US Sanctions Research Articles

Strategic cooperation of Iran at the regional level: enduring the US sanctions and reviving the oil and gas industry

Strategic cooperation of Iran at the regional level: enduring the US sanctions and reviving the oil and gas industry

К ИРАНО-ПАКИСТАНСКИМ ОТНОШЕНИЯМ

Current state of relations between Iran and Pakistan is shown in the article. Coming to power of president E. Raisi, a representative of conservative elite in the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2021 and election of Shahbaz Sharif as a prime minister in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in 2022 increases attention to the subject. The article focuses on political relationship between the two countries. Special attention is paid to the situation in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of American troops in 2021 and its influence on the politics of Islamabad and Tehran. The author analyses problems on the Iran-Pakistan border, that divides Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchistan and Pakistani province of Baluchistan, that have great influence on the relations between the two countries. The present study notes that in spite of the shortage of power resources in Pakistan, economic cooperation with Iran, that can be a natural supplier of energy to Pakistan, is developing at a too low rate. Negative influence of US sanctions against Iran on economic relations with Pakistan is convincingly shown in the article. Based on the arguments raised in the article, it is obvious that they are of considerable importance for assessing the current situation in Iran Pakistan relations and prospects of their development.

Do China and Russia Undermine US Sanctions? Evidence from DiD and Event Study Estimation

Do China and Russia Undermine US Sanctions? Evidence from DiD and Event Study Estimation

Do China and Russia Undermine US Sanctions? Evidence from DiD and Event Study Estimation

Do China and Russia Undermine US Sanctions? Evidence from DiD and Event Study Estimation

РОЛЬ СУВЕРЕННЫХ ОРГАНИЗАЦИЙ ИРАНА В УКРЕПЛЕНИИ ТОРГОВО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ ОТНОШЕНИЙ С РОССИЕЙ

One of the economic priorities of the governments of the Islamic Republic of Iran was the strong commercial relations with Russia at different periods of time. The accession of Iran to the Eurasian Economic Union will open new opportunities for Iran’s economy. However, Tehran should enhance its economic diplomacy with other countries, especially its neighbors. Russian Federation is a world power as well as the most important northern neighbor of Iran. Because Russia is one of the UN council’s five veto-wielding permanent members, Iranian authorities are seriously considering Moscow in the policy of orientation to the East within the framework of strategic unification. Earlier, this was seriously pushed by the US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal. In recent years, Iran’s economy has been eroded by The US sanctions, and it is still experiencing serious difficulties. Undoubtedly, the implementation of macroeconomic policy within the framework of strategic goals requires a clear consensus in the power structures of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This goal seems to be achieved with the election of Ibrahim Raisi as president of Iran. This article examines the role and capabilities of Iranian sovereign organizations and independent of the government with enormous economic potential and close to the core of power, which are important for the development of economic relations with Russia. The author believes that these organizations, having the appropriate characteristics and capabilities, can largely implement the long-term target programs of the Iranian state within the framework of a strategic association with the Russian Federation.

Features of the implementation of the mechanism for countering US sanctions in China and Russia

This article is devoted to the existing mechanisms of countering economic sanctions in Russia and China. The choice of these countries is not accidental. Currently, there is quite a small number of instruments of influence on states in the field of international relations. The most effective means are economic sanctions, which are applied against states pursuing policies that are not always convenient for other states. In the modern world, it is Russia and China that are the states against which economic sanctions are being applied quite actively. It is important to conduct a comparative study of the legal mechanisms of opposition to the applied economic sanctions.

The Impact of the US Sanctions on the Venezuelan Economy

The Impact of the US Sanctions on the Venezuelan Economy

Strategic cooperation of Iran at the regional level: enduring the US sanctions and reviving the oil and gas industry

Iran intends to alleviate the damage caused by the hostile relationship with the USA. As one way of the efforts, this research focuses on Iran's oil and gas cooperation with neighbouring countries, specifically those in the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central Asia. The analysis draws three conclusions depending on the theoretical framework of energy geopolitics. First, the efforts of Iran to overcome the situation have not been successful, combined with low oil prices by 2020. Second, Iran emphasises transportation as well as trade in its oil and gas cooperation with neighbouring countries. Finally, regional cooperation will bring substantial benefits to Iran in both economic and geopolitical aspects, working as a platform for increasing its undervalued influence at the global level.

ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ САНКЦИОННОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ В ОТНОШЕНИИ НЕФТЕГАЗОВОГО СЕКТОРА РОССИИ ДЛЯ ЭКОНОМИК США И СТРАН ЕС

The article is devoted to the sanctions policy of the USA and the countries of the European Union in relation to the Russian oil and gas sector. The restrictive measures taken by Western countries in order to change the gas and oil geopolitics in Europe are considered. It is emphasized that the formal renunciation of Russian oil does not mean the final cessation of purchases of Russian oil and oil products. American and European companies intend to continue buying Russian oil using workarounds. As a retaliatory measure of Russia, the Russian banking scheme of payment for export gas supplies to the EU countries is given. It has been proven that the ban on the import of hydrocarbons from Russia has a negative impact on the economic performance of the United States and EU countries. The inability of the US and EU countries to deprive Russia of markets for energy resources through sanctions was emphasized. The reorientation of Russian oil and gas supplies from the European to the Asian market is substantiated, where China and India act as the main buyers of Russian energy resources, acquiring Russian oil at low prices and receiving additional income from the sale of petroleum products produced from Russian oil and entering the markets of Europe and USA. It is concluded that the goal of the US sanctions policy is not only to weaken Russia, but also to weaken the EU economy, which will lead to an outflow of financial capital from Europe to the United States in the near future.

China's Digital Silk Road

The article is devoted to the analysis of the development of China's technologies as the main strategic component of the reform policy and the formation on this basis of a new model of the country's development. The state and structure of China's digital economy and the main directions of its development in the new era are considered. Using the example of the world leader in the field of advanced information and communication technologies, the global transnational company (TNC) Huawei, the state, dynamics and prospects for promoting Chinese technologies in the world in the format of building the Digital Silk Road (DSR) are shown. On the example of individual countries and regions, the state and features of the formation of regional blocks of the Digital Silk Road are considered. It is emphasized that in the context of the pandemic, the growing tightening of US sanctions and the actual blockade of the US market, the digital economy of China has become the core and basis for the formation of the DSR. The regional block of Southeast Asia, which is close to China, is dynamically developing in this direction. The countries of the Middle East and Latin America have a significant potential for cooperation. Despite the sanctions, certain opportunities and prospects remain in Europe. Africa is becoming an important strategic asset for construction of the DSR. Separately, the state of cooperation between China and Russia in the field of information and communication technologies in the context of Western sanctions, as well as the possibility of forming on this basis the Russian-Chinese Common digital community (CDC) with the prospect of its development into a single Eurasian digital space (EADC) are analyzed. Finally, it is concluded that China will continue to actively build a global DSR based on the promotion of Chinese technologies to world markets in the course of implementing the goals and objectives of the 14th Five-Year Plan.

Challenges of anti-Russia sanctions for metals and mining enterprises in Kazakhstan

Relevance: The new challenges for Kazakhstan's economy have emerged in the aftermath of current geopolitical tensions, especially after Kazakhstani businesses have found themselves under the threat of the US and EU secondary sanctions. The industries of the export-oriented metals and mining sector were hit the hardest. Kazakhstani enterprises in their attempts to navigate the sometimes contradictory trends in world trade responded in a variety of ambivalent ways. This situation clearly requires more research. While the lack of large data volumes makes qualitative diagnostics and scenario-based forecasting extremely difficult, the proposed approach may prove to be a viable solution. Research objective: This study aims to identify and describe the main models of behaviour demonstrated by Kazakhstani companies that seek to manage the risk of secondary sanctions and mitigate their export losses. Data and methods: To study the responses of Kazakhstani companies to the risk of secondary sanctions, the case study method was used, which provides us with a broader view on the companies of different sizes and territorial presence. The cases are then systematized to identify the key types of corporate responses to secondary sanctions. The study relies on the observations and data gathered from the documentations of Kazakhstani companies, media publications, reviews, the List of Items Prohibited for Export and Import in Russia and the Republic of Belarus Pursuant to Sanctions, and the normative legal acts of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Results: The study has brought to light the models of behaviour demonstrated by large enterprises and junior companies in Kazakhstan's metals and mining industry. Seeking to minimize the risk of secondary sanctions, Kazakhstani enterprises choose different behaviour models. A comprehensive in-depth content-analysis has revealed the basic trends in the development of Kazakhstan's metals and mining sector. Conclusions: The analysis of the resulting portfolio of cases has shown differences in the responses of large companies affiliated with TNCs and small and medium-sized juniors. The study also brought to light the sanctions' negative impact on the development of Kazakhstan's economy.

Modification or termination of contracts due to international economic sanctions from the standpoint of Russian legislation and court practice

In this article the author covers the problem of possible modification or termination of contracts due to international economic sanctions, in particular the US and EU sanctions against Russia. The author analyses relevant legislative acts, approaches of governmental authorities and court practice on this matter. This extensive analysis includes overview of development of main legal doctrines and institutions, related to the subject matter of this article. Moreover, it covers definitions of the relevant terms. This article is mainly aimed at defining a list of criteria to rely on when determining the possibility to modify or terminate a contract due to international economic sanctions in each particular case. The author raises the hypothesis that possibility to modify or terminate a contract due to international economic sanctions is subject to a closed list of criteria. The subject matter of this article is important since sanctions are now one of the main instruments of political influence in interstate relations and have a significant impact on all types of contractual relationships. Today, a major and common challenge faced by market participants is the inability to enforce contracts the way they were originally entered into. Due to the fact that in Russia it is rare for contracts to be amended or terminated due to newly imposed sanctions, parties do not always find themselves in a position to enforce a contract in a timely manner or to perform at all. As a result, the stability of the business environment is disrupted and the level of trust is reduced. Thus, it is highly important to perform a thorough analysis of this matter and provide possible solutions for market participants.

КОРПОРАТИВНОЕ УПРАВЛЕНИЕ В БАНКОВСКОМ СЕКТОРЕ РОССИИ В УСЛОВИЯХ НЕБЛАГОПРИЯТНЫХ ФАКТОРОВ ВНЕШНЕЙ СРЕДЫ

The article presents an assessment of the impact of adverse environmental factors on corporate governance in the Russian banking sector. The specifics of national banking corporate governance are revealed. It is concluded that it is necessary to use built-in adaptation mechanisms in the corporate governance system of the banking sector. The main threats from the external environment related to the impact of the package of US and EU sanctions on the financial system of the Russian Federation are identified. Possible ways of using corporate governance tools to smooth out negative influences and reduce the degree of risk in the banking sector are considered. A proactive approach and a focus on maintaining a balance of interests of all interested groups are proposed as the main vectors for the development of corporate governance in the banking sector.

Efficacy of the European Union and the United States' Sanctioning of Russia in Response to Breaches of Ukrainian Sovereignty

This research inquiry breaks down some of the intricacies of US and EU sanctions imposed on Russia following the breaches of Ukrainian sovereignty by the Kremlin in 2014. These sanctions are examined for their direct fiscal impacts and implicit efficacies as the result of specific policies. This paper seeks to identify nuanced characteristics of various sanctions and determine how sanction efficacy is tied to the classification under which the controlled product/good category is considred. This is just an initial record of observed patterns in sanctioning within a specific geopolitical realm. The paper was written in December 2021, and therefore prior to the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine that started on February 24, 2022.

PROSPECTS FOR THE COMMERCIAL OPERATION OF NORD STREAM 2

In early September 2021, the construction of the Northern stream – 2 рroject (NS-2) was completed. Its operator, Nord Stream 2 AG, has submitted documents for certification of the gas pipeline. The Federal Network Agency of Germany (BNetzA) is responsible for this process, which refused to grant the SP-2 operator an independent status. In November 2021, the German regulator agreed with him on the need to create a subsidiary in the Federal Republic of Germany. It must meet the requirements of German legislation and the Third Energy Package of the European Union. Contrary to the optimistic forecasts of experts and the expectations of Gazprom, the start of commercial operation of the project was postponed to 2022. BNetzA’s decision coincided with the adoption of the next US sanctions against the SP-2 participants and the creation of a new government coalition in Germany. Opponents of the project from the Union 90 / Greens party entered the new cabinet of ministers. The SP-2 is not mentioned in the coalition agreement that defines the future relations of Germany with the Russian Federation. The author, based on the analysis of original sources, examines the reasons for the delay in project certification; its role and place in the strategy of the new German cabinet of ministers; assesses the prospects for the start of commercial operation of the NS-2 in the context of continued opposition from Poland and Ukraine, as well as American sanctions mechanisms and confrontation in this matter from the US Congress and the President.

경제제재에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구

This paper is determined by the strategic choice of the actor and analyzed on theassumption that the strategic choice of the actor is restricted by structural conditions. In theprocess of denuclearization between North Korea and Iran, I could see that strategicinteraction between actors was a factor in determining the effect of denuclearization ofeconomic sanctions. At the same time, I emphasiz that the reason why North Korea and Iranwere able to withstand economic sanctions lies in the resilience power of structure . I thinkthat the resilience power of North Korea and Iran despite the strong US sanctions isultimately the role of China as a existence of supporting countries and the internal connectionforce between North Korea and Iran. In conclusion, to achieve the denuclearization of North Korea and Iran, the US needs toimprove relations with China. If the US-China resonance and coordination are strengthened,time will be saved in bringing China and Iran to denuclearization. In addition, the US and theinternational community should respect their shared belief that North Korea and Iran wereable to withstand economic sanctions, and increase their trust in each other based on theirhistorical background and understanding.

The Potential of the Zoomorphic Metaphor with the Target Domain “the Future of Russia” (on the Material of the Chinese Language)

The article presents the analysis of the zoomorphic metaphor with the target domain “The Future of Russia” in the context of the US sanctions policy against Russia in the Chinese non-institutional political Internet discourse. The chronological scope of the study covers the period from 2014 till the present. The Chinese website 悟空回答 (Wukong Q & A) was chosen as the source of the material. The analysis of metaphors is carried out within the framework of the methodology of linguistic political prognostics, using the methods of metaphorical modeling, linguistic, cultural, cognitive and discourse analysis. As a result of the analyzed 313 metaphorical contexts, it was found that one of the most frequent metaphorical models with the target domain “The Future of Russia” is a zoomorphic metaphor. The most frequent frame in this metaphorical model is the “Animal kingdom” frame, which contains three slots: “mammals”, “birds” and “fish”. The study showed that while representing the future of Russia in the Chinese non-institutional political Internet discourse in the context of anti-Russian sanctions, negatively colored metaphors which appear in the slots “mammals”, “birds” and “fish” prevail, depicting a “dark” future of Russian-American relations. Positively colored metaphors in the slot “mammals” are especially active in modeling the future of Russian-Chinese relations. The analysis of the metaphorical model showed that the activation of metaphors depends on the axiological attitudes of Chinese speakers and on changing political events.

E&P Notes (December 2021)

E&P Notes (December 2021)

China–Iran Strategic Partnership: Implications for India

China–Iran strategic deal signed on March 27, 2021 has initiated an interesting debate in the regional political discourse. Many area study experts view it as a game changer that has the potential to revamp the complexion of the regional politics. The US sanctions against Iran forced Tehran to move towards a historic deal with China to mitigate the US influence in the region. Ostensibly, global and regional politics are being divided into two blocks underpinned by the US and China. Iran under Chinese influence is jumping at the opportunity, not only capitalizing on the Chinese US$400 billion to reinvigorate its fragile economy but also availing itself of the window of international opening amid isolation. India, on the other hand, notwithstanding its strategic partnership with the US, does not want growing Chinese influence in Iran as well as in the region since it would damage its strategic interests, halting it from Chabahar Port, connectivity with Central Asia and oil import from Iran. China–Iran deal also has a good omen for Pakistan as both Iran and Pakistan clearly incline towards China for explicit reasons. China will leave no stone unturned to make the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) a success story, even connecting with Iran in the foreseeable future. With this backdrop, this paper attempts to assess the implications of the said deal for India and also shed lights on the emerging geopolitical and geoeconomic changes consequent to the deal.

Geopolitics of Chabahar Port for Iran, India and Afghanistan

In January 2016, Iran, India and Afghanistan signed a trilateral economic agreement on developing the Chabahar Port in south-eastern Iran. This project holds immense economic and geopolitical value for both Iran and India. Chabahar, as Iran’s first deep water port, connects it to oceanic trade routes. This helps Iran to mitigate US sanctions and sustain trade relations with neighbours and independent states such as India. For India, Chabahar is the key point of the ‘International North–South Transport Corridor’, an ambitious project connecting India to Central Asia and Europe. The article analyses the geostrategic, economic and trade-related importance of Chabahar port from both Iranian and Indian perspectives. This Iranian–Indian trade co-operation is considered a strategic alternative, if not a rival, to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), whose key point is the Gwadar port in Pakistan, next door to Chabahar.