Tropical Climate Modes Research Articles

Seasonality of Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Frequency over the Southern Hemisphere and Tropical Climate Modes

In this study, the author examined the tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the southern hemisphere (SH) and its relationship with tropical climate modes, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), during the austral summer (December–January–February; DJF) and fall (March–April–May; MAM). The correlation analysis between the TC activity and the global sea surface temperature (SST) suggested that an increased TC activity over the southwestern and southeastern Indian Ocean (SWIO and SEIO) was associated with a La Niña-like SST pattern, while an increased TC activity over the southwestern Pacific (SWP) was associated with an El Niño-like SST pattern. The atmospheric conditions accompanying the TC increase over the SWIO/SEIO indicated that a La Niña induces tropospheric cooling over the tropics with cyclonic circulation anomalies over the TC genesis region. Both the SST anomalies and the cyclonic circulation anomalies were significantly correlated with TC genesis parameters, suggesting that they contributed to TC genesis. To investigate the SST precursors, a lead-lag correlation analysis was performed. For the TC variations over the SEIO, an SST pattern that resembled the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) was statistically significant at a two-season lead. However, such a TC-ENSO relationship is seasonally dependent, with different patterns during DJF and MAM. These results suggest that the Matsuno-Gill response to ENSO is an important factor in TC activity but that this influence is seasonally modulated over the SH.

Interannual variability of the thermocline depth in the south‐central Indian Ocean: Respective influences of IOD and ENSO

AbstractThe respective influences of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the thermocline depth (represented by the 20°C isotherm depth, D20) variability in the south‐central Indian Ocean (SCIO) are investigated for the period of 1960–2020. The results show that pronounced interannual variations in D20 mainly occur in the SCIO and display a close relationship with the two tropical climate modes, with positive (negative) phase being associated with SCIO D20 deepening (shoaling). The D20 anomalies (D20A) induced by IOD and ENSO events have the same intensities but present different spatial–temporal features, as demonstrated by partial regression analysis. The IOD‐related D20A occurs during the mature phase of the event and behaves as a local response to anomalous wind stress curl induced by IOD, while the ENSO signature, dominated by the westward‐propagating oceanic Rossby waves, lasts much longer and extends further west.

Impact of climate variability of the Western Tropical Pacific on maximum salinity water in the South China Sea

Salinity observations in the Vietnamese upwelling area in June 2016 indicated a significant increase in the salinity of the maximum salinity water (MSW). The source of MSW inflow into the South China Sea (SCS) is a mixture of the Western North Pacific Central Water and the North Pacific Equatorial Water. Although the East Asian winter monsoon is correlated with both the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the mean salinity of MSW is only spuriously lag correlated to the PDO, but highly correlated to all tropical climate modes (except El Niño Modoki) with a time lag up to 7 months. Composite analyses indicate that the modulation of ENSO by a PDO in a positive phase results in optimal inflow conditions. A comparison of two post-El Niño years with different PDO polarity (negative in 2003 and positive in 2016) shows that the dominant driver is the variability in outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) and in zonal wind in the tropics. In 2003, enhanced convective activity over the West Pacific warm pool resulted in a cyclonic circulation. In 2016, convective activity was weak and an anticyclonic circulation was intensified, which transported the saltier North Pacific Equatorial Water into the SCS. This observed increase in the salinity of MSW requires a modification of the previous definitions of characteristic water masses, which is presented here. The question of whether or not the increase in MSW salinity is a transient phenomenon cannot be answered. It might be possible that the increase in salinity is related to global warming.

North Atlantic Rossby Wave Breaking during the Hurricane Season: Association with Tropical and Extratropical Variability

Abstract This study explores the connection of Rossby wave breaking (RWB) with tropical and extratropical variability during the Atlantic hurricane season. The exploration emphasizes subtropical anticyclonic RWB events over the western North Atlantic, which strongly affect tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The first part of the study investigates the link between RWB and tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Tropical SST variability affects tropical precipitation and modulates the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the subtropical Atlantic, which influences the behaviors of Rossby waves and the frequency of RWB occurrence. Meanwhile, RWB regulates surface heat fluxes and helps to sustain SST anomalies in the western North Atlantic. The second part of the study explores the connections between RWB and extratropical atmosphere variability by leveraging weather regime analysis. The weather regimes over the North Atlantic are closely associated with RWB over the eastern North Atlantic and western Europe, but show weak associations with RWB over the western North Atlantic. Instead, RWB over the western basin is closely related to the weather regimes in the North Pacific–North America sector. The finding helps clarify why the correlation between the Atlantic TC activity and the summertime North Atlantic Oscillation is tenuous. The relations between the extratropical weather regimes and tropical climate modes are also discussed. The findings suggest that both tropical and extratropical variability are important for understanding variations of RWB events and their impacts on Atlantic TC activity.

Isotopic signature of extreme precipitation events in the western U.S. and associated phases of Arctic and tropical climate modes

AbstractExtreme precipitation events, commonly associated with “Atmospheric Rivers,” are projected to increase in frequency and severity in western North America; however, the intensity and landfall position are difficult to forecast accurately. As the isotopic signature of precipitation has been widely utilized as a tracer of the hydrologic cycle and could potentially provide information about key physical processes, we utilize both climate and precipitation isotope data to investigate these events in California from 2001 to 2011. Although individual events have extreme isotopic signatures linked to associated circulation anomalies, the composite across all events unexpectedly resembles the weighted mean for the entire study period, reflecting diverse moisture trajectories and associated teleconnection phases. We document that 90% of events reaching this location occurred during the negative Arctic Oscillation, suggesting a possible link with higher‐latitude warming. We also utilize precipitation data of extreme precipitation events across the entire western U.S. to investigate the relationships between key tropical and Arctic climate modes known to influence precipitation in this region. Results indicate that the wettest conditions occur when the negative Arctic Oscillation, negative Pacific/North American pattern, and positive Southern Oscillation are in sync and that precipitation has increased in the southwestern U.S. and decreased in the northwestern U.S. relative to this phase combination's 1979–2011 climatology. Furthermore, the type of El Niño–Southern Oscillation event, Central Pacific or Eastern Pacific, influences the occurrence, landfall location, and isotopic composition of precipitation.

Interannual variability of the South Indian Countercurrent

AbstractIn the present work, we investigate the interannual variability of the South Indian Countercurrent (SICC), a major and still understudied current of the Indian Ocean circulation. To characterize the interannual variability of the SICC, four different data sets (altimetry, GLORYS, OFAM3, and SODA) are analyzed using multiple tools, which include Singular Spectrum Analysis and wavelet methods. The quasi‐biennial band dominates the SICC low‐frequency variance, with the main peak in the 1.5–1.8 year interval. A secondary peak (2.1–2.5 year) is only found in the western basin. Interannual and decadal‐type modulations of the quasi‐biennial signal are also identified. In addition, limitations of SODA before the 1960s in the SICC region are revealed. Within the quasi‐biennial band, the SICC system presents two main patterns with a multiple jet structure. One pattern is characterized by a robust northern jet, while in the other the central jet is well developed and northern jet is weaker. In both patterns, the southern jet has always a strong signature. When the northern SICC jet is stronger, the northern cell of the subtropical gyre has a triangular shape, with its southern limb having a strong equatorward slant. The quasi‐biennial variability of the SICC is probably related to the Indian Ocean tropical climate modes that are known to have a strong biennial characteristic.

Dynamics of satellite-derived interannual ocean bottom pressure variability in the western tropical North Pacific

[1] Ocean bottom pressure variability, derived from Release-05 Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment time-variable gravity coefficients over the ocean, is investigated along the tropical North Pacific for the case of long time scales (>1 yr) and large space scales (>750 km). To interpret the observations, a linear model of the bottom pressure response to interior wind stress curl is derived on the basis of normal vertical modes; the adjustment comprises contributions from barotropic Sverdrup dynamics as well as first baroclinic mode Rossby waves. Model solutions are evaluated numerically using time-mean ocean stratification from the Ocean Comprehensible Atlas and time-varying surface wind stress from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalysis. In the western tropical North Pacific, model and data compare favorably; simulated and observed time series are significantly correlated, and the model generally explains more than half of the data variance; the good correspondence between model and data speaks to the good quality of the satellite-derived fields. In the central and eastern tropical North Pacific, findings are more ambiguous; model and data time series are mostly not significantly correlated, and simulations generally explain less than half of the data variance; discrepancies between model and data could point to physics absent from the model, for example, signals generated at the eastern boundary. Results provide observational demonstration that baroclinic contributions to bottom pressure changes can be important at low latitudes and low frequencies; findings hint at a basin-scale influence of tropical climate modes on the ocean bottom pressure field.