US Presidential Election Research Articles

APSN: Adversarial Pseudo-Siamese Network for Fake News Stance Detection

Fake news is a longstanding issue that has existed on the social network, whose negative impact has been increasingly recognized since the US presidential election. During the election, numerous fake news about the candidates distributes vastly in the online social networks. Identifying inauthentic news quickly is an essential purpose for this research to enhance the trustworthiness of news in online social networks, which will be the task studied in this paper. The fake news stance detection can contribute to detect a startling amount of fake news, which aims at evaluating the relevance between the headline and text bodies. There exists a significant difference between news article headline and text body, since headlines with several key phrases are usually much shorter than the text bodies. Such an information imbalance challenge may cause serious problems for the stance detection task. Furthermore, news article data in online social networks is usually exposed to various types of noise and can be contaminated, which poses more challenges for the stance detection task. In this paper, we propose a novel fake news stance detection model, namely Adversarial Pseudo-Siamese Network model (APSN), to solve these challenges. With coupled input components with imbalanced parameters, APSN can learn and compute feature vectors and similarity score of news article headlines and text bodies simultaneously. In addition, by adopting adversarial setting, besides the regular training set, a set of noisy training instances will be generated and fed to APSN in the learning process, which can significantly enhance the robustness of the model. Extensive experiments have been conducted on a real-world fake news dataset, and the experimental results reveal that the presented model exceeds compared suspicious information detection models with significant advantages.

Multi-index Evaluation and Analysis of the Impact of US Presidential Election on Economy Based on SPSS

The result of the US election in 2020 will affect the economic trend of the United States and China. Economy is an important indicator of people's living standards, and policies and principles guide economic development. Based on the relevant data, this paper quantitatively analyzes the possible impact of the two candidates on the American economy and the Chinese economy. Factor analysis and the global econometric model of the National Academy of Sciences are used to determine economic trends.

The impact of political ideology, knowledge and participation on electoral conspiracy endorsement

From voting fraud to Russian interference, electoral conspiracy theories have circulated on social media since the 2016 United States presidential election with alarming magnitude. Previous conspiracy studies have primarily focused on psychological causes that contribute to the conspiracy mentality, and the discussion on political antecedents of conspiracy endorsement remains lacking. This study selects popular conspiracies reflecting various political ideologies and conducts multiple survey rounds (n = 500) to compare and contrast the effect of partisan affiliations on conspiracy endorsement. Drawing from the extant literature from psychology, communication, and political science and using two-way and three-way interaction models, this study examines three political antecedents—political ideology, knowledge, and participation—and their interactive effects on conspiracy endorsement. The results indicate that individuals with higher levels of political affiliation and knowledge illustrate stronger conspiracy endorsement, and this effect is stronger for conservatives than liberals. Additionally, increased political participation reduces the endorsement of conservative conspiracies and heightens the endorsement of liberal ones among both conservatives and liberals.

There is no capitalist conspiracy and the rich are not all‐powerful

There is no capitalist conspiracy and the rich are not all‐powerful

The Trump vote and Covid-19 vaccination across US states, US counties, and Connecticut towns

ABSTRACT In the United States over the past 40 years national issues and allegiances have increasingly displaced state and local concerns and identities in shaping the preferences of voters and the internal processes of political parties. This study finds that such nationalization has also manifested itself in health-related behaviour, specifically in the takeup of Covid-19 vaccines. Despite the heterogeneities of US states, counties, and towns, the share of the vote that Trump received in the 2020 US presidential election is found at each level to be a strong and robust predictor of a lower June 2022 Covid-19 vaccination initiation rate, even after adjusting for sociodemographic composition, spatial effects, and diverse provisioning- and takeup-related factors. At each of the three subnational levels, the Trump 2020 vote share was also correlated more closely than the Trump 2016 vote share or the Romney 2012 vote share with the June 2022 Covid-19 vaccination initiation rate.

Do foreign exchange administration rules strengthen the currency value? Policy lessons from an emerging market

After the announcement of the US presidential election result on 8 November 2016, many ASEAN currencies became volatile relative to the US Dollar (USD). Despite being an emerging market, Malaysia took an unprecedented step. It implemented new rules in December 2016 to halt the decline of the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR). Under the new rules, exporters must convert 75 per cent of export proceeds from foreign currency to local currency with a licensed financial institution. Using the sample period from September 2015 to July 2018, this study examined the impact of the Supplementary Notice on Foreign Exchange Administration (FEA) rules on MYR. Our study revealed, first, that despite the initial uneasiness of Multinational Companies (MNCs), the FEA rules effectively strengthened the MYR against the USD and other major currencies; second, the rule mitigated the depreciation of FDI and crude oil price on MYR; third, the results were robust in terms of model specification and estimation. The policy suggestion is made that the export conversion rule should be applied to foreign firms in Malaysia and domestic oil exporters, as it would mitigate the depreciation impact of the increase in FDI and crude oil price. Malaysia's experience provides policy lessons for emerging economies to emulate when facing unexpected exchange rate volatility.

Sentiment, we-talk and engagement on social media: insights from Twitter data mining on the US presidential elections 2020

PurposeGiven inconsistent results in prior studies, this paper applies the dual process theory to investigate what social media messages yield audience engagement during a political event. It tests how affective cues (emotional valence, intensity and collective self-representation) and cognitive cues (insight, causation, certainty and discrepancy) contribute to public engagement.Design/methodology/approachThe authors created a dataset of more than three million tweets during the 2020 United States (US) presidential elections. Affective and cognitive cues were assessed via sentiment analysis. The hypotheses were tested in negative binomial regressions. The authors also scrutinized a subsample of far-famed Twitter users. The final dataset, scraping code, preprocessing and analysis are available in an open repository.FindingsThe authors found the prominence of both affective and cognitive cues. For the overall sample, negativity bias was registered, and the tweet’s emotionality was negatively related to engagement. In contrast, in the sub-sample of tweets from famous users, emotionally charged content produced higher engagement. The role of sentiment decreases when the number of followers grows and ultimately becomes insignificant for Twitter participants with many followers. Collective self-representation (“we-talk”) is consistently associated with more likes, comments and retweets in the overall sample and subsamples.Originality/valueThe authors expand the dominating one-sided perspective to social media message processing focused on the peripheral route and hence affective cues. Leaning on the dual process theory, the authors shed light on the effectiveness of both affective (peripheral route) and cognitive (central route) cues on information appeal and dissemination on Twitter during a political event. The popularity of the tweet’s author moderates these relationships.

"What did they say?" Network analysis of Twitter quotes @JoeBiden and @realDonaldTrump during 2020 United States presidential election (second debate)

"What did they say?" Network analysis of Twitter quotes @JoeBiden and @realDonaldTrump during 2020 United States presidential election (second debate)

"What did they say?" Network analysis of Twitter quotes @JoeBiden and @realDonaldTrump during 2020 United States presidential election (second debate)

"What did they say?" Network analysis of Twitter quotes @JoeBiden and @realDonaldTrump during 2020 United States presidential election (second debate)

"What did they say?" Network analysis of Twitter quotes @JoeBiden and @realDonaldTrump during 2020 United States presidential election (second debate)

"What did they say?" Network analysis of Twitter quotes @JoeBiden and @realDonaldTrump during 2020 United States presidential election (second debate)

"What did they say?" Network analysis of Twitter quotes @JoeBiden and @realDonaldTrump during 2020 United States presidential election (second debate)

"What did they say?" Network analysis of Twitter quotes @JoeBiden and @realDonaldTrump during 2020 United States presidential election (second debate)

"What did they say?" Network analysis of Twitter quotes @JoeBiden and @realDonaldTrump during 2020 United States presidential election (second debate)

"What did they say?" Network analysis of Twitter quotes @JoeBiden and @realDonaldTrump during 2020 United States presidential election (second debate)

"What did they say?" Network analysis of Twitter quotes @JoeBiden and @realDonaldTrump during 2020 United States presidential election (second debate)

"What did they say?" Network analysis of Twitter quotes @JoeBiden and @realDonaldTrump during 2020 United States presidential election (second debate)

"What did they say?" Network analysis of Twitter quotes @JoeBiden and @realDonaldTrump during 2020 United States presidential election (second debate)

"What did they say?" Network analysis of Twitter quotes @JoeBiden and @realDonaldTrump during 2020 United States presidential election (second debate)

A 2 million-person, campaign-wide field experiment shows how digital advertising affects voter turnout.

We present the results of a large, US$8.9 million campaign-wide field experiment, conducted among 2 million moderate- and low-information persuadable voters in five battleground states during the 2020 US presidential election. Treatment group participants were exposed to an 8-month-long advertising programme delivered via social media, designed to persuade people to vote against Donald Trump and for Joe Biden. We found no evidence that the programme increased or decreased turnout on average. We found evidence of differential turnout effects by modelled level of Trump support: the campaign increased voting among Biden leaners by 0.4 percentage points (s.e. = 0.2 pp) and decreased voting among Trump leaners by 0.3 percentage points (s.e. = 0.3 pp) for a difference in conditional average treatment effects of 0.7 points (t1,035,571 = -2.09; P = 0.036; [Formula: see text] points; 95% confidence interval = -0.014 to 0). An important but exploratory finding is that the strongest differential effects appear in early voting data, which may inform future work on early campaigning in a post-COVID electoral environment. Our results indicate that differential mobilization effects of even large digital advertising campaigns in presidential elections are likely to be modest.

Explicating the public memory dialectic in public relations: The case of Donald Trump, The Oath Keepers, and January 6, 2021

The public relations practice participates in making, shaping, telling, and interpreting societal memory to influence issue positions and related actions. That claim implies several themes. One, societal memory is a useful concept for understanding the strategic processes of meaning and meaning making, narratives which constitute society. Two, the content of their prevailing memories shapes the choices individuals make separately and collectively. Public relations’ centrality to societal memory remains an underappreciated and underexplored research area. Scholars have explored the role public relations plays in societal memory by examining, for instance, the textuality of art as well as memorials and statues, their erection and erasure. To better understand this process, scholarship needs to examine strategic public relations efforts to “blur” societal memory as a means of creating alternative versions (revisionist history) of lived truth, values, norms, and policies. After examining memory, including blurring, we use the January 6, 2021 United States presidential election (Congressional Certification) Capitol “protest event” to demonstrate how blurring occurs and its potential adverse implications. We suggest and conceptualize in a model that societal memory occurs as a dialectic; some etched version of history (i.e., thesis) comes under question (i.e., antithesis), and through either a process of blurring, erasure, or retention, that etched history is then muddied, expunged, or lives on (i.e., synthesis). Meaning matters in the enactment and critical assessment of public relations’ role in societal agency.

ЕПОХА ПОСТПРАВДИ У СУЧАСНОМУ СВІТІ: ВИТОКИ ТА ПРИЧИНИ

The article is devoted to the era of post-truth as a phenomenon of socio-political discourse and practice, when the truth or falsity of facts and judgments is ignored. The beginning of the post-truth era is usually associated with 2016, namely the referendum and the Brexit procedure, and the US presidential election (due directly to the figure of D. Trump). The post-truth era refers to a situation where politics is completely built on lies that do not arouse public condemnation. The manifestation of these signs among democratic countries is a feature. The use of the policy of “alternative facts” is part of the state policy of such authoritarian countries as China, Russia, Belarus, etc., but its manifestation in a democratic society is atypical. The philosophical origins of the post-truth era lie in the theory of subjective relativism, which denies the existence of absolute, objective truth and emphasizes that the status of truth depends on individual judgments, experiences, and cultural conditions. In the context of relativism, science is only one point of view on the world, which has the same force and influence of arguments as religion, myths, judgments and personal experience of the average person. The concept of equality of opinions and points of view is intertwined with the problem of the limits of freedom of speech: should society really broadcast different opinions regardless of evidence. Limited or unlimited freedom of speech is the problem? Characteristic features of post-truth are: a) ignoring objective facts in reporting; b) appealing to the values and beliefs of the individual; c) using emotional pressure to argue one’s position. The post-truth era is actually characterized by the construction of an alternative reality, which is associated with a number of phenomena: fake news, accent framing, clickbait, information hype, opinion journalism, etc. It is justified that the emergence and development of the post-truth era is determined by technological, political, philosophical and informational factors. In this article it was reviewed how the post-truth era affects the political, educational, scientific and other spheres, which significantly reduces their effectiveness. The highlighted sentence is not a clear or complete sentence. Disinformation as part of the post-truth is a significant challenge for ordinary citizens.

Following Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump: A Dissection of their Tweets in the 2016 US Presidential Election

Following Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump: A Dissection of their Tweets in the 2016 US Presidential Election

Die Stärke der Europäischen Union nach der „Zeitenwende“

This article analyses the strength and resilience of the European Union (EU) after the “Zeitenwende”. The completely new situation of threat emanating from Russia did not lead to the EU falling apart, as might have been expected. To the contrary, it resulted in a community reflex of member states moving closer together and supporting Ukraine actively in its fight for survival, despite a certain leadership weakness of the Franco-German couple. In addition, the EU is reacting in a way with extensive military aid and joint procurement of ammunition that was unthinkable two or three years ago. However, the EU and its member states are lacking a strategy on how to contribute to terminating the war. Such a strategy would be urgently needed in order not to become unravelled between a bellicose Russia and a potentially less Atlantic-minded America after the US presidential election at the end of 2024.

Strano mešanje u izbore kao hibridna pretnja nacionalnoj bezbednosti - predsednički izbori u SAD 2016. i 2020. godine

The second decade of the twenty-first century was marked by an expansion of interest in hybrid threats to national security. Foreign election interference became actual during the 2016 US presidential elections. As one of the modalities of subversive activities, foreign election interference faced a practical transformation along with the development of new technologies and the expansion of the social networks' influence. The hybrid character of foreign election interference is shown both in the fact that it can be realized in physical cyberspace by state or non-state actors. This hybrid threat is limited only by the imagination of its creators and the ability of its implementers. 2016 and 2020 United States presidential elections have shown that countries with the most complex security systems are not able to predict where the hybrid threat will realize. The author concludes that foreign election interference will remain actual in contemporary international relations, because of avoiding direct armed confrontation in gaining dominance in the interest zones of great and regional powers.