Background: Hypertension is a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and its prevalence among the Sub-Saharan African population has risen extremely in the last decades. Moreover, there is growing evidence that suggest that hypertension has its roots in childhood and adolescence and persist into adulthood. However, the epidemiology of hypertension in the young in a Low to Middle Income Country (LMIC) setting is not fully understood due to paucity of longitudinal data. Thus, we sought to investigate prevalence and new cases of hypertension and to identify risk factors that predict the incidence of hypertension from early childhood in urban black South-African children. Methods: We used data from the Birth to Twenty (BT20+) cohort in Johannesburg, South Africa. This cohort comprised of children born in 1990 and who had their growth, development and blood pressure measured at six follow-up periods over the course of 13 years. Hypertension status was classified using the fourth report of the National High Blood Pressure Education Program. Hypertension incidence rate was calculated using staggered entry survival analysis. We identified risk factors for incident hypertension using multivariable cox proportional hazard regressions. Results: Over a follow-up period of 13 years, the overall point prevalence of hypertension ranged from 8.4 to 24.4 % and cumulative incidence of hypertension was 54.3% (95% CI: 51.8 to 56.8). The overall hypertension incidence rate was 57.0 cases per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 53.2 to 61.1). Furthermore, the risk for incident hypertension increased with a rapid relative weight gain in early childhood (aHR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.22), in mid childhood (aHR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.24) and in adolescence (aHR = 1.21, 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.47). An increase in maternal parity significantly increased the risk for incident hypertension (aHR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.15). Conclusion: Rapid weight gain relative to height and higher parity are prominent risk factors for incident hypertension in urban black South African children and adolescents. In order to reduce the high incidence and the disease burden of hypertension, national health programs should focus on promoting healthy lifestyle in early stages of life to curb rapid weight gain. Further research is required to check whether incident hypertension in childhood predict clinical outcomes in adulthood.
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