Water Resources Carrying Capacity Assessment Research Articles

Evaluation of Agricultural Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Its Influencing Factors: A Case Study of Townships in the Arid Region of Northwest China

The water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) strongly determines the agricultural development in arid areas. Evaluation of WRCC is important in balancing the availability of water resources with society’s economic and environmental demands. Given the demand for sustainable utilization of agricultural water resources, we combine the water stress index and comprehensive index of WRCC and use multi-source data to evaluate agricultural WRCC and its influencing factors at the township scale. It makes up for the deficiencies of current research, such as the existence of single-index evaluation systems, limited calibration data, and a lack of a sub-watershed (i.e., township) scale. By applying multi-source data, this study expands the spatial scale of WRCC assessment and establishes a multidimensional evaluation framework for the water resources in dryland agriculture. The results indicate water stress index ranges from 0.52 to 1.67, and the comprehensive index of WRCC ranges from 0.25 to 0.70, which are significantly different in different types of irrigation areas and townships. Water quantity and water management are key factors influencing WRCC, the water ecosystem is an area requiring improvement, and the water environment is not a current constraint. Different irrigation areas and different types of townships should implement targeted measures to improve WRCC.

Risk Assessment of the Water Resources Carrying Capacity: A Case Study in North China

AbstractEvaluating the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is the prerequisite and foundation for the planning and management of water resources. In this paper, according to risk theory, a framework for the risk assessment of WRCC was proposed based on the fragility of damage‐affected bodies and the damage posed by disaster‐inducing factors. Then, based on water quantity, water quality, water area, and water flow, a fragility index system was constructed from the water resources, economy, and society category. Additionally, the damage was analyzed in terms of climate change, urbanization, and industrialization. Finally, a model for the risk assessment of the WRCC was established by combining the fragility of the water resources carrying system with the compound damage posed by climate change, urbanization, and industrialization. The developed model was then applied to assess the risk of the WRCC in North China in 2017. The results indicate that the fragility of the WRCC was the highest in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, and the compound damage showed an increasing trend from the southeast to the northwest in North China. Meanwhile, the risk of the WRCC decreased from the southeast to the northwest, the highest risk was observed in Hebei Province, and the lowest risk was observed in Inner Mongolia. This research provides an important technical guideline for the sustainable utilization of water resources and the coordinated development of the economy and society.

The edge of the petri dish for a nation: Water resources carrying capacity assessment for Iran

Different methods have been proposed in population dynamics to estimate carrying capacity (K). This study estimates K for Iran, using three novel methods by integrating land and water limits into assessments based on Human Appropriated Net Primary Production (HANPP). The first method uses land suitability as the limiting resource. It gives theoretical estimates for K. The second method which is based on the first method, uses land suitability and water resources availability as limiting resources assuming highly efficient agriculture, also resulting in theoretical estimates for K. The third method is based on the second method assuming a lower, more realistic agricultural efficiency. The third therefore results in more realistic estimates. Four spatial hydrological scale levels were considered to estimate food production. Also, nine scenarios were defined: a reference one reflecting the current situation, five others for the first method, two for the second method, and finally, one scenario for the third method. Results show severe limitations on food production by the availability of suitable land, water availability, and crop productivity for agriculture. We estimated theoretical values for K using land and water limiting resources separately. Two realistic scenarios considering realistic agricultural productivity and water use at national and local levels were assessed, resulting in 35.5 and 20 million people, respectively. These are alarming values compared to the current population of Iran (84 million). Moreover, our conservative estimations are still higher than any assessment when considering social, economic, or political barriers. This research provides a systematic analysis of carrying capacity in Iran, showing the importance of food import on Iranians' lives, relevant to land, water, and food policies.

Variable precondition S-type cloud algorithm: Theory and application on water resources carrying capacity assessment

The purpose of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) research is to meet the sustainable utilization of water resources and realize its sustainable development strategy. Scientifically evaluating the carrying capacity of regional water resources is extremely important. In this study, a variable precondition S-type cloud algorithm (VPSCA) is developed for assessment of regional WRCC based on social economic subsystem, water resources subsystem, ecological and environmental subsystem including thirteen indicators, which can overcome the shortcoming that the existing evaluation methods rarely consider fuzziness, randomness, and dynamic variability of parameters at the same time. First, forward S-type cloud generator algorithm (FSCGA) is developed based on segmented S-type membership function. On this basis, precondition S-type cloud generator algorithm (PSCGA) is proposed. Moreover, the VPSCA is developed by embedding PSCGA into variable fuzzy evaluation (VFE) method. Taking Beijing as a typical research area, this paper analyzes and forecasts the comprehensive benefits of water supply of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SWDP) in 2030 using VPSCA. The results show that SWDP can increase the carrying capacity of local water resources by 3.80%. In addition, feasibility and validity of VPSCA are further verified by comparison with other existing methods. This study aims to provide some suitable theoretical and practical implications of the evaluation of WRCC.

A Novel Hybrid Approach for Water Resources Carrying Capacity Assessment by Integrating Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation and Analytical Hierarchy Process Methods with the Cloud Model

The water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) shows remarkable fuzziness and randomness, which causes the uncertainty and instability of the WRCC assessment (WRCCA). In order to solve these problems, we proposed a novel hybrid approach for WRCCA, in which the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methods were integrated with the cloud model (CM). Firstly, an evaluation indicator system of WRCC was constructed. Secondly, the AHP and FCE methods were subsequently improved with the CM. The CM was used to scale the relative importance and aggregate the judgment matrices, where the weights of the clouds were obtained. These integrations of AHP and CM greatly reduced the randomness in the weight calculation; the CM was used to describe the comment sets, calculate the membership degree matrices and determine the assignment clouds, the evaluation sets and the WRCCA index clouds were obtained. These integrations of FCE and CM effectively blurred the boundary fuzziness and gave more intuitive results. Finally, the hybrid FCE-AHP-CM approach was applied to a case study. It was concluded that the novel approach has particular advantages in dealing with the fuzziness and randomness comprehensively, and therefore could assess the WRCC and enhance the robustness and intuition of WRCCA results.

Water Resources Carrying Capacity Assessment in Dali Prefecture Based on T-S Fuzzy Neural Network Model

Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) assessment is an effective way to evaluate the coordinated development of water resources, economic society and ecological environment, thus, it is significant to study WRCC to realize the harmony among water resources, economy and society in region. In this paper, an index system for evaluating WRCC, which represents the natural attributes and the managerial attributes of water resource, was constructed. Moreover, the T-S Fuzzy Neural Network Model was applied to evaluate WRCC of resource-oriented, management-oriented and comprehensive in Dali Prefecture, respectively. The results showed that evaluation results of WRCC of resource-oriented, management-oriented and comprehensive were different from each other obviously. Evaluation results of comprehensive WRCC accords with the fact. The WRCC in research region was averaged overall. WRCC in Heqing county, Eryuan county, Yangbi county, Dali city, Binchuan county, Xiangyun county and north of Midu county and Weishan county was already in a critical status, but that in the other area of Dali Prefecture was in non-overloading status.

Application of Projection Pursuit Model to Water Resources Carrying Capacity Assessment in Longitudinal Ridge-gorge Region of Yunnan

Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) assessment is an effective way to evaluate the coordinated development of water resources, economic society and ecological environment, thus, it is significant to study WRCC to realize the harmony among water resources, economy and society in region. In this paper, an index system for evaluating WRCC was constructed from the perspective of water quantity and water quality. Moreover, the projection pursuit technique was applied to evaluate WRCC. Based on the grade division standard of WRCC, the projection function which could reflect the variability of the WRCC was constructed, and genetic algorithm was introduced to optimize the function and seek the optimum projection vector, while the projection pursuit model to evaluation of WRCC was built by the data of the vector. WRCC of the 80 counties in Longitudinal Ridge-gorge Region of Yunnan was evaluated by this model, and the results which accord with the fact were gained. The result showed that WRCC is dynamic with evaluation index value was presented as the logistic curve. The WRCC in research region was good overall, but that in three counties and four counties was already in overload and nearly overload, respectively. Potential of WRCC in mid and western of research region was higher than the other area. The evaluation results were given with continuous real number, which could reveal the temporal-spatial change characteristics of WRCC accurately. Evaluation model of WRCC based on projection pursuit model was practical and feasible for dynamic evaluation of regional WRCC.

Risk assessment of water resources and environmental carrying capacity in Yinchuan city

Regional sustainable development is a critical requirement for natural resources management and socio-economic sustainability, in which water resource is one of the most important supports. The present study proposed a method to calculate water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) and water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) to assess the scale of economy and population that the local water resources can support in Yinchuan City, a semi-arid area in Northwest China. Carrying population and gross domestic product (GDP) were selected as the characteristic indices of carrying capacity. The urban water demand and supply data were used to calculate the WRCC, NH3–N and chemical oxygen demand with K2Cr2O7 as the oxidizing agent (CODCr) were used to calculate the WECC. Carrying index was employed to assess the carrying status and risk of water resources and environment in 2010, 2015 and 2020, respectively. The results show that the environmental capacity of Yinchuan in terms of NH3–N in different years can carry higher GDP than the CODCr water environment, and the CODCr WECC in terms of GDP is always the lowest among the three years. It can be seen that the WECC of CODCr imposes the strictest restrictions on water utilization in Yinchuan city. The risk assessment of the carrying capacity indicates that CODCr pollution in 2015 is at unacceptable risk level. The CODCr pollution is a key factor affecting the economic and social development of Yinchuan city. The assessment results are beneficial to the assessment of WRCC and WECC in other similar areas.

玉溪市水资源承载力研究分析

本文以完善玉溪市水资源的安全管理、实现水资源可持续利用为目的，以玉溪市县级行政区为研究对象，选取评价指标并利用基于“熵权”的模糊综合评价模型，对玉溪市平水年、枯水年、丰水年水资源承载力进行研究。结果表明：玉溪市水资源承载力存在显著时空异质性，空间总体上呈现“西高东低”的格局，丰水年水资源承载力最高，枯水年与平水年承载力相近。其中位于玉溪市东部的澄江县、江川区、通海县、华宁县在平水年和枯水年属于低承载地区，西部新平县、元江县和中部红塔区属于中承载力地区。丰水年东部通海县、江川县及中部易门县属低承载力区，西部的新平县属高承载力地区，其余各县为中承载力地区。玉溪市的水资源承载力与各区当年的水资源禀赋、供需状况、经济发展程度、生态环境状况密切相关。 Water resources carrying capacity assessment has a great significance for the safety management and sustainable utilization of water resources and the development of city construction. We took Yuxi counties as the case study and selected evaluation indexes to assess the water resources carrying capacity in normal, dry and wet years by the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model based on “entropy”. The results show that there is a significant temporal and spatial heterogeneity on the water resources carrying capacity in Yuxi. The water resources carrying capacity decreases gradually from east to west. The eastern counties of Yuxi in the normal and dry years which are Chengjiang, Jiangchuan, Tonghai and Huaning belong to the low bearing area. Xinping, Yuanjiang located in the west and central Hongta district belong to the medium carrying capacity district. In the wet year, the eastern county of Tonghai and Jiangchuan, central county of Yimen is low carrying capacity. Xinping located in the west belongs to high carrying capacity area. And the rest of counties belong to medium bearing capacity area. The water resources carrying capacity is depend on the endowment and supply-demand ratio of water resources, the degree of economic development and ecological environment.

Water resources carrying capacity assessment: The case of Algeria's capital city

Algiers, the capital city of Algeria, experienced in the past years, recurrent water shortages due to rampant population growth, coupled with the relative scarcity of water resources in this Mediterranean city. The current supply system, despite improvements that have occurred since then, still shows vulnerability vis-à-vis a number of factors. Indeed, cyclical droughts, that significantly reduce the intake of surface water, affect the region. Over-exploitation of groundwater has led to the phenomenon of seawater intrusion, when not mastered, can make these aquifers unusable. Water resources are also prone to pollution that threatens water potability. To analyze the balance between water supply and domestic demand, we will use the concept of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC). The latter can be defined as the level of human activity that can be withstood by the available water resources without major degradation of aquatic environments while maintaining an adequate standard of living. Action must be carried out simultaneously on the determinant factors of supply and demand which are of social, economic and environmental nature. The objective of this study is to assess the population that can be sustained with regard to water resources and domestic consumption patterns. Water demand consideration as much as on supply is of critical importance to reduce water supply vulnerability in a country with limited fresh water resources.

Application of Set Pair Analysis in Water Resources Carrying Capacity Assessment

Water carrying capacity assessment is to reveal the relationship between water resources, population, and economy, fully use water resources, and make economic development go hand in hand with protection of water resources, which simultaneously promote sustainable social and economic development. Based on the analysis of water resources carrying capacity defined, according to the measure of the demand for sustainable use of water resources, using a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to construct water resources carrying ability evaluation index system with three aspects of socio-economic systems, environmental systems and water systems, gives the five evaluation criteria, proposed set pair analysis to evaluate it, analyze the advantages of set pair analysis, and finally select Gaochun as case study areas, provide a new method for the carrying capacity of water resources.

Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity for Sustainable Development Based on a System Dynamics Model: A Case Study of Tieling City, China

Studies of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) can provide helpful information about how the socio-economic system is both supported and restrained by the water resources system. As such, there is a need to develop better quantitative assessment methods to determine the potential maximum socio-economic growth within a catchment subjected to a given amount of water resource. An improved WRCC assessment method based on a system dynamics model (WRCC-SDM) is proposed in this paper. WRCC-SDM is built on synthesis simulations of coupling effects and feedback mechanisms within the society-economy-water compound system. The results can integrally represent system behaviors and states, and the evaluation of WRCC is achieved using this model. Moreover, an integrated indicator (Population-GDP-GDP per capita) is proposed to express the threshold value of WRCC. Based on the natural water resources supply capacity and associated socio-economic development potential, the concepts of critical WRCC and extreme WRCC are put forward. Critical WRCC represents the socio-economic scale that will cause total water demand to reach the maximum natural water resources supply capacity, while extreme WRCC reflects the socio-economic scale when the GDP growth rate constrained by limited water resources is zero. The methodology was applied to assess the water resources situation in Tieling City, China under different scenarios. The results indicate that: (1) Given the constraints represented by water resources, projected GDP growth tends to follow an S-curve growth pattern; and (2) Rapid population growth may lead to earlier and more severe water resources constraints.

The Evaluation of Water Security: Research Methods of Water Resources Carrying Capacity

With the growth of population, water security has become the worldwide problem combined with severe environment pollution, quick economic development and irrational water allocation. Based on sustainable development, Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) driven from physics originally has been proposed to solve it. The measurement of WRCC can tell decision-makers that how much population the water resource can feed, what degree water resources can support the economic and so on. Because the decision-makers can make adaptive decisions based on the correct evaluation of WRCC, the ways of the assessment of WRCC are very important. This paper focuses on how to measure WRCC by selecting three typical methods, fuzzy model of comprehensive evaluation, multiple criteria analysis (MCA) and system dynamics (SD) methods. The characteristics of these methods are good at solving the multi-objective and complicated problem in common which is the trait of WRCC. The differences of them are the specific process of analysis and evaluation.