Two-sample Summary Data Research Articles

Alcohol Consumption and Cancer Risk: Two Sample Mendelian Randomization.

Although numerous observational studies have reported on the association between alcohol consumption and cancer, insufficient studies have estimated the causality. Our study evaluated the causal relationship between various types of cancer according to the frequency of drinking and the amount of alcohol consumed. The research data were obtained from the publicly available MR-Base platform. The frequency and amount of drinking were selected as the exposure, and 16 cancer types were selected as the outcome. Two-sample summary data Mendelian randomization (2SMR) was conducted to examine the causality between alcohol consumption and cancer type. Additionally, for cancers suspected of pleiotropy, outliers were removed and re-analyzed through radial MR. The MR results using the inverse variance weighted (IVW) method were different before and after removing outliers. The biggest differences were found for esophageal cancer and biliary tract cancer. For esophageal cancer, after removing outliers (rs13102973, rs540606, rs650558), the OR (95% CI) was 3.44 (1.19-9.89), which was statistically significant (p = 0.02172). Even in biliary tract cancer, after removing outliers (rs13231886, rs58905411), the OR (95% CI) was 3.86 (0.89-16.859), which was of borderline statistical significance (p = 0.07223). The strongest association was found for esophageal cancer. For other cancers, the evidence was not sufficient to draw conclusions. More research is needed to understand the causality between drinking and cancer.

Selecting Invalid Instruments to Improve Mendelian Randomization with Two-Sample Summary Data.

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a widely-used method to estimate the causal relationship between a risk factor and disease. A fundamental part of any MR analysis is to choose appropriate genetic variants as instrumental variables. Genome-wide association studies often reveal that hundreds of genetic variants may be robustly associated with a risk factor, but in some situations investigators may have greater confidence in the instrument validity of only a smaller subset of variants. Nevertheless, the use of additional instruments may be optimal from the perspective of mean squared error even if they are slightly invalid; a small bias in estimation may be a price worth paying for a larger reduction in variance. For this purpose, we consider a method for "focused" instrument selection whereby genetic variants are selected to minimise the estimated asymptotic mean squared error of causal effect estimates. In a setting of many weak and locally invalid instruments, we propose a novel strategy to construct confidence intervals for post-selection focused estimators that guards against the worst case loss in asymptotic coverage. In empirical applications to: (i) validate lipid drug targets; and (ii) investigate vitamin D effects on a wide range of outcomes, our findings suggest that the optimal selection of instruments does not involve only a small number of biologically-justified instruments, but also many potentially invalid instruments.

Causal association between body mass index and autoimmune thyroiditis: evidence from Mendelian randomization

BackgroundRecent studies have reported associations between body mass index (BMI) and various autoimmune disorders. However, it is still uncertain whether there exists a direct cause-and-effect relationship between BMI and autoimmune thyroiditis (AIT). The aim of our study is to investigate the causal association between BMI and AIT.MethodsWe conducted a two-sample summary data Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary statistics data related to BMI as exposure, and GWAS summary statistic data sets for AIT as the outcome. Robustly associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for BMI were selected as instrumental variables (IVs). We used the inverse variance weighted (IVW) method as the primary method and performed other MR methods such as MR-Egger regression, weighted median, simple mode, and weighted mode analyses for further validation. The slope of MR-Egger regression was used to correct for pleiotropy and provide estimates of causality. The p-value for the intercept in MR-Egger was utilized to detect any directional pleiotropic effects. Heterogeneity and sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of our findings.ResultsSeventy-eight SNPs were selected from GWAS on BMI as the IVs. Our MR analysis using the IVW method showed a potential causal association between BMI and AIT (OR = 3.071, 95% CI 1.324–7.118). Findings from other MR methods are non-significant, although the direction of effect is consistent. There was no evidence that the result was affected by genetic pleiotropy (MR-Egger regression intercept = 0.01, SE = 0.00025, p = 0.719). Heterogeneity and sensitivity analyses revealed no significant heterogeneity among SNPs, and no single SNP drove the observed associations.ConclusionOur findings suggest a potential causal association between BMI and AIT, which may provide a basis for further investigation into the relationship between BMI and AIT. Further studies are required as only the IVW method shows significant results, and the case sample size is small.

Investigating the transparency of reporting in two-sample summary data Mendelian randomization studies using the MR-Base platform.

Two-sample Mendelian randomization (2SMR) is an increasingly popular epidemiological method that uses genetic variants as instruments for making causal inferences. Clear reporting of methods employed in such studies is important for evaluating their underlying quality. However, the quality of methodological reporting of 2SMR studies is currently unclear. We aimed to assess the reporting quality of studies that used MR-Base, one of the most popular platforms for implementing 2SMR analysis. We created a bespoke reporting checklist to evaluate reporting quality of 2SMR studies. We then searched Web of Science Core Collection, PsycInfo, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Google Scholar citations of the MR-Base descriptor paper to identify published MR studies that used MR-Base for any component of the MR analysis. Study screening and data extraction were performed by at least two independent reviewers. In the primary analysis, 87 studies were included. Reporting quality was generally poor across studies, with a mean of 53% (SD = 14%) of items reported in each study. Many items required for evaluating the validity of key assumptions made in MR were poorly reported: only 44% of studies provided sufficient details for assessing if the genetic variant associates with the exposure ('relevance' assumption), 31% for assessing if there are any variant-outcome confounders ('independence' assumption), 89% for the assessing if the variant causes the outcome independently of the exposure ('exclusion restriction' assumption) and 32% for assumptions of falsification tests. We did not find evidence of a change in reporting quality over time or a difference in reporting quality between studies that used MR-Base and a random sample of MR studies that did not use this platform. The quality of reporting of two-sample Mendelian randomization studies in our sample was generally poor. Journals and researchers should consider using the STROBE-MR guidelines to improve reporting quality.

Profile-likelihood Bayesian model averaging for two-sample summary data Mendelian randomization in the presence of horizontal pleiotropy.

Two‐sample summary data Mendelian randomization is a popular method for assessing causality in epidemiology, by using genetic variants as instrumental variables. If genes exert pleiotropic effects on the outcome not entirely through the exposure of interest, this can lead to heterogeneous and (potentially) biased estimates of causal effect. We investigate the use of Bayesian model averaging to preferentially search the space of models with the highest posterior likelihood. We develop a Metropolis‐Hasting algorithm to perform the search using the recently developed MR‐RAPS as the basis for defining a posterior distribution that efficiently accounts for pleiotropic and weak instrument bias. We demonstrate how our general modeling approach can be extended from a standard one‐component causal model to a two‐component model, which allows a large proportion of SNPs to violate the InSIDE assumption. We use Monte Carlo simulations to illustrate our methods and compare it to several related approaches. We finish by applying our approach to investigate the causal role of cholesterol on the development age‐related macular degeneration.

Exploiting collider bias to apply two-sample summary data Mendelian randomization methods to one-sample individual level data.

Over the last decade the availability of SNP-trait associations from genome-wide association studies has led to an array of methods for performing Mendelian randomization studies using only summary statistics. A common feature of these methods, besides their intuitive simplicity, is the ability to combine data from several sources, incorporate multiple variants and account for biases due to weak instruments and pleiotropy. With the advent of large and accessible fully-genotyped cohorts such as UK Biobank, there is now increasing interest in understanding how best to apply these well developed summary data methods to individual level data, and to explore the use of more sophisticated causal methods allowing for non-linearity and effect modification. In this paper we describe a general procedure for optimally applying any two sample summary data method using one sample data. Our procedure first performs a meta-analysis of summary data estimates that are intentionally contaminated by collider bias between the genetic instruments and unmeasured confounders, due to conditioning on the observed exposure. These estimates are then used to correct the standard observational association between an exposure and outcome. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate the method's performance against naive applications of two sample summary data MR. We apply the approach to the UK Biobank cohort to investigate the causal role of sleep disturbance on HbA1c levels, an important determinant of diabetes. Our approach can be viewed as a generalization of Dudbridge et al. (Nat. Comm. 10: 1561), who developed a technique to adjust for index event bias when uncovering genetic predictors of disease progression based on case-only data. Our work serves to clarify that in any one sample MR analysis, it can be advantageous to estimate causal relationships by artificially inducing and then correcting for collider bias.

Testing and correcting for weak and pleiotropic instruments in two-sample multivariable Mendelian randomization.

Multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) is a form of instrumental variable analysis which estimates the direct effect of multiple exposures on an outcome using genetic variants as instruments. Mendelian randomization and MVMR are frequently conducted using two‐sample summary data where the association of the genetic variants with the exposures and outcome are obtained from separate samples. If the genetic variants are only weakly associated with the exposures either individually or conditionally, given the other exposures in the model, then standard inverse variance weighting will yield biased estimates for the effect of each exposure. Here, we develop a two‐sample conditional F‐statistic to test whether the genetic variants strongly predict each exposure conditional on the other exposures included in a MVMR model. We show formally that this test is equivalent to the individual level data conditional F‐statistic, indicating that conventional rule‐of‐thumb critical values of F> 10, can be used to test for weak instruments. We then demonstrate how reliable estimates of the causal effect of each exposure on the outcome can be obtained in the presence of weak instruments and pleiotropy, by repurposing a commonly used heterogeneity Q‐statistic as an estimating equation. Furthermore, the minimized value of this Q‐statistic yields an exact test for heterogeneity due to pleiotropy. We illustrate our methods with an application to estimate the causal effect of blood lipid fractions on age‐related macular degeneration.

Using genetic information to inform policy on cannabis

Using genetic information to inform policy on cannabis

Corrigendum to: An examination of multivariable Mendelian randomization in the single-sample and two-sample summary data settings.

Corrigendum to: An examination of multivariable Mendelian randomization in the single-sample and two-sample summary data settings.

Abstract 2416: Vitamin D concentration and the risks of Barrett’s esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma: A Mendelian randomization study

Abstract Background Epidemiological studies on circulating concentrations of 25 hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) and risks of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) have shown conflicting results. Here we conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) study to determine the associations between circulating concentrations of 25 hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) and risks of EAC and its precursor, Barrett’s esophagus (BE). Methods We conducted a MR study using a two-sample (summary data) approach. Six single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (rs3755967, rs10741657, rs12785878, rs10745742, rs8018720 and rs17216707) associated with circulating 25(OH)D concentrations were used as instrumental variables. Data from 6,167 BE patients, 4,112 EAC patients and 17,159 control participants were from studies participating in the Barrett’s and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium (BEACON), as well as studies from Bonn, Germany, and Cambridge and Oxford, United Kingdom. Analyses were performed separately for BE and EAC. Results Overall, we found no evidence for an association between genetically estimated 25(OH)D concentrations and the risk of BE or EAC. The odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation unit increase in genetically estimated 25(OH)D concentrations for BE risk estimated by combining the individual SNP association using inverse variance weighting was 1.21 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.77-1.92; P = 0.41). The OR for EAC risk estimated by combining the individual SNP association using inverse variance weighting was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.39-1.19; P = 0.18). Conclusions This Mendelian randomization study found that genetically estimated low 25(OH)D concentrations were not associated with increased risks of BE or EAC. Citation Format: Jing Dong, Aaron Thrift. Vitamin D concentration and the risks of Barrett’s esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma: A Mendelian randomization study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2019; 2019 Mar 29-Apr 3; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 2416.

Associations of genetically determined iron status across the phenome: A mendelian randomization study.

BackgroundIron is integral to many physiological processes, and variations in its levels, even within the normal range, can have implications for health. The objective of this study was to explore the broad clinical effects of varying iron status.Methods and findingsGenome-wide association study (GWAS) summary data obtained from 48,972 European individuals (55% female) across 19 cohorts in the Genetics of Iron Status Consortium were used to identify 3 genetic variants (rs1800562 and rs1799945 in the hemochromatosis gene [HFE] and rs855791 in the transmembrane protease serine 6 gene [TMPRSS6]) that associate with increased serum iron, ferritin, and transferrin saturation and decreased transferrin levels, thus serving as instruments for systemic iron status. Phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) of these instruments was performed on 424,439 European individuals (54% female) in the UK Biobank who were aged 40–69 years when recruited from 2006 to 2010, with their genetic data linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) from April, 1995 to March, 2016. Two-sample summary data mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed to investigate the effect of varying iron status on outcomes across the human phenome. MR–PheWAS analysis for the 3 iron status genetic instruments was performed separately and then pooled by meta-analysis. Correction was made for testing of multiple correlated phenotypes using a 5% false discovery rate (FDR) threshold. Heterogeneity between MR estimates for different instruments was used to indicate possible bias due to effects of the genetic variants through pathways unrelated to iron status. There were 904 distinct phenotypes included in the MR–PheWAS analyses. After correcting for multiple testing, the 3 genetic instruments for systemic iron status demonstrated consistent evidence of a causal effect of higher iron status on decreasing risk of traits related to anemia (iron deficiency anemia: odds ratio [OR] scaled to a standard deviation [SD] increase in genetically determined serum iron levels 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64–0.81, P = 4 × 10−8) and hypercholesterolemia (hypercholesterolemia: OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.83–0.93, P = 2 × 10−5) and increasing risk of traits related to infection of the skin and related structures (cellulitis and abscess of the leg: OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.10–1.42, P = 6 × 10−4). The main limitations of this study relate to possible bias from pleiotropic effects of the considered genetic variants and misclassification of diagnoses in the HES data. Furthermore, this work only investigated participants with European ancestry, and the findings may not be applicable to other ethnic groups.ConclusionsOur findings offer novel, to our knowledge, insight into previously unreported effects of iron status, highlighting a potential protective effect of higher iron status on hypercholesterolemia and a detrimental role on risk of skin and skin structure infections. Given the modifiable and variable nature of iron status, these findings warrant further investigation.

An examination of multivariable Mendelian randomization in the single-sample and two-sample summary data settings.

BackgroundMendelian randomization (MR) is a powerful tool in epidemiology that can be used to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome in the presence of unobserved confounding, by utilizing genetic variants that are instrumental variables (IVs) for the exposure. This has been extended to multivariable MR (MVMR) to estimate the effect of two or more exposures on an outcome.Methods and resultsWe use simulations and theory to clarify the interpretation of estimated effects in a MVMR analysis under a range of underlying scenarios, where a secondary exposure acts variously as a confounder, a mediator, a pleiotropic pathway and a collider. We then describe how instrument strength and validity can be assessed for an MVMR analysis in the single-sample setting, and develop tests to assess these assumptions in the popular two-sample summary data setting. We illustrate our methods using data from UK Biobank to estimate the effect of education and cognitive ability on body mass index.ConclusionMVMR analysis consistently estimates the direct causal effect of an exposure, or exposures, of interest and provides a powerful tool for determining causal effects in a wide range of scenarios with either individual- or summary-level data.

Improving the visualization, interpretation and analysis of two-sample summary data Mendelian randomization via the Radial plot and Radial regression.

Background data furnishing a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study are often visualized with the aid of a scatter plot, in which single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-outcome associations are plotted against the SNP-exposure associations to provide an immediate picture of the causal-effect estimate for each individual variant. It is also convenient to overlay the standard inverse-variance weighted (IVW) estimate of causal effect as a fitted slope, to see whether an individual SNP provides evidence that supports, or conflicts with, the overall consensus. Unfortunately, the traditional scatter plot is not the most appropriate means to achieve this aim whenever SNP-outcome associations are estimated with varying degrees of precision and this is reflected in the analysis. Methods We propose instead to use a small modification of the scatter plot-the Galbraith Radial plot-for the presentation of data and results from an MR study, which enjoys many advantages over the original method. On a practical level, it removes the need to recode the genetic data and enables a more straightforward detection of outliers and influential data points. Its use extends beyond the purely aesthetic, however, to suggest a more general modelling framework to operate within when conducting an MR study, including a new form of MR-Egger regression. Results We illustrate the methods using data from a two-sample MR study to probe the causal effect of systolic blood pressure on coronary heart disease risk, allowing for the possible effects of pleiotropy. The Radial plot is shown to aid the detection of a single outlying variant that is responsible for large differences between IVW and MR-Egger regression estimates. Several additional plots are also proposed for informative data visualization. Conclusions The Radial plot should be considered in place of the scatter plot for visualizing, analysing and interpreting data from a two-sample summary data MR study. Software is provided to help facilitate its use.

Improving the visualization, interpretation and analysis of two-sample summary data Mendelian randomization via the Radial plot and Radial regression.

BackgroundSummary data furnishing a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study are often visualized with the aid of a scatter plot, in which single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)–outcome associations are plotted against the SNP–exposure associations to provide an immediate picture of the causal-effect estimate for each individual variant. It is also convenient to overlay the standard inverse-variance weighted (IVW) estimate of causal effect as a fitted slope, to see whether an individual SNP provides evidence that supports, or conflicts with, the overall consensus. Unfortunately, the traditional scatter plot is not the most appropriate means to achieve this aim whenever SNP–outcome associations are estimated with varying degrees of precision and this is reflected in the analysis.MethodsWe propose instead to use a small modification of the scatter plot—the Galbraith Radial plot—for the presentation of data and results from an MR study, which enjoys many advantages over the original method. On a practical level, it removes the need to recode the genetic data and enables a more straightforward detection of outliers and influential data points. Its use extends beyond the purely aesthetic, however, to suggest a more general modelling framework to operate within when conducting an MR study, including a new form of MR-Egger regression.ResultsWe illustrate the methods using data from a two-sample MR study to probe the causal effect of systolic blood pressure on coronary heart disease risk, allowing for the possible effects of pleiotropy. The Radial plot is shown to aid the detection of a single outlying variant that is responsible for large differences between IVW and MR-Egger regression estimates. Several additional plots are also proposed for informative data visualization.ConclusionsThe Radial plot should be considered in place of the scatter plot for visualizing, analysing and interpreting data from a two-sample summary data MR study. Software is provided to help facilitate its use.

Robust inference in summary data Mendelian randomization via the zero modal pleiotropy assumption.

BackgroundMendelian randomization (MR) is being increasingly used to strengthen causal inference in observational studies. Availability of summary data of genetic associations for a variety of phenotypes from large genome-wide association studies (GWAS) allows straightforward application of MR using summary data methods, typically in a two-sample design. In addition to the conventional inverse variance weighting (IVW) method, recently developed summary data MR methods, such as the MR-Egger and weighted median approaches, allow a relaxation of the instrumental variable assumptions.MethodsHere, a new method - the mode-based estimate (MBE) - is proposed to obtain a single causal effect estimate from multiple genetic instruments. The MBE is consistent when the largest number of similar (identical in infinite samples) individual-instrument causal effect estimates comes from valid instruments, even if the majority of instruments are invalid. We evaluate the performance of the method in simulations designed to mimic the two-sample summary data setting, and demonstrate its use by investigating the causal effect of plasma lipid fractions and urate levels on coronary heart disease risk.ResultsThe MBE presented less bias and lower type-I error rates than other methods under the null in many situations. Its power to detect a causal effect was smaller compared with the IVW and weighted median methods, but was larger than that of MR-Egger regression, with sample size requirements typically smaller than those available from GWAS consortia.ConclusionsThe MBE relaxes the instrumental variable assumptions, and should be used in combination with other approaches in sensitivity analyses.

A framework for the investigation of pleiotropy in two-sample summary data Mendelian randomization.

Mendelian randomization (MR) uses genetic data to probe questions of causality in epidemiological research, by invoking the Instrumental Variable (IV) assumptions. In recent years, it has become commonplace to attempt MR analyses by synthesising summary data estimates of genetic association gleaned from large and independent study populations. This is referred to as two‐sample summary data MR. Unfortunately, due to the sheer number of variants that can be easily included into summary data MR analyses, it is increasingly likely that some do not meet the IV assumptions due to pleiotropy. There is a pressing need to develop methods that can both detect and correct for pleiotropy, in order to preserve the validity of the MR approach in this context. In this paper, we aim to clarify how established methods of meta‐regression and random effects modelling from mainstream meta‐analysis are being adapted to perform this task. Specifically, we focus on two contrastin g approaches: the Inverse Variance Weighted (IVW) method which assumes in its simplest form that all genetic variants are valid IVs, and the method of MR‐Egger regression that allows all variants to violate the IV assumptions, albeit in a specific way. We investigate the ability of two popular random effects models to provide robustness to pleiotropy under the IVW approach, and propose statistics to quantify the relative goodness‐of‐fit of the IVW approach over MR‐Egger regression. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by JohnWiley & Sons Ltd

Assessing the suitability of summary data for two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses using MR-Egger regression: the role of the I2 statistic.

Background: MR-Egger regression has recently been proposed as a method for Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses incorporating summary data estimates of causal effect from multiple individual variants, which is robust to invalid instruments. It can be used to test for directional pleiotropy and provides an estimate of the causal effect adjusted for its presence. MR-Egger regression provides a useful additional sensitivity analysis to the standard inverse variance weighted (IVW) approach that assumes all variants are valid instruments. Both methods use weights that consider the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-exposure associations to be known, rather than estimated. We call this the `NO Measurement Error' (NOME) assumption. Causal effect estimates from the IVW approach exhibit weak instrument bias whenever the genetic variants utilized violate the NOME assumption, which can be reliably measured using the F-statistic. The effect of NOME violation on MR-Egger regression has yet to be studied. Methods: An adaptation of the statistic from the field of meta-analysis is proposed to quantify the strength of NOME violation for MR-Egger. It lies between 0 and 1, and indicates the expected relative bias (or dilution) of the MR-Egger causal estimate in the two-sample MR context. We call it . The method of simulation extrapolation is also explored to counteract the dilution. Their joint utility is evaluated using simulated data and applied to a real MR example. Results: In simulated two-sample MR analyses we show that, when a causal effect exists, the MR-Egger estimate of causal effect is biased towards the null when NOME is violated, and the stronger the violation (as indicated by lower values of ), the stronger the dilution. When additionally all genetic variants are valid instruments, the type I error rate of the MR-Egger test for pleiotropy is inflated and the causal effect underestimated. Simulation extrapolation is shown to substantially mitigate these adverse effects. We demonstrate our proposed approach for a two-sample summary data MR analysis to estimate the causal effect of low-density lipoprotein on heart disease risk. A high value of close to 1 indicates that dilution does not materially affect the standard MR-Egger analyses for these data. Conclusions: Care must be taken to assess the NOME assumption via the statistic before implementing standard MR-Egger regression in the two-sample summary data context. If is sufficiently low (less than 90%), inferences from the method should be interpreted with caution and adjustment methods considered.