US Decision Research Articles

War Between Ukraine and Russia & Its Impact on the United States

The current Russia-Ukraine war is defining the world in politics, economics and security, especially for the United States. This study delves into the contribution and reaction of the US to the ongoing dispute from the view of Social Contract and Interest Group theories, which serve to pace the understanding of US led political, economic and military support to Ukraine. It also focuses on the interplay between state obligations, interest group influence and strategic calculations that motivate the policy decision making by the United States. Through such a convoluted journey into some of the prominent contending forces, such as the US government, interest groups, and Ukraine, this article goes on to say how, at the present extreme strain of geopolitics, all these machinery work on US decisions in holding its role as a world power. The analysis shows that the United States is involved in multilayered commands throughout moral, economic and strategic types and thus far-reaching impact on foreign relations.

Oil and the US Decision to Overthrow Mosaddeq

On August 19, 1953, Prime Minister Mohammed Mosaddeq was removed from office by a coalition of Iranians, including Mohammed Reza Shah Pahlavi (r. 1941–79) and members of the armed forces, supported by the United States and Great Britain. The US provided considerable financial, logistical, and organizational support to the coup, which was code-named Operation TPAJAX by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Although the British had been committed, in one form or another, to removing Mosaddeq since he first became prime minister and nationalized Iran's British-owned oil industry in May 1951, the US did not determine to overthrow Mosaddeq by coup d'etat until spring 1953, shortly after the administration of President Dwight D. Eisenhower came to office.

Preoperative Concerns of Older US Adults and Decisions About Elective Surgery

This cross-sectional study examines the preoperative concerns among US adults aged 50 to 80 years who considered elective surgery.

The art of the Trump‐Iran deal: An unsuccessful coercive foreign policy

AbstractThe success of a state's coercive foreign policy depends on how much influence it has over a ‘target’ – a premise that assumes other factors do not obstruct the policy goal. In practice however, the nature of the international system complicates the potential for such a policy's success. This paper examines this idea using the 2018 US decision that aimed to dismantle the JCPOA by pulling out of the agreement and re‐sanctioning Iran. To do so, this paper engages with the general and region‐specific literature on coercive foreign policy, sets out a background of US‐Iranian ties and examines the consensus‐driven momentum that led to the JCPOA, along with the unilateral 2018 US decision to renege on the agreement. The findings demonstrate how the US and Iranian political environments made it difficult to realise the coercive foreign policy goal of dismantling the JCPOA. The reasons for this centre on the notion that the interconnected nature of the international system diminishes the effectiveness of this type of coercive foreign policy – even when considering the USA as a powerful implementer of this policy. Thus, I argue for the importance of capturing contextual factors when considering this type of international relations.

Two-Level Game Analysis on US Decision to Withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

Abstract
 This study analyzes the reasons behind the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017. Using descriptive methods and Two-level Game theory as an analytical tool supported by secondary data, we found some domestic factors driving this policy. First, different preferences existed between the government as the “chief negotiator” and interest groups and public opinion representing domestic interests. Two-level game theory explains that international agreement can only be ratified if the win-set negotiations are in overlapping conditions or where international and domestic preferences find a meeting point. However, no common ground between international and domestic preferences resulted in a deadlock. Second, the U.S. public strongly resisted the agreement. Public opinion and hearings are factors that, to some extent, can become obstacles for national governments in international negotiations. Ratification is not only carried out through a formal process (legislative approval) but also through an informal process (public opinion and approval). In addition, the election of Donald Trump, who carried protectionist values with his “America First” slogan, strengthened the position of the opposing groups and those who embraced protectionist values. Therefore, the election of Trump as the president marked the end of the TPP debate because both the executive as the “chief negotiator” and the dominant domestic group rejected the ratification.
 Keywords: Trans-Pacific Partnership, Two-Level Game Theory, United States

The Illogical Logics of America’s Wars in the Middle East: Vietnam and Iraq

Introduction: Describing the US wars in Vietnam and Iraq, many critics assert the similarity between US decision making in both wars. The critics of U.S. administration often link between Iraq and Vietnam, charging George W. Bush and his policy makers that they had rejected the lessons of Vietnam War 1965–73 and involved the country in a similar kind of conflict. Purpose: This study aims to draw parallels between Iraq and Vietnam wars which mainly center on the role of misinformation and deception in the run-up to the two wars, the political and military problems that the United States confronted in each case, and the ebbing of public support in the face of two similarly draining conflicts. Study questions: The study raises many substantive questions concerning the two wars: How did America become involved in Vietnam? How did it launch war in Iraq? What were the main motivations in both wars? What were their main aims? Did the decision makers in George W. Bush’s administration learn the lessons of Vietnam or they repeated the same mistakes? Methodology/Approach: The study depends on the analytical and comparative approaches to analyze thoroughly how USA became involved in Vietnam and Iraq, its motivations, and its aims, trying to find satisfying answers to the questions it raised.

The politics of human rights trade sanctions: evidence from the African Growth and Opportunity Act

Scholars contend that embedding human rights conditionality in trade agreements can improve human rights. We argue that human rights interests may collide with trade, investment, and security interests. We examine these claims in the context of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a unilateral trade preference program with robust human rights conditions, created in 2000 by the United States for up to 49 potentially eligible sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) states. US decisions to terminate AGOA beneficiary status are determined strongly by US trade, investment, and security interests. The country’s human rights record, including state-sponsored killings and other violations of physical integrity rights, has a less consistent and weaker effect.

The growing of Chinese influence in Iraq under U.S. invasion (2003-2013)

The invasion of Iraq in 2003 by the United States and its allies, is one of the most important events of the early 21st century, that has had a major impact on Iraq, the Middle East and the relations among the great powers. Although the United States succeeded in occupying and destroying Saddam's regime, but this victory did not strengthen the US position in Iraq, rather until the withdrawal of US troops in 2011, Iraqis, despite political and military problems, strongly resisted the occupation. While the war cost the United States more than 3 trillion USD, it did not benefit economically and commercially from Iraq. On the contrary, China was one of the countries that initially opposed the war, both during and after the war, and did not join the US led coalition to invade Iraq, also considered the unilateral US decision to invade Iraq as a clear violation of international values and law. In addition, learned lessons from the occupation to renew his military and intelligence capabilities. On the other hand, it has formulated its political strategy on the basis of the new postwar gifts. On the other hand, it has increased its economic and commercial influence in Iraq, to the extent that scholars believe China is the biggest winner of the war.

PERANG AFGANISTAN ANTARA AMERIKA SERIKAT DAN TALIBAN TAHUN 2021: ANALISIS TRINITAS PERANG CLAUSEWITZ

This article analyzes the Afghanistan war between the United States and the Taliban in 2021 through the Clausewitz war trinity in terms of the success or failure of the war. Analysis used a qualitative-explanative approach and literature study methods in collecting data, and using the Trinity of War theory as an analytical tool. The results of the study show that the trinity of war aspect, which consists of the people, the military and the government, has a major influence on the outcome of the US war in Afghanistan. The US decision to withdraw all its troops and allies in the Afghanistan war is considered a form of failure in this war. Nevertheless, this article does not deny that these conditions do not describe the failure to achieve the US political goals themselves, namely the assassination of the leader of the international terrorist organization (al-Qaida) Osama bin Laden as the main objective of the war

Moderating Globalization: Is There a Role for Antitrust Law? A Comparison of the Relevance of Entry, Expansion and Imports in US and EU Merger Proceedings

This paper attempts to locate the issue of innovation and foreign entry, in particular new entrants from China, in recent US and EU merger decisions. In the first part, the paper examines to what extend US and EU authorities considered foreign entry in recent major merger decisions such as Bayer/Monsanto, Dow/DuPont and ChemChina/Syngenta. The outcome of this short analysis shows that the EU Commission has in recent years begun to accept the argument of foreign entry, in particular from China, as long as the market shares of the merging parties are not too high. The US has not explicitly discussed the question of foreign entry in the above-named decisions. However, in the case Whirlpool/Maytag the US authorities accepted, despite high market shares of the parties, the argument of foreign entry and approved the merger. With regards to innovation, entry into future product markets is not considered favourable to the merging parties by the EU Commission. ‘Innovation competition’ or early ‘pipeline products’ is rather used as an argument to demonstrate that the merging parties hold market power in product markets in the future. Based on the selected case law, the US authorities, by contrast, did recognize entry into future product markets as an argument in favour of the merging parties. In its second part, the paper looks at the pros and cons of forming ‘national champions’ and discusses competition law enforcement in light of the numerous and politically powerful Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Global competition/antitrust law and policy, foreign entry in merger decisions and China, innovation competition, entry criteria in US/EU mergers, climate change

European Defence Planning: Concorde, Franco-British Politico-Military Relations and the Cold War, 1956–68

Cold War tensions between the superpowers marked the years 1956 to 1966, where the United States, Britain and France prioritised European defence against Soviet aggression. Despite being envisaged for civil aviation purposes, the Concorde aircraft was the Franco-British alternative to US proposals concerning the introduction of a supersonic bomber within the Inter-Allied Nuclear Force (IANF) to protect against Soviet attack during the Cold War technological race. This offers a unique case study for the examination of Franco-British bi-lateral partnership in the context of European defence. This article will concentrate on three main themes. The first investigates how Concorde was considered as a viable component for the IANF. Subsequently, the loci of US, British and French policy decisions will be explored with regards to constructing supersonic aircrafts. Lastly, the article considers how foreign policies influenced the shift from a military-use Concorde to a more commercial option. The historiography on Concorde focuses on its commercial impact, and how it affected the Franco-British partnership. Considering Concorde from the defence perspective allows us to analyse the divisions between the US and French grand design ideas – the IANF and Europe puissance – and how they provoked further friction in the Franco-British military relationship.

The Rise and Fall of the Iraqi Sunni Awakening Movement

The article studies the rise of the Sunni Awakening (or Sahwa) movement as an example of how different groups can be mobilized for collective action and disintegrated by internal and external factors. It also examines the motives of the Sunni tribal leaders to oppose the AQI and the factors that had a decisive influence on the disintegration of the Awakening movement. The emergence of the Iraqi Sunni Awakening was associated not so much with a sense of ideological, patriotic, or religious obligation but with the loss of economic power of the tribal leaders who decided to mobilize against the AQI.Since 2006, the Sunni Awakening has been a key component of the US strategy to combat jihadi groups. The growth of the movement's activity led to a weakening of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) and a significant decrease in the intensity of interfaith conflict in the country. After the official transfer of control of the Awakening to the Iraqi government, the relationship of the Sunni tribes with official Baghdad deteriorated, as Prime Minister Al-Maliki pursued a systematic policy of marginalizing and eliminating the Awakening. The disintegration of the Awakening was strongly influenced by two US decisions that were of strategic importance to Iraq: (a) support for al-Maliki following his defeat in the 2010 parliamentary elections, won by the secular Sunni-Shiite coalition; (b) poor timing of the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, as by the end of 2011, the Iraqi security forces were still not ready to ensure the country's security. As a result, in 2012, numerous supporters of the Sahwa began to participate in anti-government revolts, and thousands of fighters from the movement joined ISIL.

Theoretical Analysis of the U.S. Foreign Policy Towards Kurds in Syria After 2011

The United States' new foreign policy, which includes abandoning America's Kurdish friends and a new strategy on how the US should execute military interventions, as well as the "America First" ethos, has triggered a humanitarian and military catastrophe for Syrian Kurds. Despite the prevalence of study on American strategy in Syria and towards Syrian Kurds, there is a noticeable lack of comprehensive research explaining and evaluating the growing connections. This paper argues that deciphering these patterns necessitates a deep understanding of regional politics and a thorough engagement with the vast IR research. In this context, it is essential to look at the nature, limitations, and constraints of the Kurdish-US relationship, which is the Kurds' most powerful ally. For the present study, a theoretical framework is chosen to analyse US foreign policy comprehensively. This is a qualitative research report based on a case study. The case for this paper is the United States' foreign policy toward Syrian Kurds, as seen through several international theories, particularly realism and liberalism. The suggested study aims to explain why the US overlooked Syrian Kurds at the start of the Syrian crisis, why the US worked with and backed Syrian Kurds or SDF till 2019, and why the US abandoned or deserted the Syrian Kurds after a foreign policy shift. To sum up, scholarly reports show mixed results, with some claiming that the US decision to abandon Syrian Kurds was well-informed. In contrast, others suggest that if the decision is made without caution, it will do more harm than good to America's long-term ally, who played a critical role in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.

American and Australian Tariff Policies: Do They Rock or Tango or Roll?

How can two countries’ trade policies be related to each other? A first possibility is that they are not related at all and that each country’s tariffs are defined under national considerations (the “rock” hypothesis). A second is that each country adapts its tariffs in reaction to what the other does (the “tango” hypothesis). A third is that both countries react to events happening in the rest of the world (the “roll” possibility). This paper examines the determinants of Australia’s and the US’ average tariff levels. Relying on historical data that cover a century (1904 to 2005), the three hypotheses are examined. The results indicate a strong long-run relation between the US and the Australian tariffs. Interrelations are also exhibited, with the US decisions influencing more strongly the Australian tariffs than the opposite. The results are important to assess the sustainability and stability of the regional trade agreements in the Pacific area.

Redefining Pakistan-US Relations in Post-Afghanistan Withdrawal Phase

Pak-US relationship has mostly been marred due to broken promises, disastrous misunderstandings, lack of trust, and exaggerated expectations from each other's policies. Pak-US engagement has always been absorbedly framed either to achieve short-term security-related goals or around the compulsions to meet common challenges, especially the US needs & interest in the broader regional environment. Concerning the geo-strategic environment, the relevance that the US accorded to Pakistan has always been restricted to Afghanistan, whether it was during the cold war, the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan, or the post 9/ 11 US war on terror. The future of Pak-US relations in the post-US withdrawal from Afghanistan is full of uncertainty and the nature of US interest towards Pakistan has changed. The paper analyzes the historical transactional patterns of the relationship and compulsive factors, circumstances behind the US decision to alienate, abandon and impose economic and military sanctions on Pakistan, post-withdrawal complexities.

Long-duration energy storage in a decarbonized future: Policy gaps, needs, and opportunities

The future U.S. electric grid is being transformed with deep decarbonization of generation (i.e., removing or reducing reliance on fossil fuels and replacing them with renewable and clean energy resources), which in practice is not achievable without a dramatic increase in the reliance on long-duration energy storage (LDES) technologies. Regulators at both the state and federal level are well advised to take steps to address current policy gaps, build frameworks that will enable a greater role for LDES to contribute to grid reliability and be fairly compensated for its grid services..Decarbonization by definition is dependent on an increasing reliance on variable renewable energy, primarily wind and solar resources, that needs to be stored for longer durations to maintain electric grid reliability and provide operational flexibility to grid operators. However, despite the growing realization of the need for long-duration energy storage (LDES) technologies, a persistent gap of policy levers at the federal and state level creates a vacuum in terms of defining how and where LDES technologies can be utilized to support the electric grid, along with an inadequate regulatory framework wherein these resources will need to be valued and compensated for the services they can provide. This paper—which is primarily intended for US decision makers, but should be of value for all energy professionals and the general public—addresses policy gaps, needs, and opportunities for LDES that require urgent attention from US-based policymakers at the federal and state level. This paper also provides background information on how the US E&U industry is structured and regulated, along with perspectives on LDES technologies and applications, all of which have direct relevance to the paper’s primary focus on the need for LDES policymaking.DiscussionDespite a generally accepted future need for long-duration energy storage (LDES) technologies that is directly tied to the rapid of renewable resources on the U.S. electric grid, there is a lack of policymaking, market designs, and compensation mechanisms for LDES technologies. Decarbonization (i.e., the goal of removing or reducing reliance on fossil fuels) cannot be achieved at the aggressive levels envisioned without utilizing LDES. Policymakers must take steps now to build frameworks that recognize the unique ways in which LDES will increasingly contribute to grid reliability and resilience, and receive appropriate compensation for the services it provides.Graphical abstract

India and US FONOPs: Oceans Apart

India and the United States have recently and rapidly consolidated a significant bilateral defence partnership, have a clear appetite for bilateral and quadrilateral maritime cooperation, and appear to share a common commitment to the rules and norms that govern the maritime domain. Yet the US decision to undertake and publicise a freedom-of-navigation operation targeting India in April 2021 again highlighted the two countries’ divergent interpretations of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and of customary international law. This divergence has its origins in differences in Washington’s and New Delhi’s historical engagement with UNCLOS and their preferred means of achieving security and status in the Indo-Pacific. Such differences currently preclude a deep bilateral consensus on maritime order and a common multilateral position within the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.

Роль США в трансформации архитектуры европейской безопасности

The role of the United States of America in the transformation of the European security architecture after the end of the “Cold War” is examined. A comparative assessment is provided of the approach of the two American administrations to the role of the United States in building the key elements of the European security architecture in the context of a paradigm shift in world development and the transformation of the system of international relations established by treaties and agreements of the Yalta and Potsdam conferences. The analysis allows us to conclude that, remaining the only superpower, the United States considered the architecture of European security as the basis for building a global Eurasian security system. The US decision to transform the European security architecture based on NATO was a successful solution to the “German question” for Washington.

Enjoy Your New Region! The US Strategy of Shifting Turkey’s Caucus in the UN Security Council in 1953

ABSTRACT Where does Turkey geographically belong, the Middle East or Eastern Europe? This was a looming puzzle for the architects of the Cold War to solve in the early 1950s. This was so because Turkey’s region would dramatically affect the composition of members in the UN Security Council. Although Turkey was elected to the Council from the Middle East region in 1950, it moved its region to Eastern Europe in 1953 to compete with Poland for the Council seat. However, the determination of where Turkey belonged was not an easy task and demanded very delicate calculations and political strategies. We argue that it was the Cold War strategies of the US that arbitrated where Turkey geographically belonged, exemplifying that regions are formed through discourse and are constantly mediated and renegotiated. This situation has created both opportunities and limitations for the Turkish policy-makers who joined the debate ex post-facto, spoke either to legitimise the US decision or to displace counter arguments.

Brakeman or booster? Presidents, ideological polarization, reciprocity, and the politics of US arms control

US arms control policies have shifted frequently in the last 60 years, ranging from the role of a ‘brakeman’ regarding international arms control, to the role of a ‘booster,’ initiating new agreements. My article analyzes the conditions that contribute to this mixed pattern. A crisp-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) evaluates 24 cases of US decisions on international arms control treaties (1963–2021). The analysis reveals that the strength of conservative treaty skeptics in the Senate, in conjunction with other factors, has contributed to the demise of arms control policies since the end of the Cold War. A brief study of the Trump administration’s arms control policies provides case-sensitive insights to corroborate the conditions identified by the QCA. The findings suggest that conservative treaty skeptics contested the bipartisan consensus and thus impaired the ability of the USA to perform its leadership role within the international arms control regime.