Trade War Research Articles

DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF INTERNATIONAL DERIVATIVES EXCHANGE TRADING IN THE CONDITIONS OF GLOBALIZATION

The article highlights the close connection between the development of international exchange trading in derivative contracts and the processes of globalization and especially its negative consequences, in particular global events, such as military conflicts and trade wars, which are currently ongoing. It is noted that globalization, as a world-wide process, cannot be stopped, even if it has negative consequences. Today, globalization covers all spheres of economic activity of market participants at both the microeconomic and macroeconomic levels. It is noted that one of the important and key conditions of globalization is its close connection with the political situation and political sentiments of society around the world. In our opinion, the impact of globalization on public opinion and international derivatives trading directly depends on the political situation and political decisions of countries, which significantly affect the globalization process. The impact of globalization intensified at the end of the last century. It is revealed that the openness and transparency of economic relations between market participants at the global level creates tension and instability, which leads to high price volatility on international exchanges. It is noted that the main tools in the fight against price risks are exchange-traded derivative contracts for the main types of commodity and financial assets. It is noted that the main directions of development of international exchange trading in derivative contracts include: growth in trading volumes in futures and options contracts; increased demand for exchange instruments due to the continuation of the war in Ukraine and other geopolitical changes; creation of favorable conditions for financial security to guarantee the execution of exchange transactions; expansion of the spectrum of exchange brokers duties; growth in the share of financial derivatives trading in the overall structure of international exchange trading; achievement of new record trading indicators on international exchanges; tokenization of exchange trading processes and use of A.I. in the development of innovative exchange strategies for trading in derivative contracts.

Data-Driven Segmentation and Targeting in China’s Mineral Resource Supply Chain: A Quantitative Study of Industry Buyers and Traders

China's mineral resource supply chain is crucial in global industrial production and economic stability. That is why political instability, environmental issues, and unstable materials prices make it compulsory for firms to employ data-driven segmentation and targeting techniques. This paper uses a quantitative approach to analyze big data, machine learning and advanced analytics for effective supply chain management in mineral resources. The study reveals that the industry buyers and traders can be classified depending on their purchasing activeness and willingness to take risks to design strategies that increase efficiency among the suppliers. It also looks into the roles of advanced frontiers like artificial intelligence and blockchain in enhancing transparency, demand forecasting and risk management. Also, international relations such as trade wars and interrupted supply chains impact China’s strategic management of mineral resources. The study provides policy prescriptions for increasing domestic production, engaging in international cooperation, and developing technology to reduce supply chain risks. Ultimately, data-driven segmentation and targeting offer a robust framework for strengthening China's position in the global mineral market while ensuring sustainability and security.

A QUALITATIVE STUDY OF RETAIL BUSINESS WARFARE

The current situation has created a state of disequilibrium between modern and traditional retail, which has been further exacerbated by the disruption of information and communication technology. The disruption of information and communication technology has resulted in an imbalanced trade war between modern and traditional retail. The objective of this study is to ascertain the circumstances surrounding the emergence of the trade war and its subsequent impact on consumer shopping behaviour in Jayapurag City. This study employs a qualitative methodology, utilising primary data obtained through in-depth interviews with retail leaders and proprietors. This study focuses on modern and traditional retailers in Jayapura City. The findings indicate that the business conflict between modern and traditional retailers presents both challenges and opportunities for both groups. Nevertheless, the extant circumstances preclude collaboration between the two, yet the possibility of collaboration is evident should the government succeed in establishing business regulations for both.

Editorial Volume 50 Issue 3

Welcome to Volume 50, Issue 3, of The Canadian Journal of Learning and Technology (CJLT). CJLT is a peer-reviewed journal that has supported research and practice in technology for learning for decades. This bilingual journal is free of charge to anyone with Internet access, is multi-indexed, and is presented in accessible formats. There are no article submission or publication fees. Amid threats of a trade war and an imminent federal election in Canada, the editorial team completed and released this issue. Discussions about the decline of civil society and the needs of democracies surround us. We are reminded that education plays a crucial role in fostering informed, engaged, and responsible citizens, which is essential for civil discourse and productive civic participation. More broadly, Canadian and global education remains focused on the development needs of individuals and the socioeconomic world. These needs are shaped by the increased use of artificial intelligence tools, as well as the impact of remote learning and learning losses experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. CJLT continues to provide research addressing education in this evolving landscape of contextual and technological change.

Modelling regional exposure to new trade wars

Modelling regional exposure to new trade wars

Resolving the Banana Trade Wars: Evidence that Alternative Dispute Resolution Can Settle Major Trade Disputes

The Geneva Agreement on Trade in Bananas was concluded in 2009. The Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) applauded the successful effort by the Latin American banana-producing nations, the United States and the European Union ending a twenty-year dispute on trade in bananas by using ‘pragmatism, creativity and diplomacy’. This paper outlines the steps that culminated in the pragmatic and creative approach that resolved one of the most commercially meaningful, politically sensitive, and technically complex global trade disputes. The approach taken was a deliberate move away from litigation over legal rights and obligations to a facilitated solution reconciling the parties’ interests using good offices and mediation. This article, in memory of Dr Frieder Roessler, acknowledges his guidance and support to me as Counsel at the Advisory Centre on WTO Law during this final innovative phase of the banana trade wars. Frieder was a remarkable trade lawyer with a laser-focus on pragmatic solutions. I feel fortunate to have been given the opportunity to propose the use of Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR), and then to have served as Counsel, during the final mediation and negotiation phase that resolved this major trade dispute. The experience resolving the banana trade wars through pragmatic non-binding ADR is pertinent at a time when the most significant disputes in global trade are less likely to be resolved through litigation and binding decisions.

The Impact of US-China Trade War on China’s Exports: Evidence From Difference-in-Differences Model

The Impact of US-China Trade War on China’s Exports: Evidence From Difference-in-Differences Model

Examining the roles of monetary and fiscal policies in Vietnam's economic growth amid global challenges: A Bayesian VAR and wavelet coherence approach

This study examines the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on Vietnam's economic growth from 1996 to 2023, particularly in the context of significant global economic challenges, including the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, WTO accession, and the US-China trade war. Employing a dual-method approach with Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) and Wavelet Transform Coherence (WTC), the findings reveal that fiscal policy, measured through public consumption expenditure, strongly and positively influences economic growth, especially during key periods such as 2001–2006 (pre-WTO accession) and 2016–2021 (amid the US-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic). In contrast, monetary policy, represented by broad money supply, negatively affected growth, particularly between 2006–2011, when high inflation followed Vietnam's WTO accession. The study concludes that fiscal policy should serve as the cornerstone of Vietnam's economic development, with close coordination with monetary policy to ensure stability and sustainable growth, especially during periods of significant volatility. Policymakers are encouraged to emphasize counter-cyclical fiscal measures and balance inflation control with growth promotion to navigate economic challenges effectively.

Exploring the Impact of China’s Retaliatory Tariffs on US Soybean Exports with Machine Learning Techniques

Abstract The 2018/2019 trade conflict between the United States and China impacted a broad array of agricultural products, including soybeans. Previous trade studies using gravity models fail to account for trends and complex seasonal patterns observed in the data. This study uses a machine learning (ML) approach to estimate losses in soybean export value and volume from the trade war. We find that models using ML techniques outperform traditional models and estimate losses in the value of soybean exports of $10.16 billion/year. The ML models fit the complex export trade data series well, highlighting the importance of utilizing improved modeling approaches.

Are Trade Agreements Effective Buffers in Trade Wars?

Are Trade Agreements Effective Buffers in Trade Wars?

On the Issue of Intensifying the Struggle of "Heavyweight" Countries in The World Trade Market

The relevance of the presented study is determined by the fact that recently the intensifi cation of the trade confrontation between the USA and China, linked, among other things, to the second coming to power of D. Trump, has again attracted increased attention from market participants and specialists. The purpose of the presented study is to examine the causes and expected consequences of the intensification of the trade confrontation (often referred to as a trade war) between the United States and China as heavyweight countries in the world trade market. The scientific novelty of the obtained results lies in the substantiation that the fact of the trade war unleashed by the United States is a clear and natural manifestation of the global economic crisis of the 2020s. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of their use in developing measures to anticipate the impact of a trade war on the national economy.

Recalibrating S&T collaborations under the decoupling -evidence from Chinese ICT firms

Abstract The current decoupling and bifurcated situation arising from external shocks, represented by the US-China trade war, has triggered unprecedented challenges for firms in strategically sensitive industries, such as the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) industry. Chinese firms in the ICT industry are at the forefront, and they are compelled to recalibrate their innovation portfolios. Through the institutional logics perspective, this study investigates how Chinese ICT firms recalibrate their research and development (R&D) investment in science and technology (S&T) collaboration. The findings show that ICT firms have prioritized their R&D resources in collaborating with domestic partners, mainly domestic firms, while replacing the S&T collaboration with foreign firms. Furthermore, firms’ overseas business plays a negative moderating role in the relationship between firms’ R&D investment and S&T collaboration with domestic partners. However, government support has not exerted a significant moderating role in this relationship. We also find that collaborating with domestic partners does not translate into improved profitability for these firms. The study provides timely insights into firms’ innovative collaboration under the decoupling and valuable suggestions for policymakers and managers.

The Impact of the United States-China Trade War on Indonesia's Sharia Economic Politics

The Impact of the United States-China Trade War on Indonesia's Sharia Economic Politics

Analysis of the Economic Impacts of the China-U.S. Trade War on China and US Economy

Analysis of the Economic Impacts of the China-U.S. Trade War on China and US Economy

The Effect of the U.S.–China Trade War on Chinese Corporate Innovation: A Curse or a Blessing?

The Effect of the U.S.–China Trade War on Chinese Corporate Innovation: A Curse or a Blessing?

Heterogeneity and Trade Dispute Comparing U.S.-Japan Trade Friction and U.S.-China Trade and Technological Rivalry

This study conducts a comparative analysis of two major trade conflicts-the U.S.-Japan trade friction of the 1980s and the current U.S.-China trade war- to explore the critical role of heterogeneity in shaping these conflicts. The study posits that heterogeneity cannot be assimilated or eliminated because countries, as countries like China and Japan inherently develop models different from that of the United States. Moreover, heterogeneity is closely related to state power; when power levels between states converge, heterogeneity is often seen as a potential threat.However, this study also points out that similarities in political institutions and ideologies can help mitigate the scope and intensity of conflicts. In the case of the U.S.-Japan dispute, most of the conflict has been contained between the two countries through targeted bilateral negotiations and industry-specific agreements. In contrast, the -China economic game poses a more far-reaching challenge to the existing international order. While China's economic rise has followed certain similar path to Japan's, its unique political system and ideological differences have made the impact of this conflict more pronounced.

Honour versus face: a psycho-cultural approach to US-China great power politics

ABSTRACT This article presents a psycho-cultural framework for analysing US-China relations in the context of the great power competition, explaining the escalation of their rivalry and the proliferation of conflict. It emphasises the critical role of self-esteem and culture in shaping domestic and international dynamics, focusing on the interplay between honour and face as distinct expressions of self-esteem in US and Chinese societies. The study illustrates how pursuing national self-esteem drives confrontational interactions between these two powers, with the 2018–2020 US-China trade war as a prime example. Here, nationalist narratives were crafted to evoke emotional resonance with domestic audiences, intensifying the conflict beyond mere economic competition into a struggle for national self-esteem. The rise of identity politics in both countries has further exacerbated tensions, as perceived disrespect has triggered coercive responses, worsening bilateral relations.

Shock Propagation and the Geometry of International Trade: The US–China Trade Bipolarity in the Light of Network Science

What is the impact of geopolitics on the geometry of global trade? What is the key structural role that led to the emergence of the US–China trade bipolarity? Here, we study the geometry of international trade, taking into account not only the direct but also the indirect trade relations. We consider the self-weight of each country as an indicator of its intrinsic robustness to exogenous shocks. We assess the vulnerability of a country to potential demand or supply shocks based on the entropy (diversification) of its trade flows. By considering the indirect trade relations, we found that the key structural role that led to the emergence of the US–China trade bipolarity is that of the intermediary hub that acts as a “bridge” between different trade clusters. The US and China occupied key network positions of high betweenness centrality as early as 2010. As international trade was increasingly dependent on only these two intermediary trade hubs, this fact led to geopolitical tensions such as the US–China trade war. Therefore, betweenness centrality could serve as a structural indicator, forewarning of possible upcoming geopolitical tensions. The US–China trade bipolarity is also strongly present in self-weights, where a race in terms of their intrinsic robustness to exogenous shocks is more than evident. It is also interesting that the US and China are not only the top shock spreaders but also the most susceptible to shocks. However, China can act more as a shock spreader than a shock receiver, while for the USA, the opposite is true. Regarding the impact of geopolitics, we found that the Russia–Ukraine conflict forced Ukraine to diversify both its exports and imports, aiming to lower its vulnerability to possible shocks. Finally, we found that international trade is becoming increasingly oligopolistic, even when indirect trade relationships are taken into account, thus indicating that a “Deep Oligopoly” has formed.

Impact of the United States-China Trade War Through Indonesian Macroeconomic Studies on the LQ-45 Stock Index

This study aims to analyze the impact of the trade war between the United States and China through Indonesian macroeconomic studies on the LQ-45 stock index in the short and long term. The research method used in this study is a quantitative method. Data collection in this study was obtained online in the form of data on several macroeconomic subsectors. The analysis method used in this study is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to examine the impact caused in the short and long term. The results of this study show that in the short term, only the LQ-45 variable has a self-influence, while in the long term, all variables have an impact on LQ-45. Positive effects were observed from the FED Rate, and Exports, while negative effects were seen from the BI Rate, CNY Rate, USD Rate, and Imports.

Shifting risk preferences of foreign institutional investors on corporate social responsibility amidst the U.S.-China trade war

Shifting risk preferences of foreign institutional investors on corporate social responsibility amidst the U.S.-China trade war