Trends In Infectious Disease Mortality Research Articles

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Trends in Infectious Disease Mortality in South Korea from 1983 to 2017.

We aimed to describe the infectious disease (ID) mortality trends and evaluate age–period–cohort (APC) effects on ID mortality in Korea. Using cause-of-death and census population estimates data from 1983–2017, age-standardized ID mortality trends were investigated by joinpoint regression analysis. The APC effects on ID mortality were estimated using intrinsic estimator models. The age effect showed a J-shaped concave upward curve. Old age, especially ≥70 years, was a critical factor for ID deaths. Similar to the W-shaped period curve, ID mortality rapidly decreased due to economic development and the expansion of health coverage in the 1980s, decelerated with increasing inequality, surged due to the 1997 economic crisis, and has gradually increased since the mid-2000s. The cohort effect showed an inverted U-shape. The increasing cohort effect due to the deterioration of living standards led to a decreasing trend after the independence of Korea. Notwithstanding the slowdown during the 1950–1953 Korean War, educational expansion, economic growth, fertility reduction, and the improvement of ID-related policies might have led to a continued decline among the cohorts born since the 1960s. Diverse socioeconomic events may have influenced ID mortality trends in Korea via period and cohort effects. Policies to reduce the growing burden of ID deaths should be further improved.

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE MORTALITY IN UKRAINE (1965-2015)

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE MORTALITY IN UKRAINE (1965-2015)

Trends in Infectious Disease Mortality, South Korea, 1983-2015.

We used national statistics from 1983–2015 to evaluate trends in mortality caused by infectious diseases in South Korea. Age-standardized mortality from infectious disease decreased from 43.5/100,000 population in 1983 to 16.5/100,000 in 1996, and then increased to 44.6/100,000 in 2015. Tuberculosis was the most common cause of death in 1983 and respiratory tract infections in 2015. We observed a significant decline in infant deaths caused by infectious diseases, but mortality in persons age >65 years increased from 135 deaths/100,000 population in 1996 to 307/100,000 in 2015. The relative inequality indices for respiratory tract infections, sepsis, and tuberculosis tended to increase over time. Although substantial progress has been achieved in terms of infant mortality, death rates from infectious disease has not decreased overall. Elderly populations with lower education levels and subgroups susceptible to respiratory infections and sepsis should be the focus of preventive policies.

HIV and hepatitis C mortality in Massachusetts, 2002-2011: spatial cluster and trend analysis of HIV and HCV using multiple cause of death.

BackgroundInfectious diseases, while associated with a much smaller proportion of deaths than they were 50 years ago, still play a significant role in mortality across the state of Massachusetts. Most analysis of infectious disease mortality in the state only take into account the underlying cause of death, rather than contributing causes of death, which may not capture the full extent of mortality trends for infectious diseases such as HIV and the Hepatitis C virus (HCV).MethodsIn this study we sought to evaluate current trends in infectious disease mortality across the state using a multiple cause of death methodology. We performed a mortality trend analysis, identified spatial clusters of disease using a 5-step geoprocessing approach and examined spatial-temporal clustering trends in infectious disease mortality in Massachusetts from 2002–2011, with a focus on HIV/AIDS and HCV.ResultsSignificant clusters of high infectious disease mortality in space and time throughout the state were detected through both spatial and space time cluster analysis. The most significant clusters occurred in Springfield, Worcester, South Boston, the Merrimack Valley, and New Bedford with other smaller clusters detected across the state. Multiple cause of death mortality rates were much higher than underlying cause mortality alone, and significant disparities existed across race and age groups.ConclusionsWe found that our multi-method analyses, which focused on contributing causes of death, were more robust than analyses that focused on underlying cause of death alone. Our results may be used to inform public health resource allocation for infectious disease prevention and treatment programs, provide novel insight into the current state of infectious disease mortality throughout the state, and benefited from approaches that may more accurately document mortality trends.

Assessing the impact of antimicrobial resistance.

Trends in infectious disease mortality, contributing factors, and resistance patterns of commonly isolated microorganisms are described. Antimicrobial resistance was first reported in 1941 with sulfonamides. The frequency of antimicrobial resistance has increased in hospital and community settings, resulting in therapeutic failures, the use of increasingly costly and toxic antimicrobials, extended hospital stays, and increased morbidity, mortality, and health care costs. Retrospective analysis of infectious disease mortality in the United States reveals that resistance has increased despite the development of new antimicrobials. Factors contributing to antimicrobial resistance include patients' expectations of receiving an antimicrobial prescription after an office visit (even when one is not warranted), low vaccination rates among the elderly, international travel, and continuous exposure to small amounts of antimicrobials in the food supply. Analysis of susceptibility and resistance patterns of more than 10.3 million isolates found that 36%, 30%, and 31% of Escherichia coli isolates were resistant to ampicillin, ampicillin-sulbactam, and piperacillin, respectively. E. coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae exhibited reduced susceptibility to ceftazidime in certain regions of the country. Pseudomonas aeruginosa exhibited resistance to ciprofloxacin, imipenem, gentamicin, and ceftazidime. The occurrence of ciprofloxacin- and levofloxacin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was similar, while the frequency of erythromycin-resistant S. aureus varied widely nationwide. Nationwide susceptibility to cefotaxime was significantly lower than that to ceftriaxone. Antimicrobial resistance is an increasing problem that contributes to morbidity, mortality, and increased health care costs. Analysis of susceptibility and resistance patterns of specific microorganisms is necessary to gain further insight into the causes of antimicrobial resistance and ways to reduce it.

Trends in Infectious Disease Mortality in the United States During the 20th Century

National Foundation for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and National Center for Infectious Diseases and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia J.A.M.A., 281: 61-68, 1999

Trends in infectious disease mortality in the United States during the 20th century.

Recent increases in infectious disease mortality and concern about emerging infections warrant an examination of longer-term trends. To describe trends in infectious disease mortality in the United States during the 20th century. Descriptive study of infectious disease mortality in the United States. Deaths due to infectious diseases from 1900 to 1996 were tallied by using mortality tables. Trends in age-specific infectious disease mortality were examined by using age-specific death rates for 9 common infectious causes of death. Persons who died in the United States between 1900 and 1996. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates. Infectious disease mortality declined during the first 8 decades of the 20th century from 797 deaths per 100000 in 1900 to 36 deaths per 100000 in 1980. From 1981 to 1995, the mortality rate increased to a peak of 63 deaths per 100000 in 1995 and declined to 59 deaths per 100000 in 1996. The decline was interrupted by a sharp spike in mortality caused by the 1918 influenza epidemic. From 1938 to 1952, the decline was particularly rapid, with mortality decreasing 8.2% per year. Pneumonia and influenza were responsible for the largest number of infectious disease deaths throughout the century. Tuberculosis caused almost as many deaths as pneumonia and influenza early in the century, but tuberculosis mortality dropped off sharply after 1945. Infectious disease mortality increased in the 1980s and early 1990s in persons aged 25 years and older and was mainly due to the emergence of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in 25- to 64-year-olds and, to a lesser degree, to increases in pneumonia and influenza deaths among persons aged 65 years and older. There was considerable year-to-year variability in infectious disease mortality, especially for the youngest and oldest age groups. Although most of the 20th century has been marked by declining infectious disease mortality, substantial year-to-year variation as well as recent increases emphasize the dynamic nature of infectious diseases and the need for preparedness to address them.

Trends in infectious disease mortality in Australia, 1979-1994.

To examine trends in infectious disease mortality in Australia over the period 1979-1994. Descriptive study based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data. All persons who died in Australia during 1979-1994. Infectious diseases as the underlying cause of death by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes. Overall mortality from infectious diseases declined from 29.2/100,000 population in 1979-1981 to 24.1/100,000 in 1992-1994 (P = 0.02). Respiratory infection was the major category of infectious disease mortality, declining from 15.8/100,000 in 1979-1981 to 10.6/100,000 in 1992-1994. HIV infection (increasing from 0 to 2.9/100,000) replaced kidney/urinary tract infection (3.3 to 1.5/100,000) as the second most common category of infectious disease mortality. There were also significant increases in mortality from septicaemia (1.0 to 2.6/100,000), and viral hepatitis (0.2 to 0.5/100,000). The only group in which infectious disease mortality increased was men aged 25-44 years (3.4 to 15.1/100,000). The Northern Territory had the highest mortality rate from infectious disease, but showed a substantial decline (162 to 76/100,000) over the study period. There were also significant declines in Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia. Mortality from infectious disease in Australia declined overall between 1979 and 1994. The substantial decline in the Northern Territory suggests a decline among indigenous Australians. HIV infection has become a leading cause of infectious disease mortality, particularly among adult males.