Influenza Transmission Research Articles

Influenza A Virus in Pigs in Senegal and Risk Assessment of Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) Emergence and Transmission to Human.

We conducted an active influenza surveillance in the single pig slaughterhouse in Dakar to investigate the epidemiology and genetic characteristics of influenza A viruses (IAVs) and to provide serologic evidence of avian influenza virus (AIV) infection in pigs at interfaces with human populations in Senegal. Nasal swab and blood samples were collected on a weekly basis from the same animal immediately after slaughter. Influenza A viruses were diagnosed using RT-qPCR and a subset of positive samples for H3 and H1 subtypes were selected for full genome amplification and NGS sequencing. Serum samples were tested by HI assay for the detection of antibodies recognizing four AIVs, including H9N2, H5N1, H7N7 and H5N2. Between September 2018 and December 2019, 1691 swine nasal swabs were collected and tested. Influenza A virus was detected in 30.7% (520/1691), and A/H1N1pdm09 virus was the most commonly identified subtype with 38.07% (198/520), followed by A/H1N2 (16.3%) and A/H3N2 (5.2%). Year-round influenza activity was noted in pigs, with the highest incidence between June and September. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that the IAVs were closely related to human IAV strains belonging to A/H1N1pdm09 and seasonal H3N2 lineages. Genetic analysis revealed that Senegalese strains possessed several key amino acid changes, including D204 and N241D in the receptor binding site, S31N in the M2 gene and P560S in the PA protein. Serological analyses revealed that 83.5% (95%CI = 81.6-85.3) of the 1636 sera tested were positive for the presence of antibodies against either H9N2, H5N1, H7N7 or H5N2. Influenza H7N7 (54.3%) and H9N2 (53.6%) were the dominant avian subtypes detected in Senegalese pigs. Given the co-circulation of multiple subtypes of influenza viruses among Senegalese pigs, the potential exists for the emergence of new hybrid viruses of unpredictable zoonotic and pandemic potential in the future.

The interplay between susceptibility and vaccine effectiveness control the timing and size of an emerging seasonal influenza wave in England

Relaxing social distancing measures and reduced level of influenza over the last two seasons may lead to a winter 2022 influenza wave in England. We used an established model for influenza transmission and vaccination to evaluate the rolled out influenza immunisation programme over October to December 2022. Specifically, we explored how the interplay between pre-season population susceptibility and influenza vaccine efficacy control the timing and the size of a possible winter influenza wave. Our findings suggest that susceptibility affects the timing and the height of a potential influenza wave, with higher susceptibility leading to an earlier and larger influenza wave while vaccine efficacy controls the size of the peak of the influenza wave. With pre-season susceptibility higher than pre-COVID-19 levels, under the planned vaccine programme an early influenza epidemic wave is possible, its size dependent on vaccine effectiveness against the circulating strain. If pre-season susceptibility is low and similar to pre-COVID levels, the planned influenza vaccine programme with an effective vaccine could largely suppress a winter 2022 influenza outbreak in England.

Influenza transmission during COVID-19 measures downscaling in Greece, August 2022: evidence for the need of continuous integrated surveillance of respiratory viruses.

After the near absence of influenza and other respiratory viruses during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, an increased activity of mainly influenza A(H3N2) was detected at the beginning of August 2022 in Greece on three islands. Of 33 cases with respiratory symptoms testing negative for SARS-CoV-2 with rapid antigen tests, 24 were positive for influenza: 20 as A(H3N2) subtype and four as A(H1N1)pdm09 subtype. Phylogenetic analysis of selected samples from both subtypes was performed and they fell into clusters within subclades that included the 2022/23 vaccine strains. Our data suggest that influenza can be transmitted even in the presence of another highly infectious pathogen, such as SARS-CoV-2, with a similar transmission mode. We highlight the need for implementing changes in the current influenza surveillance and suggest a move from seasonal to continuous surveillance, especially in areas with a high number of tourists. Year-round surveillance would allow for a timelier start of vaccination campaigns and antiviral drugs procurement processes.

Effect of Rapid Urbanization in Mainland China on the Seasonal Influenza Epidemic: Spatiotemporal Analysis of Surveillance Data From 2010 to 2017.

The world is undergoing an unprecedented wave of urbanization. However, the effect of rapid urbanization during the early or middle stages of urbanization on seasonal influenza transmission remains unknown. Since about 70% of the world population live in low-income countries, exploring the impact of urbanization on influenza transmission in urbanized countries is significant for global infection prediction and prevention. The aim of this study was to explore the effect of rapid urbanization on influenza transmission in China. We performed spatiotemporal analyses of province-level influenza surveillance data collected in Mainland China from April 1, 2010, to March 31, 2017. An agent-based model based on hourly human contact-related behaviors was built to simulate the influenza transmission dynamics and to explore the potential mechanism of the impact of urbanization on influenza transmission. We observed persistent differences in the influenza epidemic attack rates among the provinces of Mainland China across the 7-year study period, and the attack rate in the winter waves exhibited a U-shaped relationship with the urbanization rates, with a turning point at 50%-60% urbanization across Mainland China. Rapid Chinese urbanization has led to increases in the urban population density and percentage of the workforce but decreases in household size and the percentage of student population. The net effect of increased influenza transmission in the community and workplaces but decreased transmission in households and schools yielded the observed U-shaped relationship. Our results highlight the complicated effects of urbanization on the seasonal influenza epidemic in China. As the current urbanization rate in China is approximately 59%, further urbanization with no relevant interventions suggests a worrisome increasing future trend in the influenza epidemic attack rate.

Variability in Donor Lung Culture and Relative Humidity Impact the Stability of 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Influenza Virus on Nonporous Surfaces.

Respiratory viruses can be transmitted by multiple modes, including contaminated surfaces, commonly referred to as fomites. Efficient fomite transmission requires that a virus remain infectious on a given surface material over a wide range of environmental conditions, including different relative humidities. Prior work examining the stability of influenza viruses on surfaces has relied upon virus grown in media or eggs, which does not mimic the composition of virus-containing droplets expelled from the human respiratory tract. In this study, we examined the stability of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 (H1N1pdm09) virus on a variety of nonporous surface materials at four different humidities. Importantly, we used virus grown in primary human bronchial epithelial cell (HBE) cultures from different donors to recapitulate the physiological microenvironment of expelled viruses. We observed rapid inactivation of H1N1pdm09 on copper under all experimental conditions. In contrast to copper, viruses were stable on polystyrene plastic, stainless steel, aluminum, and glass, at multiple relative humidities, but greater decay on acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) plastic was observed at short time points. However, the half-lives of viruses at 23% relative humidity were similar among noncopper surfaces and ranged from 4.5 to 5.9 h. Assessment of H1N1pdm09 longevity on nonporous surfaces revealed that virus persistence was governed more by differences among HBE culture donors than by surface material. Our findings highlight the potential role of an individual's respiratory fluid on viral persistence and could help explain heterogeneity in transmission dynamics. IMPORTANCE Seasonal epidemics and sporadic pandemics of influenza cause a large public health burden. Although influenza viruses disseminate through the environment in respiratory secretions expelled from infected individuals, they can also be transmitted by contaminated surfaces where virus-laden expulsions can be deposited. Understanding virus stability on surfaces within the indoor environment is critical to assessing influenza transmission risk. We found that influenza virus stability is affected by the host respiratory secretion in which the virus is expelled, the surface material on which the droplet lands, and the ambient relative humidity of the environment. Influenza viruses can remain infectious on many common surfaces for prolonged periods, with half-lives of 4.5 to 5.9 h. These data imply that influenza viruses are persistent in indoor environments in biologically relevant matrices. Decontamination and engineering controls should be used to mitigate influenza virus transmission.

The association between ambient pollutants and influenza transmissibility: A nationwide study involving 30 provinces in China.

The impact of exposure to ambient pollutants on influenza transmissibility is poorly understood. We aim to examine the associations of six ambient pollutants with influenza transmissibility in China and assess the effect of the depletion of susceptibles. Provincial-level surveillance data on weekly influenza-like illness (ILI) incidence and viral activity were utilized to estimate the instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) using spline functions. Log-linear regression and the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) were employed to investigate the effects of ambient pollutants-ozone (O3), particulate matter ≤2.5μm (PM2.5), particulate matter ≤10μm (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and carbon monoxide (CO)-on influenza transmissibility across 30 Chinese provinces from 2014 to 2019. Additionally, the potential effects of the depletion of susceptibles and regional characteristics were explored. There is a significantly positive correlation between influenza transmissibility and five distinct ambient pollutants: PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, and NO2. On average, these ambient pollutants explained percentages of the variance in Rt: 0.8%, 0.8%, 1.9%, 1.3%, and 1.4%, respectively. Conversely, O3 was found to be negatively associated with Rt, explaining 1.5% of the variance in Rt. When controlling for the effect of susceptibles depletion, the effects of all pollutants were more pronounced. The effects of PM2.5, PM10, CO, and SO2 were higher in the eastern and southern regions. Most ambient pollutants may potentially contribute to the facilitation of human-to-human influenza virus transmission in China. This observed association was maintained even after adjusting for variation in the susceptible population.

Transmission and re-infection of Omicron variant XBB.1.5 in hamsters.

Like its predecessors in the XBB family, XBB.1.5 is highly immune evasive from therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and neutralizing antibodies generated by vaccination and/or infection. However, there is a lack of invivo data on XBB.1.5 in animal models such as Syrian hamsters. Syrian hamsters (females) were used to examine airborne transmission along with virus replication of XBB.1.5 in naïve animals and human ACE2 hamsters with pre-existing immunity from a previous infection with Omicron BA.1. Assays were performed to determine neutralizing antibody responses, and virus titers were determined by standard plaque assays. Unlike earlier Omicron subvariants, such as BA.1 and BA.2, XBB.1.5 transmitted more efficiently in the hamster model. In addition, XBB.1.5 partially escaped BA.1-immunity from a previous infection with XBB.1.5 replicating in the nasal turbinate tissues and to a lesser extend in the lung tissues of previously infected hamsters. Our invivo data showing better airborne transmissibility of the Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 than its predecessor, BA.2, in Syrian hamsters will allow researchers to further investigate amino acid substitutions that give XBB.1.5 a fitness advantage over BA.2 in transmission, data that may be important in studies of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in humans. This research is supported by grants from the Center for Research on Influenza Pathogenesis and Transmission (CRIPT; 75N93021C00014), funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and by a Research Program on Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases (JP21fk0108552 and JP21fk0108615), a Project Promoting Support for Drug Discovery (JP21nf0101632), the Japan Program for Infectious Diseases Research and Infrastructure (JP22wm0125002), and The University of Tokyo Pandemic Preparedness, Infection and Advanced Research Center (UTOPIA) grant (JP223fa627001) from the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development.

Association of climatic variables with risk of transmission of influenza in Guangzhou, China, 2005-2021.

Climatic variables constitute important extrinsic determinants of transmission and seasonality of influenza. Yet quantitative evidence of independent associations of viral transmissibility with climatic factors has thus far been scarce and little is known about the potential effects of interactions between climatic factors on transmission. This study aimed to examine the associations of key climatic factors with risk of influenza transmission in subtropical Guangzhou. Influenza epidemics were identified over a 17-year period using the moving epidemic method (MEM) from a dataset of N=295,981 clinically- and laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza in Guangzhou. Data on eight key climatic variables were collected from China Meteorological Data Service Centre. Generalized additive model combined with the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) were developed to estimate the exposure-lag-response curve showing the trajectory of instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) across the distribution of each climatic variable after adjusting for depletion of susceptible, inter-epidemic effect and school holidays. The potential interaction effects of temperature, humidity and rainfall on influenza transmission were also examined. Over the study period (2005-21), 21 distinct influenza epidemics with varying peak timings and durations were identified. Increasing air temperature, sunshine, absolute and relative humidity were significantly associated with lower Rt, while the associations were opposite in the case of ambient pressure, wind speed and rainfall. Rainfall, relative humidity, and ambient temperature were the top three climatic contributors to variance in transmissibility. Interaction models found that the detrimental association between high relative humidity and transmissibility was more pronounced at high temperature and rainfall. Our findings are likely to help understand the complex role of climatic factors in influenza transmission, guiding informed climate-related mitigation and adaptation policies to reduce transmission in high density subtropical cities.

Influenza transmissibility among patients and health-care professionals in a geriatric short-stay unit using individual contact data

Detailed information are lacking on influenza transmissibility in hospital although clusters are regularly reported. In this pilot study, our goal was to estimate the transmission rate of H3N2 2012-influenza, among patients and health care professionals in a short-term Acute Care for the Elderly Unit by using a stochastic approach and a simple susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model. Transmission parameters were derived from documented individual contact data collected by Radio Frequency IDentification technology at the epidemic peak. From our model, nurses appeared to transmit infection to a patient more frequently with a transmission rate of 1.04 per day on average compared to 0.38 from medical doctors. This transmission rate was 0.34 between nurses. These results, even obtained in this specific context, might give a relevant insight of the influenza dynamics in hospitals and will help to improve and to target control measures for preventing nosocomial transmission of influenza. The investigation of nosocomial transmission of SARS-COV-2 might gain from similar approaches.

A Comparison of Host Responses to Infection with Wild-Type Avian Influenza Viruses in Chickens and Tufted Ducks.

Cross-species transmission of influenza A virus (IAV) from wild waterfowl to poultry is the first step in a chain of events that can ultimately lead to exposure and infection of humans. Herein, we study the outcome of infection with eight different mallard-origin IAV subtypes in two different avian hosts: tufted ducks and chickens. We found that infection and shedding patterns as well as innate immune responses were highly dependent on viral subtypes, host species, and inoculation routes. For example, intraoesophageal inoculation, commonly used in mallard infection experiments, resulted in no infections in contrast to oculonasal inoculation, suggesting a difference in transmission routes. Despite H9N2 being endemic in chickens, inoculation of mallard-origin H9N2 failed to cause viable infection beyond 1 day postinfection in our study design. The innate immune responses were markedly different in chickens and tufted ducks, and despite the presence of retinoic acid-inducible gene-I (RIG-I) in tufted duck transcriptomes, it was neither up nor downregulated in response to infection. Overall, we have revealed the heterogeneity of infection patterns and responses in two markedly different avian hosts following a challenge with mallard-origin IAV. These virus-host interactions provide new insights into important aspects of interspecies transmission of IAV. IMPORTANCE Our current findings highlight important aspects of IAV infection in birds that have implications for our understanding of its zoonotic ecology. In contrast to mallards where the intestinal tract is the main site of IAV replication, chickens and tufted ducks show limited or no signs of intestinal infection suggesting that the fecal-oral transmission route might not apply to all bird IAV host species. Our results indicate that mallard-origin IAVs undergo genetic changes upon introduction into new hosts, suggesting rapid adaptation to a new environment. However, similar to the mallard, chickens and tufted ducks show a limited immune response to infection with low pathogenic avian influenza viruses. These findings and future studies in different IAV hosts are important for our understanding of barriers to IAV transmission between species and ultimately from the wild reservoir to humans.

Identifying potential significant factors impacting zero-inflated proportion data.

Classical supervised methods like linear regression and decision trees are not completely adapted for identifying impacting factors on a response variable corresponding to zero-inflated proportion data (ZIPD) that are dependent, continuous and bounded. In this article we propose a within-block permutation-based methodology to identify factors (discrete or continuous) that are significantly correlated with ZIPD, we propose a performance indicator quantifying the percentage of correlation explained by the subset of significant factors, and we show how to predict the ranks of the response variables conditionally on the observation of these factors. The methodology is illustrated on simulated data and on two real data sets dealing with epidemiology. In the first data set, ZIPD correspond to probabilities of transmission of Influenza between horses. In the second data set, ZIPD correspond to probabilities that geographic entities (eg, states and countries) have the same COVID-19 mortality dynamics.

Human Seasonal Influenza Viruses in Swine Workers in Lagos, Nigeria: Consequences for Animal and Public Health.

The influenza A virus has been scarcely investigated in pigs in Africa, with rare detection prior to 2009. The spread of A(H1N1)pdm09 changed the epidemiology due to frequent human-to-swine transmission and the emergence of various new reassortants. This study therefore aimed at estimating the level of circulation and characterizing influenza A viruses at the interface between swine workers, who are crucial players in the inter-species transmission of influenza A viruses, and their animals in several farms in Nigeria, a hub for pig production in Africa. This cross-sectional study showed that 24.6% (58/236) of the pig serum samples collected in 2013-2014 had anti-influenza A antibodies in the absence of vaccination programs, but none of the pig swabs (n = 1193) were positive according to RT-qPCR. Viral RNA was detected in 0.9% (2/229) of swine workers sampled at their place of work, and the strains were characterized as A(H1N1)pdm09 and seasonal A(H3N2). Our results highlight that more awareness of swine workers regarding the consequences of reverse zoonosis for animal and public health is warranted. Annual vaccination and the wearing of masks when experiencing influenza-like symptoms would help decrease influenza inter-species transmission, while surveillance should be adequately supported for early detection.

Farm management practices associated with influenza A virus contamination of people working in Midwestern United States swine farms

Indirect transmission of influenza A virus (IAV) contributes to virus spread in pigs. To identify farm management activities with the ability to contaminate farmworkers’ hands and clothing that then could be a source of virus spread to other pigs, we conducted a within-farm, prospective IAV surveillance study. Hands and clothes from farmworkers performing the activities of piglet processing, vaccination, or weaning were sampled before and after the activities were performed. Samples were tested by IAV rRT-PCR and virus viability was assessed by cell culture. A multivariate generalized linear model was used to detect associations of the activities with IAV contamination. Of the samples collected for IAV rRT-PCR testing, there were 16% (12/76) collected immediately after processing, 96% (45/48) collected after vaccination, and 94% (29/31) collected after weaning that tested positive. Samples collected immediately after vaccination and weaning, i.e., activities that took place during the peri-weaning period when pigs were about 3 weeks of age, had almost 6 times higher risk of IAV detection and had more samples IAV positive (p-value < 0.0001) than samples collected after processing, i.e., an activity that took place in the first few days of life. Both, hands and clothes had similar contamination rates (46% and 55% respectively, p-value = 0.42) and viable virus was isolated from both. Our results indicate that activities that involve the handling of infected piglets close to weaning age represent a significant risk for IAV dissemination due to the high level of IAV contamination found in farmworkers’ hands and coveralls involved in the activities. Biosecurity protocols that include hand sanitation and changing clothing after performing activities with a high-risk of influenza contamination should be recommended to farmworkers to control and limit the mechanical spread of IAV between pigs.

A stochastic compartmental model to simulate intra- and inter-species influenza transmission in an indoor swine farm.

Common in swine production worldwide, influenza causes significant clinical disease and potential transmission to the workforce. Swine vaccines are not universally used in swine production, due to their limited efficacy because of continuously evolving influenza viruses. We evaluated the effects of vaccination, isolation of infected pigs, and changes to workforce routine (ensuring workers moved from younger pig batches to older pig batches). A Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model was used to simulate stochastic influenza transmission during a single production cycle on an indoor hog growing unit containing 4000 pigs and two workers. The absence of control practices resulted in 3,957 pigs [0-3971] being infected and a 0.61 probability of workforce infection. Assuming incoming pigs had maternal-derived antibodies (MDAs), but no control measures were applied, the total number of infected pigs reduced to 1 [0-3958] and the probability of workforce infection was 0.25. Mass vaccination (40% efficacious) of incoming pigs also reduced the total number of infected pigs to 2362 [0-2374] or 0 [0-2364] in pigs assumed to not have MDAs and have MDAs, respectively. Changing the worker routine by starting with younger to older pig batches, reduced the number of infected pigs to 996 [0-1977] and the probability of workforce infection (0.22) in pigs without MDAs. In pigs with MDAs the total number of infected pigs was reduced to 0 [0-994] and the probability of workforce infection was 0.06. All other control practices alone, showed little improvement in reducing total infected pigs and the probability of workforce infection. Combining all control strategies reduced the total number of infected pigs to 0 or 1 with a minimal probability of workforce infection (<0.0002-0.01). These findings suggest that non-pharmaceutical interventions can reduce the impact of influenza on swine production and workers when efficacious vaccines are unavailable.

Quantifying the rebound of influenza epidemics after the adjustment of zero-COVID policy in China.

The coexistence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and seasonal influenza epidemics has become a potential threat to human health, particularly in China in the oncoming season. However, with the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic, the rebound extent of the influenza activities is still poorly understood. In this study, we constructed a susceptible-vaccinated-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SVIRS) model to simulate influenza transmission and calibrated it using influenza surveillance data from 2018 to 2022. We projected the influenza transmission over the next 3 years using the SVIRS model. We observed that, in epidemiological year 2021-2022, the reproduction numbers of influenza in southern and northern China were reduced by 64.0 and 34.5%, respectively, compared with those before the pandemic. The percentage of people susceptible to influenza virus increased by 138.6 and 57.3% in southern and northern China by October 1, 2022, respectively. After relaxing NPIs, the potential accumulation of susceptibility to influenza infection may lead to a large-scale influenza outbreak in the year 2022-2023, the scale of which may be affected by the intensity of the NPIs. And later relaxation of NPIs in the year 2023 would not lead to much larger rebound of influenza activities in the year 2023-2024. To control the influenza epidemic to the prepandemic level after relaxing NPIs, the influenza vaccination rates in southern and northern China should increase to 53.8 and 33.8%, respectively. Vaccination for influenza should be advocated to reduce the potential reemergence of the influenza epidemic in the next few years.

SARS-CoV-2 Ancestral and Variant of Concern Breakthrough infections boost both cross-reactive cellular and humoral immune responses in mRNA-vaccinated Hamsters.

Abstract When mRNA vaccines were rolled out under EUA, it was observed that a single vaccination, already protected vaccinees from severe disease, even before neutralizing antibodies appearded. To better understand the underlying mechanism of protection, we vaccinated hamsters once with a suboptimal dose of Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 mRNA vaccine (5mg/animal). Four weeks post vaccination, animals were challenged with different variants of SARS-CoV-2. Vaccination resulted in antibody ELISA titers against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, but antibody titers were too low for efficient neutralization of antigenically matching USA-WA1/2020 (WA1) or drifted variants of concern (Alpha, Beta, Delta and Mu). Nevertheless, suboptimal vaccination resulted in reduced morbidity for WA1 and Alpha-challenged animals and complete control of lung virus titers for WA1, Alpha and Delta but with breakthrough infection for the antigenically more distant Beta and Mu. Moreover, T cell responses were higher in vaccinated animals compared to unvaccinated ones at 5 days post infection, suggesting a recall of vaccine-primed T cells. Infection with different SARS-CoV-2 variants also back-boosted neutralizing antibody responses against the challenge virus and in the case of the variants of concern, against the antigenically distant but vaccine-matched WA1. Transcriptomic analysis of host immune responses to infection reflects both vaccination status and disease course, is further compared with lung pathology and suggests a role for interstitial lung macrophages in vaccine-mediated protection. In summary, protection after suboptimal vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 challenge in hamsters correlates with recall of both vaccine-induced B- and T-cell responses. This study was also partly funded by CRIPT (Center for Research on Influenza Pathogenesis and Transmission), a NIH NIAID funded Center of Excellence for Influenza Research and Response (CEIRR, contract number 75N93021C00014) to A.G.S and M.S. and by R01 AI160706 to M.S.

Potential Effects of Habitat Change on Migratory Bird Movements and Avian Influenza Transmission in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway

Wild waterbirds, and especially wild waterfowl, are considered to be a reservoir for avian influenza viruses, with transmission likely occurring at the agricultural-wildlife interface. In the past few decades, avian influenza has repeatedly emerged in China along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF), where extensive habitat conversion has occurred. Rapid environmental changes in the EAAF, especially distributional changes in rice paddy agriculture, have the potential to affect both the movements of wild migratory birds and the likelihood of spillover at the agricultural-wildlife interface. To begin to understand the potential implications such changes may have on waterfowl and disease transmission risk, we created dynamic Brownian Bridge Movement Models (dBBMM) based on waterfowl telemetry data. We used these dBBMM models to create hypothetical scenarios that would predict likely changes in waterfowl distribution relative to recent changes in rice distribution quantified through remote sensing. Our models examined a range of responses in which increased availability of rice paddies would drive increased use by waterfowl and decreased availability would result in decreased use, predicted from empirical data. Results from our scenarios suggested that in southeast China, relatively small decreases in rice agriculture could lead to dramatic loss of stopover habitat, and in northeast China, increases in rice paddies should provide new areas that can be used by waterfowl. Finally, we explored the implications of how such scenarios of changing waterfowl distribution may affect the potential for avian influenza transmission. Our results provide advance understanding of changing disease transmission threats by incorporating real-world data that predicts differences in habitat utilization by migratory birds over time.

Influenza transmission in the guinea pig model is insensitive to the ventilation airflow speed: Evidence for the role of aerosolized fomites

Influenza transmission in the guinea pig model is insensitive to the ventilation airflow speed: Evidence for the role of aerosolized fomites

Timing of seasonal influenza epidemics for 25 countries in Africa during 2010–19: a retrospective analysis

Using country-specific surveillance data to describe influenza epidemic activity could inform decisions on the timing of influenza vaccination. We analysed surveillance data from African countries to characterise the timing of seasonal influenza epidemics to inform national vaccination strategies. We used publicly available sentinel data from African countries reporting to the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response FluNet platform that had 3-10 years of data collected during 2010-19. We calculated a 3-week moving proportion of samples positive for influenza virus and assessed epidemic timing using an aggregate average method. The start and end of each epidemic were defined as the first week when the proportion of positive samples exceeded or went below the annual mean, respectively, for at least 3 consecutive weeks. We categorised countries into five epidemic patterns: northern hemisphere-dominant, with epidemics occurring in October-March; southern hemisphere-dominant, with epidemics occurring in April-September; primarily northern hemisphere with some epidemic activity in southern hemisphere months; primarily southern hemisphere with some epidemic activity in northern hemisphere months; and year-round influenza transmission without a discernible northern hemisphere or southern hemisphere predominance (no clear pattern). Of the 34 countries reporting data to FluNet, 25 had at least 3 years of data, representing 46% of the countries in Africa and 89% of Africa's population. Study countries reported RT-PCR respiratory virus results for a total of 503 609 specimens (median 12 971 [IQR 9607-20 960] per country-year), of which 74 001 (15%; median 2078 [IQR 1087-3008] per country-year) were positive for influenza viruses. 248 epidemics occurred across 236 country-years of data (median 10 [range 7-10] per country). Six (24%) countries had a northern hemisphere pattern (Algeria, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Morocco, Niger, and Tunisia). Eight (32%) had a primarily northern hemisphere pattern with some southern hemisphere epidemics (Cameroon, Ethiopia, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, and Togo). Three (12%) had a primarily southern hemisphere pattern with some northern hemisphere epidemics (Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda). Three (12%) had a southern hemisphere pattern (Central African Republic, South Africa, and Zambia). Five (20%) had no clear pattern (Côte d'Ivoire, DR Congo, Madagascar, Mauritius, and Rwanda). Most countries had identifiable influenza epidemic periods that could be used to inform authorities of non-seasonal and seasonal influenza activity, guide vaccine timing, and promote timely interventions. None. For the Berber, Luganda, Xhosa, Chewa, Yoruba, Igbo, Hausa and Afan Oromo translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Mechanisms, Techniques and Devices of Airborne Virus Detection: A Review.

Airborne viruses, such as COVID-19, cause pandemics all over the world. Virus-containing particles produced by infected individuals are suspended in the air for extended periods, actually resulting in viral aerosols and the spread of infectious diseases. Aerosol collection and detection devices are essential for limiting the spread of airborne virus diseases. This review provides an overview of the primary mechanisms and enhancement techniques for collecting and detecting airborne viruses. Indoor virus detection strategies for scenarios with varying ventilations are also summarized based on the excellent performance of existing advanced comprehensive devices. This review provides guidance for the development of future aerosol detection devices and aids in the control of airborne transmission diseases, such as COVID-19, influenza and other airborne transmission viruses.