Unemployment Outflows Research Articles

The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts

We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the US Beveridge curve has changed from 1959 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and matching theories of the labor market. Changes in inflow rates, related to demographics, accounted for Beveridge curve shifts between 1959 and 2000. A reduction in matching efficiency, that depressed unemployment outflows, shifted the curve outwards in the wake of the Great Recession. In contrast, the most recent shifts in the Beveridge curve appear driven by changes in the eagerness of workers to switch jobs. Finally, we argue that, while the Beveridge curve is a useful tool for relating unemployment and job openings to inflation, the link between these labor market indicators and inflation depends on whether and why the Beveridge curve shifted. Therefore, a careful examination of the factors underlying movements in the Beveridge curve is essential for drawing policy conclusions from the joint behavior of unemployment and job openings.

Unemployment benefits and redundancies: Incidence and timing effects

The literature on unemployment insurance (UI) has primarily focused on its impact on unemployment outflows. Using administrative data and a discontinuity in UI benefits at a job tenure threshold, I show that inflows also respond to the generosity of UI. Based on bunching estimates, I measure that 10% of layoffs in an 4-week window before the threshold are delayed, creating a bunching mass on the high-benefit side of the cutoff. Examining the mechanisms, the evidence suggests that employers and employees bargain over contract termination. Taken together, employers and employees show sophisticated reactions to UI with effects on employment duration. However, this retiming response accounts for a very small share of the fiscal externality of differentiating UI benefits at a tenure threshold, relative to the moral hazard cost.

Assistance benefits and unemployment outflows of the elderly unemployed: The impact of a law change

This article examines the impact of a law change in benefit rules on the exit of older workers out of the unemployment benefits system. This change occurred in Spain in July 2012, when the age to become eligible for an unlimited unemployment assistance benefit was raised from 52 to 55, reducing the entitlement period to three years for the group of individuals aged 52–54 years who exhausted their unemployment insurance benefits, providing an ideal setting for a quasi-experimental evaluation. Using data from the Spanish Public Employment Service and the recipients aged 55–57 as a control group, we find that the probability of exiting from unemployment to a job for treated individuals who stopped having access to those benefits after the policy change took place increased substantially, thus reducing the expected duration of benefits recipiency. The estimated fiscal impact of this law change was a saving of around €600 million on the benefits budget.

The ins and outs of Central European unemployment

ABSTRACT We examine the role of unemployment inflows and outflows in contributing to unemployment cyclicality in Czechia and Poland, using data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions, and a three-state model of unemployment variance decomposition. We find that the labour market fluidity is higher in Poland than in Czechia, with Polish workers moving in and out of unemployment more frequently than their Czech counterparts. For both countries, the upward unemployment dynamics was during 2008–2011 driven by counter-cyclical increases in the job-separation rate, rather than by pro-cyclical declines in the job-finding rate. The inflow-outflow split was nonetheless more balanced in Czechia. The two economies further diverged across 2015–2018: Czech unemployment declined prevailingly due to diminishing job separations, while in Poland it was mostly due to improving job-finding prospects. This signals a deeper insider-outsider fragmentation of the Czech labour market, even during the period of economic expansion.

Unemployment transitions and the role of minimum wage: From pre-crisis to crisis and recovery

Abstract During the last decade, unemployment in Greece climbed up to 28%, almost quadrupling due to the economic crisis that hit Greece. In the present paper, we examine the determinants of the unemployment dynamics and the impact of the minimum wage on the probability of making a transition into and out of unemployment. We use micro-level data from the Greek Labour Force Survey (LFS) of the period 2004 to 2019 and control for several demographic factors, macro-economic conditions, regional differences, and changes in the statutory minimum wage. The results suggest that individual-level characteristics play an important role in making a transition into or out of unemployment. Changes in the real minimum wage are estimated to have either a statistically insignificant or a very small impact on unemployment entries and exits. Further, the impact of economy's growth rate follows the theoretical predictions as higher growth rates increase unemployment outflows and decrease inflows, while the regional differences are also important. Our findings persist even when we split the sample in three periods (pre-crisis, crisis, recovery). The results have important policy implications. Given that the disemployment effect of the minimum wage seems to be very limited in the Greek labor market, while the socioeconomic characteristics and regional characteristics play an important role, improving the skills of individuals through the educational system and reskilling or up-skilling programs while targeting specific regions may facilitate labor market mobility.

Asymmetric dynamics between uncertainty and unemployment flows in the United States

Abstract This paper examines how different uncertainty measures affect the unemployment level, inflow, and outflow in the U.S. across all states of the business cycle. We employ linear and nonlinear causality-in-quantile tests to capture a complete picture of the effect of uncertainty on U.S. unemployment. To verify whether there are any common effects across different uncertainty measures, we use monthly data on four uncertainty measures and on U.S. unemployment from January 1997 to August 2018. Our results corroborate the general predictions from a search and matching framework of how uncertainty affects unemployment and its flows. Fluctuations in uncertainty generate increases (upper-quantile changes) in the unemployment level and in the inflow. Conversely, shocks to uncertainty have a negative impact on U.S. unemployment outflow. Therefore, the effect of uncertainty is asymmetric depending on the states (quantiles) of U.S. unemployment and on the adopted unemployment measure. Our findings suggest state-contingent policies to stabilize the unemployment level when large uncertainty shocks occur.

Can Helping the Sick Hurt the Able? Incentives, Information and Disruption in a Welfare Reform

Abstract The UK Jobcentre Plus reform sharpened bureaucratic incentives to help disability benefit recipients (relative to unemployment insurance recipients) into jobs. In the long run, the policy raised exits off diasability benefits by 10% and left unemployment outflows roughly unchanged, consistent with (i) beneficial effects of reorganising welfare offices for both groups, and (ii) a shift in bureaucrats' efforts towards getting disability benefit recipients into jobs relative to those on unemployment benefit. The policy accounted for about 30% of the decline in the aggregate disability rolls between 2003 and 2008. In the short run, however, we detect a reduction in unemployment exits and no effect on disability exits, suggesting important initial disruption effects from the big reorganisation. This highlights the difficulty of welfare reform as policymakers may focus on the short-run political costs rather than the long-run economic benefits.

Decomposing the Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment

AbstractThis paper analyses the contribution of the composition of the pool of employed and unemployed individuals to labour market dynamics in different phases of the business cycle. Using individual‐level data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we decompose differences in employment status transition rates between upswings and downturns into explained and unexplained parts. We find that the duration of unemployment contributes to explaining unemployment outflows to employment and observe that its initially positive contribution turns negative in deep recessions. Composition effects play an important role for unemployment outflows to non‐participation but dampen the cyclicality of unemployment inflows from employment.

Labour market dynamics and worker heterogeneity during the Great Recession – Evidence from Europe

Using harmonised micro data, this paper investigates the effects of the early phase (2008-10) of the recent economic crisis on transitions between labour market states in Europe. Our analysis focuses on individual heterogeneity, on the type of employment contract, and on cross-country differences. Our analysis shows that specific worker groups, such as men and young persons, were particularly strongly hit by the crisis. Furthermore, more transitions from employment, especially temporary employment to unemployment, were the main factor behind rising unemployment. Reduced unemployment outflows did not contribute substantially to the increase in unemployment during the early phase of the crisis. JEL classification: J6, E24

Measuring Inefficiency of the Czech Labour Market

Abstract This paper aims to quantify the performance of the Czech regional labour markets and to reveal the most influential economic factors standing behind its dynamics in the last fifteen years. Investigated labour markets are described using matching function approach. The successful matches are treated as an output of production process, where the unemployed are paired with vacancies. Efficiency of this matching process plays an important role in determining unemployment outflows. Using stochastic frontier model approach, dynamics of quantified efficiency terms is revealed and differences among regions are evaluated. The model specification includes a fixed effect term, where individual effect terms and inefficiency terms are estimated jointly. The stochastic frontier is estimated using monthly and quarterly regional panel data of 77 districts for the period 1999-2014. Matching efficiency of the Czech regional labour markets is negatively influenced people who have been unemployed for a long time and by the unemployed aged over 50 years. Although all districts were able to operate at their stochastic frontiers of matching, an upward trend in the inefficiency has been found within the investigated period. These tendencies are accompanied by rising disparities among the regions. Low levels of estimated matching inefficiency do not necessary mean the low unemployment in the corresponding districts.

Can Helping the Sick Hurt the Able? Incentives, Information and Disruption in a Disability-Related Welfare Reform

Disability rolls have escalated in developed nations over the last 40 years. The UK, however, stands out because the numbers on these benefits stopped rising when a welfare reform was introduced that integrated disability benefits with unemployment insurance (UI). This policy reform improved job information and sharpened bureaucratic incentives to find jobs for the disabled (relative to those on UI). We exploit the fact that the policy was rolled-out quasi-randomly across geographical areas. In the long-run the policy improved the outflows from disability benefits by 6% and had an (insignificant) 1% increase in unemployment outflows. This is consistent with a model where information helps both groups, but bureaucrats were given incentives to shift effort towards helping the disabled find jobs and away from helping the unemployed. Interestingly, in the short-run the policy had a negative impact for both groups, suggesting important disruption effects. We estimate that it takes about six years for the estimated benefits of the reform to exceed its costs, which is beyond the time horizon of most policy-makers.

Labour Market Dynamics and Worker Heterogeneity during the Great Recession: Evidence from Europe

Using harmonized micro data, this paper investigates the effects of the early phase (2008-10) of the recent economic crisis on transitions between labour market states in Europe. Our analysis focuses on individual heterogeneity, on the type of employment contract, and on cross-country differences. Our analysis shows that specific worker groups, such as men and young persons, were particularly strongly hit by the crisis. Furthermore, more transitions from employment, and especially temporary employment to unemployment, were the main factor behind the rise in unemployment; while reduced unemployment outflows did not contribute substantially to the increase in unemployment during the early phase of the crisis.

Fixing the Leak: Unemployment Incidence before and after a Major Reform of Unemployment Benefits in Germany

AbstractWe present first empirical results on the effects of a large scale reduction in unemployment benefit entitlement lengths on unemployment inflows in Germany. We show that this highly disputed element of the Hartz-Reforms in 2006 induced a rush of workers and firms to take advantage of the previous legislation in its last days. Furthermore, we find a considerable decline in transitions to unemployment and an increase in employment rates among older workers after the reform. Our results provide new evidence for the importance of changes in unemployment inflows for the analysis of changes in unemployment outflows.

Unemployment outflows: the relevance of gender and marital status in Italy and Spain

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to shed light on transitions from the state of unemployment to that of employment and of inactivity in Italy and Spain.Design/methodology/approach– First, the paper investigates the determinants of unemployment outflows in these two Mediterranean labour markets. Then, the paper examines discrepancies and similarities between specific outflow determinants, especially the interactions between gender and marital status, by comparing results obtained across countries.Findings– The findings of the paper suggest that gender and marital status influence the probability of unemployment outflows in both countries, although not in the same way, especially with reference to marital status. Discrepancies also emerge in relation to the role of geographical area of residence.Originality/value– International comparisons of unemployment outflows are rather new in the literature, and as far as we know none have been performed using European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data. Further, although studies quite often examine the issue of gender-related labour mobility using the European Community Household Panel survey that took place in the 1990s (Arulampalamet al., 2007; Garcia Pérez and Rebollo Sanz, 2005; Theodossiou and Zangelidis, 2009), one of the main contributions of this paper is that it provides a systematic examination of the issue, considering the influence of gender and marital status differences on patterns of unemployment outflows to employment and inactivity.

How Do Policies Affect the Exit Rate out of Unemployment? Disentangling Job Creation from Labour Market Frictions

AbstractThis paper assesses the effects of labour market policies on the unemployment outflow rate while disentangling two channels, namely labour market tightness and employer–employee matching efficiency. Using a sample of 11 OECD countries over the period 1985–2007, we treat the endogeneity of market tightness with business cycle shocks and the tax wedge as instruments. We find that the replacement rate of unemployment benefits, Active Labour Market Policies as well as the tax wedge in countries with poorly representative unions, have a significant, robust, and large impact on market tightness. Employment protection has a negative but small impact on matching efficiency. Overall, policy effects appear to be mostly channeled through market tightness and job creation.

Policies to Facilitate the Return to Work

This paper reviews labour market policy options to accelerate the return to work after the Great Recession. To do so, it first examines the change over time in the degree of vulnerability to unemployment persistence by looking at the impact of policy determinants on the flows in and out of unemployment. It then considers the prospects for a rebound in the unemployment outflow rate by reviewing evidence regarding matching efficiency and duration dependence. Finally, based on the empirical evidence provided, it assesses the possible contribution of a range of policies to enrich the job content of a post-crisis recovery.

Decomposing the Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment

This paper analyzes the contribution of the socioeconomic and demographic composition of the pool of employed and unemployed individuals to the dynamics of the labor market in different phases of the business cycle. Using individual level data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we decompose differences in employment status transition rates between economic upswings and downturns into composition effects and behavioral effects. We find that overall composition effects play a minor role for the cyclicality of the unemployment outflow rate, although the contribution of the duration of unemployment is significant. In contrast, composition effects dampen the cyclicality of the unemployment inflow rate considerably. We further observe that the initially positive contribution of composition effects to a higher unemployment outflow rate turns negative over the course of the recession.

Decomposing the Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment

This paper analyzes the contribution of the socioeconomic and demographic composition of the pool of employed and unemployed individuals to the dynamics of the labor market in different phases of the business cycle. Using individual level data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we decompose differences in employment status transition rates between economic upswings and downturns into composition effects and behavioral effects. We find that overall composition effects play a minor role for the cyclicality of the unemployment outflow rate, although the contribution of the duration of unemployment is significant. In contrast, composition effects dampen the cyclicality of the unemployment inflow rate considerably. We further observe that the initially positive contribution of composition effects to a higher unemployment outflow rate turns negative over the course of the recession.

How Local are Labor Markets? Evidence from a Spatial Job Search Model

This paper uses data on very small UK geographies to investigate the effective size of local labor markets. Our approach treats geographic space as continuous, as opposed to a collection of non-overlapping administrative units, thus avoiding problems of mismeasurement of local labor markets encountered in previous work. We develop a theory of job search across space that allows us to estimate a matching process with a very large number of areas. Estimates of this model show that the cost of distance is relatively high - the utility of being offered a job decays at exponential rate around 0.3 with distance (in km) to the job - so that labor markets are indeed quite 'local.' Also, workers are discouraged from applying to jobs in areas where they expect relatively strong competition from other jobseekers. The estimated model replicates fairly accurately actual commuting patterns across neighbourhoods, although it tends to underpredict the proportion of individuals who live and work in the same ward. Finally, we find that, despite the fact that labor markets are relatively 'local,' local development policies are fairly ineffective in raising the local unemployment outflow, because labor markets overlap, and the associated ripple effects in applications largely dilute the impact of local stimulus across space.

The impact of territorially concentrated FDI on local labor markets: Evidence from the Czech Republic

This paper investigates the impact of a large and territorially concentrated foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow on local labor market outcomes in the Czech Republic. A conditional difference-in-differences technique is employed for an estimation of the impact and block bootstrapping is used for computing consistent standard errors. The results indicate a positive and statistically as well as economically significant effect of a large investment project on the local unemployment outflow rate, which is driven mainly by increases in the aggregate unemployment exit hazard rates for unemployment durations smaller than nine months. Subsequent to the investment, the unemployment rate decreased by 1.7 percentage points and the employment rate increased by 3.7 percentage points in the host district. However, the impact on long-term unemployed was negligible as the exit hazard rates for durations longer than nine months remain unchanged. Moreover, a simple cost–benefit analysis suggests that investment incentives paid from a state budget would pay off only in a horizon of twelve years.