Urban Shrinkage Research Articles

Study on multidimensional shrinkage spatial-temporal patterns and driving forces of cities in the Yellow River Basin

With economic globalization and the deepening process of industrialization and urbanization, China’s urban development has entered a vital transition stage. As one of the most influential rivers in China, the Yellow River Basin (YRB), with ecological protection and high-quality development as China’s national strategy, has not yet received sufficient attention for its urban shrinkage. Accordingly, this study constructs an evaluation index system for the shrinkage of cities in the YRB from four dimensions: population, economy, society and space. The entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are to determine the weights, the shrinkage model, the transfer matrix method and the exploratory spatial data analysis method are used to study the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of 62 cities with data in the YRB. Random forest (RF) regression method was used to explore the influencing factors affecting the formation of urban shrinkage in the YRB and their influencing roles. The research results show that: (1) urban shrinkage in the YRB is characterized by spatial differentiation and shows a trend of drastic and concentrated development, with the shrinkage phenomenon becoming more and more significant; the degree of population shrinkage, economic shrinkage and social shrinkage is dominated by slight or moderate; the degree of space shrinkage and comprehensive shrinkage is dominated by high and heavy. (2) The reduction in the number of shrinking cities indicates a diminishing urban shrinkage across all dimensions, with a progressively increasing impact. (3) The accuracy of RF regression is high, and the main factors affecting the shrinkage of cities in the YRB account for 60.66%. An in-depth exploration of the characteristics of urban shrinkage and its development dynamics in the YRB from a multidimensional perspective will help to narrow the imbalance of urban development, promote high-quality development, and provide an essential reference to promote the progress of urban shrinkage research on a regional scale.

Rethinking shrinking cities through urban flows: Network-based insights into coordinated development

Urban shrinkage poses multidimensional challenges to achieving balanced and sustainable development, especially in rapidly transitioning societies like China. This study rethinks shrinking cities from a spatial flow and network-based perspective by integrating intercity migration and investment data into a coordinated development framework. Drawing on a nationwide dataset covering 345 cities, we construct flow-based urban networks and apply the Coupling Coordination Degree Model (CCDM) to assess how well economic, social, and environmental systems are functioning in tandem. Our results reveal pronounced regional disparities: shrinking cities in Northeast China show the lowest levels of coordination, while those in economically developed regions demonstrate significantly higher coordination levels. Migration and investment flows from shrinking cities are predominantly directed towards cities with higher coordination levels, but this relationship is weaker for shrinking cities themselves. Distinct factors influencing coordinated development are identified among different types of shrinking cities, underscoring the necessity of region-specific and targeted policy interventions to address urban shrinkage and promote sustainable development.

The consequence of urban shrinkage: Investigation on the local fiscal revenue

The consequence of urban shrinkage: Investigation on the local fiscal revenue

Erratum to “Can smart city development alleviate urban shrinkage in the traditional urban development process?” [Cities 160 (2025) 105847

Erratum to “Can smart city development alleviate urban shrinkage in the traditional urban development process?” [Cities 160 (2025) 105847

Accelerating land use carbon emissions in shrinking counties: a systematic analysis of land use dynamics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, 2000–2020

Urban shrinkage, characterized by population loss and economic decline, poses unique challenges to carbon neutrality goals. While existing studies focus on energy-related emissions in shrinking cities, the role of land use dynamics remains underexplored. This study systematically investigates land use carbon emissions (LUCE) in shrinking counties to address this gap. Focusing on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region (2000–2020), we integrated population indices, land use data, energy statistics, and nightlight imagery to classify counties into non-shrinking, continuous, temporary, and potential shrinkage types. Direct and indirect carbon emissions were estimated using emission coefficients and energy consumption models. Key findings include: (1) Non-shrinking counties, concentrated in urban cores, exhibit higher LUCE but slower growth rates, whereas shrinking peripheral counties show lower emissions but faster LUCE growth. (2) Continuous shrinkage counties experience the highest LUCE growth due to inefficient built-up area expansion, despite having significant carbon sinks. (3) Severe shrinkage counties demonstrate the fastest total carbon emissions (TCE) growth, with per capita emissions (PCE) positively correlated to shrinkage intensity. These findings highlight the need for differentiated policies: prioritizing land-use efficiency in shrinking counties, integrating regional equity into emission governance, and leveraging carbon sinks in ecologically rich areas.

Can smart city development alleviate urban shrinkage in the traditional urban development process?

Can smart city development alleviate urban shrinkage in the traditional urban development process?

The Impact of Urban Shrinkage on Carbon Emission Intensity and Its Spatial Spillover Effects

Cities are important consumers of resources, and their carbon emissions are key to realizing China’s dual-carbon goals. However, the trend of urban shrinkage has grown increasingly pronounced in recent years, and how this affects the carbon emissions of cities is a major issue that deserves to be studied. This study zeroes in on 278 Chinese cities that rank at or above the prefectural level between 2012 and 2021, employs a comprehensive analytical framework, incorporating multiple methodological approaches including entropy-based measurement, panel fixed-effects regression, mediating effect analysis, and spatial econometric modeling, to systematically investigate how urban shrinkage affects carbon emission intensity. The study’s findings indicate the following: (1) Urban contraction exacerbates the further increase in carbon emission intensity. (2) Mechanism tests show that human capital level and industrial structure advancement are the primary pathways through which urban shrinkage influences carbon intensity. (3) Urban contraction has a greater effect on increasing carbon emission intensity in central, western, and resource-dependent cities, according to the heterogeneity study. (4) Urban shrinkage lowers nearby cities’ carbon intensity through spatial spillovers.

China's Shrinkage Varieties: Addressing Long-Term and Recent Population Loss in Eastern and Northeastern Regions

China is facing an increasingly serious problem of urban shrinkage, which is embodied in the long-term massive population loss in the northeast and the short-term small population loss in the East. By comparing the characteristics of cities from several dimensions and referring to some successful cases of preventing urban shrinkage, this paper explores urban shrinkage in two different regions and development models within China. Two typical shrinkage cities, Wenzhou and Jixi, are selected as samples for this study, while statistical analyses are conducted with the help of public government information data. The result of this research is that due to varying city development patterns, Wenzhou and Jixi exhibit distinct types of shrinkage. There are different solutions for different types of urban shrinkage. Both cities should actively explore new industries and upgrade existing ones to enhance livability and community vitality, meeting residents' needs for better lives and achieving a win-win outcome.

När utrymmet inte räcker till. Konsekvensen av förtätning för förskolors utevistelser

Idag saknar förskolor i både större och mindre städer i allt större utsträckning lämpliga utomhusmiljöer för sina dagliga utomhusaktiviteter. Artikeln visar hur relationen mellan förskolors sociala och rumsliga förutsättningar och stadsrummets krympande öppna ytor för barns lek, umgänge och rekreation blottlades och ställdes på sin spets under covid-19-pandemin. Med utgångspunkt i teorier om hur policy iscensätts och görs till handling i praktiken (Ball et al., 2011), mobilitetspraktiker (Nansen et al., 2015) och med en mobil etnografisk ansats (Cresswell, 2012) diskuterar vi hur två innerstadsförskolor hanterade Skolverkets uppmaning att vistas ute så mycket som möjligt under pandemin. En viktig del av pandemins ”utomhuspolicy” var att börja och avsluta förskoledagen utomhus. I artikelns analyser framträder hur pedagoger och barn tillsammans – och i konkurrens med andra – skapar plats för förskoleaktiviteter i den täta staden. I analyserna framgår vikten av att se till lokala kontextuella förutsättningar i förståelsen av förskolors möjligheter att tidsrumsligt organisera och genomföra vardagliga utevistelser i det offentliga rummet. Resultaten visar att då utbildnings- och stadsplanering inte tillhandahåller lämpliga miljöer för förskolebarns utevistelser läggs ansvaret för detta över på förskolorna. Det blir i praktiken förskolepedagogernas uppgift att hantera stadsmiljöns bristande tillgång på platser för barns lek, rörelse och platsanknytning. ENGLISH ABSTRACT When Space is not Enough. Consequence of Densification for Preschool’s Outdoor Activities Preschool yards, functional for daily outdoor activities, are often lacking in contemporary large as well as smaller cities. Our analysis shows how the relation between preschool’s social and spatial conditions and urban shrinking space for children’s play, socialization and recreation, was exposed and brought to a head during the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on theories of policy enactment (Ball et al., 2011), mobility practices (Nansen et al., 2015) and with a mobile ethnographic approach (Cresswell, 2012), we discuss how two innercity preschools handled the pandemic’s ’outdoor policy’, especially how to start and finish the preschool day outdoors. The analysis shows how teachers and children collaborate in creating space for preschool activities in the dense city, and how this is done in competition with other preschool groups. The analysis shows the importance of taking local contextual conditions into consideration, for understanding preschools possibilities to time- spatially organize and conduct everyday outings in public space. The results show that when educational and urban planning do not provide for proper preschool yards, the responsibility for children’s access to spaces for play, movement and place-attachment is transferred to preschool staff to handle in public space.

Impact of Shrinking Cities on Carbon Emission Efficiency in China

The issue of urban carbon emission efficiency (CEE) has become a critical problem for global sustainable development, particularly in China, where the phenomenon of shrinking cities has emerged after rapid urbanization. Using panel data from 283 Chinese prefecture-level cities (2000–2016), we examine how urban shrinkage affects CEE through both direct and spatial spillover effects. Our findings show that urban shrinkage significantly improves CEE both directly and indirectly; when a city shrinks, it increases the local CEE by 0.0132%, while the contraction of adjacent cities enhances the local CEE by 0.0312%, leading to a total improvement of 0.0445%. However, the overall CEE in shrinking cities remains lower than the nationwide average, with values consistently below 0.5. The main determinants of CEE are GDP per capita and population size, which show significant direct positive effects but opposing regional spillover effects. These findings offer important insights for urban development policies and sustainable city management in the context of population decline.

Economic motives of homo economicus location decisions in the context of shrinking cities in Poland

Motivation: Currently, two trends are observed in the development of cities worldwide. There is a group of cities that have been systematically growing in population and a group of cities that have been rapidly losing their inhabitants in recent years (this is the so-called process of urban shrinkage). Many factors condition decisions to leave one's city and choose another. Therefore, this article addresses the problem of identifying economic factors that may influence decisions about the choice of the place of life and work of the economic man (homo economicus – h.e.). The concept of h.e. is based on the assumption of the rationality of economic decisions (in terms of consumption and economic activity) made by the economic man. It may also allow us to understand his location decisions. This man is guided by the desire to achieve the maximum return on all his actions. Aim: The research aimed to identify factors that differentiate shrinking cities from cities that are not undergoing this process in the context of the decision of the homo economicus to change the place of residence and choose his new place of residence. Results: The conducted research shows that h.e. when deciding whether and where to leave in search of a better place to live and work, may take into account factors that differentiate shrinking cities from cities that are not experiencing a loss of inhabitants. These factors include, in particular, local investment expenditure, expenditure on education and social welfare, housing situation, city innovation manifested in the development of higher-order services, and unemployment level. The values ​​of indicators describing these features indicate a better situation of growth cities compared to shrinking cities. In shrinking cities, a worse situation may affect migration decisions h.e., while in growth cities, their favorable levels may attract h.e.

Urban shrinkage and carbon emissions: Demand-side accounting for Chinese cities

Urban shrinkage and carbon emissions: Demand-side accounting for Chinese cities

Vacant houses and age structure: a correlation analysis study in Japan

ABSTRACT In the global context, the phenomenon of urban shrinking has grown increasingly prominent in many cities. It poses challenges to urban planning and regional development, such as the occurrence of vacant houses. In the context of Japan, the demographic condition has substantially changed over the last few decades into a declining and aging population. The situation has been discussed in many articles as the main factor in the proliferation of vacant houses across the country. Regarding this issue, this study aims to examine the correlation between the age structure composition and the number of vacant houses according to the classification of vacant houses. The study employs quantitative analysis based on the official government data of vacant houses and age structure composition. The study found that there was a strong positive correlation between the age structure composition and the number of vacant houses. Furthermore, the study revealed that areas with a higher percentage of elderly residents tended to have a higher number of vacant house rates. Nevertheless, the investigation also revealed significant correlations with other age groups, indicating that vacant houses are not exclusively influenced by the elderly population but rather by a more intricate demographic landscape. Understanding the impact of age composition on vacant houses can help policymakers develop targeted strategies to address this issue. By focusing on areas with a high percentage of elderly residents, urban planners can implement initiatives to revitalize neighborhoods and reduce the number of vacant properties.

Impact of Urban Shrinkage on Pollution Reduction and Carbon Mitigation Synergy: Spatial Heterogeneity and Interaction Effects in Chinese Cities

Increasing air pollution, rising carbon emissions, and urban shrinkage pose significant challenges for sustainable urban development in China. Exploring the relationship between urban shrinkage and the synergy effect of pollution reduction and carbon mitigation (SPRCR) can contribute to systematically addressing the challenges of urban green development. However, few studies have analyzed all three factors within a unified analytical framework. Therefore, our study takes 288 cities at the prefecture level and above in China as the research objects and endeavors to apply the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD), Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR), and Geodetector (v2.1.0) to analyze the influence of urban shrinkage on SPRCR. From our analysis, it was demonstrated that (1) in general, urban shrinkage can inhibit an improvement in the synergistic degree of SPRCR, but the degree of inhibition is weak. (2) The relationship between urban shrinkage and this synergy shows spatial heterogeneity, with the negative impact of urban shrinkage on SPRCR mainly concentrated in the northeast region. (3) The interaction effect between urban shrinkage and construction land expansion is more significant than that between urban shrinkage and other factors, and the enhancement effect is most obvious. Given the regional differences in urban development, our study provides valuable insights for promoting sustainable urban development.

Planning for Degrowth: Insights from Shrinking Cities

Urban shrinkage and degrowth are parallel processes or projects that, despite clear differences, bear striking resemblance in refocusing attention on the limits to (economic) growth; yet they are rarely related or critically compared for policy learning. This paper attempts to do just that by exploring what insights drawn from existing empirical evidence on shrinking cities might reveal for the political project of degrowth in an increasingly uneven and exhausted capitalist world. Many cities now facing a future of low or no growth, or even chronic shrinkage, are innovating collaborative partnerships and alternative policies for more sustainable, equitable and less damaging forms of economic development in ways which contest arguments against degrowth as unviable, ineffective or iniquitous and point in directions towards a post-growth future.

Картографирование структуры жилищного фонда моногородов в целях анализа городского сжатия

The article discusses the methodological aspects of producing maps showing changes in the structure of the residential housing as a result of urban shrinkage. By integrating remote sensing data, statistical information, and field survey data, a comprehensive insight into the dynamics of the residential housing was achieved. The algorithmic framework was tested in three successive stages in three single-industry cities such as Anzhero-Sudzhensk, Novoshakhtinsk, and Kimovsk – former coal mining centers. By examining many data sources, patterns of urban shrinkage were revealed. The resulting cartographic representations serve as a basis for analyzing the patterns of urban shrinkage and the spatial distribution of abandoned buildings, providing an insight into the dynamics of demolished and remaining residential areas. The studied dynamics of urban regions confirm the presence of urban shrinkage features in post-Soviet Russia, where former mining towns have lost their industrial specialization

Monitoring Fine-Scale Urban Shrinkage Space with NPP-VIIRS Imagery

Urban shrinkage is a significant challenge to sustainable urban development. To date, the existing research has yet to analyze urban shrinkage at a fine-scale level. This study addresses this gap by employing nighttime light (NTL) data, which, due to its strong correlation with human activity and high spatial–temporal resolution, offers a robust approach for micro-scale population estimation. This paper aims to explore the characteristics and formation mechanisms of urban shrinkage spaces in Guangzhou, using NTL data and applying ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models. The correlational analysis reveals a marked improvement in model fit with GWR (R2 = 0.91) compared with OLS (R2 = 0.63), confirming the predictive power of NTL-based GWR for population mapping and the spatial delineation of urban shrinkage. We demonstrate that urban shrinkage spaces in Guangzhou are predominantly distributed in the outer suburbs, while urban growth is concentrated within the urban core area and inner suburbs. The formation of urban shrinkage in Liwan District examined as a case study, is primarily influenced by market factors, government actions, and regulatory constraints—a constellation of factors likely generalizable with other contexts of urban shrinkage. A comprehensive understanding of urban shrinkage at a fine-scale level is imperative for policy makers to optimize urban land use planning and mitigate the factors contributing to shrinkage space, thereby promoting sustainable urban development.

Spatiotemporal Evolution Mechanism and Spatial Correlation Network Effect of Resilience in Different Shrinking Cities in China

Bolstering the resilience of shrinking cities (SCs) is essential for maintaining urban dynamic security and fostering sustainable development. Accurately assessing and revealing the resilience level and impact mechanism of SCs to cope with disturbances and shocks has become a hot topic of research in urban sustainable development. In this research, we presented a systematic conceptualization of the fundamental components of urban shrinkage (US) and urban resilience (UR) and, based on US and UR theories, constructed a methodological framework aimed at investigating the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism and spatial correlation network effect of resilience in different SCs in China. This paper initially evaluates the UR levels of various types of SCs in China by establishing an evaluation model for US and a multidimensional evaluation index system for UR based on the theoretical frameworks, aligned with the national context in China. We also define the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of UR for different types of SCs. Subsequently, this paper employs a coupled coordination model and a geographical detector model to elucidate the influencing mechanisms on UR of different types of SCs, focusing on UR subsystems and indicators. Finally, this paper empirically examines the spatial correlation network effects of UR under various US scenarios using a social network analysis model. The results show that many SCs have progressively adjusted to the challenges posed by US, and the UR of SCs has shown an upward trend from 2010 to 2021. Cities with higher US levels generally show lower coordination in UR subsystems. The comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste and road freight per capita are crucial for improving the UR of cities with higher US levels. Moreover, US probably strengthens UR connections between cities, facilitating resilience transmission and dissemination. These findings advance UR research within the US framework and offer theoretical foundations and planning guidance for environmentally friendly and high-quality development in shrinking cities.

Activity capacity-based urban shrinkage trend prediction model and response strategy comparison approach

Activity capacity-based urban shrinkage trend prediction model and response strategy comparison approach

Beyond binaries in the urban politics of the senses: Ambivalent sensory encounters in French medium-sized shrinking cities

This article contributes to scholarly analyses of urban sensory politics, which emphasise the ‘othering’ strategies of middle-class residents targeting the sensory practices and embodied presence of marginalised urban residents. It introduces greater nuance to three structuring binaries that are readily apparent in current scholarly understandings of urban sensory politics: disrupted/disruptive; familiar/unfamiliar; and oppressive/emancipatory. The article focuses on the sensory politics at work in contexts of urban shrinkage. Shrinking cities are characterised by specific processes of economic, spatial and social change, where affordable housing continues to attract new residents, including a growing proportion of socially and economically marginalised people, even as demographic decline eats away at the urban core. The proximity of people of varied socioeconomic statuses with different lifestyles gives rise to sensory encounters marked by difference, and at times tension. I ask, how can we understand the complex and ambivalent sensory experiences of urban change in medium-sized shrinking cities? Drawing on ethnographic material collected in two French shrinking cities, Dieppe and Nevers, and focusing on more vulnerable residents attracted by affordable housing, I analyse a series of ambivalent sensory encounters , marked by intricate, plural, sometimes contradictory feelings and meanings.