Volcanic SO2 Research Articles

Volcanic Drivers of Stratospheric Sulfur in GFDL ESM4

AbstractStratospheric injections of sulfur dioxide from major volcanic eruptions perturb the Earth's global radiative balance and dominate variability in stratospheric sulfur loading. The atmospheric component of the GFDL Earth System Model (ESM4.1) uses a bulk aerosol scheme and previously prescribed the distribution of aerosol optical properties in the stratosphere. To quantify volcanic contributions to the stratospheric sulfur cycle and the resulting climate impact, we modified ESM4.1 to simulate stratospheric sulfate aerosols prognostically. Driven by explicit volcanic emissions of aerosol precursors and non‐volcanic sources, we conduct ESM4.1 simulations from 1989 to 2014, with a focus on the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. We evaluate our interactive representation of the stratospheric sulfur cycle against data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, Multi‐angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder, and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II. To assess the key processes associated with volcanic aerosols, we performed a sensitivity analysis of sulfate burden from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption by varying injection heights, emission amount, and stratospheric sulfate's dry effective radius. We find that the simulated stratospheric sulfate mass burden and aerosol optical depth in the model are sensitive to these parameters, especially volcanic SO2 injection height, and the optimal combination of parameters depends on the metric we evaluate.

Quantifying BrO and SO2 distributions in volcanic plumes—Recent advances in imaging Fabry-Pérot interferometer correlation spectroscopy

Bromine monoxide (BrO) and sulphur dioxide (SO2) are two gases frequently observed in volcanic plumes by spectroscopic techniques capable of continuous gas monitoring like, e.g., Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS). The spatio-temporal resolution of DOAS measurements, however, only allows to determine average gas fluxes (minutes to hours resolution). In particular, it is insufficient to record two-dimensional images of SO2 and BrO in real-time (seconds time resolution). Thus, it is impossible to resolve details of chemical conversions of reactive plume constituents. However, these details are vital for further understanding reactive halogen chemistry in volcanic plumes. Therefore, instruments that combine high spatio-temporal resolution and high gas sensitivity and selectivity are required. In addition, these instruments must be robust and compact to be suitable for measurements in harsh and remote volcanic environments. Imaging Fabry-Pérot interferometer (FPI) correlation spectroscopy (IFPICS) is a novel technique for atmospheric trace gas imaging. It allows measuring atmospheric gas column density (CD) distributions with a high spatial and temporal resolution, while at the same time providing selectivity and sensitivity comparable to DOAS measurements. IFPICS uses the periodic transmission spectrum of an FPI, that is matched to the periodic narrowband (vibrational) absorption features of the target trace gas. Recently, IFPICS has been successfully applied to volcanic SO2. Here we demonstrate the applicability of IFPICS to much weaker (about two orders of magnitude) trace gas optical densities, such as that of BrO in volcanic plumes. Due to its high reactivity, BrO is extremely difficult to handle in the laboratory. Thus, based on the similarity of the UV absorption cross sections, we used formaldehyde (HCHO) as a spectral proxy for BrO in instrument characterization measurements. Furthermore, we present recent advances in SO2 IFPICS measurements and simultaneous measurements of SO2 and BrO from a field campaign at Mt Etna in July 2021. We find photon shot-noise limited detection limits of 4.7 × 1017 molec s0.5 cm−2 for SO2 and of 8.9 × 1014 molec s0.5 cm−2 for BrO at a spatial resolution of 512 × 512 pixels and 200 × 200 pixels, respectively. Furthermore, an estimate for the BrO to SO2 ratio (around 10–4) in the volcanic plume is given. The prototype instrument presented here provides spatially resolved measurements of the reactive volcanic plume component BrO. The temporal resolution of our approach allows studies of chemical conversions inside volcanic plumes on their intrinsic timescale.

Classification of lava lakes based on their heat and SO2 emission: Implications for their formation and feeding processes

Lava lakes are a fascinating but somewhat rare form of volcanic activity. Lava lakes are large free surfaces of hot lava that discharge continuously, and almost quietly, heat and volcanic gases into the atmosphere. They are thought to be fed by convection processes that bring hot gas-rich magma to the surface and back downward, after its cooling and outgassing. A lava lake represents a latent threat for the populations living nearby, as it can drain suddenly through fissures and generate dangerously fast lava flows. We present time series of Volcanic Radiative Power (VRP) and SO2 flux measured from satellites (MODIS and OMI, respectively) from several lava lakes on Earth (Erta Ale, Nyiragongo, Kilauea, Nyamuragira, Ambrym, and Villarrica). Based on long-term trends plotted in a simple VRP versus SO2 flux diagram, we propose a new classification of lava lakes in three categories: small lakes, large foam-dominated lakes, and large melt-dominated lakes. Small lakes show a long-term correlation between VRP and SO2 emissions, while large lakes seem to show an anticorrelation between VRP and SO2 emissions. This at-first-glance surprising anticorrelation probably results from the limited heat transport capacity of the gas-rich foam that initially feeds the convection of these lakes. We also show that the formation of three large lava lakes in the last 2 decades at the rift and hotspot volcanoes followed a similar trend of transitioning, in a few months, from foam-dominated to melt-dominated. We deduce that lava lake formation at these volcanoes follows a common sequence of processes that includes the formation of a large shallow magma reservoir and its outgassing through a newly formed pit crater.

Reconstructing volcanic radiative forcing since 1990, using a comprehensive emission inventory and spatially resolved sulfur injections from satellite data in a chemistry-climate model

Abstract. This paper presents model simulations of stratospheric aerosols with a focus on explosive volcanic eruptions. Using various (occultation and limb-based) satellite instruments, providing vertical profiles of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and aerosol extinction, we characterized the chemical and radiative influence of volcanic aerosols for the period between 1990 and 2019. We established an improved and extended volcanic SO2 emission inventory that includes more than 500 explosive volcanic eruptions reaching the upper troposphere and the stratosphere. Each perturbation identified was derived from the satellite data and incorporated as a three-dimensional SO2 plume into a chemistry-climate model without the need for additional assumptions about altitude distribution and eruption duration as needed for a “point source” approach. The simultaneous measurements of SO2 and aerosol extinction by up to four satellite instruments enabled a reliable conversion of extinction measurements into injected SO2. In the chemistry-climate model, the SO2 from each individual plume was converted into aerosol particles and their optical properties were determined. Furthermore, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) and the instantaneous radiative forcing on climate were calculated online. Combined with model improvements, the results of the simulations are consistent with the observations of the various satellites. Slight deviations between the observations and model simulations were found for the large volcanic eruption of Pinatubo in 1991 and cases where simultaneous satellite observations were not unique or too sparse. Weak- and medium-strength volcanic eruptions captured in satellite data and the Smithsonian database typically inject about 10 to 50 kt SO2 directly into the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) region or the sulfur species are transported via convection and advection. Our results confirm that these relatively minor eruptions, which occur quite frequently, can nevertheless contribute to the stratospheric aerosol layer and are relevant for the Earth's radiation budget. These minor eruptions cause a total global instantaneous radiative forcing of the order of −0.1 W m−2 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) compared to a background stratospheric aerosol forcing of about −0.04 W m−2. Medium-strength eruptions injecting about 400 kt SO2 into the stratosphere or accumulation of consecutive smaller eruptions can lead to a total instantaneous forcing of about −0.3 W m−2. We show that it is critical to include the contribution of the extratropical lowermost stratospheric aerosol in the forcing calculations.

Automatic retrieval of volcanic SO2 emission source from TROPOMI products

Volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) satellite observations are key for monitoring volcanic activity, and for mitigation of the associated risks on both human health and aviation safety. Automatic analysis of this data source, including robust source emission retrieval, is in turn essential for near real-time monitoring applications. We have developed fast and accurate SO2 plume classifier and segmentation algorithms using classic clustering, segmentation and image processing techniques. These algorithms, applied to measurements from the TROPOMI instrument onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor platform, can help in the accurate source estimation of volcanic SO2 plumes originating from various volcanoes. In this paper, we demonstrate the ability of different pixel classification methodologies to retrieve SO2 source emission with a good accuracy. We compare the algorithms, their strengths and shortcomings, and present plume classification results for various active volcanoes throughout the year 2021, including examples from Etna (Italy), Sangay and Reventador (Ecuador), Sabancaya and Ubinas (Peru), Scheveluch and Klyuchevskoy (Russia), as well as Ibu and Dukono (Indonesia). The developed algorithms, shared as open-source code, contribute to improving analysis and monitoring of volcanic emissions from space.

Version 2 of the global catalogue of large anthropogenic and volcanic SO2 sources and emissions derived from satellite measurements

Abstract. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS), and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite spectrometers were used to update and extend the previously developed global catalogue of large SO2 emission sources. This version 2 of the global catalogue covers the period of 2005–2021 and includes a total of 759 continuously emitting point sources releasing from about 10 kt yr−1 to more than 4000 kt yr−1 of SO2, that have been identified and grouped by country and primary source origin: volcanoes (106 sources); power plants (477); smelters (74); and sources related to the oil and gas industry (102). There are several major improvements compared to the original catalogue: it combines emissions estimates from three satellite instruments instead of just OMI, uses a new version 2 of the OMI and OMPS SO2 dataset, and updated consistent site-specific air mass factors (AMFs) are used to calculate SO2 vertical column densities (VCDs). The newest TROPOMI SO2 data processed with the Covariance-Based Retrieval Algorithm (COBRA), used in the catalogue, can detect sources with emissions as low as 8 kt yr−1 (in 2018–2021) compared to the 30 kt yr−1 limit for OMI. In general, there is an overall agreement within ±12 % in total emissions estimated from the three satellite instruments for large regions. For individual emission sources, the spread is larger: the annual emissions estimated from OMI and TROPOMI agree within ±13 % in 50 % of cases and within ±28 % in 90 % of cases. The version 2 catalogue emissions were calculated as a weighted average of emission estimates from the three satellite instruments using an inverse-variance weighting method. OMI, OMPS, and TROPOMI data contribute 7 %, 5 %, and 88 % to the average, respectively, for small (<30 kt yr−1) sources and 33 %, 20 %, and 47 %, respectively, for large (>300 kt yr−1) sources. The catalogue data show an approximate 50 % decline in global SO2 emissions between 2005 and 2021, although emissions were relatively stable during the last 3 years. The version 2 of the global catalogue has been posted at the NASA global SO2 monitoring website (https://doi.org/10.5067/MEASURES/SO2/DATA406, Fioletov et al., 2022).

Investigations on the Global Spread of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Volcanic Eruption Using Space-Based Observations and Lagrangian Transport Simulations

On 15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) (175.38° W, 20.54° S) volcano erupted explosively. It is considered the most explosive volcanic eruption during the past 140 years. The HTHH volcanic eruption caused intense ripples, Lamb waves, and gravity waves in the atmosphere which encircled the globe several times, as reported by different studies. In this study, using OMI, SAGE-III/ISS, and CALIPSO satellite observations, we investigated the spread of the volcanic SO2 cloud due to the HTHH eruption and subsequent formation of sulfuric acid clouds in the stratosphere. It took about 19–21 days for the stratospheric SO2 injections of the HTHH to encircle the globe longitudinally due to a dominant westward jet with wind speeds of ~2500 km/day, and it slowly dispersed over the whole globe within several months due to poleward spread. The formation of sulfuric acid clouds intensified after about a month, causing the more frequent occurrence of high aerosol optical depth elevated layers in the stratosphere at an altitude of about 20–26 km. This study deals with the dynamics of volcanic plume spread in the stratosphere, knowledge of which is essential in estimating the accurate radiative effects caused by perturbations in the earth–atmosphere system due to a volcanic eruption. In addition, this knowledge provides important input for studies related to the geo-engineering of the earth’s atmosphere by injecting particulates and gases into the stratosphere.

Wind Speed as a Dominant Source of Periodicities in Reported Emission Rates of Volcanic SO2

AbstractVolcanoes have been found to display periodicities or cyclic trends in a wide range of phenomena. These include the eruptive activity itself, but also in the time series of geophysical and geochemical monitoring data such as volcanic degassing. Here, we test the existence of periodicities of volcanic degassing at 32 volcanoes using the time series of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rates from data of the Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change (NOVAC). We use the Lomb‐Scargle periodogram to analyze the SO2 data which allows efficient computation of a Fourier‐like power spectrum from unevenly sampled data. We were able to calculate False‐Alarm Probabilities in 28 of the 32 volcanoes, and we identified significant periodicities in the SO2 emission rates in 17 of the 28 volcanoes. However, we find that most of these periodicities are also present in the plume speeds used to determine SO2 emission rates. Periodicities at about 30–70, ∼120, and ∼180 days were identified at volcanoes located between 16°N and 16°S and are related to intraseasonality and interseasonality in global trade winds and not volcanic in origin. Periodicities between 30 and 70 days in both plume speed and SO2 emission rates are associated to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation that is responsible for intraseasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere. Our study highlights the importance of using local wind data for deriving realistic SO2 emissions and the identification of short‐term periodicity in volcanic behavior.

Net-zero catastrophe beginning?

Historically, warm eras such as the Minoan Warm Period, the Roman Warm Period, and the Medieval Warm Period were all eras where there was very little volcanic activity, with the result that their atmospheres were normally free of dimming volcanic SO2 aerosol emissions, This allowed world-wide temperatures to rise 2 to 4 degrees above current temperatures, causing droughts, famines, and the demise of earlier cultures around the world. Current Net-Zero activities banning the burning of fossil fuels and their SO2 aerosol emissions will have the unintended consequence of causing temperatures to rise to those of the earlier eras.

Modelling SO2 conversion into sulfates in the mid-troposphere with a 3D chemistry transport model: the case of Mount Etna's eruption on 12 April 2012

Abstract. Volcanic activity is an important source of atmospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2), which, after conversion into sulfuric acid, induces impacts on rain acidity, human health, meteorology and the radiative balance of the atmosphere, among others. This work focuses on the conversion of SO2 into sulfates (SO4(p)2-, S(+VI)) in the mid-tropospheric volcanic plume emitted by the explosive eruption of Mount Etna (Italy) on 12 April 2012, using the CHIMERE chemistry transport model. As the volcanic plume location and composition depend on several often poorly constrained parameters, using a chemistry transport model allows us to study the sensitivity of SO2 oxidation to multiple aspects, such as volcanic water emissions, transition metal emissions, plume diffusion and plume altitude. Our results show that two pathways contribute to sulfate production in the mid-troposphere: (1) the oxidation of SO2 by OH in the gaseous phase (70 %) and (2) aqueous oxidation by O2 catalysed by Mn2+ and Fe3+ ions (25 %). Oxidation in the aqueous phase is the faster process, but liquid water is scarce in the mid-troposphere; therefore, the relative share of gaseous oxidation can be important. After 1 d in the mid-troposphere, about 0.5 % of the volcanic SO2 was converted to sulfates via the gaseous process. Because of the nonlinear dependency of the kinetics in the aqueous phase on the amount of volcanic water emitted and on the availability of transition metals in the aqueous phase, several experiments have been designed to determine the prominence of different parameters. Our simulations show that, during the short time that liquid water remains in the plume, around 0.4 % of sulfates manage to quickly enter the liquid phase. Sensitivity tests regarding the advection scheme have shown that this scheme must be chosen wisely, as dispersion will impact both of the oxidation pathways explained above.

Modeling the atmospheric dispersion of SO2 from Mount Nyiragongo

Mount Nyiragongo, an active volcano, is the most dominant natural source of sulphur dioxide (SO2) in Africa. While a number of studies have employed atmospheric models to simulate the dispersion of SO2 from this mountain, prior to this study, no attempt has been made to use deep learning to bias correct the model's estimates. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) was used to simulate massive SO2 plumes degassed from this mountain between September 2014 and August 2015. Satellite observations by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) showed that the SO2 spread to over 500 km from the volcano site. A deep convolutional autoencoder algorithm (WRF-DCA) was then applied to reduce the bias that WRF-Chem showed against the OMI observations. Finally, the correction performance of WRF-DCA was compared with a conventional bias correction method, linear scaling (WRF-LS). The performance of WRF-Chem, WRF-DCA, and WRF-LS was analyzed using three metrics, that is, the normalized mean bias (NMB), the root mean square error (RMSE), and Pearson's correlation coefficient (R). The results showed that WRF-Chem overestimated SO2 at locations near the volcano site and underestimated SO2 at locations further away from the volcano site. It generated an overall average NMB of −0.61 against the OMI observations. Respectively, WRF-DCA and WRF-LS reduced this bias by an average of 0.25 (40.9%) and 0.21 (34.4%). Furthermore, although both methods also reduced the RMSE and improved the correlation, WRF-DCA consistently performed better than WRF-LS. This study demonstrates the advantage that deep learning can provide in estimating volcanic SO2 emissions.

Out of the blue: Volcanic SO2 emissions during the 2021–2022 eruptions of Hunga Tonga—Hunga Ha’apai (Tonga)

Most volcanism on Earth is submarine, but volcanic gas emissions by submarine eruptions are rarely observed and hence largely unquantified. On 15 January 2022 a submarine eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) volcano (Tonga) generated an explosion of historic magnitude, and was preceded by ∼1 month of Surtseyan eruptive activity and two precursory explosive eruptions. We present an analysis of ultraviolet (UV) satellite measurements of volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) between December 2021 and the climactic 15 January 2022 eruption, comprising an unprecedented record of Surtseyan eruptive emissions. UV measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite, the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) on Suomi-NPP, the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on ESA’s Sentinel-5P, and the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) aboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) are combined to yield a consistent multi-sensor record of eruptive degassing. We estimate SO2 emissions during the eruption’s key phases: the initial 19 December 2021 eruption (∼0.01 Tg SO2); continuous SO2 emissions from 20 December 2021—early January 2022 (∼0.12 Tg SO2); the 13 January 2022 stratospheric eruption (0.06 Tg SO2); and the paroxysmal 15 January 2022 eruption (∼0.4–0.5 Tg SO2); yielding a total SO2 emission of ∼0.6–0.7 Tg SO2 for the eruptive episode. We interpret the vigorous SO2 emissions observed prior to the January 2022 eruptions, which were significantly higher than measured in the 2009 and 2014 HTHH eruptions, as strong evidence for a rejuvenated magmatic system. High cadence DSCOVR/EPIC SO2 imagery permits the first UV-based analysis of umbrella cloud spreading and volume flux in the 13 January 2022 eruption, and also tracks early dispersion of the stratospheric SO2 cloud injected on January 15. The ∼0.4–0.5 Tg SO2 discharged by the paroxysmal 15 January 2022 HTHH eruption is low relative to other eruptions of similar magnitude, and a review of other submarine eruptions in the satellite era indicates that modest SO2 yields may be characteristic of submarine volcanism, with the emissions and atmospheric impacts likely dominated by water vapor. The origin of the low SO2 loading awaits further investigation but scrubbing of SO2 in the water-rich eruption plumes and rapid conversion to sulfate aerosol are plausible, given the exceptional water emission by the 15 January 2022 HTHH eruption.

Modest volcanic SO2 emissions from the Indonesian archipelago

Indonesia hosts the largest number of active volcanoes, several of which are renowned for climate-changing historical eruptions. This pedigree might suggest a substantial fraction of global volcanic sulfur emissions from Indonesia and are intrinsically driven by sulfur-rich magmas. However, a paucity of observations has hampered evaluation of these points—many volcanoes have hitherto not been subject to emissions measurements. Here we report new gas measurements from Indonesian volcanoes. The combined SO2 output amounts to 1.15 ± 0.48 Tg/yr. We estimate an additional time-averaged SO2 yield of 0.12-0.54 Tg/yr for explosive eruptions, indicating a total SO2 inventory of 1.27-1.69 Tg/yr for Indonesian. This is comparatively modest—individual volcanoes such as Etna have sustained higher fluxes. To understand this paradox, we compare the geodynamic, petrologic, magma dynamical and shallow magmatic-hydrothermal processes that influence the sulfur transfer to the atmosphere. Results reinforce the idea that sulfur-rich eruptions reflect long-term accumulation of volatiles in the reservoirs.

Volcanic SO<sub>2</sub> layer height by TROPOMI/S5P: evaluation against IASI/MetOp and CALIOP/CALIPSO observations

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions eject large amounts of ash and trace gases such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the atmosphere. A significant difficulty in mitigating the impact of volcanic SO2 clouds on air traffic safety is that these gas emissions can be rapidly transported over long distances. The use of space-borne instruments enables the global monitoring of volcanic SO2 emissions in an economical and risk-free manner. Within the European Space Agency (ESA) Sentinel-5p+ Innovation project, the S5P SO2 layer height (S5P+I: SO2LH) activities led to the improvements of the retrieval algorithm and generation of the corresponding near real-time S5P SO2 LH products. These are currently operationally provided, in near real-time, by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) within the framework of the Innovative Products for Analyses of Atmospheric Composition (INPULS) project. The main aim of this paper is to present its extensive verification, accomplished within the S5P+I: SO2LH project, over major recent volcanic eruptions, against collocated space-borne measurements from the IASI/Metop and CALIOP/CALIPSO instruments as well as assess its impact on the forecasts provided by the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). The mean difference between S5P and IASI observations for the Raikoke 2019, the Nishinoshima 2020 and the La Soufrière-St Vincent 2021 eruptive periods is ∼ 0.5 ± 3 km, while for the Taal 2020 eruption, a larger difference was found, between 3 ± 3 km and 4 ± 3 km. The comparison of the daily mean SO2 LH further demonstrates the capabilities of this near real-time product, with slopes between 0.8 and 1 and correlation coefficients ranging between 0.6 and 0.8. Comparisons between the S5P SO2 LH and the CALIOP/CALIPSO ash plumes revealed an expected bias at −2.5 ± 2 km, considering that the injected SO2 and ash plume locations do not always coincide over an eruption. Furthermore, the CAMS assimilation of the S5P SO2 LH product led to much improved model output against the non-assimilated IASI LH, with a mean difference of 1.5 ± 2 km, compared to the original CAMS analysis, and improved the geographical spread of the Raikoke volcanic plume following the eruptive days.

Volcanic Climate Warming Through Radiative and Dynamical Feedbacks of SO2 Emissions

AbstractVolcanic flood basalt eruptions have been linked to or are contemporaneous with major climate disruptions, ocean anoxic events, and mass extinctions throughout at least the last 400 M years of Earth's history. Previous studies and recent history have shown that volcanically‐driven climate cooling can occur through reflection of sunlight by H2SO4 aerosols, while longer‐term climate warming can occur via CO2 emissions. We use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry‐Climate Model to simulate a 4‐year duration volcanic SO2 emission of the scale of the Wapshilla Ridge member of the Columbia River Basalt eruption. Brief cooling from H2SO4 aerosols is outweighed by dynamically and radiatively driven warming of the climate through a three orders of magnitude increase in stratospheric H2O vapor.

Effectiveness of low-cost air quality monitors for identifying volcanic SO₂ and PM downwind from Masaya volcano, Nicaragua

Gas and particulate matter (PM) emissions from Masaya volcano, Nicaragua, cause substantial regional volcanic air pollution (VAP). We evaluate the suitability of low-cost SO2 and PM sensors for a continuous air-quality network. The network was deployed for six months in five populated areas (4-16 km from crater). The SO2 sensors failed and recorded erroneous values on multiple occasions, likely due to corrosion, requiring significant maintenance commitment. The PM sensors were found to be robust but data required correction for humidity. SO2 measurements could not be used as stand-alone tools to detect occurrence of VAP episodes (VAPE), but SO2/PM correlation reliably achieved this at near-field stations, as confirmed by meteorological forecasts and satellite imagery. Above-background PM concentrations reliably identified VAPE at both near-field and far-field stations. We suggest that a continuous network can be built from a combination of low-cost PM and SO2 sensors with a greater number of PM-only sensors.

Assessing the effectiveness of low-cost air quality monitors for identifying volcanic SO2 and PM downwind from Masaya volcano, Nicaragua

Gas and particulate matter (PM) emissions from Masaya volcano, Nicaragua, cause substantial regional volcanic air pollution (VAP). We evaluate the suitability of low-cost SO2 and PM sensors for a continuous air-quality network. The network was deployed for six months in five populated areas (4–16 km from crater). The SO2 sensors failed and recorded erroneous values on multiple occasions, likely due to corrosion, requiring significant maintenance commitment. The PM sensors were found to be robust but data required correction for humidity. SO2 measurements could not be used as stand-alone tools to detect occurrence of VAP episodes (VAPE), but an SO2/PM correlation reliably achieved this at near-field stations, as confirmed by meteorological forecasts and satellite imagery. Above-background PM concentrations reliably identified VAPE at both near-field and far-field stations. We suggest that a continuous network can be built from a combination of low-cost PM and SO2 sensors with a greater number of PM-only sensors.

Ensemble-Based Forecast of Volcanic Clouds Using FALL3D-8.1

Operational forecasting of volcanic ash and SO2 clouds is challenging due to the large uncertainties that typically exist on the eruption source term and the mass removal mechanisms occurring downwind. Current operational forecast systems build on single-run deterministic scenarios that do not account for model input uncertainties and their propagation in time during transport. An ensemble-based forecast strategy has been implemented in the FALL3D-8.1 atmospheric dispersal model to configure, execute, and post-process an arbitrary number of ensemble members in a parallel workflow. In addition to intra-member model domain decomposition, a set of inter-member communicators defines a higher level of code parallelism to enable future incorporation of model data assimilation cycles. Two types of standard products are automatically generated by the ensemble post-process task. On one hand, deterministic forecast products result from some combination of the ensemble members (e.g., ensemble mean, ensemble median, etc.) with an associated quantification of forecast uncertainty given by the ensemble spread. On the other hand, probabilistic products can also be built based on the percentage of members that verify a certain threshold condition. The novel aspect of FALL3D-8.1 is the automatisation of the ensemble-based workflow, including an eventual model validation. To this purpose, novel categorical forecast diagnostic metrics, originally defined in deterministic forecast contexts, are generalised here to probabilistic forecasts in order to have a unique set of skill scores valid to both deterministic and probabilistic forecast contexts. Ensemble-based deterministic and probabilistic approaches are compared using different types of observation datasets (satellite cloud detection and retrieval and deposit thickness observations) for the July 2018 Ambae eruption in the Vanuatu archipelago and the April 2015 Calbuco eruption in Chile. Both ensemble-based approaches outperform single-run simulations in all categorical metrics but no clear conclusion can be extracted on which is the best option between these two.

Modeling the Sulfate Aerosol Evolution After Recent Moderate Volcanic Activity, 2008–2012

AbstractVolcanic activity is a major natural climate forcing and an accurate representation of volcanic aerosols in global climate models is essential. This is a complex task involving many uncertainties in the model design and setup and observations. We analyze the performance of the aerosol‐chemistry‐climate model SOCOL‐AERv2 for three medium‐sized volcanic eruptions. We focus on the impact of differences in volcanic plume height and SO2 estimates on the stratospheric aerosol burden. The influence of internal model variability and dynamics are addressed through an ensemble of free‐running and nudged simulations at different vertical resolutions. Comparing the modeled evolution of the stratospheric aerosol loading to satellite measurements reveals a good model performance. However, a conclusive validation is complicated by uncertainties in observations and emission estimates. The large spread in emitted sulfur amount and its vertical distribution consequently lead to differences in simulated aerosol burdens. Varying tropopause heights among free‐running simulations add to these differences, modulating the amount of sulfur injected into the stratosphere. In nudged mode, volcanic aerosol burden peaks are well reproduced, however changes in convection and clouds affect SO2 oxidation paths and cross‐tropopause transport, leading to increased background burdens compared to observations. This effect can be reduced by leaving temperatures unconstrained. A higher vertical resolution of 90 levels increases the stratospheric residence time of sulfate aerosol by reducing the diffusion out of the tropical reservoir. We conclude that the model set‐up (vertical resolution and free‐running vs. nudged) as well as forcing parameters (volcanic emission strength and plume height) contribute equally to the model uncertainties.

Felsic volcanism as a factor driving the end-Permian mass extinction.

The Siberian Traps large igneous province (STLIP) is commonly invoked as the primary driver of global environmental changes that triggered the end-Permian mass extinction (EPME). Here, we explore the contributions of coeval felsic volcanism to end-Permian environmental changes. We report evidence of extreme Cu enrichment in the EPME interval in South China. The enrichment is associated with an increase in the light Cu isotope, melt inclusions rich in copper and sulfides, and Hg concentration spikes. The Cu and Hg elemental and isotopic signatures can be linked to S-rich vapor produced by felsic volcanism. We use these previously unknown geochemical data to estimate volcanic SO2 injections and argue that this volcanism would have produced several degrees of rapid cooling before or coincident with the more protracted global warming. Large-scale eruptions near the South China block synchronous with the EPME strengthen the case that the STLIP may not have been the sole trigger.