Article
  • 10.1007/s10479-026-07030-2
Liquidity and volatility nexus in cryptocurrency markets
  • Feb 4, 2026
  • Annals of Operations Research
  • Angelo Forino + 1 more

  • New
  • Research Article
  • 10.1007/s10479-026-07055-7
Data-driven approach under varying operating conditions for bearing fault diagnosis
  • Feb 2, 2026
  • Annals of Operations Research
  • Sandeep S Udmale + 3 more

  • New
  • Research Article
  • 10.1007/s10479-026-07048-6
Exploring determinants of network stochastic dominance ratios: a causal approach using explainable AI
  • Feb 2, 2026
  • Annals of Operations Research
  • Jurgita Černevičienė + 2 more

  • New
  • Research Article
  • 10.1007/s10479-026-07059-3
Reducing School Bus Fleets: A Targeted Incentive Approach for Efficient Transportation in a Bus Driver Shortage Context
  • Jan 30, 2026
  • Annals of Operations Research
  • Hernan Caceres + 4 more