Water Resources Management Scenarios Research Articles (Page 1)

Stakeholder-based management of ecosystem services in agricultural areas: Integrating the leader-follower game and a conflict resolution model

This study compared three uncertainty-based decision-making frameworks (considering/not considering the hierarchical structure of stakeholders) using resilience-based indices for evaluating different water resources management (WRM) scenarios under the impacts of climate change. The first step involved identifying significant stakeholders in the study area and establishing their relative weights. In the next step, stakeholders were asked to evaluate the management scenarios in the three different decision-making frameworks based on their decision criteria (nine resilience-based indices, implementation cost, and employment). Different types of weights (explicit and interval) were assigned to each stakeholder and their decision criteria, to account for the uncertainty associated with estimating their respective weights. This methodology was applied to the case of the Zarrinehrud River basin in northwest Iran. The best management scenario identified (MSC1346) was able increase lake elevation by 2.6 m (from 1271.3 m to 1273.9 m), improve the resilience of the system by 25 %, and enhance provisioning ecosystem services such as water and food supply and regulating services such as air quality. Comparing the results of the three decision-making frameworks revealed that the two which considered the hierarchical structure of stakeholders were more effective in determining the best scenario. The best scenario selected in the framework that ignored the hierarchical structure of stakeholders (MSC13567) had USD 202 million higher overall implementation and construction costs and gave a negligible difference in resilience value (0.04 difference) compared with scenario MSC1346.

Motives: Since the main sources of some rivers are located in neighbouring countries, hydrological issues in the eastern part of Iran are critical. The water dispute between Iran and the neighbouring Afghanistan is related to environmental issues and human health.Aim: The aim of this study was to demonstrate how transboundary water conflicts increase human vulnerability through economic issues such as reduced productivity in the agricultural sector.Results: The study’s originality lies in the application of the positive mathematical programming approach to the agricultural sector, specifically in evaluating the impact of water pricing policies on crop selection and irrigation water use. A quadratic cost function was calibrated to develop three scenarios of water resources consumption (30%, 40%, and 70% reduction for farmers in group 1, and 10%, 25%, and 75% reduction for farmers in group 2) and price increase (70%, 80%, and 100% increase). The calibration of the quadratic cost function revealed an increase in irrigation efficiency (water resources consumption) as well as an increase in the region’s irrigated area.

Enhancing the resilience of ecosystem services under extreme events in socio-hydrological systems: A spatio-temporal analysis

A multi-agent decision-making framework for evaluating water and environmental resources management scenarios under climate change

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of climate change on water resources management and groundwater quantity and quality in the coastal agricultural Almyros Basin, in Greece. Intensive groundwater abstractions for irrigation and nitrogen fertilization for crop production maximization, have caused a large water deficit, nitrate pollution, as well as seawater intrusion in the Almyros aquifer system. Multi-model climate projections for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) from the Med-CORDEX database for precipitation and temperature have been used to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the study area. The multi-model climate projections have been bias-corrected with Delta, Delta change of Mean and Variance, Quantile Delta Change, Quantile Empirical Mapping, and Quantile Gamma Mapping methods, and statistically tested to find the best GCM/RCM multi-model ensemble. Simulation of coastal water resources has been performed using an Integrated Modelling System (IMS) that contains connected models of surface hydrology (UTHBAL), groundwater hydrology (MODFLOW), nitrate leaching/crop growth (REPIC), nitrate pollution (MT3DMS), and seawater intrusion (SEAWAT). The results indicate that the best climate multi-model ensemble consists of three (3) climate models for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 using the Quantile Empirical Mapping bias-correction method. The IMS was applied for historical and future periods with observed and simulated meteorological inputs (e.g. precipitation and temperature) and various irrigation and agronomic scenarios and water storage works development (i.e. reservoirs). The results indicate that at least deficit irrigation and deficit irrigation along with rain-fed cultivation schemes, combined with or without the development and operation of reservoirs, should be applied to overcome the degradation of groundwater quality and quantity in the study basin. Based on the findings of this work, the water resources management should be adaptive to tackle the water resources problems of the Almyros Basin.

The scope of this study is to assess the effects of agronomic and water resources management scenarios on groundwater balance, seawater intrusion, and nitrate pollution and the comparison of the developed scenarios relative to the current crop production and water management regime in the coastal agricultural Almyros basin in the Thessaly region, Greece. Agronomic and water resources scenarios have been simulated and analyzed for a period of 28 years, from 1991 to 2018. The analysis has been conducted with the use of an Integrated Modeling System for agricultural coastal watersheds, which consists of coupled and interlinked simulation models of surface water hydrology (UTHBAL), reservoir operation (UTHRL), agronomic/nitrate leaching model (REPIC), and groundwater models for the simulation of groundwater flow (MODFLOW) and contaminant transport of nitrates (MT3DMS) and chlorides (SEAWAT). The pressure on water resources has been estimated with the Water Exploitation Index (WEI+) and the reservoirs’ operation with the Reliability index to cover the water demands. The indices of Crop Water Productivity, Nitrogen Use Efficiency, and Economic Water Productivity have been used to quantify the benefits and the feasibility of the alternative scenarios. The best results for the sustainability of water resources are achieved under the deficit irrigation and rain-fed scenario, while the best results for water resources and the local economy are achieved under deficit irrigation and reduced fertilization scenario.

Evaluating and improving the sustainability of ecosystem services in river basins under climate change

Evaluating the long-term resilience of water resources systems: Application of a generalized grade-based combination approach

Evaluating the resilience of water resources management scenarios using the evidential reasoning approach: The Zarrinehrud river basin experience

This study presents an integrated modeling system for the evaluation of the quantity and quality of water resources of coastal agricultural watersheds. The modeling system consists of coupled and interrelated models, including (i) a surface hydrology model (UTHBAL), (ii) a groundwater hydrology model (MODFLOW), (iii) a crop growth/nitrate leaching model (REPIC, an R-ArcGIS-based EPIC model), (iv) a groundwater contaminant transport model (MT3DMS), and (v) a groundwater seawater intrusion model (SEAWAT). The efficacy of the modeling system to simulate the quantity and quality of water resources has been applied to the Almyros basin in Thessaly, Greece. It is a coastal agricultural basin with irrigated and intensified agriculture facing serious groundwater problems, such as groundwater depletion, nitrate pollution, and seawater intrusion. Irrigation demands were estimated for the main crops cultivated in the area, based on precipitation and temperature from regional weather stations. The models have been calibrated and validated against time-series of observed crop yields, groundwater table observations, and observed concentrations of nitrates and chlorides. The results indicate that the modeling system simulates the water resources quantity and quality with increased accuracy. The proposed modeling system could be used as a tool for the simulation of water resources management and climate change scenarios.

Evaluating water resources management scenarios considering the hierarchical structure of decision-makers and ecosystem services-based criteria

Abstract. For over 20 years, the eastern Algeria region has had significant rainfall deficits that resulted in severe droughts, which seriously affected the availability of water for drinking. Owing to considerations of affordability, drinking water is systematically underpriced because water is essential for life. Such a low price results in water being used inefficiently. This research presents the impact that a high leakage level in the water distribution network has on the water service price in BBA (Bordj Bou Arréridj) city and expected future water resources management scenarios in BBA watersheds by taking into account to the river flow simulated by GR2M using the outputs of climate models with emissions scenarios A1 and A1B. The analysis of the results shows a large economy can be made with regard to water losses, reaching up to 47% saving of the produced water volume; also, BBA city is expected to experience water stress before 2030.

Modeling surface water-groundwater interaction in arid and semi-arid regions with intensive agriculture

The paper focuses on the development of the hydraulic–hydrological model used to simulate water resources management scenarios in the Zambezi River basin. The main challenges of the implementation of the model are the scarcity of continuous reliable discharge data and the significant influence of large floodplains. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool, a semi-distributed physically based continuous time model, was chosen as simulation tool. Given the complexity and the size of the basin under study, an automated calibration procedure was applied to optimize the relative error and the volume ratio at multiple stations. Using data derived from satellite observations, the model is first stabilized during two years, then calibrated over six years and finally validated over three years. The study evidences the importance of evaluating the model at different points of the basin and the complementarities between performance indicators.

The Editor-in-Chief has decided to retract this article. Upon thorough investigation carried out according to the Committee on Publication Ethics guidelines it has been found that the article duplicates large text blocks, some figures and the general structure and conceptualization of the underlying model from the thesis of Philip Andreas Brunner: Water and salt management in the Yanqi Basin, China. ETH (2005). http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a005144054 without proper attribution. The authors have agreed to the retraction.

The use of software agent systems and technologies to simulate water resources management scenarios and improve the engagement of stakeholders in policy making is gaining paramount importance. Such importance originates from two main concerns or change agents. Firstly, the context of water management is becoming highly complicated due to the intensity of connections with other systems, the diversity of stakeholders and the multiplicity (and sometime conflicting) objectives of decision partners. Moreover, the domain used for capitalizing on water management issues is becoming planetary (as it is the case of shared basins) rather than being local (watershed, watercourse, scheme, etc.). As a result, the concern is not limited to the optimization of the utility matrix of stakeholders but additional attention is required to incorporate many emerging issues such as the maintenance of financial sustainability, functional mainstreaming and improving engagement to promote reconciliation and change of water use behaviors. Secondly, the recent technological developments have improved the processing capacity of hardware, software functionalities and the accessibility of telecommunication platforms. Such developments have been reflected in the improvement of the capacities of decision makers to address complex problem domains. Software agents' technologies possess the qualities that make them useful for the provision of decision support in water management domains. As it is the case of irrigated agriculture, software agents' technology can be used for the design of farm surface irrigation systems, the improvement of irrigation systems management and the enhancement of the involvement of farmers in the processes of integrated water management. This paper is concerned with the use of agent based systems to facilitate the engagement of farmers in Al Ahsaa area in the management of water resources. The government of the Kingdom is adopting a demand management approach for the management of irrigation water by discouraging the cultivation of water-consuming crops such as wheat and dates. Improving the ability of farmers to analyze alternative cropping patterns significantly affects their water use behavior.

Towards best practice implementation and application of models for analysis of water resources management scenarios

The goal of this study was to set-up the basis for climate change adaptation of water resources management policies in Seyhan River basin. The first priority was to identify the balances between water resources and water users with respect to existing and planned projects. In this respect various aspects of Seyhan basin were evaluated, including evaluation of existing water resources, determination of water demand of existing and planned projects, and water resources supply-demand characteristics. The global climate change model was downscaled to the basin scale, the results were associated with hydrometeorological monitoring network and finally the impact of climate change on surface water resources and demands were determined for specific projection years. Water resources management scenarios were developed to evaluate adaptation alternatives to climate change scenarios at the basin level. It was determined that even though there was no water stress in Seyhan basin in 2010, many parts of the basin were expected to suffer significant shortages over the coming years.

This effort discusses and evaluates alternative water management options to alleviate water stress and meet water needs in insular entities of the Aegean Archipelago, within the framework set by the principles of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and of the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC. Options are presented and assessed to determine integrated applicable strategies reflecting technical, economic, social and environmental constraints. The assessment is based on the application of the WaterStrategyMan Decision Support System (WSM DSS), developed under the Fifth Framework Programme, and is performed for six islands of the region. Results emphasize the need to understand the interconnections between social, technical, economic, and environmental problems in order to reach integrated solutions. In the dynamic context of current societies, pragmatic policy initiatives are needed to improve the means of preventing and addressing such issues, as well as new institutional structures to handle appropriately competing and conflicting water demands and development objectives.