Trade Operations Research Articles

Carry Trade and Capital Market Returns in South Africa

This paper assesses the extent to which carry trade operations affect the performance of equity and bond markets in a target country, South Africa, by considering the US and the euro area as the funding countries. A two- and three-factor capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is employed to assess whether the pricing of equity and bond markets in South Africa depends on the US dollar/rand and euro/rand carry trade returns. Moreover, the paper uses the quantile regression technique to assess whether this pricing varies with the distribution of the equity and bond returns. The findings support that the US- and euro-funded carry trade are essential factors for the pricing of equity and bond markets in South Africa. Moreover, the results of the two-factor model show a negative relationship between the equity excess return and the US-carry trade returns at lower quantiles of the equity market returns. The positive relationship is observed in the upper quantiles of the equity market. The negative relationship means that carry trade activities reduce equity market returns during a bear market as investors close out their position when conditions in the equity market become unfavourable. The results of the three-factor model, controlling for the global volatility or uncertainty, show that carry trade investors exit the equity market to invest in the bond market when global uncertainty rises. This finding shows that carry trade investors choose less risky assets during rising global uncertainty.

Multi-microgrid low-carbon economy operation strategy considering both source and load uncertainty: A Nash bargaining approach

In order to realize the effective use of energy and promote the full consumption of renewable energy, the microgrid integrated by distributed resources has the potential of resource sharing as independent stakeholders. While, the traditional multi-microgrid interconnection ignores the information privacy of each microgrid, moreover, the cooperation strategy often cannot achieve a fair and reasonable distribution of benefits. Based on this, this paper firstly establishes a microgrid model for the coordination of three energy forms of electricity, heat, and gas. Secondly, considering the actual situation involving uncertainties on both sides of the source and load, robust interval optimization is used to achieve better robustness. Then, combined with the increasingly important low-carbon operation goal, a combined heat and power (CHP) model integrating power to gas (P2G) and carbon capture systems (CCS) is constructed, and the goal of emission reduction is achieved through the carbon trading operation mechanism. Finally, based on the Nash bargaining theory, a multi-microgrid Peer-to-Peer(P2P) low-carbon economic operation model is established, and the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) with good convergence and privacy is used to decomposed the original problem into two sub-problems to solve.

Annual Update on SDR Trading Operations

Annual Update on SDR Trading Operations

Blockchain

The world as we know it was shaped by technological innovation. A new technology, Blockchain, that allows digital records and information to be shared securely and transparently. It can carry out transactions with a high level of security and have a significant impact on trade operations, reducing fraud and improving traceability and strengthening trust in value chains.Paperless trade, blockchain uniqueness, digital documentation, all these have brought huge benefits to many developing countries, as the successful implementation of the single window principle in Singapore, Korea and Mexico. It's a "battle of the technologies" aimed at convincing governments that blockchain is the superior technology. Blockchain technology (like many other technologies) is maturing.

The Conceptual Framework for Disabling Payment in International Trade Under the Jordanian Legal System

The past few years have witnessed a widespread movement of goods between parties in different states by utilizing letters of credit. Letter of credit has continued to play a massive role in expanding international trade since it is considered the most secure and stable banking service through which banks can finance foreign trade operations such as import and export. Although a letter of credit is regarded as a guarantee for the buyer and seller according to the Uniform Custom and Practice (UCP 600). Still, if the parties have to face some circumstances, they can withhold their obligation or even breach the L/C contract. This study aims to identify the reason behind stopping the payment for the beneficiary in the L/C. Through a qualitative and doctrinal legal approach, this study analyses the organization of UCP 600 regarding the compliance standards and the fraud exception. It also examines, via interviews with Jordanian bankers, academicians, and judges, the perceptions of the exception for stopping the payment in L/C transactions. The findings reveal that the Jordanian judiciary does not take avoidance and nullity of the underlying contract, conscionability, recklessness, contractual restrictions, and illegality as exceptions to the independence principle in the letter of credit.

Bridging the gap between trade operators and consumers to better understand the U.S. wine market: A simultaneous application of discrete choice experiments

This study proposes an approach for bridging the gap between B2B and B2C research by showing how a method commonly used to understand consumer preferences – Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) – can be applied to examine choice drivers in a B2B context. Few studies have analysed consumer choices and, simultaneously, whether trade operators' choices towards the same product match. A DCE was created by combining 11 product attributes important to wine choice. The resulting choice sets were distributed among representative samples of 1,762 U.S. wine consumers and 423 U.S. wine trade operators, who were asked to complete the same task. First, the results show that the product choices of consumers and those made by trade operators across the two separate samples can be quantitatively compared, which only a handful of studies have attempted in the past. Second, a Latent Class Analysis (LCA) affirms the presence of three significantly different segments among both consumers and trade operators. These segments' choices are comparable pairwise by the relative importance respondents assign to the choice drivers. The segments are only marginally significantly different in relation to the socio-demographics of consumers or the business characteristics of trade operators.

Timing Profits to Realize Gains with $1,000: Evidence from Five-Year Prices of Bitcoin and Gold

Quantitative investment methods use mathematical models to estimate the price trends of financial assets based on their historical movements and to accurately choose the best time to trade, enhancing returns and their stability. In this paper, we construct quantitative investment models and strategies and practice them in a five-year portfolio of cash, gold and bitcoin, achieving considerable returns. To form a complete investment strategy, two main models are required, namely, one to forecast prices of gold and bitcoin, and one to decide on specific trading operations. To forecast prices, ARIMA-GARCH models group is firstly built. In the method of price forecasting using time series analysis, the ARIMA time series model can grasp the dynamic pattern and trend of prices. However, according to the empirical data, it is found that it is difficult to reflect the price volatility characteristics using ARIMA model forecasting. Therefore, we consider the conditional heteroskedasticity GARCH model to reflect the volatility of the time series in practice. In this section, we use the data given in the topic to construct a hybrid model ARIMA (4,1,4)-GARCH (1,1) by combining the ARIMA model with the GARCH model to forecast the price of gold and the price of bitcoin. After forecasting of the future prices of gold and bitcoin, we apply a dynamic program model to design the specific daily investment strategies based on the prediction. We divide the investment strategies into whether to trade a certain asset and how much to trade. In the specific discussion of each case, we introduce qualifying conditions from the perspective of risk and trading rules, and determine the amount of trading by solving the objective function under the qualifying conditions to form a complete investment strategy. Setting a 10% cap on our gold position and a 90% cap on our bitcoin position without changing transaction fees, our portfolio ends up at $37370.91 after 5 years, with an ideal ROI of 3637.09%, an IRR of 205.19%. For complementary, we conduct sensitivity analysis. To study the impact of transaction costs on total returns, we change the transaction costs of gold and bitcoin 1% at a time simultaneously and calculate the change in expected returns, while using two models, the normalized coefficient method and the shapley value decomposition method, to determine the sensitivity of the transaction costs of both to total returns. It is finally shown that the higher the transaction cost, the lower the return; bitcoin’s transaction cost is more sensitive and contributes more. At the end of the paper, we present evidence that our model provides a better strategy by proving the ARIMA-GARCH model has the ability to forecast prices more accurately.

Особенности формирования спроса и предложения на рынке электронной коммерции

The research is devoted to the identification and analysis of factors and principles that determine the features of the sustainable formation of supply and demand in the e-commerce market. The key factors of e-commerce development are highlighted. The signs of digital division of the development level and accessibility of digital technologies are given in relation to countries, regions, territories, firms, households. The strategic principles for the formation of sustainable demand and supply of e-commerce are analyzed and their unified, interrelated, complementary and interdependent essence is noted. The significance of the conversion rate as a special strategic condition and evaluation criterion is indicated. The weak points of trading via the Internet, directly constraining the growth of demand are analyzed. The influence of the productive forces development level on the content of goods and services and on the means used to maintain or carry out trade operations is noted. It is proposed to take into account the development level of productive forces as a basic component of the formation of supply in the digital commerce market. The objective need for large-scale investments to adapt to new market needs is substantiated. The growth of the importance of search engines in promoting the demand for e-commerce market services is predicted. The importance of coupling consumer behavior in the e-commerce market with the institutional and regulatory framework is emphasized.

Decomposing the effect of trade on environment: a case study of Pakistan.

Using time-series data from 1984 to 2019, the study examines the vigorous trade-environment relation in Pakistan. Pakistan is an interesting case study in which trade liberalization has expanded economic activity while also increasing environmental pollution during the last two decades. As a result, determining whether trade and industrial operations have contributed to environmental degradation is crucial. Our first goal is to look at how trade affects the environment in terms of scale, composition, and technique. The second step is to look into the pollution haven theory. The study uses a new approach to measuring trade openness called composite trade intensity, which differs from the traditional approach. The dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) simulation framework, which was recently developed, was employed. The findings show that the scale impact raises CO2 emissions while the technique effect helps to lessen them, proving the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. The composition impact contributes to increased pollution in the environment. Through the expansion of pollution-intensive export businesses, trade openness degrades environmental quality over the long as well as in the short term. The notion of a pollution hypothesis has also been proven. The quality of the environment deteriorates as a result of urbanization, whereas it improves as a result of good governance. Economic growth, trade openness, urbanization, and CO2 emissions have bidirectional causality, according to frequency domain causality findings. Based on our empirical findings, the study concludes that individual efforts, as well as collective efforts at the international level to reduce carbon emissions, are critical to solving the problem of environmental degradation and making the world a completely peaceful place.

METHOD FOR DETERMINATION OF THE BENCHMARK FREIGHT CUSTOMS COMPLEX TAKING INTO ACCOUNT TRANSPORT MARKET PARTICIPANTS` INTERESTS IN INTERNATIONAL ROAD TRANSPORTATION

The paper aims to substantiate the choice of a freight customs complex for customs and logistics services in the delivery of goods in different customs regimes. The proposed development will allow all stakeholders to determine the feasibility of cooperation both relying on the indicators of an individual freight customs complex and in comparison with others based on the assessment of the technical and operational performance of the infrastructure facility. Methods. We carried out a multicriteria assessment of the efficiency of freight customs complexes on the basis of a simulation model developed in the GPSS software environment. Results. Entities engaged in foreign economic activities turn to freight customs complexes to meet their needs for customs and logistics services guided by requirements arising under individual operating conditions. The choice of an infrastructure facility is influenced by some criteria and performance indicators that are formed and determined in comparison with competing organizations. Scientific novelty. The developed method of determining the benchmark freight customs complex will be useful for identifying the optimal conditions for cooperation with infrastructure facilities, taking into account the interests of transport market participants in specific conditions of foreign trade operations based on the assessment of their technical and operational performance. Practical implications. The practical significance of the paper is that the proposed method will allow customers of customs and logistics services to get recommendations for the choice of a freight customs complex to get serviced based on the assessment of the technical and operational performance of the infrastructure facility; customs authorities will be able to analyze the operation of existing freight customs complexes to determine the optimal number of employees needed to ensure the operation of customs checkpoints on the territory of freight customs complexes; the owner of a freight customs complex has the opportunity to discover «bottlenecks» in the operation of the infrastructure facility and take measures to eliminate them, as well as to determine its advantages and disadvantages as compared to competitors.

Внешняя торговля Британской Индии на рубеже XIX–XX вв. (по материалам дипломатических представительств России)

Introduction. The history of British Raj’s foreign economic activity development at the turn of the 20th century remains somewhat understudied both in Russian and foreign historiography. Since the 1880s, India significantly increased foreign trade to become Asia’s leader in this regard. Goals. The paper aims at examining dynamics of India’s export-import operations and foreign trade by countries. Materials and methods. The article analyzes reports and accounts of Russian diplomats to have worked in British Raj, the Near East, and Great Britain. The employed research methods include the historical/genetic, comparative historical, and historical/typological ones. Results. Britain had been India’s dominating trading partner. However, gradually other states also increased trade operations with the latter, especially import ones. The paper emphasizes Russia failed to become a key foreign trade partner of British Raj (except for export of kerosene and import of tea). The identified reasons are contentious British-Russian relations in Central Asia in the 1860s–1890s, poor knowledge of the Indian market, and geographical remoteness. British Raj turned an outpost of Great Britain’s economic strength in the Persian Gulf. At the same time, Indian goods displaced products from other countries — including Britain manufactured ones — in many ports of the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula. The article stresses that the bulk of India’s foreign economic relations were maintained via maritime transport. This was due to complicated natural and climatic factors along land borders, instability in frontiers (Afghanistan and Persia). Nonetheless, British Raj was increasing its economic presence in Afghanistan, Persia, Nepal, Ceylon, Siam, and western provinces of China. An important place in India’s foreign trade was occupied by transit trade and re-export of goods from other states, which makes it difficult to accurately determine the actual volume of its foreign trade. Conclusions. The specifics of India’s national economic development can thus be traced in the structure of its foreign trade. The exports were dominated by raw materials and foodstuffs; manufactured products were only making their way to foreign markets. The difficulties were largely associated with the Great Britain’s colonial policy in India since the former sought to keep using the latter as a market for industrial products produced in the British Isles. On the eve of WW I, British Raj was building up its economic potential through strengthening its positions in world trade.

Conceptual fundamentals of audit in the management of foreign economic activity

The article substantiates that the most reliable and effective mechanism for timely detection of various violations and manipulations in the accounting system of business entities that carry out foreign trade operations is a well-established system of audit of foreign economic activity. The work is devoted to a comprehensive study of the factors influencing the audit of foreign economic activity and highlighting its principles, rules and restrictions for the development of a comprehensive program of audit of foreign economic transactions and recommendations for improving its individual areas. Based on the results of the study of the peculiarities of foreign economic activity, the article groups the factors that affect the audit of foreign trade transactions. The most important ones are: participation in foreign trade operations of non-residents; duration of foreign trade operations; foreign currency settlements; cost centers; the global COVID-19 pandemic; features of "customs audit"; the need to form a CbC report; tax risk assessment. It is proved that the basis of the methodology and organization of the audit of foreign economic activity is its defining principles. Having studied the main provisions of regulations and the basic principles of auditing, highlighted in the scientific literature, they were adapted to the peculiarities of the audit of foreign economic activity. The principles of foreign economic activity audit are grouped into 8 groups: general, ethical, regulatory, organizational, methodological, professional, economic and technical. The general principles of foreign economic activity audit are decisive for audits of any areas of accounting and financial reporting. Adherence to ethical auditing principles is a determining factor in maintaining the reputation of any audit firm. At each stage of the audit, the auditor must adhere to regulatory principles, namely: the application of standards, self-regulation of the profession, compliance with the law, the contractual basis of the relationship. It is proved that at the planning stage the organizational principles of FEA audit are of special importance. Adherence to the methodological principles of the FEA audit allows the auditor to adapt the tools of the sample survey to the specifics of foreign trade operations. Adherence to professional principles will allow you to achieve the highest standards of professionalism and the best results of the audit. Economic principles determine the financial, material and other constraints in the relationship between the subject of foreign economic activity and the audit firm. In terms of information science, the audit requires appropriate information support and compliance with technical principles. The researched conceptual principles of FEA audit should be constantly taken into account during the development of the plan, comprehensive program, tests of audit of foreign economic operations and recommendations for improving its individual areas.

ROLE OF CUSTOMS OF STEPPS IN REALIZATION OF PRODUCTS OF CATTLE BREEDING

The article reveals the role of customs in the transportation of livestock products from the Kazakh Steppe. The history of trade and economic relations between the Russian Empire and Kazakhstan is an object of study for both Russian and domestic historians. In the regulation of foreign economic activity in the 19th century, the role of customs was significant. They regulated not only trade and economic, but also political processes. It was the Asian direction that became dominant in the foreign policy of the Russian Empire. The article focuses on the main areas of trade. The most significant customs points through which trade operations were carried out have been identified. Statistical and archival data on the problem under study are given. Trade relations were of great importance not only for Kazakhstan, but also for Russia. The importance of individual customs is revealed. In the article, a special role is given to barter trade, fairs. The most significant centers of fair trade are singled out. In the development of trade relations a huge role was played by the transport industry. The transportation of goods was mainly carried out by the Kazakhs. This occupation became one of the main ones, which made it possible for the indigenous population to earn money.

İhracatta Ulusal ve Uluslararası Pazarlama İstihbaratı Kaynakları - Elektronik Veritabanları ve Faydalı Linkler

Trade is a phenomenon that is based on both social and economic arguments and has shaped human life since the first ages. In its most general definition, trade; it is possible to define it as the exchange of goods, services or information with money, another good, service or information. The international positions of the parties in the aforementioned barter transaction necessitate defining the trade as international trade or foreign trade. Although it is wrong to consider foreign trade as a separate phenomenon from trade; the complex nature of the transactions in the foreign trade flow emphasizes the importance of the information that the parties should have and the intelligence quality of the information. This study examines the information they need from the infrastructure preparation process of their organizations to foreign trade regulations and practices, from product, market and customer profile research to market entry strategies, from the document issue, which has a very important place in the foreign trade workflow, to various payment methods, while managing their foreign trade operations. focuses on marketing intelligence resources that can respond to information needs. It is not possible for foreign trade operations not to be adversely affected by the measures taken by countries during the Covid-19 pandemic we are in. For this reason, the importance of desk research and electronic databases, which have an important place in the management of today's foreign trade operations, needs more emphasis than in previous periods. In order to limit the scope of the research, the intelligence sources included in the study are discussed in terms of export practices, which are frequently associated with economic growth in the literature.

Assessing timber trade middlemen for development policy actions: a case study in the Caraga region, Philippines

The timber trade middlemen are examined in this work to understand their functions, work conditions and work outcomes in the Caraga Region (Philippines) for development insights. Investigative practice and comparative observation were the approaches used to assess these middlemen. The results exhibit the essential role of the timber trade middlemen from log cutting to log delivery and in the regularity of timber trade operations across Caraga Region. Merchant middlemen, agent middlemen and service providers are the three general middlemen types observed. The service providers have the largest number and composition with six subtypes. Further results show that the purchase order holders (merchant middlemen) can profit largely (more than 20%) from the buy and sell of logs. The timber trade middlemen’s work conditions have issues with personal security, occupational safety, price uncertainty and transparency. They have been involved “incognito” in timber trade operations, rendering some of them vulnerable and less protected in the timber supply chain. Policy actions to enhance transparency and recognize properly these middlemen for the safe conduct of their businesses, for further skills development, for their organization in the timber industry, and for incentivizing their services properly are recommended for the sustainable development of the timber supply chain in Caraga Region.

COVID-19 pandemic: The world's export credit agencies' response to the economic downturn

Subject. This article discusses the role of export credit agencies (ECA) in dealing with the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Objectives. The article aims to assess the effectiveness of the application of ECA's comprehensive credit and insurance tools to support foreign trade operators in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. For the study, we used the comparative, statistical, and formal and logical methods. Results. The article describes the support measures taken by the ECA aimed at increasing the flexibility of export credit insurance conditions, increasing the availability of financing in response to the economic shock associated with the pandemic. It identifies the most relevant trends in the development of ECA during the crisis period and the key role of ECA as part of the State foreign economic policy. Conclusions. The crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic reveals the need to strengthen ECA cooperation with private insurance companies within the framework of public-private partnerships. There is also a need to accelerate the development of ECA in the field of digitalization, which will contribute to improving service for customers, creating popular insurance products, as well as increasing the operational performance of the ECA themselves.

Integration of Electric Vehicles into Microgrids: Policy Implication for the Industrial Application of Carbon Neutralisation in China

With the dynamic development of renewable energies, energy storage devices, and electric vehicles, microgrids have been playing an increasingly vital role in smart power grids. Under the recent development of carbon neutralisation, microgrid systems containing multiple clean energy sources have become significant modules for energy conservation and emission reduction. Considering technological and environmental elements, we investigated the economic operation of microgrids with the integration of electric vehicles. In this paper, carbon trading mechanisms and operation scheduling strategies are analysed in the simulation models. Then, transaction costs and power balance are discussed. Industrial applications and policy implications are also presented.

Jim Downs, Maladies of Empire: How Colonialism, Slavery and War Transformed Medicine

In Maladies of Empire, Jim Downs looks beyond John Snow’s London to rethink the violent structures of knowledge that created modern epidemiology. He does so by marshalling an array of sources across eight case studies. Though distinct to their populations, aetiologies, and environments, they have several things in common. Namely, most of them served as precedents for the US Sanitary Counsel’s response to a smallpox epidemic during the US Civil War. Downs argues that these episodes ‘changed the medical profession's understanding of disease transmission,’ by which he means the medical profession in much of the United States and Britain (p.6). Though framed as a global history of medicine, slavery, and empire, Downs’ arguments hold greater purchase when read through this narrower analytical scope. Indeed, many of the interventions he claims in this regard are well established, if uncited in the book. A notable omission is the work of Philip Curtin, who argued over fifty years ago that epidemiology has its beginnings in the slave trade.1 By staking this claim, Curtin paved the way for medical historians of slavery, explicating the centrality of disease to the operation of the slave trade and the racialization of both by medical practitioners and slavery advocates. Yet Curtin’s understanding of epidemiology was narrowly framed through a demographic and statistical approach to disease. A wealth of sources and studies has since prompted historians to examine the very epistemological assumptions, values, and logics of seemingly self-contained fields like epidemiology. It would have been exciting to see how the social historical approach that Downs brings to his rich source material might challenge and build on this canonical study.

Big Data analytics for privacy through ND-homomorphic encryption

Rapidly rising the quantity of Big Data is an opportunity to flout the privacy of people. When high processing capacity and massive storage are required for Big Data, distributed networks have been used. There are several people involved in these activities, the system may contribute to privacy infringements frameworks have been developed for the preservation of privacy at various levels (e.g. information age, information the executives and information preparing) as for the existing pattern of huge information. We plan to frame this paper as a literature survey of these classifications, including the Privacy Processes in Big Data and the presentation of the Associate Challenges. Homomorphic encryption is particularised aimed at solitary single action on the ciphered information. Homomorphic enciphering is restrained to an honest operation on the encoded data. The reference to encryption project fulfils many accurate trading operations on coded numerical data; therefore, it protects the written in code-sensible information even more.

For Export: Buildings for Colonial Commerce in the Asia Pacific

ABSTRACT A lasting legacy of 19th-century colonialism in the Pacific and Southeast Asia is the fragmented historiography of the region’s colonial architecture. Historical studies of the built environment continue to adopt geographical frameworks corresponding to nation-states that emerged from colonial empires, overlooking the region’s intricate interconnectivity in the late nineteenth century. The establishment of industrial agriculture and commercial shipping routes opened up territories facilitating movement of goods, labour, capital and ideas. Crossing colonial boundaries, networks developed by commercial entities transformed the Asia Pacific region, leaving behind traces in buildings for trade, travel and export-oriented agriculture. This paper focuses on the architectural infrastructure of the interregional operations of the Australian firm Burns Philp, particularly its engagement with large-scale agricultural production: kapok manufacture in Java, copra estates in the Pacific, and wool production in Australia. Trade operations of Burns Philp and other major shipping companies including the Dutch Koninklijke Paketvaart-Maatschappij facilitated not only industrialisation of agriculture in Asia Pacific but also the development of tourism. Drawing on two collections of nineteenth- and early twentieth-century photographs of the Pacific and Southeast Asia, the paper examines images of mostly anonymous commercial built forms and reflects on how their production was informed by interconnectivity and movement.