Urban Growth Trends Research Articles

Quantifying Circular Urban Expansion Patterns of Compact Chinese Cities: The Case of Yangtze River Delta, China

Accelerating urbanization all over the world has renewed interdisciplinary interest and public concerns over sustainable urban forms. Despite abundant literature on the concentric model and its application to urban land-use patterns, a rigorous and straightforward methodology to characterize the model quantitatively in space is especially needed. In this paper we present a diagramatic method and refine five indicators to measure and clarify the circular pattern of urban expansion. With remote sensing data, the approach has been examined for the sample set of fifty-one cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China. The five indicators adopted illustrated that most of YRD cities display a compact centralized form with a relatively small matured core area and are undergoing fast expansion. Furthermore, we have found distinctive local models of density gradient in built-up areas, shaped by urban population size and local institutional structures. The preliminary results related to the methodology are inspiring, which should be useful for elucidating urban growth trends and for decision making.

Population Growth and Its Impact on Urban Expansion: A Case Study of Bahawalpur, Pakistan

Land cover analysis and land use transformations, which are mainly associated with population growth, are considered as essential elements for studying the relationship between population growth, land use conversions and environmental consequences. Most cities of the world are becoming urbanized with every passing day and human induced land cover changes are modifying the pattern of land use in urban areas. Currently, Pakistan is standing at an influential place with regard to the size of its population, occupying sixth position among the world countries. Almost all its administrative entities have experienced unprecedented population growth throughout its entire life. Its urban areas are expanding more rapidly than their rural counterparts due to both by natural increase and by rural-urban migration. Study area for the current research, Bahawalpur is one of the fastest growing cities of Pakistan ranking twelfth among the cities of Punjab Province. This study aims at to examine the historical population growth of the city since last fifty years correlated with changing land use pattern and urban area expansion. Study is based on secondary data analysis using urban expansion indices for measuring the rate of urban change with increasing population growth. Application of regression model also verifies the increasing rate of urban area with population size and indicates an alarming situation for urban and city planners. Trend of urban growth in Bahawalpur shows that city is moving promptly towards highly urbanized cities of Pakistan. Its unprecedented and unplanned expansion may cause serious urban problems. Thus, it needs a serious look and attention of city planners. This study can also be helpful in providing some base line information.

Design and implementation strategy of a parallel agent-based Schelling model

This paper illustrates the detailed design and implementation strategy of a high-performance, parallel agent-based Schelling model. There are four key issues to implement a parallel agent-based Schelling model, i.e., the ability to handle (1) the complexity of real data processing; (2) spatial data decomposition; (3) the preference and tolerance rates for multiple ethnic groups; and (4) the communication between agents. A new parallel algorithm that addresses these issues while retaining the fundamental concepts of the original sequential Schelling model was built. The parallel Schelling model was applied to the County of San Diego’s one million household agents and one million housing unit agents using land use data and 2000 Decennial Census data. Experiments using varying numbers of CPU cores demonstrate that the computational performance of the parallel Schelling model positively correlates with increased numbers of CPU cores. This paper focuses on the implementation of a parallel agent-based Schelling model. The Schelling model is parallelized to illustrate how high-performance computing can elicit better understanding of real-world geospatial phenomena. By leveraging distributed computing resources in geospatial cyberinfrastructure, the parallel Schelling model has the potential to become a crucial component in spatial decision support systems and to help policy makers understand the key trends in urban population, urban growth, and residential segregation.

Land Use Dynamics and Expansion of the Built-Up Area in Benin City, Nigeria

The dynamics of the urban form in relation to anthropogenic activities leaves much to be desired in its study for proper and timely planning of the urban environment. This, therefore, brings to bear the urgent need for the use of modern digital town planning techniques that can easily provide accurate data for efficient planning preference to the continual use of conventional analogue methods which make town planning data readily available. In view of this, this study monitored the growth of Benin City between 1987 and 2008 using the contemporary remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Thus, the study aimed at examining the trend of urban growth in the study area with a view to examining its consequence on the land use pattern. The methods adopted for this research involves the use of remotely sensed data from Landsat TM and Landsat ETM. Ground truthing was also carried out to corroborate the data from the satellite images. Secondary data from the literature relevant to the study were also obtained. The results showed that Benin City was expanding rapidly leading to an inverse spill over effect on the vegetation resources of the peripheral area. This has placed a serious burden on the Department of Town/ Land Use Planning saddled with the responsibility to properly integrate these adjoining rural settlements into the already existing urban form. In addition, the results showed that at the rate Benin-City was expanding, if not checked will in no distant future pose a threat to the micro-climate of the area and food production. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n20p2506

Artificialization and Islandness on the Spanish Tourist Coast

Abstract This article analyses recent trends in coastal urban growth, mainly prompted by tourism in its various forms, experienced along the Spanish Mediterranean coasts and the Canary Islands, with a special focus on the Balearic Islands. The article seeks to measure and compare the differential rates of urban growth between island and continental coasts during the period 1990-2006, coinciding with the latest major economic growth cycle in Southwestern Europe, and where real estate and tourism activities have played a central role. The results suggest that the degree of urbanization in island coastal regions analysed is lower than that of mainland coastal regions.

Practice of Real Estate Business in Bangladesh: Prospects & Problems of High-rise building

Real Estate Business provides the means of serving one of the basic needs of human being living in the citythe need for shelter or house. The current trend of urban growth in Bangladesh is about 5-6 percent per annum (REHAB, 2013).This will change and increase the demand of people geometrically. At present 28 percent people live in urban areas which are expecting to be 34 percent in 2025 (The Daily Ittefaq, May, 2013). The present estimated population of Dhaka city is 15.93 million and estimated growth rate is 4.7 percent per annum (REHAB, 2013). All these people need shelter. To satisfy the housing need of this huge explosive population, here comes the need of real estate sector. The main focus of this research is the present scenario of real estate business in Bangladesh. This paper also highlights prospects and some problems of high-rise building. The study is descriptive in nature and data were gathered through primary and secondary sources. The result of this study show how real estate business are playing very important role to provide housing facilities regardless of high, middle and low-income people since the past two decades and also creates job opportunities for the unemployed people in Bangladesh and provided remarkable contribution to boost up overall economic conditions of Bangladesh.

Simulating the urban growth dimensions and scenario prediction through sleuth model: a case study of Rasht County, Guilan, Iran

Urban growth models (UGM) as regional planning tools are of great interest for quantitative analysis of urban complex systems. In this study, the SLEUTH UGM has been calibrated through a sequential multistage automated method to derive the pattern of urban growth in Rasht County from 1975 up to year 2011. Evaluation of model goodness of fit confirms that the model is adjusted properly to the area under investigation. Four growth rules of spontaneous, new spreading center, edge and road influenced growth as well as five coefficients of diffusion, breed, spread, road gravity and slope resistance are responsible to detect quantitative aspects of urban dynamics from control years. According to the results, successive improvement of the model parameters during the calibration mode indicates applicability of the model for forecasting of future urban growth mechanism until the year 2050. Accordingly, two growth scenarios were developed mainly with the aim of investigating the coefficients’ role in controlling the nature of urban dynamics. In this concern, the spread and road gravity coefficients’ value, as two major driving forces of urban sprawl in the study area were reduced to dictate compact and infill growth, compared to their original values derived from calibration for historical prediction. Comparison between two forecasted scenarios indicates insignificant difference in total amount of the urban area, which denotes there is a threshold to urbanization and the current trend of urban growth could not be maintained. Finally, we conclude that Rasht County with considerable industrial and agricultural attractions, will witness noticeable expansion from 20,310 ha in 2011, up to 34,745 ha in 2050, accounting to 71 % increase in total area of manmade surfaces.

Fractal Analysis in the Indian Stock Market with Special Reference to CNX 500 Index Returns

Fractal Analysis assesses the fractal characteristics of data. It consists of several methods to assign a fractal dimension and other fractal characteristics in a data set which may be a theoretical data set or a pattern of signals extracted from phenomena including natural geometric objects, sound, market fluctuations, heart rates, digital images, molecular motion, networks, etc. A fractal dimension is an index for characterizing fractal patterns or sets by quantifying their complexity as a ratio of the change in detail to the change in scale. Fractal dimensions are used to characterize a broad spectrum of objects ranging from the abstract to practical phenomena including turbulence, river networks, urban growth, human physiology, medicine, and market trends. Analysing the fractal structure is now widely used in stock market to predict the future prices. The main aim of this study is to analyze the fractal dimension in CNX 500 index returns which is India’s first broad based benchmark of the Indian capital market.

The growth of urban communities in Kenya

Like most of Africa, Kenya is also characterized by rapid urban community growth. This article discusses and analyzes current trends in Kenya's urban community growth, the factors that have contributed to that urban community growth, and the resultant consequences and development implications of such rapid urban community growth in the country. The article ends with recommendations for managing the rapid urban community growth in Kenya.

MODEL KELEMBAGAAN KAWASAN METROPOLITAN DI INDONESIA

Metropolitan area in Indonesia is growing as fast as population’s growth andeconomic activities that go along with agglomeration process in all aspects inexisting big cities such as Jakarta, Surabaya, Medan, Bandung, Makassar andothers. It is pity that trend of functional urban growth is not anticipated and early prepared with setting up the metropolitan institution that optimally and effectively manage the development and growth of the big cities in Indonesia. To anticipate, it is needed model of the metropolitan institution appropriate with valid law and regulations.

An Assessment of the Growth of Ile-Ife, Osun State Nigeria, Using Multi-Temporal Imageries

This paper examined the use of GIS and Remote Sensing in monitoring the growth and development pattern of Ile-Ife, Osun State, Nigeria over a period of 21 years with a view to predicting its direction of growth. In effect, the study sought to identify and explain the rate and extent of changes in the study area between 1986 and 2007; measure the rate of urban growth in the study area between 1986 and 2007; assess the impact of urban growth on land use patterns; and predict the trend of urban growth in the study area. Data for the study were generated from both primary and secondary sources. Remote Sensing Imagery of Landsat TM 1986, Landsat ETM 2002 and ALOS 2007 were used to measure the extent of growth and to show the effects of this growth on other Land use/Land cover types. Multi-temporal approach was adopted for the study to detect the changes in the imageries. Pixel analysis was employed to identify and compare the type, nature, trend and magnitude of change that occurred in the study area within the slated dates. The observed land use/land cover and population were projected to the next 15 years. The results showed the growth of Ile-Ife and its effects on other land use classes. Pixel analysis revealed that changes occurred in the magnitude and rate of urbanization in the study area between 1986 and 2007. The results were discussed mainly focusing on the trend of urban growth expansion and its effect to the Environment natural resources, farmland and food security and its contribution to climate change. Its implications to urban planning were also discussed and the recommendations made.

Global urban growth: a reference handbook

This book examines the rapid expansion of urban areas worldwide, especially within the previous 50 years, identifying the factors that have contributed to this phenomenon and exploring its many consequences. * A pie chart illustrating recent land use in the United States * A bibliography containing reviews of over 40 recommended books and journals that provide insights into global urban growth trends * A full list of topical subjects for easy reference

Urban watershed management under rapid urbanization

Recent years have witnessed a trend of rapid urban growth, accompanied by a significant impact on the environment, in many parts of the world. For example, in China, an extraordinary urbanization process has exerted enormous pressures on water resources and the urban environment as well as ecological systems. Protecting the water environment is now one of the most important and pressing issues that demand great attention. Urban watershed management is therefore critically important to the sustainable use of water resources and the protection of valuable eco-systems. The objective of the International Conference on Urban Watershed Management (ICUWM), inaugurated in 1997 at the University of Virginia, is to provide a forum for international professionals to share research and experiences in watershed management practices. The 8th ICUWM was organized and hosted by the School of Environment at Tsinghua University in Beijing, China during September 6–8, 2011 as part of the university’s Centennial celebration activities. Co-organizers and sponsors included the Urban Water Resources Research Council (UWRRC) of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Environmental and Water Resources Institute (EWRI), the Urban Watershed Management Branch (UWMB) of the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), the University of Virginia, and the H2-O China. In addition, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) sponsored a parallel “Workshop on Water-Food-Energy Security”, which is a subject of critical importance that intertwined with subjects of the ICUWM. Specific topics for the 8 ICUWM ranged from urban water environment management, such as water sustainable urbanization, lake/river restoration; water environment research, such as planning/design/monitoring of best management practices (BMPs), low impact development (LID), to regulatory and institutional aspects of urban water management. A total of seven keynote speeches and sixty-eight papers from many parts of the world were presented at the Conference. In order to make the significant presentations available to a broader readership; a number of papers were selected and, after the normal peer-review process, published in this issue of Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering (FESE). The FESE Editorial Office’s assistance is much appreciated.

An analysis of urban growth trends in the post-economic reforms period in India

Abstract Significant changes have been observed since 1991 in the nature and pattern of urban growth in India. Our cities are in the midst of restructuring space, in terms of both use and form. The paper addresses various complex urban issues associated with the present pattern of urban development through review of urban development of selected metropolitan cities of India which have experienced the impacts of LPG (Liberalization, Privatization and Globalization) process. Spatial trends, prevailing zoning, building bye laws (Floor Area Ratio and density) development control regulations, urban housing and transport are analyzed in the context of the current phenomenon of urban sprawl witnessed in India. The implications of such growth patterns of India are projected and the impacts analyzed. In conclusion, the need for an alternative sustainable urban development pattern is outlined for future metropolitan cities of India.

Manifestation of Remote Sensing Data in Modeling Urban Sprawl Using the SLEUTH Model and Brute Force Calibration: A Case Study of Sana’a City, Yemen

Sana’a the metropolitan capital of Yemen, has experienced rapid spatial growth and uncontrolled development for decades. In the absence of a means to forecast and predict urban growth trends, planning and urban policy decisions have been found wanting. In this study the SLEUTH (Slope, landuse, exclusion, urban extent, transportation and hillshade) model which has been widely and successfully applied in developed countries, has been applied to predict the spatial urban sprawl pattern from 2004–2020 in Sana’a. This was to provide the necessary forecast for better planning and decision making. The model performed well as per the calibration coefficient values. The results showed that there will a 29 % increase in spatial urban sprawl growth during the modeling period. Growth of the sprawl will be mainly at the edges of the urban boundary, there will also be a wide area of scattered urban clusters. Factors that will have major influence on spatial expansion of the city will be diffusion, natural and internal growth, slope (that will hinder spread) and transportation (along which most of the urban sprawl will occur). The study also provides an insight into how the SLEUTH model performs in a poorly planned urban environment as compared to the planned and controlled environment where it has been applied.

Simulating urban growth processes incorporating a potential model with spatial metrics

Urbanization is one phenomena that drives land use pattern change. Persistent rapid urbanization is associated with depletion of natural resources and worsening conditions in the urban environment. Monitoring urban development is, therefore, an absolute necessity in order to assure sustainable cities in the future. The main objective of this paper is to develop and apply an urban growth potential model incorporating spatial metrics. The model has been tested in Jinan City, China. Firstly, two satellite images (1989 and 2004 SPOT) were used to extract the land-cover. A general land use spatial pattern analysis, based on landscape metrics and a transformation matrix analysis, was conducted. Secondly, a moving window method was used to identify and capture the urbanization process through the PLAND landscape metric. The remote satellite data have been further processed: first to produce an initial state of the land-cover surface, and second to perform a time-series analysis and to assess the potential accuracy of the model application. In the second step, the calibrated model was used to predict the location of the urban growth over 16 years (2004–2020). The results indicated there will be a significant land use change until 2020. However, the spatial distribution of the potential growth areas is not homogenous. The study has confirmed the usefulness of a growth potential model incorporating the moving window method to predict urban growth trends and examining the impacts of urban development on natural resources. The results can provide decision support documents for urban planners and stakeholders with spatially explicit information for future planning and monitoring plans.

Mapping Urban Water Demands Using Multi-Criteria Analysis and GIS

A multi-criteria spatial data analysis method is presented to seek and model major determinants of future growth of urban water demands based on the urban growth trend by a case study performed in the city of Mytilene (Lesvos island) in north-eastern Aegean archipelagos, Greece. Domestic water use/demand is a complex element of socio-economic and physical characteristics, urban planning strategies, infrastructures and public water policies. Under a GIS environment, these factors correspond to different thematic layers, such as road network distance, distance from the city centre, distance from the coastline, topographic slope, land use/land cover, General Urban Plan of Mytilene, areas in which buildings with less than two storeys are allowed, the respective areas of buildings with more than two storeys, present population density and existing water supply and sewerage system. The Analytical Hierarchy Process applied in the evaluation of these factors led to spatial potential water demand map, which was classified into five priority zones. Results showed that a large percentage of the study area was identified as very high and high priority areas for future domestic water demand. The applied method was verified against the prepared maps showing the varying rates of water consumption and active water connections. The comparative evaluation of these maps validated the accuracy of the proposed method which can be used by the local officials of Mytilene in adopting policies and strategies aiming towards sustainable water resource management and development.

Impact of Demographic Trends on Future Development Patterns and the Loss of Open Space in the California Mojave Desert

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Potential suitability for urban planning and industry development using natural hazard maps and geological–geomorphological parameters

During the planning of an urban environment, usually only economic and social parameters are taken into account. As a result, urban areas are susceptible to natural disasters, which cause extensive damages in them, because the cities or towns have been repeatedly located in vulnerable areas. In this study, for the protection of human environment, is proposed a unique approach of urban planning and sustainable development. The study area is Trikala Prefecture (Western Thessaly, Central Greece). An integrated evaluation of the suitable areas for urban growth and light industry development is proposed by using mainly natural hazards as well as geological–geomorphological–geographical characteristics of the study area. The used parameters were correlated by using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method and incorporated into a geographic information system (GIS) in order to produce the corresponding suitability maps. The study area is classified in five categories of very high, high, moderate, low, and very low suitability for urban growth and industrial development. Moreover, the spatio-temporal changes of the urban limits are studied since 1885 for the three major towns (Trikala, Kalambaka and Pyli) of the study area. These changes sketch out the urban growth trend. The comparison between the urban growth trend with the potential suitability for urban growth and industrial development of these towns lead to discrepancies. These can be attributed mainly to the fact that in the majority of cases, only geographical, social, and economical factors were used for urban development, whereas in our study, natural hazards, geomorphological, and geographical parameters were quantified and taken into account.

A multi-level spatial urban pressure analysis of the Giza pyramid plateau in Egypt

Urban sprawl has deleterious effects on natural and man-made landscapes and, therefore, on the attractiveness of visitor and tourist areas. The spread of urban land use has prompted a significant loss of biodiversity and an increasing vulnerability of fragile natural and man-made systems. A prominent example of this threat for cultural heritage is the urban pressure on the Giza pyramid complex in Cairo, Egypt. This paper analyses urban growth trends within the Greater Cairo Metropolitan Area, especially the city enclave that is encroaching on the pyramid complex. A distinction is made between macro- and micro-level spatial analysis of urban growth, focusing on the micro-level dimension, with direct consequences for the conservation of cultural heritage and architectural monuments. Clearly, if no actions are taken, the unique architectural legacy of the pyramids of Khufu, Khafre and Menkaure might be lost. By combining spatial land-use information with location awareness of the pyramid complex, this paper aims to shed light on the relevance of spatial analysis and urban growth models as tools to analyse the endangerment of valuable cultural heritage. This paper also suggests new directions for architectural heritage management, within the framework of micro-spatial analysis of the historico-cultural legacy in urban regions.