True Date Research Articles

Assessing the Development of Shorebird Eggs Using the Flotation Method: Species-Specific and Generalized Regression Models

Abstract Abstract We modeled the relationship between egg flotation and age of a developing embryo for 24 species of shorebirds. For 21 species, we used regression analyses to estimate hatching date by modeling egg angle and float height, measured as continuous variables, against embryo age. For eggs early in incubation, we used linear regression analyses to predict hatching date from logit-transformed egg angles only. For late incubation, we used multiple regression analyses to predict hatching date from both egg angles and float heights. In 30 of 36 cases, these equations estimated hatching date to within four days of the true hatching date for each species. After controlling for incubation duration and egg size, flotation patterns did not differ between shorebirds grouped by mass (≥100 g or <100 g) or taxonomy (Scolopacidae versus Charadriidae). Flotation progressed more rapidly in species in which both adults incubate the clutch versus species in which only one adult incubates the clutch, although this did not affect prediction accuracy. We also pooled all continuous data and created a generalized regression equation that can be applied to all shorebird species. For the remaining three species, we estimated hatching date using five float categories. Estimates of hatching date using categorical data were, overall, less accurate than those generated using continuous data (by 3%–5% of a given incubation period). Our equations were less accurate than results reported in similar studies; data collected by multiple observers and at multiple sites, as well as low sample sizes for some species, likely increased measurement error. To minimize flotation method prediction error, we recommend sampling in early incubation, collecting both egg angle and float height data in late incubation, and developing site- and species-specific regression models where possible.

ASSESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOREBIRD EGGS USING THE FLOTATION METHOD: SPECIES-SPECIFIC AND GENERALIZED REGRESSION MODELS

Abstract ABSTRACT We modeled the relationship between egg flotation and age of a developing embryo for 24 species of shorebirds. For 21 species, we used regression analyses to estimate hatching date by modeling egg angle and float height, measured as continuous variables, against embryo age. For eggs early in incubation, we used linear regression analyses to predict hatching date from logit-transformed egg angles only. For late incubation, we used multiple regression analyses to predict hatching date from both egg angles and float heights. In 30 of 36 cases, these equations estimated hatching date to within four days of the true hatching date for each species. After controlling for incubation duration and egg size, flotation patterns did not differ between shorebirds grouped by mass (≥100 g or <100 g) or taxonomy (Scolopacidae versus Charadriidae). Flotation progressed more rapidly in species in which both adults incubate the clutch versus species in which only one adult incubates the clutch, although thi...

A new analysis of intermittence, scale invariance and characteristic scales applied to the behavior of financial indices near a crash

This work is devoted to the study of the relation between intermittence and scale invariance, and applications to the behavior of financial indices near a crash. We developed a numerical analysis that predicts the critical date of a financial index, and we apply the model to the analysis of several financial indices. We were able to obtain optimum values for the critical date, corresponding to the most probable date of the crash. We only used data from before the true crash date in order to obtain the predicted critical date. The good numerical results validate the model.

Randomized phase 3 trial of irinotecan (CPT-11) + 5FU/folinic acid (FA) vs CDDP + 5FU in 1st-line advanced gastric cancer patients

4003 Background: An open-label, multicenter study of 1st-line advanced gastric cancer patients (pts) was designed to compare the effects of CPT-11 + 5FU/FA with CDDP + 5FU. Primary efficacy variable: time to progression (TTP); secondary endpoints: time to treatment failure (TTF), overall survival (OS), and safety. Methods: Male and female pts aged 28–77 years were randomized to receive: CPT-11 80 mg/m2 iv as 30-min infusion, followed by FA 500 mg/m2 iv over 2 h, followed by 5FU 2000 mg/m2 iv over 22 h weekly for 6 wk (IF); or CDDP 100 mg/m2 iv as 1–3 h infusion on Day 1, followed by 5FU 1000 mg/m2/d continuous infusion over 5 d every 4 wk (CF). Treatment was administered up to progression, unacceptable toxicities, or consent withdrawal. Results: Of 337 randomized pts, 333 (170 with IF; 163 with CF) were treated. In the full-analysis population, a trend toward superiority was noted for TTP with IF vs CF (hazard ratio [HR] 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.97–1.57; P = .088), corresponding to a 19% progression risk reduction. Median TTP for IF and CF was 5.0 and 4.2 months, respectively. Interval-censored analysis, a method taking into account that the true date of progression is unknown and that the progression occurs between 2 tumor assessments, showed an HR of 1.27 (P = .05). Median TTF was 4.0 (range 3.60–4.80) and 3.4 (2.53–3.78) months with IF and CF, respectively (HR 1.43; 95% CI 1.14–1.78; P = .018). IF did not demonstrate superiority vs CF (HR 1.08; 95% CI 0.86–1.35) for OS. 67 pts (40%) with IF had grade 3/4 drug-related adverse events (AEs) vs 73 (44%) with CF. The main imbalances on grade 3/4 drug-related AEs against IF were diarrhea (21.6% vs 7.2%), and against CF were neutropenia (52% vs 25%), febrile neutropenia or neutropenic infection (10.2% vs 4.8%), stomatitis (16.9% vs 2.4%), and nausea (9.0% vs 4.8%). More pts withdrew from the study due to drug-related AEs with CF than with IF (21.5% vs 10.0%; P = .004), including 5 toxic deaths with CF vs 1 with IF. Conclusions: In advanced gastric cancer patients, IF showed a trend to TTP superiority, compared with CF, as well as a better safety profile. Thus, CPT-11 + 5FU/FA is an alternative 1st-line treatment option without CDDP for these patients. Author Disclosure Employment or Leadership Consultant or Advisory Role Stock Ownership Honoraria Research Funding Expert Testimony Other Remuneration sanofi-aventis

14C Dating of the Settlement of Iceland

The dating of the settlement of Iceland has been debated for many years. According to written sources (sagas) from the early 12th century, the first Norwegian settlers arrived in Iceland in AD 874. However, some 14C dates from the earliest archaeological sites in Iceland, invariably from samples of birch and other indigenous wood species, have yielded surprisingly old ages, older by 100–150 yr than the historical date, suggesting that the settlement took place in the 7th or 8th century. In this paper, we report 16 new 14C dates of pairs of barley grain and wood samples from an excavation in Reykjavík in 2001. The new results show that the wood samples tend to be older than the grain samples by up to about 100 yr. We argue that the barley grains give the true date (AD 890), whereas the wood dates are too old. The grain dates are in close agreement with the settlement year quoted in the written sources. In particular, our new data eliminate the need of any of the ad hoc theories introduced up to now to explain the suspiciously high 14C ages of wood samples from the settlement of Iceland, namely, 1) the island effect, 2) the volcanic or geothermal effect, or 3) that settlement actually took place significantly before the time recorded in the sagas.

Idades Th-U-PbTde monazita e geotermobarometria de rochas metapelíticas de alto grau do sistema orogênico Itabuna-Salvador-Curaçá, BA, Brasil: um estudo em microssonda eletrônica

Electron microprobe Th-U-PbT dating of monazite was performed on aluminous gneiss samples from the northern Jacurici and southern Ilhéus areas of the Itabuna-Salvador-Curaçá Orogenic System. Studied samples are spinel-sillimanite-cordierite-garnet gneiss and corundum-spinel-sillimanite-garnet gneiss that equilibrated during a high temperature metamorphism at T-P conditions of about 835°C/6.9 kbar and 890°C/7.4 kbar, respectively. Microprobe ages of monazite in equilibrium with these mineral associations are interpreted as true crystallization ages and date granulite facies metamorphism. Both samples gave ages of about 2.07 and 2.08 (± 0.02) Ga, in agreement with the known geochronological pattern in this system. The Ilhéus sample contains a younger, contrasting monazite generation (e.g., with distinct REE patterns and Th/Gd ratios), dated at ca. 1.97 (± 0.04) Ga. Based on the occurrence of the corundum-sillimanite-quartz association in the sample and information from the literature, we suggest that this age may be related to a regional decompression event and/or a thermal overprint due to late intrusive magmatism (1.9 - 2.0 Ga) in the orogenic system.

Rembrandt, de verwarde bruidegom

AbstractThe signature on Rembrandt's little sketch of Saskia in silver point on parchment, bearing the date '8 juni 1633', has long been a source of puzzlement. For how can Rembrandt's remarks - that Saskia was his wife and that on June 8 of that year the couple had been married for three days - be reconciled with the true date of their wedding, June 22 1634, recorded in the register of marriages of Sint-Annaparochie in Friesland? There is however an explanation for the mystifying caption. First, Rembrandt had written that Saskia was 21 years old. Her baptism was registered on August 2 1612, so that she was still only 20 in June 1633. Furthermore, it was compulsory by law to give notice of a marriage, after registration at the town hall and prior to the actual ceremony, by means of a public announcement in the next three weeks. The banns were usually called in church on three successive Sundays. Rembrandt's and Saskia's first bann was called in the church at Sint-Annaparochie on Sunday June 8 1634 - according to the Julian calendar still used in Friesland at that time, which was ten days behind the Gregorian calendar adhered to in Holland. On June 22, the Sunday of the third announcement, their marriage was solemnized. In the seventeenth century, however, many people regarded the day on which the banns were first called as the actual wedding-day, for the betrothed couple could no longer change their minds. Rembrandt and Saskia, then, regarded their wedding-day as June 8 1634 - according to the Frisian calendar. The caption to the sketch thus correctly reads: This is my 21-year-old wife, drawn three days after our wedding-day, and that was on June 8.

Measuring Rivalry Termination, 1816-1992

The predominant operationalizations of enduring rivalries use a period of time without a militarized dispute to identify the termination of such rivalries. The author argues that this misses the true termination date of most rivalries because it does not identify when the underlying disputed issues in the rivalry are resolved. The author suggests an operationalization that identifies rivalry termination dates based on a combination of the absence of militarized disputes and the use of public documents and statements that show issue settlement. Such an operationalization can result in significant changes in rivalry termination dates. The 1996 version of the Correlates of War militarized dispute data set is used to apply this new measure to Goertz and Diehl's (1995) set of enduring rivalries to produce new termination dates and show that tests of a model of rivalry termination produce different results when applied to this new data set.

A Randomized, Controlled Evaluation of Two Commercially Available Human Breast Milk Fortifiers in Healthy Preterm Neonates

Objective To evaluate the added nutritional value of the two commercially available human breast milk fortifiers: Similac Natural Care (NC) and Enfamil Powder (EP). Design A randomized controlled evaluation in healthy preterm neonates. Setting Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, Royal University Hospital, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, and Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, Jewish General Hospital, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Subjects Healthy preterm infants admitted to and cared for in the aforementioned neonatal intensive care units. Interventions Healthy preterm neonates who were receiving expressed breast milk from their own mothers were supplemented with human milk fortifiers (NC and EP) per manufacturer's recommendations. Main outcome measures Gestational age and birth weight, gender, and race. At entry to and exit from the study, serum concentrations of albumin, protein, calcium, phosphorus, and alkaline phosphatase. The age at which the supplements were added and the number of days the infant remained in the hospital. Daily weight gain, head circumference, length, and height were also measured. Statistical analyses performed Student's t test was used to test the differences between the groups and within the groups at entry to and exit from the study. Fisher's exact test was used to determine differences in race, size, and gestational age in each group. When necessary, a χ 2 test was used to analyze the preponderance of either sex in each group. A Wilcoxon rank test was applied to the true exit date to determine whether the bias was comparable in each group. Results The mean (± standard error) gestational age and birth weight were similar in both groups: 30±0.3 weeks and 1,314±40 g, respectively, for NC vs 29.6±10.35 weeks and 1,262±45 g, respectively, for EP. At entry to the study, values for the NC group (N=29) were albumin 31±1.2 g/L, serum protein 48±1.4 g/L, calcium 2.4±0.03 mmol/L, phosphorus 1.85±0.08 mmol/L, alkaline phosphatase 347±27 IU/L. The values for the EP group (N=30) were albumin 32±0.9 g/L, serum protein 49±1.4 g/L, calcium 2.4±0.4 mmol/L, phosphorus 1.9±0.1 mmol/L, alkaline phosphatase 420±34 IU/L. At the study exit, the values for the NC group were albumin 30±0.7 g/L, serum protein 45±0.9 g/L, calcium 2.4±0.3 mmol/L, phosphorus 1.96±0.07 mmol/L, and alkaline phosphatase 371±23 IU/L. The values for the EP group were albumin 32±1.0 g/L, serum protein 46.0±1.4 g/L, calcium 2.5±0.03 mmol/L, serum phosphorus 2.2±0.1, and alkaline phosphatase 367±27 IU/L. No significant differences were observed between groups at entry to and exit from the study. However, in the EP group the alkaline phosphatase decreased significantly ( P=.02) from entry to exit and calcium increased significantly during the same period compared with the NC group ( P=.003). The mean daily weight gain was 33±0.7 g for the NC group and 31±1 g for the EP group. The weekly gain in head circumference and body length were also similar in both groups: approximately 1 cm/week. Both groups tolerated the fortifiers well. Applications/conclusions These findings suggest that both products provide the additional nutritional support necessary for optimal overall postnatal growth in healthy preterm infants. The differences in calcium and alkaline phosphatase may be due to the differences in vitamin D content in fortifiers 88 IU/100 mL in mixed NC vs 270 IU/100 mL in mixed EP. This observation calls for careful monitoring of calcium and alkaline phosphatase values and possible adjustments of vitamin D intake when fortifiers are used for extended periods. J Am Diet Assoc. 1996;96:1145-1149.

FIRE HISTORY OF A PONDEROSA PINE/DOUGLAS FIR FOREST IN THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE

Changes in fire regime over time were quantified for a 600 ha area of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum)/Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests in Fourmile Canyon, Boulder County, Colorado. Fire dates were determined using four methods: fire scar wedges, increment core samples of fire scars, post-fire cohort age, and growth rates of remnant trees. Fire scar wedges were more reliable than increment cores, although increment cores did yield fire dates within 1–3 years of the true fire date. Age structure, in some stands initiated by fire, yielded approximate (within 5–10 years) fire dates. Of twelve remnant trees measured to quantify changes in growth patterns following fires, eight were released 2–12 years after the fire, while the remaining four showed no release. A mean fire interval of 15.2 years characterized the entire study area. Mean fire intervals were 31.8 years for the pre-settlement era (pre-1859), 8.1 years for the settlement era (1859–1920), and 28.0 years for the suppressio...

The Magic of "Old Christmas"

The Magic of "Old Christmas"

The True Date and Authorship of Henry, Viscount Falkland’s History of the Life, Reign and Death of King Edward II

The True Date and Authorship of Henry, Viscount Falkland’s <i>History of the Life, Reign and Death of King Edward II</i>

A new date for the Taupo eruption, New Zealand

The Taupo eruption was a complex volcanic event that represents the most recent activity at the Taupo Volcanic Centre1 in the North Island of New Zealand. The average2 of many radiocarbon ages dates the eruption at ∼AD 130. The records of ancient China and Rome refer to events in ∼AD 186 of the type which follow a major volcanic eruption, and we present here reasons for considering that these events were due to the Taupo eruption, and that the true date of the eruption is ∼AD 186.

Dartmoor reaves: a nineteenth-century fiasco

In April 1972 Mr Fleming, Lecturer in Prehistory and Archaeology at the University of Sheffield, and his colleague Dr John Collis, were able to demonstrate the prehistoric date of a system of reaves, or low walls, on south-west Dartmoor. Further research showed that the true date and function of the reaves had been suggested in the early nineteenth century, but that they gradually come to be ignored by prehistorians of more recent times; Mr Fleming, Director of the Dartmoor Reave Project, here documents this curious case of lost knowledge.

Computer simulation of the effects of errors in birth registration on age-dependent anthropometric methods

In developing countries birth registration is likely to be delayed, leading to official ages which systematically underestimate the true ages. A computer simulation showed that such official ages underestimate the incidence of malnutrition in a community and lead to misclassification of the nutritional status of many subjects. These errors are more marked below than above 2 years of age. Estimation of the mean delay and its addition to the official ages led to improvement of the results. Above 2 years such estimated ages gave acceptable results; below that age the results were still not acceptable. It is suggested that one method of improving age estimates in large scale anthropometric studies in areas where birth records exist might be to carry out a preliminary survey to estimate the"mean delay in registration. This mean dealy would be added to all official ages and results above 2 years would be accepted. Below 2 years the estimated birth date would be used as a starting point from which the true birth date can be obtained by careful questioning of the parents. Anthropometric results referred to the ages so obtained would give better results than those of uncorrected ages or age-independent anthropometric methods.

Radiometric Age Determination of Silurian Glauconite: DISCUSSION

A calculated 426-m.y. K-Ar date on glauconite has been reported for the basal section of Niagaran (Silurian) rocks from Hamilton, Ontario. This date was derived by assuming a radiogenic 40Ar loss for the measured date of 384 ± 11 m.y. The 426-m.y. calculated date is given without error limits and, further, the assumed 10-percent loss is open to question. Regardless of the uncertainties about the true radiometric date no one should attempt rigorous geochronologic, time-scale-applicable interpretation based on one sample.

The First Published Representation of Tasmania as an Island

Two issues of a wall-map by A. Arrowsmith have recently come under examination in the Map Room of the Royal Geogr phical Society. Both are dated i April 1790, and entitled of the World / on Mercator's Projec? tion, Exhibiting all the New Discoveries to the present Time: / with the Tracks of the most distinguished Navigators since the Year 1700, carefully collected / from the best Charts, Maps, Voyages, c 1742 appears at the corresponding place on the western. The western and southern coasts of Australia are shown according to the Dutch navigators, and the eastern accord? ing to the preliminary interpretation of Cook's work. Van Diemen's Land is shown as a conjectural continuation of the Australian mainland. The other copy, presumably of the later issue, was formerly mounted on rollers but has recently been cut for convenience in filing. It resembles the earlier in nearly all respects, but it shows Van Diemen's Land as an island. This is probably the first published representation of the complete separation of Tasmania from Australia. The true date of publication of this issue is there? fore of decided interest. For satisfactory discussion of the point, reference will have to be made to a folio volume of maps and charts now in the Map Room of the Royal Geographical Society (the Chapman Collection). The contents were described in the Geographical Journal, 108 (1946) 112, as a collection made by a Captain Benjamin Chapman in Ireland before 1808. The MS. title page, not mentioned in the note in the Geographical Journal, reads: General Atlas / being a / Collection of / Maps and Charts / Selected and compiled / by Mr. Andrew Gray. Although later generations gave Bass the entire credit for the discovery of Bass strait, it is now becoming clear that Bass's contemporaries knew that Hunter believed firmly in its existence long before he sent Flinders and Bass to prove it by circumnavigating Van Diemen's Land in the Norfolk. On 1 October 1798, before this proof was forthcoming, Arrowsmith published a Reduced Chart of the Pacific Ocean from one published in Nine Sheets (No. 48 of Chapman Coll.), on which the coast of Van Diemen's Land is from Tasman and Furneaux, that of New South Wales from the revised plotting of Cook's work, that of the south-western corner of Australia from Vancouver; and a clear space is left betweeen Van Diemen's Land and the mainland in the latitude of the strait. In his * Observations on the coasts of New South Wales, intended to accompany the charts of the late discoveries in those countries'

Research Items

Early Chinese Lacquer Toilet-Boxes Two pieces of outstanding importance from the last of the Eumorfopoulos collection have been presented to the British Museum; one, a Chinese lacquer toilet-box, purchased by the National Art-Collections Fund, and the second, the blue splashed T'ang pottery horse which was the late owner's special favourite, presented by Mrs. G. Eumorfopoulos in memory of her husband (Brit. Mus. Quarterly, 14, 3; 1940). In a description of the two pieces by B. Gray, the lacquer box is stated to be much the most important piece of Early Chinese lacquer to have left the East. It is remarkable for its fine state of preservation and for unique features of its decoration. Judging from finds made by Japanese archæologists in Korea, painted lacquer was the most usual material for articles of luxury in the Han period, after Chinese taste had changed about 600 B.C. from an interest in plastic form to a preference for enrichment of surfaces. In the ‘Hwai-style period” inlay was extensively used to enrich the bronzes; but in the Han period a freer technique of painting came into fashion. Though also tomb furnishings, the lacquer boxes, tables and utensils must certainly have been used by the owners before death. In the tombs of Lo-lang of South Korea, of the considerable number of lacquer objects found, the most important are the toilet-boxes. These are of three main shapes, small oblong, high rectangular with coffered lids, and circular boxes with domed lids. Although several are inscribed as having been made in Szechwan, until lately no piece was known to have been found on Chinese soil. The present example, however, is said to have been found in a tomb at Haichow in the northern part of Kiangsu near the old bed of the Yellow River. It resembles generally the round toilet-boxes found at Lo-lang, but has important differences, and it differs in the style of the painted decoration. In consequence it has been assigned to the third century B.C. This is before the period to which the Korean boxes all appear to belong in the first century A.D. Probably the true date is somewhere between the two.

A study of fecundity in the domestic fowl: the behaviour of persistency in individual hens

1. Individual birds have a characteristic date for the termination of the egg laying cycle.2. The date of cessation of production at the end of the pullet year is not a reliable indication of the bird's potentiality in this respect.3. The longer the birds are retained the greater is the chance of distinguishing the true date.4. Individual dates for the termination of the cycle occur at so many points throughout the total range (from July to December) that this must either indicate a multiple factor situation or that the genes involved show a considerable range of expression.

The Roman Evacuation of Britain

Some apology may seem to be required for re-opening a question that has already been discussed by so many first-rate scholars. If so, it must be found in the hope that an examination of the points I propose to raise may possibly throw fresh light on the problem as a whole, and so bring about a greater measure of agreement as to the true date of the so-called evacuation of Britain.To begin with, I should like to make it clear that, in my opinion, there must have been in fact something like a ‘departure of the Romans.’ It is difficult to see what justification there is for Haverfield's view that this departure did not mean any great departure of persons, Roman or other, from the island. If that had been so, we should have to suppose that all the Romans who were left, whether private individuals or military and government officials, were absorbed into the new régime, out of which there gradually developed a state that became England. Everything, however, indicates that there was a distinct break between Britain as a Roman province and Britain as it was under its Saxon rulers. It is almost a contradictio in adiecto to say : ‘No one went. Some persons failed to come.’ Why did they fail to come ? Obviously because nothing remained for them to go to. Thus the only point to be determined is exactly when this severance of the far northern province from the official western government took place. Was it in 407 or 410, as has usually been supposed, or was it at some later time ?