Volatility Transmission Research Articles

The dynamic volatility nexus of geo-political risks, stocks, bond, bitcoin, gold and oil during COVID-19 and Russian-Ukraine war.

We investigate the dynamic volatility connectedness of geopolitical risk, stocks, bonds, bitcoin, gold, and oil from January 2018 to April 2022 in this study. We look at connectivity during the Pre-COVID, COVID, and Russian-Ukraine war subsamples. During the COVID-19 and Russian-Ukraine war periods, we find that conventional, Islamic, and sustainable stock indices are net volatility transmitters, whereas gold, US bonds, GPR, oil, and bitcoin are net volatility receivers. During the Russian-Ukraine war, the commodity index (DJCI) shifted from being a net recipient of volatility to a net transmitter of volatility. Furthermore, we discover that bilateral intercorrelations are strong within stock indices (DJWI, DJIM, and DJSI) but weak across all other financial assets. Our study has important implications for policymakers, regulators, investors, and financial market participants who want to improve their existing strategies for avoiding financial losses.

Market volatility and crisis dynamics: a comprehensive analysis of U.S., China, India, and Pakistan stock markets with oil and gold interconnections during COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine war periods

The objective of this paper is to explore the interconnectedness of volatility among the stock markets of U.S., China, India, and Pakistan in conjunction with oil and gold markets. Employing the novel Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model for assessing connectedness, the study scrutinizes key patterns of dependency and interrelation between these markets. Furthermore, this study investigates the dynamic connectedness during the global health crisis due to COVID-19 and the geopolitical crisis due to Russia–Ukraine war periods to identify the changes in their relationship following the two crises episodes. The findings underscore the significance of volatility transmissions emanating from the U.S., a developed market, in shaping these dynamic linkages. It is observed that oil and gold returns play a limited role as sources of shocks for market returns in China, India, and Pakistan, suggesting a relatively lower contribution of oil and gold to equity market volatility. The results also emphasize the safe-haven characteristics of gold during periods of crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. Moreover, the study indicates that the volatility transmissions during the COVID-19 pandemic are more pronounced compared to the Russia–Ukraine war crisis. These findings hold notable implications for both investors and policymakers, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of market dynamics and the development of risk-averse strategies, particularly in times of crisis.

Bitcoin halving and the integration of cryptocurrency and forex markets: An analysis of the higher-order moment spillovers

This paper introduces a flexible semi-nonparametric model, the so-called SNP-VSK model, to analyze the higher-order moment interactions among cryptocurrencies and the forex markets, i.e., accounting for conditional volatility, skewness, and kurtosis spillovers. These transmissions among cryptos are identified considering Bitcoin halving as a factor of price uncertainty. To study the degree of integration of cryptocurrency markets in the economy, spillover effects with the forex market are considered, showing that Bitcoin and Ethereum are the prime receivers of positive volatility transmission, a sign of integration with the currency markets, but also potential sources of financial instability.

The Dynamic Connectedness Between Environmental Attention and Green Cryptocurrency

The results indicate a dynamic pattern of interconnectedness throughout history. Based on the findings, the transmission of volatility exhibited a higher magnitude during the period of COVID-19. The issue of high transmission volatility due to limited diversification options concerns investors, green stakeholders, and policymakers alike. This article proposes various potential areas for future research. The ICEA index can potentially assist businesses operating in environmentally sensitive sectors make well-informed policy decisions. It includes sectors such as environmental green bonds, and commodities. Consideration should be given to implementing blockchain technology, as it can consume less power in this particular scenario. By employing a time-frequency paradigm, this study is able to incorporate the investment horizon, a crucial factor to be taken into account when making financial judgments. The advancement of this research could be facilitated by directing our attention toward the implications of our findings on portfolios and developing appropriate measures for their evaluation.

A Comparative Analysis of the Development Status of China-U.S. Stock Markets from the Perspective of Neo-Realism

The relationship between China and the United States has undergone great changes, from cooperation to competition or even confrontation. It is of great significance to analyze the relationship between them from the perspective of neo-realism. With the deepening of global financial integration and the gradual opening up, the volatility transmission among stock markets in various countries has become more and more obvious. The stock market has become an important part of China's financial system, which is of great significance to improve the efficiency of capital operation and reduce the financing cost of enterprises. And the United States and China have formulated their stock market policies based on neo-realism. The United States needs to face up to China's economic strength and safeguard its interests through global financial hegemony. China needs to face up to the reality and enhance the global financial influence in order to safeguard its stock market.

Return and volatility transmission among economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and precious metals

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the return and volatility transmission among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), their interaction (EPGR) and five tradable precious metals: gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium.Design/methodology/approachApplying time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) frequency-based connectedness approach to a data set spanning from January 1997 to February 2023, the study analyzes return and volatility connectedness separately, providing insights into how the data, in return and volatility forms, differ across time and frequency.FindingsThe results of the return connectedness show that gold, palladium and silver are affected more by EPU in the short term, while all precious metals are influenced by GPR in the short term. EPGR exhibits strong contributions to the system due to its elevated levels of policy uncertainty and extreme global risks. Palladium shows the highest reaction to EPGR, while silver shows the lowest. Return spillovers are generally time-varying and spike during critical global events. The volatility connectedness is long-term driven, suggesting that uncertainty and risk factors influence market participants’ long-term expectations. Notable peaks in total connectedness occurred during the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, with the latter being the highest.Originality/valueUsing the recently updated news-based uncertainty indicators, the study examines the time and frequency connectedness between key uncertainty measures and precious metals in their returns and volatility forms using the TVP-VAR frequency-based connectedness approach.

The exchange rates volatilities impact on the stock and real estate markets in South Africa

Purpose Understanding which market to invest in for a well-diversified portfolio is fundamental in economies that are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates. Extant literature that has considered phenomenon hardly juxtapose the markets. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of exchange rate volatility on the Stock and Real Estate market of South Africa. The essence is to determine whether the fluctuations in the exchange rate influence the markets prices differently. Design/methodology/approach The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [GARCH (1.1)] model was used in establishing the effect of exchange rate volatility on both markets. This study used monthly South African data between 2000 and 2020. Findings The results of this study showed that increased exchange rate volatility increases stock market volatility but decreases real-estate market volatility, both of which revealed weak influences from the exchange rates volatility. Practical implications This study has implication for policy in using the exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment. The weak volatility transmission from the exchange rate market to the stock and real estate market indicates that there is prospect for foreign investors to diversify their investments in these two markets. Originality/value This study investigated which of the assets market, stock or housing market do better in volatile exchange rate conditions in South Africa.

Dynamic spillovers and connectedness between crude oil and green bond markets

In this paper, we examine dynamic frequency spillovers, co-movements and volatility transmission among green bond yields and crude oil. We use different econometric methods including the Baruník and Křehlík (2018) [thereafter BK-18], DCC-GARCH, BEKK-GJR-GARCH, and Wavelet coherence. The results of BK-18 show that the spillover between green bonds is higher in short-term horizons than in intermediate- and long-term horizons. Furthermore, Industrial and Securitized ABS bonds are weakly connected with other green bonds. The findings of BEKK-GJR-GARCH model shows the negative unidirectional volatility spillover from oil to Global GB markets, indicating the hedging ability of green bonds against the oil. The dynamic conditional correlations are negative between oil and Industrial and Securitized ABS over sample period, suggesting them as strong hedge and safe haven against the oil. The Wavelet Coherence analysis reveals that the connectedness is weak between crude oil and green bonds in most of the short and long run. However, we observe the leading role of oil against green bonds in for short period of time. Finally, the spillovers and hedging effectiveness results reveal that the crude-oil- and green-bond-based portfolios provide huge diversification benefits to investors and portfolio managers.

Uncertainties and Dynamic Connectedness Among Sectors: A Case of the USA, India, France, Germany and Russia

This study examines the connectedness among the sectoral indices for the USA, India, France, Germany and Russia stock markets pre and post-COVID-19. We use the Diebold and Yilmaz spillover index to examine the study's objectives. This study finds that volatility spillover is higher during COVID-19 than before COVID-19. In addition, the volatility transmission across the sectors demonstrated mixed results regarding net volatility receivers and transmitters. However, the degree of transmission is higher for the net volatility receivers than for the net volatility transmitters. This study will help policymakers draft related policies to immunise their economy and market from spillover contagions of international markets during varying pandemic scenarios. This study would also help potential investors, including foreign institutional investors, diversify their portfolios based on the sectors with net volatility transmitters and receivers.

Gas Price Caps and Volatility Transmission in Commodity and Equity Markets

Gas Price Caps and Volatility Transmission in Commodity and Equity Markets

COVID-19’s Impact on the Travel & Leisure Indices: Volatility Spillover Analysis

The travel and leisure sector is extremely sensitive to fluctuations in economic circumstances, consumer demand, and market volatility. This sector has been greatly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic due to both travel restrictions and social distancing measures that have limited demand. This study aims to examine the impact of Covid-19 on the volatility spillovers of travel and leisure indices in nine significant markets. It examines the differences in spillover effects pre- and during-Covid-19, employing comparative analysis. The results show that the pandemic has led to an increase in volatility spillover between travel and leisure indices. Moreover, significant changes are evident in the spillover effects between periods, reflecting the dynamic nature of volatility transmission. The results show that changes in consumer spending and restrictions on international travel, in the travel and leisure industry have a bigger impact on volatility spillovers in this sector than on stock exchange indices. These outcomes hold significant implications for sector participants, underscoring the need for resilient strategies to mitigate the impact of global crises on market volatility spillovers.

Shifting the paradigm for securing efficient management of exchange rate in Nigeria: A GARCH and BEKK-MGARCH analysis

The influence of foreign exchange on all spheres of any economy is germane to determining its extent of development. Most developing countries have been subjected to managing the integrity of the exchange rate arising from their disadvantageous position in world trade. Nigeria is not an exemption either; this is due to its constant interventions in the foreign exchange market from time to time and by the policy of the existing government in power. However, the interventionist policy framework has been more harmful to Naira as the currency depreciates unabatedly. The pertinent question is whether monetary policy should be the only approach to effective exchange rate management or be combined with fiscal and income policies. Irrespective of the policy choice, the aim, target, and instrument must be complementary without unnecessary disruptions midway, as usually experienced in Nigeria. These inconsistencies have come to bear enormously on the country's exchange rate management. Rather than focusing on the impact of exchange rate volatility on industrial development that could warrant foreign exchange inflows, this paper considers industrialization as an approach to effectively managing exchange rates in Nigeria. This analysis employs a univariate GARCH and BEKK-MGARCH model, using high-frequency monthly time series data from 2000 to 2019, to examine the volatility transmission between the foreign exchange market and the industrial sector. The model estimation uses the Conditional Maximum Likelihood Technique (CMLT). It was discovered that industrial development positively influenced the official market exchange rate compared to the parallel market exchange rate, reducing its volatility. The study thus suggests the vigorous pursuit of foreign exchange earnings and usage policy by earning entities, floating Diaspora bonds, enhancing and encouraging remittances and repatriation of illicit financial outflows to enhance industrialization. This will discourage arbitraging, increasing foreign exchange inflows and stabilizing the economy.

Exploring Volatility Spillover Dynamics between Emerging South Asian Stock Markets and the U.S. Market: Empirical Insights from the M-GARCH-BEKK Framework

Abstract: This study investigates the volatility spillover between emerging South Asian equity markets and developed U.S. market. Specifically, the study examines the entire sample period and three sub-periods: pre-crisis, crisis, and post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) periods in the emerging markets of Pakistan, India, and Sri Lanka, as well as the U.S. as developed stock market. The study analyses both unidirectional and bidirectional shock and volatility spillover among the markets to determine the direction of risk transmissions. The analysis utilizes a multivariate GARCH-BEKK model. The results indicate that volatility transmissions increased due to the GFC. Furthermore, the South Asian emerging markets exhibit shock and volatility spillover during the crisis period compared to the pre- and post-crisis periods. Additionally, the patterns of risk transmission were time-varying. These findings support the notion that market volatility increases during turbulent events, such as the Global Financial Crisis. The implications of these results are important for policymakers, investors, and researchers interested in international diversification and market efficiency within the studied markets especially during turbulent periods.

Does the COVID-19 pandemic strengthen the volatility spillovers across global stock markets?

This paper investigates the volatility spillover and connectedness among the stock markets of G7, BRICS countries, and other countries where COVID-19 is more severe. For this investigation, we perform static and rolling-window analysis to measure volatility spillovers using the spillover index approach and LASSO-VAR for estimating high-dimensional VARs. We also examine the network connectedness at different periods. Our findings indicate that the recent COVID-19 pandemic intensifies volatility spillovers, supporting the financial contagion effects. Furthermore, the United States, Spain, and Russia markets are net volatility transmitters for most of the period before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Comparison of U.S.-China Futures and Spot Market Price Conduction: Based on the Study of Wheat Market

In-depth exploration of the difference of price transmission capacity between Chinese and world agricultural futures market is beneficial to understand the efficiency of Chinese futures market. Studying its transmission mechanism can deepen the understanding of the characteristics of wheat market price fluctuations, which is important to further guide the development of China's futures market and ensure China's wheat industry to develop healthily. This paper uses the VAR model and ARMA-GARCHX model to analyze and compare the prices of futures and spot market in China and the United States from the perspective of yield and volatility transmission. The results show that futures and spot market prices of China and the United States have a mutual guiding relationship, and the price guidance role of the United States in both markets is stronger than China. Then, compared with the spot price, the transmission of futures prices is more comprehensive and significant. Considering the results, China needs to deepen the reform of the futures market and implement precise policies to enhance the ability of market price discovery.

Who are the receivers and transmitters of volatility spillovers: oil, clean energy, and green and non-green cryptocurrency markets.

In the context of clean energy and green cryptocurrency development, the relationship between energy and cryptocurrency markets deserves further exploration. This study employs a quantile time-frequency connectedness approach to measure the dynamic connectedness and volatility propagation mechanisms between oil, clean energy, green cryptocurrency (GC), and non-green cryptocurrency (NGC) markets. Our findings suggest that, at median and low volatility levels, the oil and clean energy markets act as net receivers, taking on volatility spillovers from cryptocurrency markets. However, at high volatility levels, oil and clean energy markets transform into net transmitters. Most NGCs are volatility transmitters, while most GCs are volatility receivers in the median and extremely high volatility cases. We also observe that the total connectedness index (TCI) is heterogeneous over time and dependent on economic events. At median and low volatility levels, the short-run TCI makes the primary contribution. On the other hand, for high volatility levels, where short-term TCI does not have an absolute advantage, long-term TCI plays a greater role in many periods. Additionally, there is asymmetry in the TCI (including long-term and short-term TCI) at the quantile level. In the median and extreme scenarios, the COVID-19 has caused different levels of shock on oil, clean energy, GC, and NGC markets connectedness.

Spillovers and hedging effectiveness between oil and US equity sectors: Evidence from the COVID pre- and post-vaccination phases

We examine the return and volatility transmission between oil and US equity sectors during three periods: the pre-COVID-19 phase, COVID-19 pre-vaccination phase, and COVID-19 post-vaccination phase. We show that the return and volatility spillovers between oil and US equity sectors vary across these three phases. The highest return connectedness is observed during the post-vaccination phase. The volatility spillover is highest from the majority of sectors to oil market in the COVID-19 pre-vaccination phase. The volatility transmission from oil to US equities during COVID-19 is weak. Moreover, our optimal weights estimations suggest that investors should decrease their exposures in US equities for the portfolio of oil-equity sectors in the COVID-19 post-vaccination phase. Finally, hedging cost is lowest, and hedging effectiveness is highest during the post-vaccination phase. Our findings provide valuable insights to portfolio managers and investors regarding portfolio diversification, hedging, and forecasting during health crises and subsequent recovery phases.

Oil Price Fluctuation And Exchange Rate In Nigeria: Is There A Volatility Transmission Effect

Over the period 1980-2022, we examined the transmission effect of oil prices on Nigeria's exchange rate. E-GARCH (Exponential GARCH) model is employed in this study. We used Augmented Dickey Fuller to determine a unit root, integrating exchange rates, crude oil prices, external reserves, GDP, inflation, and interest rates to one I(1) and zero I(0). We used Johansen Co-integration to determine long-term relationships. Interest rates, inflation, and crude oil prices all correlated positively with each other. A statistically insignificant result is shown by the variance equation, indicating there is no correlation between crude oil prices and exchange rates. The Nigerian exchange rate is not affected by volatility transmission or leverage due to fluctuations in crude oil prices. According to the study, governments should take monetary policy measures to stabilize exchange rates during unpredictable oil price fluctuations. It is necessary to adjust the naira exchange rate when oil prices fluctuate.

Return volatility transmission among Asian stock exchanges: Evidence from a heterogeneous market outlook

This pragmatic research strives to reveal the return volatility transmission throughout Asian stock exchanges, by employing variance decomposition technique of Vector autoregressive (VAR) based framework. Additionally, the current examination exerts a Granger causality approach to detect short-term cause and effect among the stock exchanges. The consequence of volatility spill-over exhibits the dominancy of Indian, Chinese and Japanese exchanges in terms of net volatility transmitter. Further, it is found that Korean, Thai, and Malaysian stock exchanges seem to be net receiver of volatility in Asia. Additionally, the outcome of current investigation reveals neutrality of Bangladeshi and Pakistani stock exchange, as the returns volatility of these stock exchange are not influenced by any other Asian stock exchanges. Furthermore, the result of Granger causality analysis signifies the existence of unidirectional causality among the Asian stock exchanges. In terms of policy implication, it is imperative for investors and policymakers to closely monitor the behaviour of the Japanese stock exchange, as it plays a significant role as a net transmitter of volatility to other stock exchanges in Asia. By keeping a vigilant eye on the Japanese stock exchange, investors can better assess and manage potential risks and opportunities in the region.

TVP-VAR Frequency Connectedness Between the Foreign Exchange Rates of Non-Euro Area Member Countries

Abstract Research background The main purpose of monetary integration between EU countries is to eliminate excessive fluctuations in exchange rates. High volatility in exchange rates can cause various negative economic and financial effects, especially during periods of economic shocks. In addition, estimating the volatility between currencies and their interactions is of great importance for effective portfolio management. Purpose The objective of this research is to scrutinize the transmission of volatility between the currencies of those European Union nations that do not participate in the EURO area, focusing on the exchange rate parity of the US Dollar with seven non-EURO zone currencies. Research methodology Daily volatility in exchange rates was calculated using the Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang (GK-YZ) method. To investigate the connectedness between these volatilities, we used the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) frequency connectedness approach. Results The Average Total Connectedness Index exhibits a significant degree of connectedness of approximately 71.84%. The Net Total Directional Connectedness Index indicates that the CZK, DKK and RON exchange rates are net beneficiaries in aggregate and in a longer term perspective, whereas the DKK, HUF and PLN exchange rates are net beneficiaries in a shorter term horizon. In the context of major global events such as the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020 and the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, it could be observed that the dynamic Total Connectedness Index exhibited a substantial increase, both overall and from a long-term perspective, corroborating theoretical expectations. According to the Net Pairwise Directional Connectedness index, the highest bilateral connectedness overall and in the short run was between DKK and RON, while in the long run between BGN and DKK. Novelty Examining the connectedness of currencies is of great importance for investors doing business with foreign currency, international cooperation and policies, risk management and portfolio management. Determining the connectedness in different frequency (short and long-term) ranges provides important information for hedging risk. In addition, the bilateral connectedness between currencies is a guide for effective portfolio diversification.