Trends In Causes Of Death Research Articles

Past trends and future projections of palliative care needs in Chile: analysis of routinely available death registry and population data

BackgroundThe number of people with palliative care needs is projected to increase globally. Chile has recently introduced legislation for universal access to palliative care services for patients with severe and terminal illnesses, including non-cancer conditions. We aimed to estimate the number of people affected by serious health-related suffering and need for palliative care in Chile to 2050.MethodsWe used data on all deaths registered in Chile between 1997-2019 and population estimates for 1997–2050. We used Poisson regression to model past trends in causes of death adjusted by age, sex and population estimates, to project the number of deaths for each cause from 2021 to 2050. We applied the Lancet Commission on Palliative Care and Pain Relief weights to these projections to identify decedents and non-decedents with palliative care needs.ResultsPopulation palliative care needs in Chile are projected to increase from 117 (95% CI 114 to 120) thousand people in 2021 to 209 (95% CI 198 to 223) thousand people in 2050, a 79% increase (IRR 1.79; 95% CI 1.78–1.80). This increase will be driven by non-cancer conditions, particularly dementia (IRR 2.9, 95% CI 2.85–2.95) and cardiovascular conditions (IRR 1.86, 95% CI 1.83–1.89). By 2050, 50% of those estimated to need palliative care will be non-decedents (not expected to die within a year).ConclusionsChile will experience a large increase in palliative care needs, particularly for people with dementia and other non-cancer conditions. Improved availability of high-quality services, expanded clinician training and new sustainable models of care are urgently required to ensure universal access to palliative care.

Longitudinal trends in causes of death among adults with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Europe and North America from 1996 to 2020: a collaboration of cohort studies

Mortality rates among people with HIV have fallen since 1996 following the widespread availability of effective antiretroviral therapy (ART). Patterns of cause-specific mortality are evolving as the population with HIV ages. We aimed to investigate longitudinal trends in cause-specific mortality among people with HIV starting ART in Europe and North America. In this collaborative observational cohort study, we used data from 17 European and North American HIV cohorts contributing data to the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration. We included data for people with HIV who started ART between 1996 and 2020 at the age of 16 years or older. Causes of death were classified into a single cause by both a clinician and an algorithm if International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision or Tenth Revision data were available, or independently by two clinicians. Disagreements were resolved through panel discussion. We used Poisson models to compare cause-specific mortality rates during the calendar periods 1996-99, 2000-03, 2004-07, 2008-11, 2012-15, and 2016-20, adjusted for time-updated age, CD4 count, and whether the individual was ART-naive at the start of each period. Among 189 301 people with HIV included in this study, 16 832 (8·9%) deaths were recorded during 1 519 200 person-years of follow-up. 13 180 (78·3%) deaths were classified by cause: the most common causes were AIDS (4203 deaths; 25·0%), non-AIDS non-hepatitis malignancy (2311; 13·7%), and cardiovascular or heart-related (1403; 8·3%) mortality. The proportion of deaths due to AIDS declined from 49% during 1996-99 to 16% during 2016-20. Rates of all-cause mortality per 1000 person-years decreased from 16·8 deaths (95% CI 15·4-18·4) during 1996-99 to 7·9 deaths (7·6-8·2) during 2016-20. Rates of all-cause mortality declined with time: the average adjusted mortality rate ratio per calendar period was 0·85 (95% CI 0·84-0·86). Rates of cause-specific mortality also declined: the most pronounced reduction was for AIDS-related mortality (0·81; 0·79-0·83). There were also reductions in rates of cardiovascular-related (0·83, 0·79-0·87), liver-related (0·88, 0·84-0·93), non-AIDS infection-related (0·91, 0·86-0·96), non-AIDS-non-hepatocellular carcinoma malignancy-related (0·94, 0·90-0·97), and suicide or accident-related mortality (0·89, 0·82-0·95). Mortality rates among people who acquired HIV through injecting drug use increased in women (1·07, 1·00-1·14) and decreased slightly in men (0·96, 0·93-0·99). Reductions of most major causes of death, particularly AIDS-related deaths among people with HIV on ART, were not seen for all subgroups. Interventions targeted at high-risk groups, substance use, and comorbidities might further increase life expectancy in people with HIV towards that in the general population. US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.

Trends in cause of death among patients with renal cell carcinoma in the United States: a SEER-based study

BackgroundRenal cell carcinoma (RCC) survival has improved due to recent developments in RCC treatment. Therefore, other co-morbid conditions may have a more critical role. This study aims to explore the common causes of death in patients with RCC to improve the management and survival of RCC.MethodWe used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) (1992–2018) database to get patients with RCC. We calculated the percentage of total deaths of six kinds of the cause of death (COD) and the cumulative incidence of death for each selected cause over survival time. The joinpoint regression was utilized to present the trend of mortality rate by COD.ResultsWe enrolled 107,683 cases with RCC. RCC was the leading cause of death in patients with RCC [25376(48.3%)], followed by cardiovascular diseases [9023(17.2%)], other cancers [8003 (15.2%)], other non-cancer diseases [4195 (8%)], non-disease cause [4023 (7.7%)], and respiratory diseases [1934 (3.6%)]. The proportion of patients who died of RCC decreased gradually over survival time, and this value decreased from 69.71% in 1992–1996 to 38.96% in 2012–2018. The non-RCC cause mortality rate showed an increasing trend, whereas a slight decrease was observed in RCC specific mortality rate. The distribution of such conditions varied across different patient populations.ConclusionRCC was still the primary COD of patients with RCC. However, non-RCC cause death was increasingly important among RCC patients in recent two decades. Cardiovascular disease and other cancers were crucial co-morbidities that required significant attention in the management of RCC patients.

Changing causes of death in persons with haematological cancers 1975–2016

Causes of death in persons with haematological cancers include the index cancer, a new cancer or a seemingly unrelated cause such as cardio-vascular disease. These causes are complex and sometimes confounded. We analyzed trends in cause of death in 683,333 persons with an index haematological cancer diagnosed in 1975–2016 reported in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results dataset. Non-cancer deaths were described using standardized mortality ratios. The index cancer was the predominant cause of death amongst persons with plasma cell myeloma, acute lymphoblastic leukaemia and acute myeloid leukaemia. Non-cancer death was the major cause of death in persons with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, Hodgkin lymphoma and chronic myeloid leukaemia, mostly from cardio-vascular diseases. The greatest relative decrease in index-cancer deaths was amongst persons with Hodgkin lymphoma, chronic myeloid leukaemia and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, where the proportion of non-cancer deaths increased substantially. Changing distribution of causes of death across haematological cancers reflects substantial progress in some cancers and suggests strategies to improve the survival of persons with haematological cancers in the future.

Trends in the cause of death among patients with bladder cancer in the US SEER population, 1992-2018.

Bladder cancer (BC) survival has shown no significant improvement. This study investigated the trends in the common causes of death among patients with BC to improve the management and survival of BC. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) (1992-2018) database was utilized to get the data of BC patients. We presented the proportion of six common causes of death in BC patients. We calculated the annual incidence of death due to the six most common causes and analyzed temporal trends in mortality rates using joinpoint regression. The competitive risk model was utilized to analyze the risk factors for death of BC and other causes. 198037 BC patients were enrolled. BC was the most common cause of death (30.62%), followed by other cancers (22.22%), circulatory diseases (20.28%), non-disease causes (11.58%), other non-cancer diseases (8.29%), and respiratory diseases (7.01%). However, the proportion of cases dying from BC gradually decreased from 44.87% in 1992-1996 to 26.74% in 2012-2018. The proportion of deaths due to BC decreased gradually with survival time from diagnosis. Age-standardized temporal trends present an initial increase in BC-specific and other-cause mortality rates. Advanced stage and older age were the most influential risk factors for BC-specific and other-cause death, respectively. Although BC was still the leading cause of death, other causes, especially other cancers and circulatory diseases, gradually became more critical. The management of other comorbid conditions will be a crucial part of the treatment for BC patients, especially for those with prolonged survival and NMIBC tumors.

Cause of Death Trends Among Persons With Spinal Cord Injury in the United States: 1960-2017

ObjectiveTo identify trends in causes of death after spinal cord injury (SCI) that could enhance understanding of why life expectancy after SCI has not improved in the last 3 decades. DesignCohort study. SettingTwenty-nine SCI Model Systems and 3 Shriners Hospitals. ParticipantsIndividuals with traumatic SCI (N=49,266) enrolled in the SCI Collaborative Survival Study Database between 1973 and 2017. InterventionsNot applicable. Main Outcome MeasuresAge-standardized cause-specific SCI mortality rates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for 5 time intervals (1960-1979, 1980-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2009, and 2010-2017). ResultsA total of 17,249 deaths occurred in 797,226 person-years of follow-up. Since 2010, the highest mortality rate was for respiratory diseases, followed by heart disease, cancer, infective and parasitic diseases (primarily septicemia), and unintentional injuries. Mortality rates for respiratory diseases, cancer, stroke, urinary diseases, and digestive diseases, initially decreased significantly but remained relatively stable since 1980, whereas essentially no progress occurred for infective and parasitic diseases. Mortality rates for heart disease, pulmonary embolus, and suicide decreased significantly throughout the entire study period, but were offset by increases in mortality rates for endocrine (primarily diabetes), nutritional, and metabolic diseases, as well as unintentional injuries. From 2010 to 2017, the overall age-standardized mortality rate was 3 times higher for individuals with SCI than the general population, ranging from 27% higher for cancer to 9 times higher for infective and parasitic diseases. ConclusionImproving life expectancy after SCI will require: (1) reducing mortality rates from respiratory diseases and septicemia that have remained high, (2) reversing current trends in diabetes and unintentional injury deaths, and (3) continuing to reduce mortality from heart disease and other leading causes.

Temporal trends in cause-specific mortality among individuals with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in the Framingham Heart Study

BackgroundAll-cause mortality following atrial fibrillation (AF) has decreased over time. Data regarding temporal trends in causes of death among individuals with AF are scarce. The aim of our study was to analyze temporal trends in cause-specific mortality and predictors for cardiovascular (CVD) and non-CVD deaths among participants with incident AF in the Framingham Heart Study.MethodsWe categorized all newly diagnosed AF cases according to age at AF diagnosis (< 70, 70 to < 80, and ≥ 80 years) and epoch of AF diagnosis (< 1990, 1990–2002, and ≥ 2003). We followed participants until death or the last follow-up. We categorized death causes into CVD, non-CVD, and unknown causes. For each age group, we tested for trends in the cumulative incidence of cause-specific death across epochs. We fit multivariable Fine-Gray models to assess subdistribution hazard ratios (HR) between clinical risk factors at AF diagnosis and cause-specific mortality.ResultsWe included 2125 newly diagnosed AF cases (mean age 75.5 years, 47.8% women). During a median follow-up of 4.8 years, 1657 individuals with AF died. There was evidence of decreasing CVD mortality among AF cases diagnosed < 70 years and 70 to < 80 years (ptrend < 0.001) but not ≥ 80 years (p = 0.76). Among the cases diagnosed < 70 years, the cumulative incidence of CVD death at 75 years was 67.7% in epoch 1 and 13.9% in epoch 3; among those 70 to < 80 years, the incidence at 85 years was 58.9% in epoch 1 and 18.9% in epoch 3. Advancing age (HR per 1 SD increase 6.33, 95% CI 5.44 to 7.37), prior heart failure (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.14–1.94), and prior myocardial infarction (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.15–1.80) were associated with increased rate of CVD death.ConclusionsIn this community-based cohort, CVD mortality among AF cases decreased over time. Most deaths in individuals with AF are no longer CVD-related, regardless of age at AF diagnosis.

Patterns and trends in causes of child and adolescent mortality 2000–2016: setting the scene for child health redesign

The under-5 mortality rate has declined from 93 deaths per 1000 live births in 1990 to 39 per 1000 live births in 2018. This improvement in child survival warrants an...

Perfis de mortalidade em pessoas vivendo com HIV/aids: comparação entre o Rio de Janeiro e as demais unidades da federação entre 1999 e 2015

The trend toward stabilization regarding the AIDS epidemic in Brazil over the past decade hides a very complex scenario, where two-thirds of the Brazilian federative units exhibit AIDS standardized mortality rates (ASMR) significantly above the national average and/or in upward tendency. ASMR in Rio de Janeiro State remains virtually unchanged over the years; the state currently occupies the second position in the national ranking of this indicator. To assess temporal trends in causes of death searching for differential profiles that could be useful for understanding mortality among patients with HIV in the state. Causes of death were analyzed in any field of the death certificates from the Mortality Information System between 1999 and 2015 for individuals ≥ 15 years of age. Cardiovascular diseases, non-AIDS-related cancers, external causes, diabetes mellitus, and tuberculosis were established by the mention or not of their codes according to the 10th edition of International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) in death certificates. Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to describe odds ratios in relation to 1999 and adjusted mean annual variations. The results point to the emerging role of external causes and genitourinary diseases and the persistent role played by tuberculosis, differentially affecting AIDS mortality in the state, in a scenario of high mortality due to infectious diseases. These data suggest that tuberculosis remains a major cause of death among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) in Rio de Janeiro, highlighting the need for studies that identify individual-level factors impacting their survival, thus improving local HIV/AIDS control measures.

Trends in cause of death among patients with multiple myeloma in Puerto Rico and the United States SEER population, 1987-2013.

Multiple myeloma (MM) survival has improved due to recent developments in MM treatment. As a result, other co-morbid conditions may be of increasing importance to MM patients' long-term survival. This study examines trends in common causes of death among patients with MM in Puerto Rico, and in the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) population. We analyzed the primary cause of death among incident MM cases recorded in the Puerto Rico Central Cancer Registry (n = 3,018) and the US SEER Program (n = 67,733) between 1987 and 2013. We calculated the cumulative incidence of death due to the eight most common causes and analyzed temporal trends in mortality rates using joinpoint regression. Analyses of SEER were also stratified by Hispanic ethnicity. MM accounted for approximately 72% of all reported deaths among persons diagnosed with MM in Puerto Rico and in SEER. In both populations, the proportion of patients who died from MM decreased with increasing time since diagnosis. Age-standardized temporal trends showed a decreased MM-specific mortality rate among US SEER (annual percent change [APC] = -5.0) and Puerto Rican (APC = -1.8) patients during the study period, and particularly after 2003 in non-Hispanic SEER patients. Temporal decline in non-MM causes of death was also observed among US SEER (APC = -2.1) and Puerto Rican (APC = -0.1) populations. MM-specific mortality decreased, yet remained the predominant cause of death for individuals diagnosed with MM over a 26-year period. The most pronounced decreases in MM-specific death occurred after 2003, which suggests a possible influence of more recently developed MM therapies.

Different trends in causes of death in patients with diabetes between Japan and the USA.

The proportion of total deaths due to vascular disease among people with diabetes has declined over the past three decades in both Japan and the USA, whereas other causes of deaths showed different trends between Japan and the USA.

Can routine inpatient mortality data improve HIV mortality estimates? Inpatient mortality at an urban hospital in South Africa.

South Africa (SA) has one of the world's largest HIV treatment programmes, to which a dramatic increase in life expectancy has been attributed. However, there continue to be concerns regarding the reporting of HIV-related mortality in SA, which varies by source. As accurate HIV mortality estimates are key to measuring the success of the national programme as well as identifying areas for improvement, we propose a complementary approach to monitoring changes in HIV-related mortality using routine inpatient records to examine trends in causes of death and HIV status over time. To investigate the feasibility of this approach by calculating mortality due to natural causes in the medical ward of a hospital during 2010 by HIV status. We conducted a cross-sectional study of inpatient mortality at a regional hospital in Johannesburg, SA, analysing all deaths due to natural causes among adult medical ward inpatients. Cause of death was recorded from the mortuary register. HIV status was ascertained directly from the mortuary register or from laboratory tests specific for HIV diagnosis or monitoring. Of 1 167 inpatients who died, the majority were HIV-positive (58%). HIV positivity among males (55%) was slightly lower than that among females (61%), and HIV-positive patients were younger (median 40 years) than those who were HIV-negative (56 years) and of unknown HIV status (68 years). 'Infections and parasites' was the most common cause of natural death (29%). On average, HIV-positive patients were admitted for slightly longer (mean 10.5 days) than HIV-negative patients (9.6 days) and those of unknown HIV status (8.9days), yet HIV-positive inpatient deaths accounted for the majority (62%) of the total bed days. Even with widespread access to antiretroviral therapy, the majority of inpatient natural deaths at a large public sector hospital in 2010 were of HIV-positive patients and were probably related to HIV. In view of the importance of accurate data on causes of death, both for the HIV programme and to track other diseases, large-scale expansion of this approach over a longer period should be considered.

Abstract A32: Trends in cause of death among Puerto Rican and United States multiple myeloma patients

Abstract Background/objective: Multiple myeloma (MM) is an incurable, yet treatable, cancer of plasma cells. Due to recent improvements in treatment, people diagnosed with MM have been living longer, and other comorbid conditions may be of increasing importance. This study examines temporal trends in specific causes of death among MM patients in Puerto Rico (PR) and the United States (U.S.). Methods: We analyzed primary cause of death among all incident MM cancer cases recorded in the Puerto Rico Central Cancer Registry (PRCCR) (n=3,018) and the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) (n=67,733) between 1987-2013, overall and by follow-up time, age, and sex. We calculated the cumulative incidence of death due to seven selected causes and analyzed age-adjusted mortality trends by MM and other causes using joinpoint regression. Results: MM accounted for 71.7% and 71.3% of all reported deaths in PR and the U.S., respectively, among people diagnosed with MM. In PR, the proportion of patients who died from MM decreased with increasing follow-up time since diagnosis (72.3% of deaths with ≤2 years vs 65.6% with &amp;gt;5 years of follow-up) and the proportion of patients who died from circulatory (4.6% vs 9.0%) and respiratory system (3.7% vs 5.0%) diseases increased slightly. A similar trend of decreasing MM deaths with follow-up time was observed in the U.S. (73.2% of deaths with ≤2 years vs 66.5% with &amp;gt;5 years of follow-up). Joinpoint regression showed a decreasing trend in MM mortality in the U.S. and PR. Conclusion: In both PR and the U.S., people diagnosed with MM are still more likely to die from MM than from another cause. However, a decrease in MM mortality is evident, particularly in more recent years, but this decrease is lower in Puerto Rico. Citation Format: Maira A. Castañeda-Avila, Karen J. Ortiz-Ortiz, Carlos R. Torres-Cintrón, Mara M. Epstein. Trends in cause of death among Puerto Rican and United States multiple myeloma patients [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Tenth AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2017 Sep 25-28; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2018;27(7 Suppl):Abstract nr A32.

Time trends in causes of death after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: A hospital-based study.

To compare causes of in-hospital death after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) in 2 time periods within the same institution. From a prospectively collected institutional database, we retrieved data on 844 consecutive patients with aSAH admitted ≤3 days after ictus in 1999-2002 and 2009-2012. We assessed case-fatality <90 days and causes of in-hospital death and used Poisson regression analyses to calculate adjusted risk ratios (aRR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for change in individual causes of death, with the first time period as the reference group. Ninety-day case-fatality declined from 150/381 patients (39%) in 1999-2002 to 140/463 (30%) in 2009-2012 (aRR 0.74 [95% CI 0.62-0.88]). Compared with 1999-2002, the aRR for specific cause of in-hospital death in 2009-2012 was 1.06 (95% CI 0.72-1.56) for death from the initial bleeding, 0.47 (95% CI 0.31-0.71) for death from rebleeding, and 0.91 (95% CI 0.50-1.65) for death from delayed cerebral ischemia. Over time, the proportion of patients with in-hospital rebleeding declined from 90/381 (24%) to 78/463 (17%) (aRR 0.68 [95% CI 0.52-0.90]), median day of rebleeding from day 5 (IQR 1-10) to day 0 (IQR 0-1), and median day of aneurysm treatment from day 4 (IQR 2-13) to day 1 (IQR 1-2). An important contributor to the reduction in in-hospital death is the reduction in death from rebleeding, which probably results from earlier aneurysm treatment. Our results stress the need for early occlusion of the aneurysm and the need for other strategies that improve outcome by reducing the risk of rebleeding.

Trends in Causes of Death in Low‐Mortality Countries: Implications for Mortality Projections

This study examines the potential role that information about trends in causes of death could have in improving projections of mortality in low‐mortality countries. The article first summarizes overall trends in mortality by cause since the middle of the twentieth century. Special attention is given to the crucial impact of the smoking epidemic on mortality and on cause‐of‐death patterns. The article then discusses the implications for projections and reaches two conclusions. First, mortality projections can be improved by taking into account the distorting effects of smoking. Mortality attributable to smoking has risen in the past but has now leveled off or declined, thus boosting improvements in life expectancy. Second, making cause‐specific projections is not likely to be helpful. Trends in specific medical causes of death have exhibited discontinuities in the past, and future trends are therefore difficult to predict.

Measuring causes of adult mortality in rural northern Malawi over a decade of change

BackgroundVerbal autopsy could be more widely used if interpretation by computer algorithm could be relied on. We assessed how InterVA-4 results compared with clinician review in diagnosing HIV/AIDS-related deaths over the period of antiretroviral (ART) roll-out.DesignIn the Karonga Prevention Study demographic surveillance site in northern Malawi, all deaths are followed by verbal autopsy using a semi-structured questionnaire. Cause of death is assigned by two clinicians with a third as a tie-breaker. The clinician review diagnosis was compared with the InterVA diagnosis using the same questionnaire data, including all adult deaths from late 2002 to 2012. For both methods data on HIV status were used. ART was first available in the district from 2005, and within the demographic surveillance area from 2006.ResultsThere were 1,637 adult deaths, with verbal autopsy data for 1,615. Adult mortality and the proportion of deaths attributable to HIV/AIDS fell dramatically following ART introduction, but for each year the proportion attributed to HIV/AIDS by InterVA was lower than that attributed by clinician review. This was partly explained by the handling of TB cases. Using clinician review as the best available ‘gold standard’, for those aged 15–59, the sensitivity of InterVA for HIV/AIDS deaths was 59% and specificity 88%. Grouping HIV/AIDS/TB sensitivity was 78% and specificity 83%. Sensitivity was lower after widespread ART use.ConclusionsInterVA underestimates the proportion of deaths due to HIV/AIDS. Accepting that it is unrealistic to try and differentiate TB and AIDS deaths would improve the estimates. Caution is needed in interpreting trends in causes of death as ART use may affect the performance of the algorithm.

Continuous increase of cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and non-HIV related cancers as causes of death in HIV-infected individuals in Brazil: an analysis of nationwide data.

IntroductionAfter antiretroviral therapy (ART) became available, there was a decline in the number of deaths in persons infected with HIV. Thereafter, there was a decrease in the proportion of deaths attributed to opportunistic infections and an increase in the proportion of deaths attributed to chronic comorbidities. Herein we extend previous observations from a nationwide survey on temporal trends in causes of death in HIV-infected patients in Brazil.MethodsWe describe temporal trends in causes of death among adults who had HIV/AIDS listed in the death certificate to those who did not. All death certificates issued in Brazil from 1999 to 2011 and listed in the national mortality database were included. Generalized linear mixed-effects logistic models were used to study temporal trends in proportions.ResultsIn the HIV-infected population, there was an annual adjusted average increase of 6.0%, 12.0%, 4.0% and 4.1% for cancer, external causes, cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and diabetes mellitus (DM), respectively, compared to 3.0%, 4.0%, 1.0% and 3.9%, in the non-HIV group. For tuberculosis (TB), there was an adjusted average increase of 0.3%/year and a decrease of 3.0%/year in the HIV and the non-HIV groups, respectively. Compared to 1999, the odds ratio (OR) for cancer, external causes, CVD, DM, or TB in the HIV group were, respectively, 2.31, 4.17, 1.76, 2.27 and 1.02, while for the non-HIV group, the corresponding OR were 1.31, 1.63, 1.14, 1.62 and 0.67. Interactions between year as a continuous or categorical variable and HIV were significant (p<0.001) for all conditions, except for DM when year was considered as a continuous variable (p = 0.76).ConclusionsNon HIV-related co-morbidities continue to increase more rapidly as causes of death among HIV-infected individuals than in those without HIV infection, highlighting the need for targeting prevention measures and surveillance for chronic diseases among those patients.

Forecasting Mortality Trends Allowing for Cause-of-Death Mortality Dependence

Longevity risk is among the most important factors to consider for pricing and risk management of longevity products. Past improvements in mortality over many years, and the uncertainty of these improvements, have attracted the attention of experts, both practitioners and academics. Since aggregate mortality rates reflect underlying trends in causes of death, insurers and demographers are increasingly considering cause-of-death data to better understand risks in their mortality assumptions. The relative importance of causes of death has changed over many years. As one cause reduces, others increase or decrease. The dependence between mortality for different causes of death is important when projecting future mortality. However, for scenario analysis based on causes of death, the assumption usually made is that causes of death are independent. Recent models, in the form of Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs), have been developed for multivariate dynamic systems and capture time dependency with common stochastic trends. These models include long-run stationary relations between the variables and thus allow a better understanding of the nature of this dependence. This article applies VECMs to cause-of-death mortality rates to assess the dependence between these competing risks. We analyze the five main causes of death in Switzerland. Our analysis confirms the existence of a long-run stationary relationship between these five causes. This estimated relationship is then used to forecast mortality rates, which are shown to be an improvement over forecasts from more traditional ARIMA processes, which do not allow for cause-of-death dependencies.

Forecasting Mortality Trends Allowing for Cause-of-Death Mortality Dependence

Longevity risk is amongst the most important factors to consider for pricing and risk management of longevity products. Past improvements in mortality over many years, and the uncertainty of these improvements, have attracted the attention of experts, both practitioners and academics. Since aggregate mortality rates reflect underlying trends in causes of death, insurers and demographers are increasingly considering cause-of-death data to better understand risks in their mortality assumptions. The relative importance of causes of death has changed over many years. As one cause reduces, others increase or decrease. The dependence between mortality for different causes of death is important when projecting future mortality. However, for scenario analysis based on causes of death, the assumption usually made is that causes of death are independent. Recent models, in the form of Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), have been developed for multivariate dynamic systems and capture time dependency with common stochastic trends. These models include long-run stationary relations between the variables, and thus allow a better understanding of the nature of this dependence. This paper applies VECM to cause-of-death mortality rates in order to assess the dependence between these competing risks. We analyze the five main causes of death in Switzerland. Our analysis confirms the existence of a long-run stationary relationship between these five causes. This estimated relationship is then used to forecast mortality rates, which are shown to be an improvement over forecasts from more traditional ARIMA processes, that do not allow for cause-of-death dependencies.

Temporal Trends in Cause of Death Among Swedish and US Men with Prostate Cancer

A growing proportion of men diagnosed with localized prostate cancer detected through prostate-specific antigen testing are dying from causes other than prostate cancer. Temporal trends in specific causes of death among prostate cancer patients have not been well described. We analyzed causes of death among all incident prostate cancer cases recorded in the nationwide Swedish Cancer Registry (1961-2008; n = 210 112) and in the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (1973-2008; n = 490 341). We calculated the cumulative incidence of death due to seven selected causes that accounted for more than 80% of the reported deaths (including ischemic heart disease and non-prostate cancer) and analyzed mortality trends by calendar year and age at diagnosis and length of follow-up. During follow-up through 2008, prostate cancer accounted for 52% of all reported deaths in Sweden and 30% of reported deaths in the United States among men with prostate cancer; however, only 35% of Swedish men and 16% of US men diagnosed with prostate cancer died from this disease. In both populations, the cumulative incidence of prostate cancer-specific death declined during follow-up, while the cumulative incidences of death from ischemic heart disease and non-prostate cancer remained constant. The 5-year cumulative incidence of death from prostate cancer among all men was 29% in Sweden and 11% in the United States. In Sweden and the United States, men diagnosed with prostate cancer are less likely to die from prostate cancer than from another cause. Because many of these other causes of death are preventable through changes in lifestyle, interventions that target lifestyle factors should be integrated into prostate cancer management.