Use Of Early Warning System Research Articles

Analysis of twin deficits hypothesis in Indonesia and its impact on financial crisis

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the current account and budget deficit (twin deficits hypothesis), measuring the account performance and other macroeconomic indicators in predicting the debt crisis in Indonesia. Furthermore, the data used for hypothesis was obtained from 2004q1-2017q4, followed by the application of the ARDL method, while values based on debt crisis were taken from the year 1981–2017, and indicators performance measurement required the use of Early Warning System (EWS) method, which was conducted through Quadratic Probability Score (QPS), and Global Squared Bias (GSB). The results indicate a long-term positive relationship between the current account and budget deficit (twin deficits), while the short-term studies reveal a negative association termed twin divergence, which occur on instances where a country has high savings rate. Furthermore, it was established that the current account deficit towards predicting the debt crisis in Indonesia was of a low performance, and the leading macroeconomic indicators include short-term debt-foreign exchange reserves, the temporary debt-total external type, M2-foreign exchange reserves, inflation, IMF, and domestic credit-GDP. Therefore, the EWS model possesses 60% predictive abilities and an NTSR of 0.25, where the QPS value obtained was 0.373, and that of GSB was 0.005.

Review on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Mechanisms in Ethiopia

Climate change is the burning issue of the current world because it is considered to be one of the most serious threats to sustainable development, with adverse impacts expected on the environment, human health, food security, economic activity, natural resources and physical infrastructure. Climate change, biodiversity and forest loss are issues inextricably interlinked and need to be addressed simultaneously. Climate is the fundamental factor that determines different stages of the organism life-cycle, such as plant germination and flowering. Causes for vulnerability of Ethiopia to climate variability and change include very high dependence on rain fed agriculture which is very sensitive to climate variability and change, under-development of water resources, low health service coverage, high population growth rate, low economic development level, low adaptive capacity, inadequate road infrastructure in drought prone areas, weak institutions, lack of awareness, etc. The objective of this paper is to examine the social, economic and environmental impacts of climate change based on their degree of existence and trends the impacts, to identify the adaptation strategies and mitigation measures and to find out the challenges to the adoption of those coping mechanisms. The effects of the changing climate are imposing impacts upon the social, economic and environmental conditions of the human beings by affecting their livelihoods causing poor living, housing, and health conditions, by reducing the number at the same time of the production of livestock. Traditional and contemporary coping mechanisms to climate variability and extreme in Ethiopia include changes in cropping and planting practices, reduction of consumption levels, collection of wild foods, use of inter-household transfers and loans, increased petty commodity production, temporary and permanent migration in search of employment, grain storage, sale of assets such as livestock and agricultural tools, mortgaging of land, credit from merchants and money lenders, use of early warning system, food appeal/aid, etc. Keywords : climate change, coping mechanism, and impacts of climate change

Conflict Resolution Through Effective Communication

Freedom of expression has surfaced in large parts of the world, particularly the newly independent nations and the countries that remained in isolation, along with the spread of democracies in those countries. With the rise of free expression of views often contesting with one another, conflicts of different kinds that were under suppression earlier, also emerged. Conflict in itself is considered neither good nor bad but it is judged by its outcome. Study of conflict, specifically the causes behind it relating to power struggle, economic competition, is important for achieving peace. One of the important tools for resolving conflicts is effective communication. Despite the stupendous advancement of information and communication technologies (ICTs), existence of digital divide has presented serious constraints in the application of available technologies. Potential of ICTs in conflict resolution is being increasingly recognized as it assists in promoting peace, preventing conflict through the use of early warning system. While the mobile technology generated SMS is credited for success of 'Arab Spring', considered as a non-violent method for regime change, there are also problems associated with it in fueling conflicts. It is, thus, necessary for communication, particularly media, to become transparent, reliable and ethical. Use of English language in doing business today cannot be overemphasized. Sometimes it requires more than language to resolve conflicts arising out of national interest related issues of the countries concerned. Sustainable peace demands intervention of a non-violent nature with consideration given to social justice and human rights. Effective communication in not merely an act of entering into dialogue and relaying views and perceptions to conflicting parties but also securing their trust and confidence in order to arrive at a mutually agreeable agreement for securing peace.

DENGUE EARLY WARNING MODEL USING CLIMATE INFORMATION

The use of early warning system is potential adaptation options to reduce the impact of the climate variability and change. This study aims to develop a dengue early warning model using climate information. The model was developed through three steps of analysis. First step was to determine the length of periods used in prediction and optimal time for eradicating Aedes aegypti mosquito’s breeding sites. Second step was to identify the best prediction model of dengue incidence rate (IR). Third step was to develop an early warning model using stochastic spreadsheet.  It was found that the best predictors for predicting dengue incidence rate at week-n (IRn) were (1) rainfall index with two weeks lead time (ICHn-2). The rainfall index of week-nth is a function of three week moving averages rainfall (CH3), i.e. (CH3n-1.155*CH3n-1+0.702*CHn-2), and (2) IR with one week lead time (IRn-1). The IR model prediction was IRn = 0.795*IRn-1+0.067*ICHn-2 with R2=76.6%. These models (result model from first and third step) can be used to provide early warning on optimum time for controlling the mosquito’s breeding sites and the need for fogging action in order to avoid the dengue incidence rate beyond the critical limit defined by the Ministry of Health