Trends In Employment Rates Research Articles

Double Disadvantage in a Nordic Welfare State: A Demographic Analysis of the Single-Parent Employment Gap in Finland, 1987–2018

This study demonstrates how an evolving negative educational gradient of single parenthood can interact with changing labour market conditions to shape labour market inequalities between partnered and single parents. We analysed trends in employment rates among Finnish partnered and single mothers and fathers from 1987 to 2018. In the late 1980s’ Finland, single mothers’ employment was internationally high and on par with that of partnered mothers, and single fathers’ employment rate was just below that of partnered fathers. The gaps between single and partnered parents emerged and increased during the 1990s recession, and after the 2008 economic crisis, it widened further. In 2018, the employment rates of single parents were 11–12 percentage points lower than those of partnered parents. We ask how much of this single-parent employment gap could be explained by compositional factors, and the widening educational gradient of single parenthood in particular. We use Chevan and Sutherland’s decomposition technique on register data, which allows us to decompose the single-parent employment gap into the composition and rate effects by each category of the background variables. The findings point to an increasing double disadvantage of single parents: the gradually evolving disadvantage in educational backgrounds together with large differences in employment rates between single and partnered parents with low education explain large parts of the widening employment gap. Sociodemographic changes in interaction with changes in the labour market can produce inequalities by family structure in a Nordic society known for its extensive support for combining childcare and employment for all parents.

Changing labour market conditions during the ‘great recession’ and mental health in Scotland 2007–2011: an example using the Scottish Longitudinal Study and data for local areas in Scotland

This paper reports research exploring how trends in local labour market conditions during the period 2007–2011 (early stages of the ‘great recession’) relate to reported mental illness for individuals. It contributes to research on spatio-temporal variation in the wider determinants of health, exploring how the lifecourse of places relates to socio-geographical inequalities in health outcomes for individuals. This study also contributes to the renewed research focus on the links between labour market trends and population health, prompted by the recent global economic recession. We report research using the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS), a 5.3% representative sample of the Scottish population, derived from census data (https://sls.lscs.ac.uk/). In Scotland, (2011) census data include self-reported mental health. SLS data were combined with non-disclosive information from other sources, including spatio-temporal trends in labour market conditions (calculated using trajectory modelling) in the 32 local authority areas in Scotland. We show that, for groups of local authorities in Scotland over the period 2007–2011, trends in employment varied. These geographically variable trends in employment rates were associated with inequalities in self-reported mental health across the country, after controlling for a number of other individual and neighbourhood risk factors. For residents of regions that had experienced relatively high and stable levels of employment the odds ratio for reporting a mental illness was significantly lower than for the ‘reference group’, living in areas with persistently low employment rates. In areas where employment declined markedly from higher levels, the odds ratio was similar to the reference group. The findings emphasise how changes in local economic conditions may influence people's health and wellbeing independently of their own employment status. We conclude that, during the recent recession, the economic life course of places across Scotland has been associated with individual mental health outcomes.

Explaining the Decline in the US Employment-to-Population Ratio: A Review of the Evidence

This paper first documents trends in employment rates and then reviews what is known about the various factors that have been proposed to explain the decline in the overall employment-to-population ratio between 1999 and 2018. Population aging has had a large effect on the overall employment rate over this period, but within-age-group declines in employment among young- and prime-age adults also have played a central role. Among the factors with effects that we can quantify based on existing evidence, labor demand factors, in particular increased import competition from China and the penetration of robots into the labor market, are the most important drivers of observed within-group declines in employment. Labor supply factors, most notably increased participation in disability insurance programs, have played a less important but not inconsequential role. Increases in the real value of state minimum wages and in the share of individuals with prison records also have contributed modestly to the decline in the aggregate employment rate. In addition to the factors whose effects we roughly quantify, we identify a set of potentially important factors about which the evidence does not yet allow us to draw clear conclusions. These include the challenges associated with arranging child care, improvements in leisure technology, changing social norms, increased use of opioids, the growth in occupational licensing, and declining labor market fluidity. Our evidence-driven ranking of factors should be useful for guiding future discussions about the sources of decline in the aggregate employment-to-population ratio and consequently the likely efficacy of alternative policy approaches to increasing employment rates. (JEL E24, J64)

Long-term local area employment rates as predictors of individual mortality and morbidity: a prospective study in England, spanning more than two decades

BackgroundAlthough long-term trends in local labour market conditions are likely to influence health, few studies have assessed whether this is so. This paper examines whether (1) trends in local employment...

Household Interaction and the Labor Supply of Married Women

Changing social norms, as reflected in the interactions between spouses, are hypothesized to affect the employment rates of married women. A model is built in order to estimate this effect, in which the employment of married men and women is the outcome of an internal household game. The type of the household game is exogenously determined as either Classical or Modern. In the former type of household, the spouses play a Stackelberg leader game in which the wife’s labor supply decision is based on her husband’s employment outcome while the latter type of household is characterized by a symmetric and simultaneous game that determines the spouses’ joint labor supply as Nash equilibrium. Females in Modern households are predicted to have higher employment rates than women in Classical households if they have narrower labor market opportunities and/or higher relative risk aversion. The household type is exogenously determined when the couple gets married and is treated as unobserved heterogeneity. The model is estimated using the Simulated Moments Method (SMM) and data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) survey for the years 1983-93. The estimated model provides a good fit to the trends in employment rates and wages. We estimate that 38 percent of households are Modern and that the participation rate of women in those households is almost 80 percent, which is about 10 higher than in Classical households. Meanwhile, the employment rate among men is almost identical in the two types of household.

Income and employment disparities across European regions: The role of national and spatial factors

Meliciani V. (2006) Income and employment disparities across European regions: the role of national and spatial factors, Regional Studies 40, 75–91. The paper analyses the impact of trends in employment rates on income convergence across European regions looking at the evolution of entire distributions. Between 1988 and 1996, European regions have been characterized by a very slow process of income convergence across countries and by a lack of income convergence within countries. While trends in labour productivity have contributed to income convergence, trends in employment rates have had a diverging impact. Polarization in employment rates also appears to be the result of national factors and of the negative performance of Objective 1 regions more than the consequence of the emergence of geographical clusters that go beyond national borders. Regional convergence; Unemployment; Spatial correlation; Non-parametric estimation Meliciani V. (2006) Les écarts de revenu et d'emploi à travers les régions d'Europe: l'importance des facteurs nationaux et géographiques, Regional Studies 40, 75–91. Cet article cherche à analyser l'impact des tendances dans le domaine des taux d'emploi sur la convergence des revenus à travers les régions d'Europe, étudiant l'évolution des distributions entières. Il s'avère que, sur la période allant de 1988 à 1996, les régions d'Europe se caractérisent par un processus très lent de convergence des revenus à travers les pays et par un manque de convergence des revenus au sein des pays. Alors que les tendances dans le domaine de la productivité du travail ont contribué à la convergence des revenus, les tendances dans le domaine des taux d'emploi ont incité à la divergence. Il s'avère aussi que des taux d'emploi polarisés résultent des facteurs nationaux et de la performance négative des régions classées sous l'Objectif 1 plutôt que de la naissance des regroupements géographiques qui vont au-delà des frontières nationales. Convergence régionale; Chômage; Corrélation géographique; Estimation non-paramétrique Meliciani V. (2006) Einkommen und Ungleichheiten bei Erwerbstätigkeit in europäischen Regionen. Die Rolle überregionaler und räumlicher Faktoren, Regional Studies 40, 75–91. Dieser Aufsatz analysiert die Auswirkung von Tendenzen bei Erwerbstätigkeitsraten auf Einkommenskonvergenz in allen europäischen Regionen, und untersucht die Entwicklung ganzer Verteilungsmuster. Es zeigt sich, daß europäische Regionen sich im Zeitraum 1988–96 durch ein sehr langsames Fortschreiten der Einkommenskonvergenz der Länder und durch Mangel an Einkommenskonvergenz überhaupt auszeichnen. Zwar haben Tendenzen der Arbeitsleistung zur Einkommenskonvergenz beigetragen, doch Tendenzen der Erwerbstätigkeitsraten haben sich davon abweichend ausgewirkt. Die Autoren stellen auch fest, daß Polarisation in Erwerbstätigkeitsraten anscheinend eher das Ergebnis überregionaler Faktoren sowie der negativen Leistung der Objektive 1 Regionen ist als der Folge des Auftauchens geographischer Cluster, die sich über Landesgrenzen hinweg ausdehnen. Regionale Konvergenz; Erwerbslosigkeit; Räumliche Beziehungen; Nichtparametrische Berechnungen Meliciani V. (2006) Desigualdades de ingresos y trabajo en las diferentes regiones europeas. El papel de los factores nacionales y espaciales, Regional Studies 40, 75–91. En este documento analizamos el impacto de las tendencias en las tasas de paro con respecto a la convergencia de ingresos en las diferentes regiones europeas y estudiamos, además, cómo evolucionan distribuciones enteras. Hemos observado que durante el periodo de 1988 a 1996, las regiones europeas se han caracterizado por un proceso muy lento de convergencia de ingresos entre los diferentes países y por una falta de ésta dentro de los mismos países. Si bien las tendencias en la productividad laboral han contribuido a una convergencia de ingresos, hemos notado que las tasas de paro han tenido el efecto opuesto. Asimismo observamos que la polarización en las tasas de empleo parece obedecer más a factores nacionales y al rendimiento negativo de las regiones de Objetivo 1 que a la emergencia de grupos geográficos que traspasan las fronteras nacionales. Convergencia regional; Desempleo; Correlación espacial; Estimación no paramétrica