ABSTRACT This study examined the level of households’ resilience to food insecurity and its determinants using cross-sectional data collected from 382 sample households. The outcome of households’ resilience status to food insecurity was estimated using a two-stage process. In the first stage, each latent variable, variables used for resilience estimation, was estimated directly from observable variables. In the second stage, the estimated values of these variables as an index were used to estimate the resilience index for each household. The ordinary least square regression model was used to identify factors that influence the status of households’ resilience to food insecurity. Accordingly, the results of the study indicate that 56.28% of the sample households suffered from current food insecurity and 53.4% of the total households were non-resilient to the current food insecurity shock. In addition, fertiliser use, pesticide use, veterinary services, cultivated land size, livestock owned, early warning information, frequency of assistance, household dietary diversity score and per capita income were the major factors (positively) affecting household resilience to food insecurity. On the other hand, dependency ratio, job lost and the household food insecurity access scale have increased the probability of being non-resilient to food insecurity. Therefore, the findings of this study reveal that unless sound and well-planned intervention is implemented, most households might quickly find their resilience status worsening. Moreover, enhancing capability aspects should be the primary goal of any interventions aimed at increasing households’ resilience in the country in general and the study area in particular.

ABSTRACT This study examines the influence of land consolidation for large-scale agricultural investments (LSAIs) on commercialisation of smallholder agriculture in the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT). Grounded in market integration and diffusion of innovation theories, it compares agricultural outcomes between villages affected by LSAIs and those unaffected, focusing on land cultivation, technology adoption, productivity, and perceived commercial orientation. Using structured surveys, data were collected from 180 maize-producing smallholder farmers across six villages (three with LSAIs, three without). The study is predominantly descriptive, laying groundwork for more complex analytical studies that may explore causal relationships. Results indicate that smallholders in villages affected by LSAIs exhibit several positive shifts: higher adoption of modern technologies (e.g., tractors (16.9% vs. 3.6%), purchased seeds (62.2% vs. 49.4%), inorganic fertilisers (80% vs. 70.4%)), and pesticides (64% vs. 37.9%), improved access to storage facilities (55.7% vs. 40.2%), higher productivity (8.9 vs. 5.4 bags/acre), and stronger perceived commercial orientation (63% vs. 35%). Despite these gains, smallholder farmers in villages affected by LSAIs cultivate marginally less land (3.8 vs. 4.2 acres) amid higher shortages, demonstrating a greater reliance on title deeds (34.1% vs. 15.9%). While LSAIs serve as catalysts for smallholder commercialisation by enhancing efficiency and market linkages, they exacerbate land inequalities and displacement risks if safeguards are not implemented. These findings underscore the need for inclusive policies and balanced approaches that harness positive spillovers while ensuring equitable and sustainable commercialisation. The study recommends further research that employs causal methods to quantify long-term impacts on commercialisation trajectories.

ABSTRACT The study examined the presence of asymmetric price transmission among selected rice markets in Malawi. Using the World Bank’s monthly price data compiled from various markets from 2007 to 2024, the study applied the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL) to capture both short-term and long-term asymmetric price transmission among rice markets. The results show that Malawi's rice prices maintain steady long-term relationships, with prices reverting to equilibrium after a shock. Evidence of asymmetry is present in certain market pairs, such as Mzuzu-Nkhotakota and Blantyre, as well as other markets. Rice price transmission to Blantyre and other markets exhibits both long-term and short-term asymmetry. In the long run, price increases from supply hubs like Mzuzu are transmitted more strongly than decreases, showing traders’ tendency to secure profits during price rises. In the short run, Blantyre reacts more quickly to positive price shocks from Karonga and Dwangwa, highlighting the influence of expectations and opportunistic trading on price movements. While this study cannot conclusively identify the underlying causes of asymmetric price transmission due to its reliance on price data, future research should consider incorporating data on trade flows, transaction costs, and trader behaviour to clarify the mechanisms behind these asymmetries. In the meantime, policy responses that diversify supply sources from upland rice cultivation and strengthen market linkages are essential to enhance market efficiency and integration. To further enhance price stability and efficiency in Malawi's rice markets, effective market integration and policy interventions should depend on an understanding of both short- and long-run price dynamics.

ABSTRACT In 2016/17, the Government of Zimbabwe launched the Targeted Command Agriculture Program (TCAP), a specialised contract farming initiative aimed at addressing the decline in maize productivity by providing farmers with input support. This study investigates the impact of TCAP on maize productivity and profitability among A1 and A2 farmers, using Mutare District as a case study. A multistage sampling technique was employed, resulting in a final sample of 350 farmers. To assess the programme’s impact, the study utilised Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to compare maize productivity and profitability between programme participants and non-participants. The findings indicate that participation in TCAP significantly increased maize productivity by 0.93 tonnes per hectare, with the effect being statistically significant at the 1% level. However, the programme did not have a statistically significant effect on profitability. In fact, participation in TCAP was associated with a reduction in profit, with average losses amounting to |USD 1,069.65. To enhance the profitability of farmers, the study recommends that the government align the currency used for loan inputs with the currency in which farmers receive their payments (a combination of RTGS and USD), as the RTGS component is frequently eroded by inflation.

ABSTRACT This study examines the impact of the land certification programme on migration using 10-year interval household panel data in Ethiopia using the difference-in-differences (DID) approach. Our estimation results indicate that the land certification programme has no significant impact on the participation of seasonal, non-seasonal migration, and rural wage earners. However, for households with initial expectations of land redistribution before the programme, the certificate has a negative effect on non-seasonal migration. This finding suggests the importance of complementary efforts to change people’s perceptions of land tenure security when implementing a land registration and certification programme.

ABSTRACT This study examines factors affecting the productivity of root crops in Ethiopia using the dynamic system generalised method of moments (GMM) approach on the pseudo-panel data constructed from the Ethiopian annual agricultural survey (2003–2021). Empirical results show that the historic yield of the root crops positively and significantly affects the current output, indicating the path dependence in productivity. Among the primary agricultural inputs, improved seeds significantly increase the performance of the root crop, with 1% increasing in the usage of this input rises yield by 0.098%. Conversely, expanding cultivated area and the increased use of oxen show unexpected negative effects on the output. Ethiopian agricultural households who focus on specialising in crop production are 9.84% higher yield gainers than those majoring in livestock or mixed agricultural systems. The application of some organic fertilisers also positively affects yields, which contributes to an increase in 15.57%, while natural fertiliser use shows a negative impact. In addition, contour ploughing significantly increases the productivity of the root crop, with an average of 11.24%. Interestingly, conventional farm management practises and institutional/policies have not shown any statistically significant effect on root crop output.

ABSTRACT The Indonesian government has allocated village funds to enhance food security; however, inefficiencies persist due to inaccuracies in beneficiary data, mismanagement of funds, and unequal distribution of aid. This qualitative study investigates these challenges through interviews, observations, and document analysis conducted with village heads, aid recipients, and facilitators over a four-month period. The findings indicate that overlapping beneficiary data, inadequate leadership, and external influences significantly impede the effective utilisation of village funds. Furthermore, inconsistencies in aid distribution and limited financial literacy among village officials diminish the overall impact of food security programmes. To address these issues, this study highlights the necessity of establishing an integrated beneficiary database, enhancing transparency in fund allocation, and implementing capacity-building programmes for village leaders. Strengthening monitoring mechanisms and fostering coordination between governmental agencies and local communities are imperative to improving the effectiveness of food security initiatives in rural areas.

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the relationship between logistics performance and agricultural exports in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using dynamic panel data from 2012 to 2022, we examine the impact of various components of logistics performance on aggregate agricultural exports. We also analyse how logistics performance affects exports in agricultural subsectors. Our results show that improvements in logistics infrastructure, customs procedures, and international shipping services significantly increase agricultural export performance. The food and live animals subsector benefits the most, followed by crude materials and animal and vegetable oils and fats subsectors. We also find that financial development, foreign direct investment, and world demand are important drivers of agricultural exports in Sub-Saharan Africa. We include institutional quality indicators in our analysis for robustness checks, showing that governance factors also play a significant role in boosting exports. These findings highlight the need for targeted investment in logistics and complementary economic policies, supported by good governance, to harness the region's agricultural export potential and promote sustainable economic development.

ABSTRACT This paper makes an empirical and methodological contribution to estimating the impact of failed support services, such as electricity, on agricultural value chains. Our research offers estimates of the effects of loadshedding (scheduled power outages) on three distinct agricultural value chains, along with strategies used to manage these disruptions. To compare the effects of loadshedding with a baseline of uninterrupted electricity supply, we utilise semi-structured interviews, a multi-market Partial Equilibrium (PE) model integrated with a farm-level financial simulation model (FinSim). This forward-looking, scenario-based approach overcomes a key limitation in existing studies, which typically assess either market outcomes or farm-level impacts in isolation. The modelling simulates how current loadshedding conditions could influence future production, profitability, and value chain performance under alternative assumptions. Our analysis highlights four key considerations. First, the reliance of value chains on Eskom for electricity affects operational continuity. Second, additional costs are internalised or passed on to upstream and downstream operators, putting pressure on firm and chain profitability. Some costs are also inadequately transferred to already vulnerable consumers. Third, production cycles lead to short-term disruptions and longer-term structural adjustments. Reduced demand for inputs or products within the chain can also result in underutilised facilities, increasing overhead costs and causing further disruptions. Lastly, adopting alternative energy sources at an extra cost negatively affects profitability, impacting capital access, equipment availability, affordability, and operational layout. Implementing mitigation strategies, such as investments in renewable energy infrastructure and incentives for energy efficiency, can help ensure a reliable power supply for agricultural activities.

ABSTRACT In 2023, between 713 and 757 million people experienced hunger globally, with Sub-Saharan Africa facing a prevalence of undernourishment at 20.4%. This study addresses the nutritional challenges affecting vulnerable groups, particularly women and young children, in eight African cities by modelling nutritionally adequate, economically affordable, and culturally acceptable diets. Our goal is to provide optimised diets for future consideration in food based national dietary guidelines for Ethiopia, Kenya, South Africa, and Uganda. We employ a mathematical programming approach to optimise diets, in order to achieve nutrient adequacy with minimal changes to current consumption patterns, under a budget constraint. The results show that nutritionally adequate diets are possible but often require dietary shifts, including increased intake of vegetables, fruits, and legumes, while moderately reducing the intake of cereals and, to a lesser extent, roots and tubers. Affordability remains a key constraint, some cities face larger tradeoffs than others, reflecting different levels of dietary diversity and purchasing power. Our discussion highlights the trade-off between cultural acceptability and economic affordability, suggesting that higher budgets may facilitate easier acceptance of dietary changes. Consequently, a focus on minimising food expenditures alone could compromise diet suitability by neglecting cultural acceptability. Lastly, we recommend a multifaceted policy approach to enhance frameworks for both demand and supply sides to achieve healthier diets.