ABSTRACT Road traffic accidents are responsible for 1.35 million deaths, and road safety is the part of sustainable development goals, which aims to provide a safe, accessible, affordable, and sustainable transport system by 2030. Despite significant efforts made by the Tunisia government to reduce traffic accidents, there is still a need to understand the root causes of these accidents. This study examines the relationship between road traffic fatalities, economic growth, total mileage of highways, private vehicle ownership, and urbanization in Tunisia from 2000 to 2023. This study employs novel estimation techniques, including dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (DARDL) simulations and Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS), to capture the counterfactual shocks in road traffic fatalities. The DARDL results revealed that 1% increase in economic growth, urbanization, and private car ownership leads to a 0.316%, 0.371% and 0.347% rise in road traffic accidents in the long-run, respectively. The KRLS results indicate that economic growth and private vehicle ownership have a positive marginal effect on road traffic fatalities. Specifically, an increase in private vehicle ownership consistently raises traffic fatalities across all percentiles. In contrast, the effect of total highway mileage is initially positive, leading to an increase in accidents, but turns negative in the later stages. Additionally, the frequency domain causality results show that economic growth granger causes road accident for frequencies corresponding to long-term (0.93–1.00) and medium-term (1.03–1.50) horizons. Urbanization granger causes road accident in the medium term (1.69 to 1.97) and short term (2.01 to 2.63). Private vehicle Granger-causes road accident for frequencies between 0.00 and 0.89 in the long run and between 1.03 and 1.73 in the medium term. The governments should include traffic education as part of syllabus from primary to higher studies. Government should create awareness about the loss due to road crashes.
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