Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment Research Articles

Impacts of transport corridor on ecosystem vulnerability in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: Insights from the Sino-Nepalese transport corridor

Transportation corridors are crucial links for socioeconomic development and connectivity, playing a significant role in restructuring regional spatial structures. Fully understanding the impact of transportation corridors on the ecosystem vulnerability and their potential driving mechanisms is essential for the sustainable management of the region. However, few studies have considered the latest definition of IPCC to examine the ecosystem vulnerability in transportation corridors from the perspective of changes in ecosystem properties themselves. This study focuses on the Sino-Nepalese Transport Corridor and innovatively develops a comprehensive framework for assessing ecosystem vulnerability, evaluating the dynamic changes in ecosystem vulnerability from 2000 to 2022. The results show that the ecosystem vulnerability of the Sino-Nepalese Transport Corridor decreases as the distance from the road grows, with minor vulnerability levels dominating in all years. Between 2000 and 2022, the ecosystem vulnerability in 24.42% of the Sino-Nepalese Transport Corridor area intensified, showing an eastern aggravation and western improvement pattern. Specifically, the Lhasa-Lhaze section experienced the highest aggravation of ecosystem vulnerability, with an aggravated area of approximately 2850.50 km2, accounting for approximately 79.37% of the total area of ecosystem vulnerability change. Overall, grazing intensity, temperature, and precipitation determine the spatial pattern of ecosystem vulnerability at the regional scale. Road impacts are mainly indirect, and the expansion of construction land and cropland along roads are the reasons for the significant aggravation in ecosystem vulnerability. This study not only provides a scientific foundation for the ecological protection and restoration of the plateau transportation corridors but also offers a general and feasible method for the study of ecosystem vulnerability across different regions.

Ecosystem vulnerability to extreme climate in coastal areas of China

Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems and the frequency and intensity of extreme global climate events have been increasing over the past century; therefore, assessing ecosystem vulnerability to extreme climate change is critical for sustainable and adaptive ecosystem management. As a climatically sensitive region, coastal China is currently experiencing significant environmental changes. To identify how extreme climate affects ecosystem vulnerability, we calculated and analyzed the spatiotemporal variation in extreme climates, net primary productivity (NPP), and spatial characteristics of ecosystem vulnerability to extreme climate change, and discussed the response characteristics of different ecosystems to extreme climate events based on meteorological data and NPP (1986–2015). The results demonstrated that (1) coastal China has become increasingly warmer over the last thirty decades but the precipitation trend is different in the north and south: precipitation increased in the south and decreased in the north. (2) NPP is rising overall, with the forest ecosystem growing the fastest, particularly since 2010. (3) The ecosystem vulnerability of coastal areas in China is mainly classified as mild or non-vulnerable. However, there were apparent differences in the vulnerability of different ecosystems, with dry land and shrub ecosystems having the highest mean vulnerability. (4) The effects of extreme climates on the vulnerability of different ecosystems and ecosystems in different habitats vary. Overall, rising extreme temperatures can significantly increase the ecosystem vulnerability in the coastal areas of China. The paddy field ecosystem was more influenced by extreme temperatures than other ecosystems, with the southern paddy field ecosystem more influenced than the northern paddy field ecosystem. Our study advances the understanding of vegetation dynamics and their driving mechanisms and provides support for scientifically informed ecological management practices in coastal China.

Measuring biodiversity vulnerability in French lakes – The IVCLA index

Assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems to biodiversity loss has become increasingly crucial in conservation and ecology research. This study proposed a methodology for measuring lake vulnerability to biodiversity loss employing an established framework that combines three components. For this, we measured the resilience (functional redundancy) and sensitivity (an index considering three characteristics of rarity) components for fish and phytoplankton communities. We also measured the exposure component of the main stressors in lakes. We then combined the three components and calculated the vulnerability index (IVCLA) using data from 255 French lakes. We found that all lakes exhibited low levels of resilience, elevated sensitivity regarding average values for fish and phytoplankton groups, and medium exposure to stressors associated with human activities. In addition, there were some discrepancies in resilience and sensitivity patterns between fish and phytoplankton groups, emphasizing the importance of considering information from multiple biological groups when assessing ecosystem vulnerability. Hydrological alterations and low water quality were key stressors related to higher lake vulnerability. Most French lakes have been classified as exhibiting moderate vulnerability. It is crucial to emphasize the potential increase in exposure risks, which could lead to even higher vulnerability levels and, subsequently, biodiversity loss in the future. The IVCLA index offers several advantages, including integrating multiple taxa groups and stressors. We recommend incorporating additional data, such as the resilience and sensitivity of the entire food web, and considering temporal responses to stressors to improve accuracy and predictive power. The IVCLA was developed with the purpose of serving as an effective tool for guiding environmental managers in designing conservation strategies and making informed decisions for lake ecosystems.

Vulnerability assessment of urban remnant mountain ecosystems based on ecological sensitivity and ecosystem services

Urban remnant mountains (URMs) are precious natural green habitat patches that can provide a series of ecosystem services for multi-mountainous cities. The increase in ecological sensitivity and degradation of ecosystem services affected by urban expansion and climate change have led to an increasing vulnerability of urban remnant mountain ecosystems (URMEs). To explore the vulnerability of URMEs, taking the central urban built-up area of the Guiyang city as the study area and URMs as the research object, the vulnerability of URMEs under natural factors and human disturbance was analyzed based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model. The results showed that: (1) Karst rocky desertification, human disturbance, and road density within the buffer zones around URMs were the most important factors affecting the vulnerability of URMEs. Karst rocky desertification was the most likely eco-environmental problem of URMs, and carbon storage was the most important ecosystem service of URMEs. (2) Characteristics of fragile karst habitats in URMs and unreasonable human activities led to high ecological vulnerability, mainly with moderate and severe vulnerability predominating, and the low vulnerability of URMEs when they had moderate park utilization. (3) The ecological vulnerability of small URMs and those distributed in the urban center is higher, and the invulnerable URMEs and the slightly vulnerable URMEs are mainly distributed in the urban edge. The results of this study could provide references for ecological restoration and protection of URMs, and offer a basis for improving the resilience of multi-mountainous cities.

Assessing ecosystem vulnerability under severe uncertainty of global climate change

Assessing the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of species, communities, and ecosystems is essential for successful conservation. Climate change, however, induces extreme uncertainty in various pathways of assessments, which hampers robust decision-making for conservation. Here, we developed a framework that allows us to quantify the level of acceptable uncertainty as a metric of ecosystem robustness, considering the uncertainty due to climate change. Under the framework, utilizing a key concept from info-gap decision theory, vulnerability is measured as the inverse of maximum acceptable uncertainty to fulfill the minimum required goal for conservation. We applied the framework to 42 natural forest ecosystems and assessed their acceptable uncertainties in terms of maintenance of species richness and forest functional type. Based on best-guess estimate of future temperature in various GCM models and RCP scenarios, and assuming that tree species survival is primarily determined by mean annual temperature, we performed simulations with increasing deviation from the best-guess temperature. Our simulations indicated that the acceptable uncertainty varied greatly among the forest plots, presumably reflecting the distribution of ecological traits and niches among species within the communities. Our framework provides acceptable uncertainty as an operational metric of ecosystem robustness under uncertainty, while incorporating both system properties and socioeconomic conditions. We argue that our framework can enhance social consensus building and decision-making in the face of the extreme uncertainty induced by global climate change.

Quantitative Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems

AbstractCharacterizing and predicting the response of terrestrial ecosystems to global change is part of the fundamental challenges of contemporary ecology and ecological conservation. The assessment of climate change impact on forest ecosystems has rarely used a multi-index fusion method for quantitative evaluation. We used forest distribution, net primary productivity, and vegetation coverage to establish an assessment model of the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. We analyzed the change characteristics of these indicators in the Heilongjiang Province of China. Our results indicate the following: (1) from 2001 to 2019, the forest area in Heilongjiang Province ranged from 234,000 to 246,000 km2. The forest net primary productivity (NPP) ranged from 4.40 to 5.55 MgC·ha-1·yr-1, and the vegetation coverage ranged from 42.42% to 67.64%. The forest NPP and the vegetation coverage showed a significant upward trend. (2) The values of forest ecological roles were significantly positively correlated with the climatic potential. (3) The contribution rate of climate change to forest ecosystem change was negatively correlated with forest coverage, which varied from 4.79% to 18.07% in different regions (cities) of the province.Study Implications: Assessing the influence of climate on forest ecosystems comprehensively and accurately before the government prepares ecological measures is necessary. However, the responses of vegetation coverage and net primary productivity to climate change may not be consistent, so climate studies that consider forest ecosystem change trends by a single indicator may have confounding results. We established a model for evaluating the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems to solve this problem. This knowledge may provide a reference for the response, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of forest ecosystems to climate change.

Applying the China’s marine resource-environment carrying capacity and spatial development suitability approach to the Bay of Biscay (North-East Atlantic)

The EMOD-PACE project, funded by the European Commission, aimed to promote international ocean governance between EU and China. One of the objectives of EMOD-PACE is to compare European and Chinese modelling approaches for ecosystem vulnerability assessment. In particular, our objective was to test the applicability of the Chinese evaluation approach of resource-environment carrying capacity (MRECC) and spatial development suitability (abbreviated as “double evaluation”) to a European sea (the Bay of Biscay), in the context of marine spatial planning. The methodology involves three different steps: (i) an evaluation of areas of ecological importance, which includes species and habitats (i.e., biodiversity protection) and coastal characteristics; (ii) assessment of current marine development and utilization; and (iii) an ecological risk identification and the evaluation of the MRECC, by intersecting results from (i) and (ii). After collating information for 31 species of interest (fish, reptiles, mammals and birds), seven habitats (seagrass, seaweeds, saltmarshes, fish spawning areas, tidal flats, estuaries and unique habitats), marine protected areas and eight current human activities performed at sea (aquaculture, ports, ocean energy facilities, shipping, aggregate extraction and dredging, fisheries, military areas and tourism and recreation), they were aggregated and intersected (ecological data vs. human activities), and the ecological risk was determined. Since the total area covered by Marine Protected Areas and areas of high ecological importance is 135,372 km2, the available carrying capacity for development of marine activities within the Bay of Biscay is 229,266 km2. When we apply weighting to the calculation of the ecological importance and human activities, the high importance areas increase and the available carrying capacity decreases by 0.2%, to 228,637 km2. In this work we demonstrate that the Chinese double evaluation approach can be adapted and applied to a European sea, but to obtain more accurate results, and more extensive application to different areas are needed. Also, we have identified essential improvements, including better information for a number of species and habitats; more robust methods to identify biodiversity priorities; additional fish life-story traits; include future human activities; risks posed by multiple activities; and use appropriate weights through a stakeholder consultation.

An object–pressure–endurance–resilience system for assessing the vulnerability of coastal zone ecosystems

As a zone of interaction between land and sea, coastal zones are important carriers of the marine economy, and they are the focal point for strategies related to strengthening a country by means of the sea. As the coastal zones are where land and sea are most closely linked, they become a strategic area for achieving sustainable expansion of the blue economic space. Coastal zones have some capacity to cope with and recover from the adverse effects of ecological pressure, which is the coastal zone ecosystem vulnerability. However, given the vulnerability of coastal zone ecosystems and the existence of considerable ecological pressure, it is necessary to systematically assess coastal zones’ vulnerability and propose targeted countermeasures. First of all, this paper uses normative research methods and the methods that combine quantitative research with qualitative research to investigate the assessment of coastal zone ecosystem vulnerability and propose solutions for related governance. Second, based on an analysis of the shortcomings of existing methods, this study constructed an index system based on “object–pressure–endurance–resilience” (O-P-E-R) to assess coastal zone ecosystem vulnerability. O-P-E-R takes into account the triad of nature–society–culture and systematically defines ecosystem vulnerability. In the meantime, a combined weight calculation method that considers subjective and objective weights was proposed based on an improved group analytic hierarchy process (GAHP) method and the entropy weight method. Further, based on the standardization and normalization of indicator values, a method and scale for assessing coastal zone ecosystem vulnerability were proposed based on an improved matter-element model. In conclusion, the research has established a coastal zone ecosystem vulnerability assessment system that not only expand the safety management of coastal zone ecosystems but also provide a theoretical basis for governments to formulate related policies.

Spatiotemporal changes and driving forces of ecosystem vulnerability in the Yangtze River Basin, China: Quantification using habitat-structure-function framework

Ecosystem vulnerability is the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to adverse effects of external disturbances. Exploring the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability and its driving mechanism is important for regional ecological protection and management. A little study has conducted the ecosystem vulnerability assessment from the perspective of multiple ecosystems characteristics, and the spatial heterogeneity impacts of climate change and human activities on ecosystem vulnerability variation need to be further explored. In this study, a habitat-structure-function framework was proposed to evaluate ecosystem vulnerability pattern of the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in China from 1990 to 2018. Then, the spatial heterogeneity impacts of various factors on ecosystem vulnerability changes were examined utilizing the Geographically Weighted Regression model. Results show that the ecosystem vulnerability index (EVI) pattern in the YRB decreased from upstream to downstream. There was 63.85% of the basin area experiencing a decline in EVI from 1990 to 2018, which was primarily found in the source, southwest and north regions, while the southeast and east regions have suffered an increase in EVI. The impact of climate change on EVI changes increased as time scales increase, while, human activities were still the dominant factor leading EVI changes. Overall, areas with great impact of climate change on EVI variation were concentrated in the source region and upper reaches, while the remarkable impact of human activities occurred in the whole basin. The enhancement of climate warming and humid trend and the strengthen of ecological protection were benefit to the decline of EVI. The proposed framework can be extended to assess vulnerability in other areas or specific ecosystem types, and the findings are expected to provide policy recommendations for ecosystem conservation and management in the YRB.

Responses of Urban Ecosystem Vulnerability and Restoration Assessment on Typhoon Disaster: A Case Study of Zhuhai City, China

With the frequent occurrence of extreme disasters and the development of urbanization, the ecological vulnerability of urban system has been seriously affected, which has become an important issue in urgent need of research. In this study, a comprehensive analysis method of exposure, sensitivity, responsiveness, and resilience was used to establish an ecological vulnerability assessment model based on the impact of typhoon. With the help of big data analysis and model, this paper explored the impact and response of typhoon Hato on Zhuhai’s ecological vulnerability and restoration. Our results showed that under the influence of Hato, Jinwan district showed higher vulnerability, followed by Doumen district and Xiangzhou district. The lowest vulnerability of Xiangzhou district mainly for its coping capacity was significantly higher than the other two districts. Judging from the recovery situation shown by big data, Doumen and Xiangzhou districts recovered relatively quickly in terms of hydraulic and communication systems. The results of this study can provide a theoretical reference for vulnerability assessment, predisaster prevention, and postdisaster recovery of typhoon disaster risk areas.

Simulation of critical transitions and vulnerability assessment of Tibetan Plateau key ecosystems

Simulation of critical transitions and vulnerability assessment of Tibetan Plateau key ecosystems

Vulnerability assessment of forest ecosystems focusing on climate change, hazards and anthropogenic pressures in the cold desert of Kinnaur district, northwestern Indian Himalaya

Vulnerability assessment of forest ecosystems focusing on climate change, hazards and anthropogenic pressures in the cold desert of Kinnaur district, northwestern Indian Himalaya

Seasonal ecosystem vulnerability to climatic anomalies in the Mediterranean

Abstract. Mediterranean ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change and the associated increase in climate anomalies. This study investigates extreme ecosystem responses evoked by climatic drivers in the Mediterranean Basin for the time span 1999–2019 with a specific focus on seasonal variations as the seasonal timing of climatic anomalies is considered essential for impact and vulnerability assessment. A bivariate vulnerability analysis is performed for each month of the year to quantify which combinations of the drivers temperature (obtained from ERA5-Land) and soil moisture (obtained from ESA CCI and ERA5-Land) lead to extreme reductions in ecosystem productivity using the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR; obtained from the Copernicus Global Land Service) as a proxy. The bivariate analysis clearly showed that, in many cases, it is not just one but a combination of both drivers that causes ecosystem vulnerability. The overall pattern shows that Mediterranean ecosystems are prone to three soil moisture regimes during the yearly cycle: they are vulnerable to hot and dry conditions from May to July, to cold and dry conditions from August to October, and to cold conditions from November to April, illustrating the shift from a soil-moisture-limited regime in summer to an energy-limited regime in winter. In late spring, a month with significant vulnerability to hot conditions only often precedes the next stage of vulnerability to both hot and dry conditions, suggesting that high temperatures lead to critically low soil moisture levels with a certain time lag. In the eastern Mediterranean, the period of vulnerability to hot and dry conditions within the year is much longer than in the western Mediterranean. Our results show that it is crucial to account for both spatial and temporal variability to adequately assess ecosystem vulnerability. The seasonal vulnerability approach presented in this study helps to provide detailed insights regarding the specific phenological stage of the year in which ecosystem vulnerability to a certain climatic condition occurs.

Urban Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment of Support Climate-Resilient City Development

Climate change poses a threat to cities. Geospatial information and communication technology (Geo-ICT) assisted planning is increasingly being utilised to foster urban sustainability and adaptability to climate change. To fill the theoretical and practical gaps of urban adaptive planning and Geo-ICT implementation, this article presents an urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach using integrated socio-ecological modelling. The application of the Geo-ICT method is demonstrated in a specific case study of climate-resilient city development in Nanjing (China), aiming at helping city decision-makers understand the general geographic data processing and policy revision processes in response to hypothetical future disruptions and pressures on urban social, economic, and environmental systems. Ideally, the conceptual framework of the climate-resilient city transition proposed in this study effectively integrates the geographic data analysis, policy modification, and participatory planning. In the process of model building, we put forward the index system of urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment and use the assessment result as input data for the socio-ecological model. As a result, the model reveals the interaction processes of local land use, economy, and environment, further generating an evolving state of future land use in the studied city. The findings of this study demonstrate that socio-ecological modelling can provide guidance in adjusting the human-land interaction and climate-resilient city development from the perspective of macro policy. The decision support using urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment and quantitative system modelling can be useful for urban development under a variety of environmental change scenarios.

Hybrid model for ecological vulnerability assessment in Benin

Identifying ecologically fragile areas by assessing ecosystem vulnerability is an essential task in environmental conservation and management. Benin is considered a vulnerable area, and its coastal zone, which is subject to erosion and flooding effects, is particularly vulnerable. This study assessed terrestrial ecosystems in Benin by establishing a hybrid ecological vulnerability index (EVI) for 2016 that combined a composite model based on principal component analysis (PCA) with an additive model based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. Using inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation, point data were spatially distributed by their geographic significance. The results revealed that the composite system identified more stable and vulnerable areas than the additive system; the two systems identified 48,600 km2 and 36,450 km2 of stable areas, respectively, for a difference of 12,150 km2, and 3,729 km2 and 3,007 km2 of vulnerable areas, for a difference of 722 km2. Using Moran’s I and automatic linear modeling, we improved the accuracy of the established systems. In the composite system, increases of 11,669 km2 in the potentially vulnerable area and 1,083 km2 in the highly vulnerable area were noted in addition to a decrease of 4331 km2 in the potential area; while in the additive system, an increase of 3,970 km2 in the highly vulnerable area was observed. Finally, southern Benin was identified as vulnerable in the composite system, and both northern and southern Benin were identified as vulnerable in the additive system. However, regardless of the system, Littoral Province in southern Benin, was consistently identified as vulnerable, while Donga Province was stable.

Development of Methodology for Vulnerability Assessment of Chemical Accident in Terrestrial Ecosystem: (2) Focusing on the Herbs

Objective:As the industry rapidly develops in modern society, the use of chemicals increases and people and various organism living in terrestrial environments are exposed to these chemicals in large quantities. Chemical accidents frequently occur around the world, and these accidents could cause fatal damage to the terrestrial ecosystem. When the terrestrial ecosystem is exposed to highly toxic chemicals, soil functions as well as living organisms in the terrestrial ecosystem could be severely damaged. Countermeasures against chemical accidents and chemicals are required to prevent such damage and for this purpose, systematic vulnerability assessment techniques should be developed to prepare terrestrial ecosystem management for chemical accidents. For this purpose, this study is conducted to develop chemical vulnerability assessment techniques based on biological characteristics of plants.Method:First, we selected 215 species among herb plants according to the domestic distribution and establish various vulnerability indicators that can be evaluated according to the exposure and recovery categories.Results and Discussion:As a result of vulnerability scoring for 215 herbs species, the most vulnerable species were Humulus japonicus, Linum usitatissimum, Psilotum nudum, Trigonotis peduncularis, and Lamium amplexicaule. The least vulnerable species were Miscanthus sinensis, Dactylis glomerata, Spodiopogon sibiricus, and Polygonum filiforme.Conclusions:Terrestrial ecosystem is a main stage of human activity, so there is a high risk of chemical accidents as a large amount of chemicals are used. By utilizing this terrestrial ecosystem vulnerability assessment proposed in this study, we can prioritize the vulnerability of chemicals on the terrestrial ecosystem and use this technique to manage chemical accidents and chemicals and prepare countermeasures.

Advances in Understanding and Managing Catastrophic Ecosystem Shifts in Mediterranean Ecosystems

One of the most challenging issues in Mediterranean ecosystems to date has been to understand the emergence of discontinuous changes or catastrophic shifts. In the era of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, which encompass ideas around Land Degradation Neutrality, advancing this understanding has become even more critical and urgent. The aim of this paper is to synthesize insights into the drivers, processes and management of catastrophic shifts to highlight ways forward for the management of Mediterranean ecosystems. We use a multidisciplinary approach that extends beyond the typical single site, single scale, single approach studies in the current literature. We link applied and theoretical ecology at multiple scales with analyses and modeling of human–environment–climate relations and stakeholder engagement in six field sites in Mediterranean ecosystems to address three key questions: i) How do major degradation drivers affect ecosystem functioning and services in Mediterranean ecosystems? ii) What processes happen in the soil and vegetation during a catastrophic shift? iii) How can management of vulnerable ecosystems be optimized using these findings? Drawing together the findings from the use of different approaches allows us to address the whole pipeline of changes from drivers through to action. We highlight ways to assess ecosystem vulnerability that can help to prevent ecosystem shifts to undesirable states; identify cost-effective management measures that align with the vision and plans of land users; and evaluate the timing of these measures to enable optimization of their application before thresholds are reached. Such a multidisciplinary approach enables improved identification of early warning signals for discontinuous changes informing more timely and cost-effective management, allowing anticipation of, adaptation to, or even prevention of, undesirable catastrophic ecosystem shifts.

Assessment of the vulnerability of alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Assessing ecosystem vulnerability to climate change is critical for sustainable and adaptive ecosystem management. Alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau are considered to be vulnerable to climate change, yet the ecosystem tends to maintain stability by increasing resilience and decreasing sensitivity. To date, the spatial pattern of grassland vulnerability to climate change and the mechanisms that vegetation applies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on grasslands by altering relevant ecosystem characteristics, especially sensitivity and resilience, remain unknown. In this study, we first assessed the spatial pattern of grassland vulnerability to climate change by integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience simultaneously, and then identified its driving forces. The results show that grasslands with high vulnerability were mainly located on the edges of the plateau, whereas alpine grasslands in the hinterlands of the plateau showed a low vulnerability. This spatial pattern of alpine grassland vulnerability was controlled by climatic exposure, and grassland sensitivity and resilience to climate change might also exacerbate or alleviate the degree of vulnerability. Climate change had variable impacts on different grassland types. Desert steppes were more vulnerable to climate change than alpine meadows and alpine steppes because of the high variability in environmental factors and their low ability to recover from perturbations. Our findings also confirm that grazing intensity, a quantitative index of the most important human disturbance on alpine grasslands in this plateau, was significantly correlated with ecosystem vulnerability. Moderate grazing intensity was of benefit for increasing grassland resilience and then subsequently reducing grassland vulnerability. Thus, this study suggests that future assessments of ecosystem vulnerability should not ignore anthropogenic disturbances, which might benefit environmental protection and sustainable management of grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Physiological and gene transcription assays to assess responses of mussels to environmental changes.

Coastal regions worldwide face increasing management concerns due to natural and anthropogenic forces that have the potential to significantly degrade nearshore marine resources. The goal of our study was to develop and test a monitoring strategy for nearshore marine ecosystems in remote areas that are not readily accessible for sampling. Mussel species have been used extensively to assess ecosystem vulnerability to multiple, interacting stressors. We sampled bay mussels (Mytilus trossulus) in 2015 and 2016 from six intertidal sites in Lake Clark and Katmai National Parks and Preserves, in south-central Alaska. Reference ranges for physiological assays and gene transcription were determined for use in future assessment efforts. Both techniques identified differences among sites, suggesting influences of both large-scale and local environmental factors and underscoring the value of this combined approach to ecosystem health monitoring.

Using climate projections to assess ecosystem vulnerability at scales relevant to managers

AbstractLand managers require information about the ongoing and potential effects of future climate to coordinate responses for ecosystems, species, and human communities at scales that are operationally meaningful. Our study focused on the vulnerability for all upland ecosystem types of Arizona and New Mexico in the southwestern United States. Local vulnerability across the two‐state area was represented by the level of departure for late 21st‐century climate from the characteristic pre‐1990 climate envelope of the ecosystem type at each given location, resulting in a probability surface of climate impacts for the two‐state area and an uncertainty assessment based on agreement in results among multiple global climate models. Though the results varied from one ecosystem type to the next, the majority of lands were forecast as high vulnerability and low uncertainty, reflecting significant agreement among climate model projections for the southwestern United States. We then tested our results in relation to ongoing ecological processes that have both regional and global change implications and discovered significant relationships with wildfire severity, upward tree species recruitment, and the encroachment of scrub into semidesert grassland. The testing helped determine the efficacy of the vulnerability surface, as a product of relatively high spatial and thematic resolution, in supporting local planning and management decisions. Most important, this study links climate and changes in vegetation by ecosystem processes that are already ongoing. The results affirm the value of climate model downscaling and show that this portable approach to correlative modeling has value in determining the location and magnitude of potential climate‐related impacts.