This study investigates the phenomenon of productivity–wage decoupling across six major OECD economies—France, Germany, Ireland, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—from 2000 to 2023. Using sectoral data from the OECD Productivity Database, we compute productivity–wage ratios and apply structural break analysis to identify regime shifts in the relationship between gross value added per hour worked (GVAHRS) and labor compensation per hour worked (LCHRS). Ireland emerges as a pronounced outlier, with a cumulative growth gap of 116.8 percentage points between productivity and wage growth—the largest among the economies examined. This divergence is driven substantially by Ireland’s real estate sector, which exhibits an extreme productivity-to-compensation ratio of approximately 17:1, reflecting capital-intensive value creation that disproportionately benefits asset owners rather than workers. In contrast, France demonstrates modest wage–productivity convergence, while the United States shows moderate but persistent decoupling. Structural break tests reveal distinct national trajectories, with breaks aligning closely with property-market cycles and financial crises. The findings underscore how institutional frameworks, sectoral composition, and asset-price dynamics mediate the distribution of productivity gains, with implications for inequality, aggregate demand, and economic policy in advanced economies. Structural break analysis identifies regime shifts aligned with financial crises, while Granger causality tests find no evidence that productivity growth predicts wage growth or vice versa.

Purpose: The paper analyzes the relationship between wages and labor productivity across Croatian sectors (2019–2023), focusing on sectoral and temporal specificities. The main goal is to confirm the positive relationship between wage growth and productivity and highlight sectoral differences. The study is based on theories of efficiency wages, human capital investment, and sectoral heterogeneity. A review of previous research emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and sector specific characteristics in productivity. Methodology: Data from the FINA database were used for descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and a fixed-effects panel regression model, allowing for control of sectoral and temporal influences. Results: A 1% wage increase is associated with a 0.738% productivity growth. The highest effects were observed in sectors C (Manufacturing) and J (Information and Communication), while sectors I (Accommodation and Food Services) and R (Arts and Entertainment) showed weaker impacts. Significant productivity growth was recorded in 2022 and 2023. The results confirm the theoretically expected positive relationship between wages and productivity and emphasize the need for sector-tailored policie—technological modernization for more productive sectors and human capital investments for less productive ones. Conclusion: The positive relationship between wages and productivity calls for targeted policies addressing sector-specific needs. Study limitations include potential data constraints, while future research should focus on cross-country comparisons and additional productivity factors.

ABSTRACT This paper proposes an evolutionary take on regional development traps. Our definition of regional traps centres around the structural inability of regions to develop new complex activities. We distinguish between several different traps. Using industry data, we follow European regions over time and provide evidence on which regions in the European Union are trapped, and what kinds of traps they have fallen into. Our econometric analysis shows that being trapped has a negative impact on employment and wage growth in regions. We also find evidence that our development trap indicator explains well whether regions are stuck in a regional development trap, defined as persistent levels of slow economic growth.

ABSTRACT This paper examines how the widespread shift to remote work during the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped skill development and wage inequality across occupations in the United States. Using a difference-in-differences framework and data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), American Time Use Survey (ATUS), and O*NET, we compare outcomes for remote-capable and non-remote occupations before and after the pandemic. Results show that remote-capable jobs experienced significantly higher wage growth – approximately 4–5 percent – relative to non-remote jobs, even after accounting for worker and occupational characteristics. These occupations also displayed greater gains in educational attainment and digital skill engagement, while non-remote occupations faced disruptions in access to training. The findings align with human-capital and task-based theories, suggesting that remote work intensified skill-biased technological inequality. Policy implications include the need for targeted workforce training, equitable digital infrastructure investment, and institutional support for workers in less adaptable roles. The study contributes to understanding how technological and organizational change reshape human capital formation and wage structures in the post-pandemic labor market.

This study examines employment status and wage trajectories of recipients of the Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) program from 2005 to 2018. Drawing on a national dataset containing 22.5 million householder-year observations, the research underscores the dual role of the HCV program as both a safety net for housing stability and a potential tool for economic mobility. The findings reveal that nearly three out of four voucher householders in the sample were not employed in any given year after entering the program. Additionally, over half of the householders (53.8%) never earned wage income during their participation in the HCV program. While a subset of voucher recipients who consistently earned wages experienced wage growth – contrasting with national trends of wage decline among similar income groups during the same period – the average absolute wage remains modest. Furthermore, the study highlights that the HCV program’s impact on economic mobility is uneven and varies significantly across demographic subgroups. These findings underscore the importance of recognizing the HCV program as first and foremost a policy that guarantees stable housing serving many individuals in need of permanent housing support who do not participate in the labor force. Policies aimed at HCV program exit should be targeted to the smaller group of voucher recipients who are able to participate in the workforce and focus on supporting these households’ employment goals.

ABSTRACT This study assesses how China’s 2024 gradual-delay retirement reform alters the redistributive effect of the employee basic pension insurance. Redistribution is judged positive when the post-retirement pension-income Gini is smaller than the pre-retirement wage Gini. The Gini coefficient, MT index, RMT index and sensitivity tests are used to measure the impact of delayed retirement. In the model design, three insured cohorts—male workers, female administrative/technical staff, and female production-line workers—are simulated under alternative retirement ages (i.e. contribution lengths). Sensitivity analysis varies annual real-wage growth, inflation and the contribution index to check robustness. The results indicate that all three groups exhibit positive redistribution, but the effect weakens as retirement age rises. Delayed retirement improves fiscal sustainability at the cost of narrowing income gaps less. Sensitivity runs show that only raising the minimum contribution base for production-line women can fully offset this weakening; all other parameter changes leave the redistributive loss intact, though higher low-wage growth or lower inflation can limit its size. Based on these findings, we recommend accelerating low-income wage growth and controlling inflation can contain the adverse redistributive effect of delayed retirement for all participants; for production-line women, raising their minimum contribution base can make the post-reform income gap smaller than the pre-reform gap.

The focus of this paper is to analyze the situation in the textile and leather industry in the last decade and their importance for the national economy of the Republic of North Macedonia. These industries have a significant impact on the total industrial production in the country, employment, participation in total exports, while their contribution to the formation of GDP is less significant. One of the reasons for this is the high share of lohn production, which accounts for about 93% of clothing and footwear production, while only 7% falls on own production. The analyses show that the textile, clothing and leather industries generally record a negative trend in industrial production and employment. These sectors are dominated by female labor, especially in the production of clothing and leather, which underlines their social as well as economic significance. Most workers in the manufacturing sector have secondary education qualifications, while only a small part have university degrees. While wage growth is a positive sign, it is not enough to compensate for the structural weaknesses of these sectors. The decline in the number of enterprises, together with fluctuations in production indices, confirms the general instability and challenges facing the textile and leather industry in North Macedonia.

ABSTRACT In this paper, I study which is the trade‐off that workers face when accepting a wage cut after a job‐to‐job (JTJ) transition. Using data from the Chilean Unemployment Insurance (UI) registry, I show that JTJ transitions are positively associated with ex‐post wage growth. Besides, conditional on a JTJ transition, workers who accept wage cuts show higher wage growth rates in their destination firms. I rationalize these findings in a parsimonious job search model that features exogenous wage‐wage growth offers. Workers maximize the expected present value of moving JTJ or staying in their current firm when a job offer arrives. The model is calibrated in order to replicate most stylized facts documented in the empirical section and, through comparative statics exercises, the model highlights the relevance of the layoff probability, the correlation of wage levels and growth rates within a job offer, the value of unemployment and the offered ‐ratio in explaining some of the observed labor market and wage dynamics. The evidence that I provide suggests that, even though a JTJ transition implies a wage cut, workers may also enjoy higher continuation values in their new job.

Generative artificial intelligence, represented by ChatGPT, has quickly become one of the most influential technologies shaping the future of work. Although scholars have long debated how automation and AI might transform employment, direct evidence on its effect on wage inequality across occupations is still scarce. This study investigates whether the introduction of ChatGPT has shifted wage patterns in the United States by drawing on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics for the years 20202024. To distinguish between occupations more and less exposed to generative AI, we employed a genetic algorithm that allows group classifications to emerge from observed wage dynamics rather than from predetermined indices. The subsequent difference-in-differences analysis shows that occupations with higher exposure to ChatGPT experienced notably slower wage growth compared with those less exposed, suggesting a widening of existing disparities. The study not only provides new empirical evidence on the labor market consequences of generative AI but also demonstrates the value of combining machine learning with econometric techniques. The findings carry important implications for policy, underscoring the need for reskilling initiatives and other measures to prevent the unequal distribution of AIs economic benefits.

The analysis of marginal effective tax rate (METR) is particularly valuable in the context of labor markets and employment policy. High METR can reduce incentives for additional work or overtime, while lower rates or targeted tax allowances may encourage greater workforce participation. This paper aims to analyze the variations in the METR in Croatia from 2000 to 2024 across various household types, examining how changes in the tax and benefit system and wage growth over time have influenced METR trends. Additionally, a comparative assessment of METRs between Croatia and 22 EU countries that are also OECD members is conducted for 2024, evaluating Croatia’s position relative to other countries. Notably, Croatia's METR for a single average-wage earner stands at 38.9%, which is below the EU-OECD average of 41.6%, with the lowest rates observed in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and the highest in the Netherlands and Belgium.

This paper investigates the impacts of four internationalization strategies (ISs) adopted by firms on wages. In this research, we conclude four strategies a firm will adopt in developing an overseas market: (1) the “no international activity strategy”; (2) the “export strategy”; (3) the “foreign direct investment (FDI) strategy”; and (4) the export and FDI “combined strategy”. Based on the dataset from the Annual Surveys of Industrial Production (ASIP) and the List of Overseas Investment Firms (Institutions) from the Ministry of Commerce of China, this research finds that wages increase as the firms’ ISs evolve. And when the “combined strategy” is adopted, wages increase to the greatest extent. To understand this linkage between wage growth and the ISs, we conduct a mechanism test. The results demonstrate that the “the export strategy”, “the FDI strategy” and “the combined strategy” may increase wages by improving firms’ innovative capability and productivity of firms. JEL classification numbers: F16. Keywords: Export, Foreign Direct Investment, Internationalization Strategies, Firms Wage.

Fisher's classical debt-deflation model outlined a sequence of events governing the positive feedback in economic downturns. This theory has been formative for modern economic policy, including the 2008 crisis. However, few quantitative models have been developed to incorporate positive feedback in cyclic economic dynamics. Here we present an agent-based model in which companies compete by adjusting wages, and workers probabilistically choose employers based on the wage offered. Despite omitting debt, unemployment, and other features in Fisher's model, the model generates endogenous inflation-deflation cycles, irregularly recurring recessions, and clustered bankruptcies. These dynamics emerge from feedback between wage growth, consumer demand, and company fragility, where high wages increase purchasing power but also raise vulnerability to shocks. The model qualitatively reproduces several empirical patterns, including inflation volatility, recession periods and durations, and asymmetric asset returns, though it diverges in firm size distributions and mortality rates. Our results demonstrate that complex macroeconomic behavior can arise from simple, wage-driven interactions alone.

The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming global economies, threatening job security across diverse fields, including AI development itself, as automation increasingly handles complex tasks traditionally performed by skilled professionals. As China leads global manufacturing and technological innovation, understanding the labor market implications of AI adoption is critical for shaping management science policy and workforce development. This study investigates the impact of AI, measured by industrial robot installation density, on employment scale and wages in the manufacturing sectors of Beijing and Shanghai from 2006 to 2020, extending the analysis to 2030 using deep learning. Employing panel data and a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, AI’s effects on job displacement and wage growth are analyzed. Historical findings reveal a nuanced effect: AI adoption is strongly negatively correlated with employment scale (r = -0.90, p < 0.01), with Beijing and Shanghai experiencing employment declines of 44.6% and 40.3%, respectively, from peak levels. Conversely, AI is positively correlated with wages (r = 0.96, p < 0.01), with wage increases of 361% in Beijing and 324% in Shanghai. City-specific analyses show Shanghai’s steeper AI adoption correlates with greater employment declines but higher wage growth compared to Beijing. LSTM forecasts predict continued employment declines (49.8% in Beijing, 50.2% in Shanghai by 2030) and wage growth (51.3% in Beijing, 54.6% in Shanghai). Graphs illustrate historical and forecasted management trends. Country-level synthesis underscores implications for China’s labor market and other developing economies.

Accident-Induced Absence from Work and Wage Growth

Abstract This paper evaluates the significance of different channels through which oil price fluctuations affect US inflation. Using monthly data from 1983 to 2024, we find that, when the underlying causes of oil price increases are not distinguished, production costs constitute a key channel amplifying the impact of oil price shocks. Wage growth and inflation expectations also contribute to the pass-through, whereas the role of monetary policy appears comparatively limited. However, further investigation into various oil price shocks reveals that the production cost channel plays a significant role only in the case of oil-specific demand shocks, whereas wage growth amplifies the transmission of both aggregate demand and oil-specific demand shocks into inflation.

Abstract Revised GDP data suggest that Japan was more than one‐third richer in 1874 than suggested by Maddison, and that Meiji period growth built on earlier development. Despite trend GDP per capita growth during the Tokugawa Shogunate, the catching‐up process only started after 1890 with respect to Britain, and after World War I with respect to the United States. Although catching‐up was driven by productivity growth in manufacturing, Japanese export success also depended on limiting the growth of real wages. Despite claims of a distinctive Asian path of labour‐intensive industrialisation, capital played an important role in the catching‐up process.

We analyze the heterogeneous effects of postpandemic inflation and disinflation by inspecting inflation and wage growth experienced across quintiles of household income and wage distributions. We find that after inflation peaked in June 2022, households and workers in the bottom 40 percent of the income and wage distributions have consistently experienced both higher inflation and higher wage growth when compared to the middle 40 and top 20 percent of these distributions. Comparing the cumulated growth of both variables, we observe that the bottom and middle 40 percent reach the end of 2024 with 4.5 percentage points more of cumulated wage increase than inflation since January 2019, while the top 20 percent ended the same period with close to 3.5 percentage points of increase in their cumulated purchasing power.

Abstract Marriage rates in Korea have been declining at an unprecedented pace in the recent two decades. Drawing on the classical economic theory of marriage as a rational choice, we compute local aggregate economic values of prime-age working men and women to examine the relationship between the relative values of men and marriage rates. The relative values of men fell dramatically by 40% during this period, undermining the economic justification of marriage under unequal allocation of housework. The two-way fixed effects estimation using region-year transitory variations shows that a 1% decrease in the relative values of men was associated with a 0.088% decrease in marriage rates. To explain the precipitous convergence of economic values between the two genders, we decompose the changes in the relative values into four components – (gender-neutral) structural changes, (gender-specific) industrial segregation, (gender-neutral) wage growth, and (gender-specific) wage gaps within industries – to measure their contributions to secular marriage decline. In the 2000s, both the alleviated industrial segregation and the structural changes toward industries with higher female proportions played a major role. On the other hand, the impact of reduced gender wage gaps within industries also became prominent in the 2010s.

The paper presents the results of the research into the current state of agriculture and rural areas of Yaroslavl Oblast, considering specific natural, production, economic and socio-demographic factors. It shows the characteristics and intra-regional differentiation of agricultural production depending on the distance from the region’s large cities. The paper shows specific features of rural development in the context of economic contraction, ageing and shrinking of the population, concentration of production and the increasingly significant role of agricultural holdings, as well as the influence of non-productive factors on intra-regional differentiation. The paper presents statistical calculations by municipal districts and individual enterprises along with the results of socio-geographical expeditions to the rural areas of Yaroslavl Oblast, which included expert interviews with heads of enterprises and local administrations, specialists of various levels, and the population. The mechanisms of development of the agro-industrial complex of the region, the specifics of its current organisation, its challenges, and its impact not only on the food supply for the population, but also on the socio-geographical space and the living conditions of the local population are considered. Relative proximity to towns or cities, the patterns of use of local resources, participation in government support programmes, the degree of modernisation of production, availability of exclusive products, the staffing and the personnel policies, and personal qualities of the managers were identified as key success factors for agricultural enterprises regardless of their size. Both general and specific current challenges to the development of different types of enterprises in the Non-Black Soil Zone were identified, including the shrinking of crop acreage and the dependence of livestock farming on fodder grain purchased from southern Russia. Equally important is the acute shortage of labour, the difficulties in recruiting migrant workers, and wage growth without increases in skills and productivity in the face of labour shortages. The consequences of the sanctions include difficulties in purchasing genetic material and vaccines from abroad, and in the renewal and maintenance of imported equipment.

In Ghana and many African countries, demand for non-life insurance remains strikingly low, even in South Africa, which dominates the continent’s insurance market. This is particularly perplexing given that many non-life insurance products, such as motor insurance, are legally mandated. This study aims to investigate the determinants of non-life insurance demand in Ghana. It utilizes a robust set of regularization methods—specifically Ridge, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), and Elastic net—moving beyond traditional least squares and conventional dimension reduction techniques. The study uses data that span from 1995 to 2022. The findings indicate that the two most important determinants of non-life insurance demand in Ghana are income and economic freedom driven by government expenditure. Furthermore, the study reveals that the most parsimonious model produced by the LASSO algorithm is the most reliable. Based on these insights, we recommend that the government implement economic policies that promote job creation, wage growth, and entrepreneurship to enhance disposable income. Additionally, increasing expenditure on public goods and services—such as roads, utilities, healthcare, education, security, and social intervention programs—would alleviate financial burdens on individuals and businesses, making insurance more affordable and attractive.