Zonal Mean Research Articles

Assessment of trends in an integrated climate metric—analysis of 200 mbar zonal wind for the period 1958–2021

Using two reanalysis datasets on latitude bands of nearly equal area, we analyze the trend of 200 mbar zonal wind anomalies for the period 1958–2021 as well as annual-mean latitude of the zonal mean jet stream. We do not find much change of 200 mbar zonal wind in both two datasets although the increasing trend over the high latitude bands from 45 to 61°S for both datasets, and the decreasing trend in 0–5°N and 0–10°S for ERA5 are significant with small magnitudes. In addition, the polar jet core moves poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, but the movement is not statistically significant, while no poleward shift at all has occurred in the Southern Hemisphere. This work provides us a way to look for the long-term changes and variability in atmospheric circulation.

On the Relative Importance of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Drivers for the North Atlantic Jet Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events

Abstract Roughly two-thirds of the observed sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet in the North Atlantic, while the other events generally show a poleward shift. It is however not resolved which drivers lead to the large inter-event variability in the surface impact. Using an intermediate complexity atmospheric model, we analyze the contribution of different factors to the downward response: polar cap geopotential height anomalies in the lower stratosphere, downstream influence from the northeastern Pacific, and local tropospheric conditions in the North Atlantic at the time of the initial response. As in reanalysis, an equatorward shift of the North Atlantic jet is found to occur for two-thirds of SSWs in the model. We find that around 40% of the variance of the tropospheric jet response after SSW events can be explained by the lower stratosphere geopotential height anomalies, while around 25% can be explained by zonal wind anomalies over the northeastern Pacific region. Local Atlantic conditions at the time of the SSW onset are also found to contribute to the surface response. To isolate the role of the stratosphere from tropospheric variability, we use model experiments where the zonal mean stratospheric winds are nudged toward climatology. When stratospheric variability is suppressed, the Pacific influence is found to be weaker. These findings shed light on the contribution of the stratosphere to the diverse downward impacts of SSW events, and may help to improve the predictability of tropospheric jet variability in the North Atlantic.

Evaluating Long-Term Variability of the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex Simulated by CMIP6 Models

The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex is a key component of the climate system, which has significant impacts on surface temperatures in the mid-latitudes and polar regions. Therefore, understanding polar vortex variability is helpful for extended-range weather forecasting. The present study evaluates long-term changes in the position and strength of the polar vortex in the Arctic lower stratosphere during the winters from 1980/81 to 2013/14. Simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models are compared with Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA2) reanalysis dataset. Overall, the CMIP6 models well capture the spatial characteristics of the polar vortex with spatial correlation coefficients between the potential vorticity (PV) in the lower stratosphere from simulations and MERRA2 products generally greater than 0.85 for all CMIP6 models during winter. There is a good agreement in the position and shape of the polar vortex between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and MERRA2, although there exist differences between simulations of individual CMIP6 models. However, most CMIP6 models underestimate the strength of polar vortex in the lower stratosphere, with the largest negative bias up to about −20%. The present study further reveals that there is an anticorrelation between the polar vortex strength bias and area bias simulated by CMIP6 models. In addition, there is a positive correlation between the trend of EP-flux divergence for wavenumber one accumulated in early winter and the trend in zonal mean zonal wind averaged in late winter. As for the long-term change in polar vortex position, CanESM5, IPSL-CM5A2-INCA, UKESM1-0-LL, and IPSL-CM6A-LR well capture the persistent shift of polar vortex towards the Eurasian continent and away from North America in February, which has been reported in observations. These models reproduce the positive trend of wavenumber-1 planetary waves since the 1980s seen in the MERRA2 dataset. This suggests that realistic wave activity processes in CMIP6 models play a key role not only in the simulation of the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex but also in the simulation of the polar vortex position shift.

Global coarse-grained mesoscale eddy statistics based on integrated kinetic energy and enstrophy correlations

Abstract. Recently, Jánosi et al. (2019) introduced the concept of a “vortex proxy” based on an observation of strong correlations between integrated kinetic energy and integrated enstrophy over a large enough surface area. When mesoscale vortices are assumed to exhibit a Gaussian shape, the two spatial integrals have particularly simple functional forms, and a ratio of them defines an effective radius of a “proxy vortex”. In the original work, the idea was tested over a restricted area in the Californian Current System. Here we extend the analysis to global scale by means of 25 years of AVISO altimetry data covering the (ice-free) global ocean. The results are compared with a global vortex database containing over 64 million mesoscale eddies. We demonstrate that the proxy vortex representation of surface flow fields also works globally and provides a quick and reliable way to obtain coarse-grained vortex statistics. Estimated mean eddy sizes (effective radii) are extracted in very good agreement with the data from the vortex census. Recorded eddy amplitudes are directly used to infer the kinetic energy transported by the mesoscale vortices. The ratio of total and eddy kinetic energies is somewhat higher than found in previous studies. The characteristic westward drift velocities are evaluated by a time-lagged cross-correlation analysis of the kinetic energy fields. While zonal mean drift speeds are in good agreement with vortex trajectory evaluation in the latitude bands 30–5∘ S and 5–30∘ N, discrepancies are exhibited mostly at higher latitudes on both hemispheres. A plausible reason for somewhat different drift velocities obtained by eddy tracking and cross-correlation analysis is the fact that the drift of mesoscale eddies is only one component of the surface flow fields. Rossby wave activities, coherent currents, and other propagating features on the ocean surface apparently contribute to the zonal transport of kinetic energy.

Wavier jet streams driven by zonally asymmetric surface thermal forcing

Recent studies have argued that global warming is responsible for a wavier jet stream, thereby driving midlatitude extreme flooding and drought. Polar amplification-the relative enhancement of high-latitude temperatures under global warming-is argued to be the principal climate state driving midlatitude extremes. Namely, the decreased meridional temperature gradient suppresses the mean zonal winds, leading to wavier midlatitude jets. However, although observations are consistent with such a linkage, a detailed dynamical mechanism is still debated. Here, we argue that the Northern Hemisphere land-sea thermal forcing contrast that underlies zonally asymmetric forcing drives a response in the planetary geostrophic motion, which provides balanced mean fields for synoptic eddies in midlatitudes and thus for wavier jet streams. We show that when the barotropic zonal mean wind U is smaller than a threshold, proportional to the β-plane effect and dry static stability, the flow field exhibits a dramatic transition from a response confined near the surface to one reaching the upper atmosphere. As global warming enhances polar amplification, the midlatitude jet stream intensity is suppressed. The confluence of these effects leads to wavier jet streams.

The “Polar Vortex” Winter of 2013/2014

AbstractThe term “polar vortex” remained largely a technical term until early January 2014 when the United States (US) media used it to describe an historical cold air outbreak in eastern North America. Since then, “polar vortex” has been used more frequently by the media and the public, often conflating circulation features and temperatures near the surface with only partially related features at the tropopause and in the stratosphere. The polar vortex in its most common scientific usage refers to a hemispheric‐scale stratospheric circulation over the Arctic that is present during the Northern Hemisphere cold season. Reversal of the zonal mean zonal winds circumnavigating the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), termed major sudden stratospheric warmings, can be linked to mid‐latitude cold air outbreaks. However, this mechanism does not explain the cold US winter of 2013/2014. This study revisits the winter of 2013/2014 to understand how SPV variability may still have played a role in the severe winter weather. Observations indicate that anomalously strong vertical wave propagation occurred throughout the winter and disrupted, but did not fully break, the SPV. Instead, vertically propagating waves were reflected back downward, amplifying a blocking high near Alaska and downstream troughing across central North America, a classic signature for extreme cold air outbreaks across central and eastern North America. Thus, the association of the term “polar vortex” with winter 2013/2014, while not justified by the most common usage of the term, serves as a case study of the wave‐reflection mechanism of SPV influence on mid‐latitude weather.

Mechanisms for Zonal Mean Wind Responses in the Thermosphere to Doubled CO2 Concentration

AbstractWe explored mechanisms for the thermospheric zonal mean wind responses to doubled CO2 concentration through investigating the zonal mean momentum balance in the thermosphere using GAIA model simulations in June. The analysis shows that ion drag, molecular viscosity, and meridional pressure gradient force vary 3–20 times more than the other forces due to the doubled CO2 concentration. The three forces strongly attenuate each other; consequently, the increase in zonal mean zonal ion drag dominantly strengthens the southward wind (∼15 ms−1 at maximum) in the northern (summer) hemisphere and latitudes north of 35S. This strengthened ion drag was attributed to increased ion density/relative velocity between ions and neutral particles in the northern/southern hemisphere. Southward of 35, the zonal pressure gradient force and the meridional advection of zonal wind strengthen the southward wind by 4–12 ms−1 in total. On the other hand, the zonal wind is mainly altered by increased meridional pressure gradient force (∼15 ms−1 at maximum) caused by a latitudinally asymmetric response of the thermosphere density to increasing CO2 concentration. Our results suggest that the increased ion density in the northern hemisphere is the underlying trigger for the wind responses to increasing CO2 concentration. Furthermore, we show that the meridional advection was mainly (∼70%) due to that of the DW1 tidal component.

Long‐Term Variation of Lunar Semidiurnal Tides in the MLT Region Revealed by a Meteor Radar Chain

AbstractWe present a study on the long‐term variation of lunar semidiurnal (LSD) tides in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). The study is based on a meteor radar chain along ∼120°E meridian, which consists of five stations located at Mohe (MH, 53.5°N, 122.3°E), Beijing (BJ, 40.3°N, 116.2°E), Wuhan (WH, 30.5°N, 114.6°E), Sanya (SY, 18.3°N, 109.6°E), and Ledong (LD, 18.4°N, 109.0°E), respectively. Using the Lomb‐Scargle spectral analysis and least squares fitting method, strong quarter‐annual oscillations in the LSD are found at the three midlatitude stations and their magnitudes are comparable. The LSD magnitudes exhibit clear seasonal and latitudinal differences. The monthly mean magnitudes of LSD reach the maximum in January at all five stations but in other seasons they behave differently at different stations. Besides, the effects of polar vortex weakening (PVW) and quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) phases on the LSD are discussed. Based on the 12 PVW events, our study observes that the enhancement of the LSD is not always related to the commencements of PVW events. The enhancements of the LSD during the easterly QBO phase are generally stronger than those enhancements during the westerly QBO phase in the MLT region. The easterly QBO phase could modulate the mesospheric zonal mean zonal winds at low latitudes during the PVWs, which is in favor of amplifying the LSD. Our results suggest that the QBO phase is an important factor in enhancing the LSD in the MLT region during PVW events.

Increasing Trends in Oceanic Surface Poleward Eddy Heat Flux Observed Over the Past Three Decades

AbstractMesoscale processes make the largest contribution to ocean variability and are significant agents in ocean heat transport. In this investigation, we provide evidence based on satellite observations for an increasing trend in surface transient eddy heat flux (EHF) over the period 1993–2020. The enhanced EHF is particularly prominent in western boundary currents and their extensions at mid‐latitudes, with increases of 20%–40% per decade. Additionally, we decompose the EHF trend into contributions from velocity variance, temperature variance and a coherence parameter using a Cauchy–Schwarz inequality. We find that each contributes to the spatial pattern of the trend in EHF, with the contribution from enhanced temperature variance dominating the global zonal mean EHF trend over the past few decades.

Characteristics of the Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Equatorial Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Region Revealed by Satellite Observation and Global Analysis by the JAGUAR Data Assimilation System

AbstractClimatological features of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the equatorial mesosphere and lower thermosphere were analyzed using temperature data from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and global analysis data from a data assimilation using satellite observations, including the MLS, over 15 years. Based on spectral analyses, fluctuations with a period of 15–90 days were extracted as the ISO component. First, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was performed for the ISO components of the zonal mean temperature from the MLS in the region of 10°S–10°N, 68–85 km, where the ISO amplitudes are found to be maximized. The global structure of the ISO anomalies of temperature and zonal winds estimated assuming a gradient wind balance was examined by a regression analysis using the first and second principal EOFs. It is shown that the ISO phases propagate downward with a vertical wavelength of 25–30 km above a height of 60 km and that the ISO signal synchronized with the equatorial ISO is observed even in the middle and high latitude regions of both hemispheres. Second, the global analysis data were used to examine the driving mechanism of the ISO. It was confirmed that the time series of the equatorial ISO zonal mean zonal wind in the analysis agreed well with radar observations, which were not used for assimilation. Results suggest small‐scale phenomena, such as gravity waves not necessarily represented in the parameterization and the meridional advection of angular momentum, mainly contribute to drive the ISO.

Zonal Mean Distribution of Cosmogenic Isotope (7Be, 10Be, 14C, and 36Cl) Production in Stratosphere and Troposphere

AbstractCosmogenic isotopes are produced by cosmic rays mostly in the middle‐low atmosphere and then take part in the complicated processes of atmospheric transport and deposition that are different for the stratosphere and troposphere. Cosmogenic isotopes are continuously produced by galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) with a hard energy spectrum and sporadically by solar energetic particles (SEPs) with much softer energy spectra. The partition of the isotope production between the stratosphere and troposphere in different latitudinal zones depends on the spectrum of cosmic rays, geomagnetic shielding, and the tropopause shape. The exact zonal distribution of the isotope production is not accurately known and needs to be precisely modeled as well as the isotopes' transport and deposition in climatic reconstruction. Here, we present the results of the computations of 14C, 36Cl, 10Be, and 7Be cosmogenic isotope production in the Earth's atmosphere using the CRAC model. We provide zonal mean production rates separately for the stratosphere and troposphere in three latitudinal zones: tropical (0°–30°), midlatitude (30°–60°), and polar (60°–90°). The computations were performed for four scenarios: (a) production by GCR during a solar‐cycle minimum; (b) production by GCR during a solar‐cycle maximum; (c) SEP event with the hardest known spectrum (GLE#5); and (d) the strongest known soft‐spectrum SEP event (GLE#24). The results confirm that, while all the latitudinal zones are relatively important for the isotopes produced by GCR, isotope production by SEPs in the tropical zone is small and can be neglected. The results are coupled to the SOCOL‐AER2‐BE chemistry‐climate model and can be used for a simplified parametric modeling of the isotopes' atmospheric transport, for the conditions typical for the Holocene.

The Relation Between the Latitudinal Shifts of Midlatitude Diabatic Heating, Eddy Heat Flux, and the Eddy‐Driven Jet in CMIP6 Models

AbstractThe midlatitude storm tracks and eddy‐driven jet are predicted to shift poleward in response to anthropogenic climate change. Here the relation between the latitudes of the eddy‐driven jet and storm track and their responses to climate change in preindustrial and abrupt 4 × CO2 simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are examined, focusing on the Southern Hemisphere summer. The eddy‐driven jet, Ferrel cell, midlatitude diabatic heating, and eddy heat flux all shift poleward in response to climate change, while the eddy‐driven jet latitude is positively correlated with the diabatic heating latitude and the Ferrel cell latitude, but is not significantly correlated with the eddy heat flux latitude, and is negatively correlated with the midlatitude diabatic heating strength. The roles of eddy heat flux and diabatic heating in the midlatitude circulation response to climate change are analyzed using the Kuo‐Eliassen equation. Each heating term induces a meridional circulation and an associated Coriolis force, which acts to change the vertical shear of the zonal mean zonal wind. It is found that in response to climate change, the heating due to eddy heat flux accelerates the vertical wind shear on the equatorward side of the jet, while the diabatic heating decelerates the vertical wind shear on the poleward side of the jet. The contributions of the heating terms to the momentum budget balance the contributions due to eddy momentum flux and surface friction, which act to shift the vertical shear poleward in response to climate change.

Evaluation of Polar Winter Mesopause Wind in WACCMX+DART.

This work evaluates zonal winds in both hemispheres near the polar winter mesopause in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) with thermosphere‐ionosphere eXtension combined with data assimilation using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) (WACCMX+DART). We compare 14 years (2006–2019) of WACCMX+DART zonal mean zonal winds near 90 km to zonal mean zonal winds derived from Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) geopotential height measurements during Arctic mid‐winter. 10 years (2008–2017) of WACCMX+DART zonal mean zonal winds are compared to SABER in the Antarctic mid‐winter. It is well known that WACCM, and WACCM‐X, zonal winds at the polar winter mesopause exhibit a strong easterly (westward) bias. One explanation for this is that the models omit higher order gravity waves (GWs), and thus the eastward drag caused by these GWs. We show for the first time that the model winds near the polar winter mesopause are in closer agreement with SABER observations when the winds near the stratopause are weak or reversed. The model and observed mesosphere and lower thermosphere winds agree most during dynamically disturbed times often associated with minor or major sudden stratospheric warming events. Results show that the deceleration of the stratospheric and mesospheric polar night jet allows enough eastward GWs to propagate into the mesosphere, driving eastward zonal winds that are in agreement with the observations. Thus, in both hemispheres, the winter polar night jet speed and direction near the stratopause may be a useful proxy for model fidelity in the polar winter upper mesosphere.

Benthic foraminifera and pore water carbonate chemistry on a tidal flat and salt marsh at Ria Formosa, Algarve, Portugal

Benthic foraminifera showed a vertical zonation in tidally influenced salt marshes, which has been used for sea level reconstructions. Growing evidence suggested that freshwater influx, salinity, or the pH of interstitial waters has also an impact on the foraminiferal distribution. A tidal flat and salt marsh transect was investigated in the north-western Ria Formosa coastal lagoon, Algarve, Portugal, to constrain the relationship of benthic foraminifera, halophytes, and pore water properties. The dominance of saltworts from the subfamily Salicornioideae and landward increasing soil salinities depicted evaporation as governing environmental factor. The carbonate chemistry from lagoonal and pore waters identified anoxic tidal flat sediments of as main source of total alkalinity. The alkalinity was lower in the salt marsh, where the pCO2 was extremely high. Salt marsh pore waters showed a high variability of carbonate system parameters, which mirrored small-scale spatial heterogeneities in the soil. The distribution of textulariid salt marsh foraminifera was confined to the vegetated zones, where their abundance increased with elevation. Calcareous species were frequent on the tidal flat and in the highest salt marsh. Many of them were specialised to high salinities or to extreme and variable environmental conditions. Two levels of faunal change in the salt marsh coincide with vegetation zonal boundaries, mean tide or mean high water levels. The two other faunal changes were related to changes in calcite saturation state or organic carbon concentrations. The proportion of textulariids showed a negative correlation with submergence time or elevation, and a significant correlation with pore water pCO2. The faunal distribution, pore water calcite saturation, and Ammonia dissolution patterns indicated that calcareous species specialised to tolerate carbonate-corrosive conditions prevailed even at lowest saturation levels.

Blocking Simulations in GFDL GCMs for CMIP5 and CMIP6

Abstract The frequency of atmospheric blocking has been largely underestimated by general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Errors in the onset, persistence, barotropicity, geographical preference, seasonality, intensity, and moving speed of global blocking were diagnosed in 10 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCMs for recent CMIP5 and CMIP6 using a detection approach that combines zonal eddies and the reversal of zonal winds. The blocking frequency, similar at 500 and 250 hPa, is underestimated by 50% in the Atlantic–Europe region during December–February but is overestimated by 60% in the Pacific–North America region during that season and by 70% in the southwest Pacific during July–August. These blocking biases at 500 hPa were investigated in the five CMIP6 models that showed improvements over the CMIP5 versions. The Atlantic–Europe underestimate corresponds to lower instantaneous blocking rates, lower persistent blocking rates, and higher persistent stationary ridge rates; the number of blocks with a duration of 4–5 days is only 40%–65% of that in observations. In contrast, the overestimate consists of excessive blocks with a duration longer than 12 days in the Pacific–North America and up to twice as many 4–6-day events in the southwest Pacific. Simulated December–February blocks up to 12 days in the Pacific–North America region tend to be stronger and to move more slowly than those in observations. Diagnostic sensitivity tests indicated that the zonal mean and zonal eddy components of the mean state play a key role, as replacing each with that of observations substantially reduced many of the outstanding biases in these GCMs.

Direct and Rectified Effects of Tropical Instability Waves on the Eastern Tropical Pacific Mean State in a Regional Ocean Model

Abstract Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are oceanic features propagating westward along the northern front of the Pacific cold tongue. Observational and modeling studies suggest that TIWs may have a large impact on the eastern tropical Pacific background state from seasonal to interannual time scales through heat advection and mixing. However, observations are coarse or limited to surface data, and modeling studies are often based on the comparison of low- versus high-resolution simulations. In this study, we perform a set of regional high-resolution ocean simulations (CROCO 1/12°) in which we strongly damp (NOTIWs-RUN) or not (TIWs-RUN) TIW propagation, by nudging meridional current velocities in the TIW region toward their monthly climatological values. This approach, while effectively removing TIW mesoscale activity, does not alter the model internal physics in particular related to the equatorial Kelvin wave dynamics. The impact of TIWs on the oceanic mean state is then assessed by comparing the two simulations. While the well-known direct effect of TIW heat advection is to weaken the meridional temperature gradient by warming up the cold tongue (0.34°C month−1), the rectified effect of TIWs onto the mean state attenuates this direct effect by cooling down the cold tongue (−0.10°C month−1). This rectified effect occurs through the TIW-induced deepening and weakening of the Equatorial Undercurrent, which subsequently modulates the mean zonal advection and counterbalances the TIWs’ direct effect. This approach allows quantifying the rectified effect of TIWs without degrading the model horizontal resolution and may lead to a better characterization of the eastern tropical Pacific mean state and to the development of TIW parameterizations in Earth system models. Significance Statement Tropical instability waves (TIWs), meandering features at the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, have long been recognized as a key component of the climate system that can even impact marine ecosystems. Yet, they are still hardly simulated in coupled global climate models. Here, we introduce a new framework to isolate and quantify their complex influence on the tropical Pacific background climate. This approach allows revealing a so far overlooked effect of TIWs on the mean circulation and heat transport in this region that should be accounted for in the next generation of global coupled climate models through parameterization or increased resolution.

Near Invariance of Poleward Atmospheric Heat Transport in Response to Midlatitude Orography

Abstract Total poleward atmospheric heat transport (AHT) is similar in both magnitude and latitudinal structure between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. These similarities occur despite more major mountain ranges in the Northern Hemisphere, which help create substantial stationary eddy AHT that is largely absent in the Southern Hemisphere. However, this hemispheric difference in stationary eddy AHT is compensated by hemispheric differences in other dynamic components of AHT so that total AHT is similar between hemispheres. To understand how AHT compensation occurs, we add midlatitude mountain ranges in two different general circulation models that are otherwise configured as aquaplanets. Even when midlatitude mountains are introduced, total AHT is nearly invariant. We explore the near invariance of total AHT in response to orography through dynamic, energetic, and diffusive perspectives. Dynamically, orographically induced changes to stationary eddy AHT are compensated by changes in both transient eddy and mean meridional circulation AHT. This creates an AHT system with three interconnected components that resist large changes to total AHT. Energetically, the total AHT can only change if the top-of-the-atmosphere net radiation changes at the equator-to-pole scale. Midlatitude orography does not create large-enough changes in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient to alter outgoing longwave radiation enough to substantially change total AHT. In the zonal mean, changes to absorbed shortwave radiation also often compensate for changes in outgoing longwave radiation. Diffusively, the atmosphere smooths anomalies in temperature and humidity created by the addition of midlatitude orography, such that total AHT is relatively invariant. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to better understand how orography influences heat transport in the atmosphere. Enhancing our understanding of how atmospheric heat transport works is important, as heat transport helps moderate Earth’s surface temperatures and influences precipitation patterns. We find that the total amount of atmospheric heat transport does not change in the presence of mountains in the midlatitudes. Different pieces of the heat transport change, but they change in compensatory ways, such that the total heat transport remains roughly constant.

Polar night jet characterization through artificial intelligence

The stratospheric polar vortex is a cyclonic circulation that forms over the winter pole, whose edge is characterized by a strong westerly jet (also called polar night jet, PNJ). The PNJ plays a key role in processes such as the distribution of atmospheric constituents in the polar stratosphere or the wave propagation. Further, variations in PNJ can also affect the troposphere, being behind the occurrence of extreme events near the Earth’s surface. Thus, it is important to correctly characterize the mean state of the PNJ and its variability. Already existing algorithms, although working, may present several issues. The simplest ones, those based on zonal mean wind, can miss important information. In contrast, the 2-dimensional ones usually involve multiple calculations with several fields, some of them not always included in typical datasets.In this study, we describe a new artificial intelligence technique to characterize the PNJ. The algorithm only requires data of zonal wind that is classified each time step with a decision trees algorithm with 95.5% accuracy, trained with images processed by a climate science researcher. The classifier is applied to JRA-55 reanalysis data and the output of simulations of three climate models and is found to perform reasonably well when validated against traditional zonal-mean methods. Indeed, it provides more information about the PNJ, as it offers in one step the PNJ region, averaged magnitudes and even identify if the PNJ is under perturbed conditions. We have explored two examples of potential applications of the classifier such as the study of the influence of climate change on the PNJ and the variability of the PNJ on monthly and daily scales. In both cases, our algorithm has produced coherent results with those produced with previous studies, but with more detail obtained at a single step.

Transient climate simulations of the Holocene (version 1) – experimental design and boundary conditions

Abstract. The Holocene, which started approximately 11.5 ka, is the latest interglacial period with several rapid climate changes with timescales, from decades to centuries, superimposed on the millennium-scale mean climate trend. Climate models provide useful tools to investigate the underlying dynamic mechanisms for the climate change during this well-studied time period. Thanks to the improvements in the climate model and computational power, transient simulation of the Holocene offers an opportunity to investigate the climate evolution in response to time-varying external forcings and feedbacks. Here, we present the design of a new set of transient experiments for the whole Holocene from 11.5 ka to the preindustrial period (1850; HT-11.5 ka) to investigate both the combined and separated effects of the main external forcing of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, and ice sheets on the climate evolution over the Holocene. The HT-11.5 ka simulations are performed with a relatively high-resolution version of the comprehensive Earth system model CESM1.2.1 without acceleration, both fully and singly forced by time-varying boundary conditions of orbital configurations, atmospheric GHGs, and ice sheets. Preliminary simulation results show a slight decrease in the global annual mean surface air temperature from 11.5 to 7.5 ka due to both changes in orbital insolation and GHG concentrations, with an abrupt cooling at approximately 7.5 ka, which is followed by a continuous warming until the preindustrial period, mainly due to increased GHG concentrations. Both at global and zonal mean scales, the simulated annual and seasonal temperature changes at 6 ka lie within the range of the 14 PMIP4 model results and are overall stronger than their arithmetic mean results for the Middle Holocene simulations. Further analyses on the HT-11.5 ka transient simulation results will be covered by follow-up studies.

The SPARC Water Vapor Assessment II: assessment of satellite measurements of upper tropospheric humidity

Abstract. Nineteen limb-viewing data sets (occultation, passive thermal, and UV scattering) and two nadir upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) data sets are intercompared and also compared to frost-point hygrometer balloon sondes. The upper troposphere considered here covers the pressure range from 300–100 hPa. UTH is a challenging measurement, because concentrations vary between 2–1000 ppmv (parts per million by volume), with sharp changes in vertical gradients near the tropopause. Cloudiness in this region also makes the measurement challenging. The atmospheric temperature is also highly variable ranging from 180–250 K. The assessment of satellite-measured UTH is based on coincident comparisons with balloon frost-point hygrometer sondes, multi-month mapped comparisons, zonal mean time series comparisons, and coincident satellite-to-satellite comparisons. While the satellite fields show similar features in maps and time series, quantitatively they can differ by a factor of 2 in concentration, with strong dependencies on the amount of UTH. Additionally, time-lag response-corrected Vaisala RS92 radiosondes are compared to satellites and the frost-point hygrometer measurements. In summary, most satellite data sets reviewed here show on average ∼30 % agreement amongst themselves and frost-point data but with an additional ∼30 % variability about the mean bias. The Vaisala RS92 sonde, even with a time-lag correction, shows poor behavior for pressures less than 200 hPa.