Warm Phase Of El Niño–Southern Oscillation Research Articles

Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation

Estimating tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is crucial for disaster reduction and risk management. This study aims to estimate TC intensity using machine learning (ML) models. We utilized eight ML models to predict TC intensity, incorporating factors such as TC location, central pressure, distance to land, landfall in the next six hours, storm speed, storm direction, date, and number from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship Version 4 (IBTrACS V4). The dataset was divided into four sub-datasets based on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (Neutral, El Niño, and La Niña). Our results highlight that central pressure has the greatest effect on TC intensity estimation, with a maximum root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.289 knots (equivalent to 0.663 m/s). Cubist and Random Forest (RF) models consistently outperformed others, with Cubist showing superior performance in both training and testing datasets. The highest bias was observed in SVM models. Temporal analysis revealed the highest mean error in January and November, and the lowest in February. Errors during the Warm phase of ENSO were notably higher, especially in the South China Sea. Central pressure was identified as the most influential factor for TC intensity estimation, with further exploration of environmental features recommended for model robustness.

Linearity of the Climate Response to Increasingly Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in a Large Ensemble Framework

Abstract Large explosive volcanic eruptions cause short-term climatic impacts on both regional and global scales. Their impact on tropical climate variability, in particular El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is still uncertain, as is their combined and separate effect on tropical and global precipitation. Here, we investigate the relationship between large-scale temperature and precipitation and tropical volcanic eruption strength, using 100-member MPI-ESM ensembles for idealized equatorial symmetric Northern Hemisphere summer eruptions of different sulfur emission strengths. Our results show that for idealized tropical eruptions, global and hemispheric mean near-surface temperature and precipitation anomalies are negative and linearly scalable for sulfur emissions between 10 and 40 Tg S. We identify 20 Tg S emission as a threshold where the global ensemble-mean near-surface temperature and precipitation signals exceed the range of internal variability, even though some ensemble members emerge from variability for lower eruption strengths. Seasonal and ensemble mean patterns of near-surface temperature and precipitation anomalies are highly correlated across eruption strengths, in particular for larger emission strengths in the tropics, and strongly modulated by ENSO. There is a tendency to shift toward a warm ENSO phase for the first postvolcanic year as the emission strength increases. Volcanic cooling emerges on a hemisphere-wide scale, while the precipitation response is more localized, and emergence is mainly confined to the tropics and subtropics. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to investigate at which strength the climate responses of volcanic forcing can be distinguished from the internal climate variability and whether the responses will linearly increase as the emission strengths become stronger. We ran 100-member MPI-ESM ensembles of idealized equatorial volcanic eruptions of different sulfur emission strengths and find that seasonal and ensemble mean patterns of near-surface temperature and precipitation anomalies are distinguishable and linearly scalable for sulfur emissions from 10 to 40 Tg S if their forcing patterns are similar. The identification of volcanic fingerprints is important for seasonal to decadal forecasts in the case of potential future eruptions and could help to prepare society for the regional climatic consequences of such an event.

Interannual Lightning Variability within the TRMM LIS Dataset Using an ENSO Perspective

Abstract The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) was used to investigate interannual variability of lightning from 1998 to 2014 within the 38°S–38°N range. Previous studies have indicated that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is one significant contributor to interannual lightning variability, potentially the dominant mechanism on the global scale. This period of 16 years contained four warm- (El Niño), eight cold- (La Niña), and four neutral-phase ENSO years based on the oceanic Niño index. Large magnitude lightning anomalies were found during the warm phase of ENSO, with mean warm-phase anomalies of >10 flashes (1000 km)−2 min−1 in north-central Africa and Argentina. This includes a +35 flashes (1000 km)−2 min−1 anomaly in Argentina during the 2009 El Niño. In general, large-scale anomalies of thermodynamic properties and upper-atmospheric vertical motion coincided with the lightning anomalies observed in both Africa and South America. The anomaly over north-central Africa, however, was characterized by a 6-week shift in the annual lightning maximum with the warm phase, a result of the more complex environmental response to ENSO over the Sahel. The most consistent ENSO anomalies with appreciable lightning were found in southeastern Africa, northwestern Brazil, central Mexico, and the southern Red Sea. Of these, all but the Mexico region had enhanced lightning with the cold phase and suppressed lightning with the warm phase.

Observed interannual variability and projected scenarios of drought in the Chorotega region, Costa Rica

The observation-based analysis of drought development in the Chorotega region showed that, despite the area being relatively small, agricultural drought exhibits high spatial variability across the region. However, the lack of net radiation data hinders the capacity to provide reliable estimates of evapotranspiration (ET), affecting the assessment of drought occurrence, since its propagation across the hydrological system is very sensitive to the ET estimation method. The coarse resolution of satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products and the lack of information on irrigation in agricultural areas limits the ability to properly establish a relationship between drought and vegetation response. Based on the observations, the most prominent precipitation deficits occur between September and October (–100 mm on average), showing that changes in the large-scale circulation are responsible for the impact of severe drought in the region. In agreement with previous studies, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main modulator of the drought severity, with the warm ENSO phase favoring an enhanced drought development and its influence being more significant between August and October, displaying correlations greater than –0.6. The climate change projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios suggest the intensification of drought events in the Chorotega region at mid-century, with the Tempisque-Bebedero basin being the most affected area in terms of precipitation decrease and warming. The projected scenarios correspond to an increase of 1 oC for mean temperature and more of 2 oC for minimum and maximum temperature in the 2050 horizon, as well as a decrease of 400 to 800 mm for annual precipitation under both RCPs.

Quantifying the Strength of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole in Influencing the OND Rainfall Season in Tanzania

The current paper examines the strength of variability between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in influencing October to December (OND) rainfall over the bimodal rainfall regime of Tanzania. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF), correlation analysis, and composite analysis were used during the data analysis. The results show more rainfall distribution over the western part of the Lake Victoria basin and to the peripheral of the northern coast of the country, thus suggesting that, during the OND rainfall season, the onset starts in the western part of the Lake Victoria basin, then spreads to the rest of the areas under investigation as the season progresses. Furthermore, on the spatial scale, the findings revealed that there is a strong correlation between IOD and ENSO indices and OND rains in the northeastern highlands. Furthermore, a robust temporal correlation is revealed between the mean OND rains over the bimodal rainfall areas and IOD (r = 0.70) compared to ENSO (r = 0.62). The anomalous warming over the western Indian Ocean (positive IOD) has a faster response to OND rains over the bimodal rainfall regime of Tanzania compared to the remote influence induced by anomalous warming from the central equatorial Pacific Ocean (warm phase of ENSO). Meanwhile, dry years are associated with negative IOD and the cold phase of ENSO conditions. The findings offer valuable insights on strategies for mitigating the effects associated with extreme weather events and improving resilience in Tanzania.

Application of Stable Isotopic Compositions of Rainfall Runoff for Evaporation Estimation in Thailand Mekong River Basin

The Mekong River Basin comprises approximately 38% of Southeast Asia. Our study area comprises the right-bank tributaries, which drain a substantial portion of Northeast Thailand. This study aimed to estimate the evaporative losses from streams during the 2013–2015 period. The normal and warm El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases caused higher temperatures and low rainfall in the 2014–2015 period. The results show that the local meteoric water line for precipitation isotopes had seasonal variation due to variable precipitation. The enrichment of river isotopes indicated that streams lost an average of 4% of their water through evaporation. During the cooling ENSO phase, significant evaporation occurs due to the deep convection that typically occurs in tropical regions. In contrast, evaporation was low during the warm ENSO phase because of its geographic location. The El Niño year’s isotope values were significantly more enriched than the La Niña year’s, showing that precipitation and positive temperature anomalies affected the isotopic compositions in the continental basin. Furthermore, the deuterium excess helped distinguish the relative contributions of the wet and dry seasonal sources to the moisture origin, indicating that the predominant source of moisture is inland evaporation, with a small contribution from the ocean.

Evaluation of Energy Potential from Coffee Pulp in a Hydrothermal Power Market through System Dynamics: The Case of Colombia

Colombia has abundant solar, wind, and biomass resources for energy production with non-conventional renewable energy (NCREs) sources. However, the current participation of NCREs is negligible in the electricity mix of the country, which has historically depended on hydroelectric plants. Meteorological phenomena, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), threaten the energy supply during periods of drought, and the generation of energy using fossil fuels is necessary to offset the hydric deficit. Since Colombia is one of the largest coffee producers in the world, this study used system dynamics to evaluate the energy potential from cherry coffee pulp and analyze trends in the energy supply for different energy sources in scenarios of climatic vulnerability. First, the causal relationship of the system was identified, and the key variables of the model were projected. Then, the behavior of the system was evaluated by simulating a 120-month period. The results showed a generation potential from coffee pulp of 177 GWh per year and a power generation of 11,250 GWh and 7537 GWh with solar and wind resources, respectively, by 2030. Finally, it was confirmed that including new renewable resources is a key factor in supporting hydraulic generation in the warm phase of ENSO while reducing thermal generation dependence.

Early summer surface air temperature variability over Pakistan and the role of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections

AbstractEarly summer (May–June) is the season where the surface air temperature (SAT) variability is largest and may result in extreme temperature conditions over Pakistan. Therefore, we analysed the early summer interannual SAT variability over Pakistan for the period 1981–2018 using observational dataset and model simulations. We noted that upper‐level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over Pakistan, which are associated with upper to the middle tropospheric descending motion, favour clear skies with an increase in net shortwave radiation that leads to extreme surface warming over the region. Moreover, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on Niño3.4 SST index is negatively associated with SAT anomalies over Pakistan. The cold ENSO phase favours the positive geopotential height anomalies due to the strengthening of the Walker circulation that enhance the sinking motion and result in less cloudiness leading to the extreme higher surface temperature conditions over Pakistan, while the opposite happens in the warm ENSO phase. Moreover, the Saudi‐KAU Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) simulated large‐scale patterns that are in good agreement with the observations. Sensitivity experiments with the AGCM confirm that cold SST anomalies in the ENSO region significantly favour above‐normal SAT anomalies over Pakistan, while the opposite happens in the warm ENSO phase. These results are important to understand and potentially predict regional heatwaves over the South Asian region, particularly over Pakistan.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Transatlantic Slave Trade

Abstract The relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the transatlantic slave trade (TAST) is examined using the Slave Voyages dataset and several reconstructed ENSO indices. The ENSO indices are used as a proxy for West African rainfall and temperature. In the Sahel, the El Niño (warm) phase of ENSO is associated with less rainfall and warmer temperatures, whereas the La Niña (cold) phase of ENSO is associated with more rainfall and cooler temperatures. The association between ENSO and the TAST is weak but statistically significant at a 2-yr lag. In this case, El Niño (drier and warmer) years are associated with a decrease in the export of enslaved Africans. The response of the TAST to El Niño is explained in terms of the societal response to agricultural stresses brought on by less rainfall and warmer temperatures. ENSO-induced changes to the TAST are briefly discussed in light of climate-induced movements of peoples in centuries past and the drought-induced movement of peoples in the Middle East today. Significance Statement The transatlantic slave trade was driven by economic and political forces, subject to the vagaries of the weather; it spanned two hemispheres and four continents and lasted more than 400 years. In this study we show that El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and its proxy association with West African rainfall and temperature, are significantly associated with the number of enslaved Africans that were transported from West Africa to the Americas. Lessons learned from the effects of weather and climate on the transatlantic slave trade reverberate today: extreme weather and climate change will continue to catalyze and amplify human conflict and migrations.

The Combined Effects of ENSO and Solar Activity on Mid-Winter Precipitation Anomalies Over Southern China

Both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 11-years solar cycle had been identified as important factors that may influence the wintertime southern China precipitation (SCP). However, the interactions between these two factors remain less noticed. In this study, the combined effects of the ENSO and the solar activity on mid-winter (January) SCP are investigated using observational and reanalysis data. Results suggest that both the ENSO and the solar activity are positively correlated with the SCP, although exhibiting distinct spatial patterns. Under different combinations of the ENSO and solar phases, the SCP anomalies show superposition of these two factors to some extent. Generally, the ENSO-related SCP anomalies tend to be enhanced (disturbed) when the ENSO and the solar activity are in-phase (out-of-phase). But this solar modulation effect appears more clear and significant under cold ENSO (cENSO) phase rather than under warm ENSO (wENSO) phase. Further analysis suggests, during the wENSO phase, solar influences on the Northern Hemisphere circulation are generally weak with little significance. In contrast, during the cENSO phase, the solar effect resembles the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation but with an evident zonal asymmetric component. Its manifestation over the Asia-Pacific domain features by negative geopotential height anomaly over the West Asia and positive geopotential height anomaly over the East Asian coast, a pattern that is favorable for the SCP, thus causing a significant solar modulation on the cENSO-related precipitation anomalies. Further, the potential physical causes of solar effects on circulation are also discussed. Our results highlight the importance of considering solar cycle phase when ENSO is used to predict the East Asian winter climate.

Variability in lightning hazard over Indian region with respect to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases

Abstract. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates the lightning flash density (LFD) variability over India during premonsoon, monsoon and postmonsoon seasons. This study intends to shed light on the impact of ENSO phases on the LFD over the Indian subcontinent using the data obtained from Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensors (LIS) onboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Results suggest the LFD over northeast India (NEI) and southern peninsular India (SPI) strengthened (weakened) during the warm (cold) phase of ENSO in the premonsoon season. During monsoon season, NNWI (north of northwest India) shows above (below) normal LFD in the cold (warm) ENSO phase. It is striking to note that there are three hot spots of LFD over the Indian land region which became more prominent during the monsoon seasons of the last decade. A widespread increase in LFD is observed all over India during the warm phase of ENSO in the postmonsoon season. A robust rise in graupel/snow concentration is found during the postmonsoon season over SPI in the ENSO warm phase, with the lowest fluctuations over the NEI and NNWI regions. The subtropical westerly jet stream is shifted south in association with the warm phase, accompanied by an increase in geopotential height (GPH) all over India for the same period. This exciting remark may explain the indirect influences of ENSO's warm phase on LFD during the postmonsoon season by pushing the mean position of the subtropical westerly towards southern latitudes. However, the marked increase in LFD is confined mostly over the NNWI in the cold ENSO phase.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Impact on Tea Production and Rainfall in South India

AbstractEl Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an aperiodic oscillation of sea surface temperature (SST)-induced interannual rainfall variability in south India (SI) that has a direct impact on rain-fed agricultural production and the economy of the region. The study analyzed the influence of ENSO-related rainfall variability on crop yield of south Indian tea-growing regions (SITR) for the period of 1971–2015. The relationship between SST anomalies from June to August over the Niño-3 sector of the tropical Pacific Ocean and tea production anomalies of SI shows a positive correlation. However, SST has a negative relationship with rainfall in the regions of the southwest monsoon but not with the northeast monsoon region of the Nilgiris. The correlation between rainfall and crop yield in SI (r = 0.045) is positively weak and statistically insignificant (p > 0.05). Tea production is influenced more by the cold phase than the warm phase of ENSO, whereas rainfall is greatly influenced by the warm phase. Tea production across the regions indicated that none of the ENSO phase categories based on Niño-3 has significantly greater production than any of the other ENSO phases. Therefore, the predictability of tea production on the basis of ENSO phases is limited. Our findings highlight that the crop production of SITR appeared to be less responsive to the ENSO phases. This may be due to improvements in production technology that mitigated the problems associated with rainfall variability.

The influence of ENSO on the upper warm temperature anomaly formation associated with the March–May heavy rainfall events in Tanzania

AbstractThis work aims at detecting to what extent the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation influences the upper warm temperature anomaly (UWTA) formation in Tanzania during March to May (MAM) season of 1980–2010. The UWTA has known to influence heavy rainfall events through enhanced vertical uplift and deepening surface low pressure. The study is thus critical towards improved early warning system through a better understanding of the mechanisms in the climate system responsible for the above average rainfall. The empirical orthogonal function analysis in this study, revealed the dominant interannual variability mode of the UWTA to be concentrated over the study region. The interannual variability of ENSO and the UWTA shows a moderate relationship during MAM (r = .5328) while a robust association (r = .7905) exists during the previous September to November (SON). Thus, the anomalous sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) of the central tropical Pacific (e.g., over Nino 3.4) leads 6 months before the UWTA of the study region and anomalous SSTA over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) peak up. Comparatively, the warm phase of ENSO during SON and December to February (DJF) is in phase relationship with the strengthened ascending branch of the Walker circulation over the warm TIO. Further analysis demonstrates that in SON the rising limb of the Walker circulation is the dominant source of uplift and convection enhancement over the warm TIO and later transports warm and moist air (i.e., diabatic heating) aloft for the UWTA formation during SON and DJF. Meanwhile, the Hadley circulation (HC) induced by the SSTA associated with ENSO exhibits the symmetric mode during SON and asymmetric mode in MAM. The asymmetric mode of the HC plays its role in transporting the warm and moist air from the warm TIO towards the study area for the UWTA formation during MAM.

Interannual variations of water vapor in the tropical upper troposphere and the lower and middle stratosphere and their connections to ENSO and QBO

Abstract. In this study, we analyze the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder water vapor data in the tropical upper troposphere and the lower and middle stratosphere (UTLMS) (from 215 to 6 hPa) for the period from August 2004 to September 2017 using time-lag regression analysis and composite analysis to explore the interannual variations of tropical UTLMS water vapor and their connections to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Our analysis shows that the interannual tropical UTLMS water vapor anomalies are strongly related to ENSO and QBO which together can explain more than half (∼ 50 %–60 %) but not all variance of the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies. We find that ENSO's impact is strong in the upper troposphere (∼ 215–∼ 120 hPa) and near the tropopause (∼ 110–∼ 90 hPa), with a ∼ 3-month lag but weak in the lower and middle stratosphere (∼ 80 to ∼ 6 hPa). In contrast, QBO's role is large in the lower and middle stratosphere, with an upward-propagating signal starting at the tropopause (100 hPa) with a ∼ 2-month lag, peaking in the middle stratosphere near 15 hPa with a ∼ 21-month lag. The phase lag is based on the 50 hPa QBO index used by many previous studies. This observational evidence supports that the QBO's impact on the tropical stratospheric water vapor is from its modulation on the tropical tropopause temperature and then transported upward with the tape recorder as suggested by many previous studies. In the upper troposphere, ENSO is more important than QBO for the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies that are positive during the warm ENSO phases but negative during the cold ENSO phases. Near the tropopause, both ENSO and QBO are important for the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies. Warm ENSO phase and westerly QBO phase tend to cause positive water vapor anomalies, while cold ENSO phase and easterly QBO phase tend to cause negative water vapor anomalies. As a result, the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies near the tropopause are different depending on different ENSO and QBO phase combinations. In the lower and middle stratosphere, QBO is more important than ENSO for the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies. For the westerly QBO phases, interannual tropical water vapor anomalies are positive near the tropopause and in the lower stratosphere but negative in the middle stratosphere and positive again above. Vice versa for the easterly QBO phases.

Impact of ENSO 2016–17 on regional climate and malaria vector dynamics in Tanzania

Large scale modes of climate variability, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), have been shown to significantly impact mosquito-borne diseases in the Tropics, including malaria. However, the mechanistic cascade from ENSO and the IOD, to induced changes in regional climate and ultimately mosquito abundance and behaviour is poorly understood. Mosquito population dynamics, behaviour and their potential to transmit disease are all sensitive to micro-climatic conditions. The warm phase of ENSO (El Niño) tends to be associated with increased precipitation and outbreaks of various vector-borne diseases, while the cold phase (La Niña) can cause drought during the short rains over East Africa. The sensitivity of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and host-seeking behaviour to ENSO and to the resulting micro-climatic conditions, were investigated in the Kilombero Valley in Tanzania. From June 2016 to September 2017, changes in the timing and intensity of the rainy seasons and temperature due to the ENSO 2016–17 were observed. Mosquitoes were collected using Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light traps indoors and mosquito electrocuting traps in- and outdoors. Changes in abundance and biting behaviour of Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus were correlated with climate and micro-climate. The impacts of El Niño on climate and mosquito abundance were not clear. However, the study area experienced a drought due to La Niña during which both vector species declined significantly. An. arabiensis densities stayed more stable at higher temperatures and were found in higher numbers outdoors with respect to An. funestus. For both species, indoor temperature and season determined their host-seeking location, with higher temperatures and the wet season driving them outside. The study confirmed the influence of ENSO and micro-climate on malaria vector abundance and host-seeking behaviour, generating hypotheses for predicting the impact of future ENSO on malaria risk and vector control. Our observation of higher outdoor biting during warmer conditions indicates that indoor vector control strategies may become proportionally less effective during this time.

Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region

AbstractThe Middle East and North Africa (MENA), primarily the Arabian Peninsula (AP), is a region where the rate of mean surface temperature rise per decade is among the highest globally known during the recent past. Moreover, MENA regional climate is very sensitive to internal and external climate drivers. Therefore, it is of significant practical importance to analyze MENA sensitivity to climate trends as well as leading variability modes such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Using multiple regression technique on observations and the high‐resolution atmospheric model output, this study investigates the role of climate trends and leading circulation modes such as NAO, ENSO, and ISM in inducing temperature and precipitation variability in MENA region for the period 1979–2008. Our results show substantial regional temperature and precipitation responses of ENSO, NAO, and ISM over MENA. Both the model and the observations indicate that positive phase of NAO and ENSO significantly cools central parts of MENA, in particular, the AP in winter. However, in boreal summer, the warm ENSO phase produces significant warming and drying over the tropical region. The strengthening (weakening) of ISM suggests cooling (warming) and wetting (drying) over MENA rain‐belt region. Moreover, ISM induces a dipole precipitation structure over the tropics caused by Intertropical Convergence Zone shift and associated cloud distribution. High‐resolution atmospheric model slightly underestimates NAO and ENSO winter cooling over the AP; however, overall patterns are well reproduced. The conducted analysis sheds light on the internal mechanisms of MENA climate variability.

Surface air temperature variability over the Arabian Peninsula and its links to circulation patterns

This study investigates the long‐term variability of surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arabian Peninsula (AP), using data from the Climate Research Unit (TS 3.22) for the 1960–2010 period. The long‐term climatology suggests that the warmest AP mean temperatures occur during summer, with the highest temperatures over the northern AP (NAP), due to the monsoon–desert mechanism. During winter, the NAP exhibits low SATs under the influence of western disturbances originating from the Mediterranean. The southwestern AP exhibits the lowest temperatures because of its proximity to the Arabian Sea cold waters, and also because of the orographic effects. The inter‐annual variability of the SAT is stronger during winters. A linear trend analysis reveals a significant increase in the SAT anomaly (0.10 °C/decade) across the AP, consistently with the global temperature anomalies. Besides the local convective heating, summer SAT variability is associated with the weakening of the Asian jet stream and a Rossby wave train from the Indian Ocean. This variability is also influenced by the anomalous low pressure over the North Atlantic and the Sahara, a high‐pressure system over Siberia and the northwest Pacific. Both in spring and autumn, sea surface temperature (SST) variations over the Indo‐western Pacific are highly influenced the AP SATs, whereas winter SATs are modulated by the subtropical jet stream and the Middle East jet stream. In all seasons, the AP SAT is strongly influenced by the SST variations over the tropical oceans. The temperature variability is closely associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). The warm phase of ENSO (i.e., El Niño) is one possible reason behind the inter‐annual increase in SAT over the southern AP. The negative phases of NAO and AO also play a role in increasing AP SAT.

Asymmetry of the Predictability Limit of the Warm ENSO Phase

AbstractA nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method based on monthly sea surface temperature data is employed to explore the predictability limit of warm El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Results using observational data show an asymmetry of the predictability limit between the developing and decaying stages of the warm ENSO phase. To wit, predictability of the developing stage of warm ENSO events is found to approach a limit of 10 months, less than that of the mature and decaying stages. This asymmetrical predictability limit is also found in a long climate model simulation and may explain the asymmetry in operational forecast skill of warm ENSO events. Through exploring the error growth rate as represented by nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent and the instantaneous error growth rate, it is shown that error growth, especially during the first 8‐month lead forecasts, is the primary contributor to the asymmetry of the predictability limit of warm ENSO events.

ENSO relationship to summer rainfall variability and its potential predictability over Arabian Peninsula region

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is considered to be responsible for rainfall predictability in many regions. Some of its regional teleconnections, such as over the Arabian Peninsula in boreal summer (June–August) season, are not well studied. Therefore, in this paper, the relationship between the summer seasonal mean rainfall and ENSO is analyzed with the aid of a 15-member ensemble of simulations using the Saudi-King Abdulaziz University (KAU) Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) for the period 1981–2015. The southwestern peninsula rainfall is linked to the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the central-eastern pacific region. This relationship is established through an atmospheric teleconnection which shows upper-level convergence anomalies over the southern Arabian Peninsula compensating the central-eastern Pacific upper-level divergence anomalies for the warm ENSO phase, and vice-versa for the cold Phase. The upper-level convergence over the southern Arabian Peninsula leads to sinking motion, low-level divergence and consequently to reduced rainfall in the warm phase, while reverse happens in the cold phase. The correlation coefficient between the observed area-averged Niño3.4 index and a Southwestern Arabian Peninsula Rainfall Index (SARI) is −0.43 (statistically significant at 95%). Overall, model shows a potential predictability (PP) of 0.53 for the SARI region. Predictability during El Niño is higher than during La Niña events. This is not only because of a stronger signal, but also noise reduction contributes to the increase of PP in El Niño compared to that of La Niña years.

ENSO influence on the interannual variability of the Red Sea convergence zone and associated rainfall

ABSTRACTThe Red Sea convergence zone (RSCZ) is formed by opposite surface winds blowing from northwest to southeast directions at around 18°–19°N between October and January. A reverse‐oriented, low‐level monsoon trough at 850 hPa, known as the Red Sea trough (RST), transfers moisture from the southern Red Sea to RSCZ. The positions of the RSCZ and RST and the intensity of the RST have been identified as important factors in modulating weather and climatic conditions across the Middle East. Here, we investigate the influence of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of RSCZ, RST, and regional rainfall during winter months. Our results indicate that El Niño (warm ENSO phase) favours a shift of the RSCZ to the north and a strengthening of the RST in the same direction. Conversely, during November and December of La Niña periods (cold ENSO phase), the RSCZ shift to the south and the RST strengthens in the same direction. During El Niño periods, southeasterly wind speeds increase (20–30%) over the southern Red Sea and northwesterly wind speeds decrease (10–15%) over the northern Red Sea. Noticeable increases in the number of rainy days and the intensity of rain events are observed during El Niño phases. These increases are associated with colder than normal air intrusion at lower levels from the north combined with warm air intrusion from the south over the RSCZ. Our analysis suggests that during El Niño winters, warmer sea surface temperatures and higher convective instability over the Red Sea favour local storms conditions and increase rainfall over the Red Sea and adjoining regions.