Trade Of Countries Research Articles

Access to Justice: A Taxonomy of Conflict and Dispute Phases

The existence of conflicts and disputes in consumer trade has great implications for many parties because its effects can affect the current situation of consumers and the country's trade sector. Dispute resolution bodies that are procedural, ethical and have their own positive values, need to play a role in dealing with disputes brought by the parties involved. Traditionally and in practice for centuries, the court has an important function to administer and uphold the law by hearing any dispute filed according to the established procedure. This privilege, however, did not last long because consumer trade disputes changed direction by choosing alternatives and other forms of resolution mechanisms that more suit their needs, such as various Alternative Dispute Resolutions (ADR) mechanisms. This paper employs a qualitative research method to achieve the objective in discussing several theories of conflict and disputes analyse by several prominent experts. Various types of conflict theories that lead to several forms of disputes and a variety of management techniques or responses to control them from continuing are also detailed. For consumer trade disputes, the history and background of access to justice for consumers was also studied to get the real scenario of disputes that consumers often face, especially in the current era.

Does Reduced Dwelling Time Leads To Higher Tax Revenue? The Important Role Of Government Effectiveness In ASEAN-5

This study aims to analyze the factors that affect tax revenue on international trade in ASEAN-5 countries. Data was obtained from The World Bank and analyzed using panel data regression. Variables used in this study are tax revenue on international trade, import growth, dwelling time, and government effectiveness. The results show that import growth, dwelling time, import growth that has been moderated by government effectiveness, and dwelling time that has been moderated by government effectiveness simultaneously affect tax revenue on international trade. Partially, import growth, dwelling time, and government effectiveness have a positive effect on tax revenue on international trade. However, when moderated by government effectiveness, import growth and dwelling time show a negative effect on tax revenue on international trade. The recommendation from this study is for the government to improve the quality of public services in the process of loading and unloading goods. Effective public services at ports and airports, balanced with efforts to reduce dwelling time, will increase tax revenue on international trade. The steps that the government can take are to simplify business processes at the port, for example, joint inspection between customs and quarantine authorities. In addition, the government needs to sterilize port and airport areas so that unauthorized parties do not hinder the flow of goods in and out. Public service improvements can also be made in other sectors because they have a significant impact on increasing tax revenue on international trades.

Evolution of New Energy Minerals Trade Pattern and Analysis of China’s Status Evolution

Copper, cobalt, nickel as the key raw materials for the new energy automobile industry, the supply and demand of resources and international trade are largely affected by the world economy and political pattern, and the risks and vulnerabilities of the resource industry chain are highlighted. Using the method of complex network to analyze the trade network of three kinds of mineral resources from the perspective of industrial chain, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) the global trade network of three kinds of new energy minerals in the whole industrial chain all presents the characteristics of complexity and connection enhancement, and has the characteristics of the network of the small world; (2) China has become an important hub in the global trade network of copper, cobalt, and nickel, and has a stronger ability to control the trade of other countries.

Electricity grids and geopolitics: A game-theoretic analysis of the synchronization of the Baltic States’ electricity networks with Continental Europe

Can supply of electricity be used as an energy weapon? This question rises in importance as more countries trade electricity across borders to smooth out grid stability issues and improve cost-efficient dispatching across large geographic areas. In the context of the Baltics’ disentanglement from the BRELL (Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) electricity grid and synchronization with Europe, we develop a game-theoretic model and examine the strategies of the involved parties in light of the potential for electricity trade to be used as a geopolitical weapon. We conceptualize the process of the synchronization project as a sequential-move game between three actors (Russia, the Baltic states, and the EU-U.S.). Our findings suggest that, in large part due to reputational concerns, Russia is unlikely to cooperate in the synchronization process. Instead, our model predicts that Russia will not wait for the Baltic states to complete their synchronization with the European grid before disconnecting them from the BRELL system. Direct Russian cyberattacks against Baltic grids are not implemented and the Baltics do not have to make concessions, provided that Western allies signal a strong likelihood of deterrent retaliation. We offer policy recommendations for Europe, Russia and the Baltic states.

Energy imports and manufacturing exports with successive oligopolies and storage

Many industrial countries run a “business model” that is based on oligopolistic export industries which strongly depend on energy imports. This paper uses an analytically tractable general equilibrium model of international trade with successive oligopolies and storage to analyze optimum trade and industrial policies for such countries. There can be over-investment in storage for strategic reasons. Despite double marginalization, there is a non-zero optimum level of market concentration for the domestic industry. The optimum import tariff is most likely positive. Subsidies to storage and reduced use of long term contracts usually raise domestic welfare.

The Effect of Financial Development, Tariff, and RTA on Exports: A Structural Gravity Analysis

This paper examines the effect of financial development (FD), tariffs, and RTA on bilateral exports in a structural gravity framework. Applying high-dimensional fixed effects in OLS and PPML estimation technique in a panel framework covering 169 countries over 2001-2017, this paper finds that FD of both exporters and importers are an important determinant for boosting exports. The EIA has the most trade creation effect than any other form of RTA. Importers' FD has a larger effect on bilateral exports for developed to developed and developed and developing country trade than that of the exporters. The trade between developing to developing countries is positively affected by both exporters' and importers' FD; and negatively to a larger extent by tariff measures. However, in the case of developing and developed country estimation, FD of the exporter country is significantly affecting bilateral trade. Tariffs significantly distort trade, largely between developing and developed countries.

Toward a Greener Future: Investigating the Environmental Quality of Non-Green Trading in OECD Countries

International trade is recognized as a key contributor to environmental degradation. However, researchers and policymakers do not distinguish between the trade of green and non-green products. The Non-Green Trade Openness Index was developed to examine the effect of non-green products on environmental quality. This study examines the effect of trading non-green products on environmental quality for 37 member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) from 2003 to 2016 in the context of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework. The results of the long-run estimation techniques employed (FMOLS, DOLS, Fixed and Random effects) confirm the EKC hypothesis and show a negative relationship between the Non-Green Trade Openness Index and greenhouse gas emissions, which serves as a proxy for environmental quality. This implies that when there is more non-green trade in OECD member countries, greenhouse gas emissions within these countries decrease. Dividing green and non-green products is important, empowering practitioners and policymakers to make informed choices and define a strategy for a sustainable future. Additionally, policy recommendations are provided to support policymakers in their efforts to combat climate change.

Does financial development and institutional quality matter in South-South Trade? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

This study re-evaluates the determinants of international trade in the global south, focusing on intra- and extra-SSA trade while considering financial development and institutional quality as additional predictors. It also examines whether these factors differ for south-south and north–south trade ties. We used a 22-years (ranging from 2000 to 2021) panel of 98 countries (41 from the SSA and the remaining from the ROW). A panel gravity model with Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation is used for the analysis. The results show that financial development in origin and destination countries boosts intra-trade in SSA countries, and the developed financial sector of the destination countries contributes to both intra-bloc and international trade. Financial development of exporting countries also spurs intra-bloc trade in SSA countries and the global south. In addition, apart from common expectations, the institutional quality of exporting countries plays a deterrent role, while the institutional quality of destination countries plays a positive and significant role in trade in the global south. We identified the interaction term for financial development and institutional quality of the exporting countries with a significant and positive coefficient for the global south and the global north, and null for intra-SSA trade. For destination countries, it becomes significantly positive with SSA and the global south but negative with the global north. The findings suggest that as part of the policy measures to boost intra-bloc trade in SSA and the global south, ensuring financial development needs better emphasis.

Article: Friends and Free Trade: How Indo-Pacific Countries Can Leverage the QUAD and I2U2 in Friendshoring

Recent disruptions in international relations and the international trading order have given rise to new innovations in the ways countries trade. In this regard, friend-shoring is emerging as a means to recast entrenched global supply chains in a manner that favours friends and allies. Through this paper, we seek to explore how Indo-Pacific countries particularly India, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Japan, Australia and the United States (US) can use friendshoring to integrate itself into global supply chains. Particularly, we focus on how these countries can leverage ‘minilaterals’ such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE. US) to collaborate on traditional as well as emerging areas of trade and gain from the strengths of these trading partners. In doing so, we look at free trade agreements (FTA) and regional agreements that exist between these countries, to examine if the same may be channelized to further friendshoring. We also study major collaborations that are taking shape amongst these countries. friend-shoring, QUAD, I2U2, IMEEC, minilaterals

Analysis of the Trade Network of Global Wood Forest Products and its Evolution from 1995 to 2020

Abstract Global trade of wood forest products is a complex system, and its flow between trading countries forms a trade network of wood forest products. The transmission efficiency of the trade network largely depends on its network structure. The commonly used method in recent years to analyze the network structure is complex network analysis. Therefore, this study used the complex network method, through using kernel density curves every 5 years to show distribution changes of complex network indictors to study the evolution of the trade network of global trade of wood forest products, based on trade data from 1995 to 2020. The results show that the trade relationship between countries is deepening. Compared with resource-based wood forest products, the trade of deeply processed wood forest products is larger in scale, more complex in structure, and more closely linked. The core countries in global wood forest products trade mainly comprise North American and European countries, while several developing countries in Asia with abundant forest and labor endowments are gradually joining the core tier and jointly control the trade market. We also revealed the intervention of world forestry development goals and national forestry policies on changes to trade structure and trade groups.

THE REFORM OF DISPUTE SETTLEMENT SYSTEM OF THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION: CONTRIBUTION AND PERSPECTIVES FROM INDONESIA

The WTO dispute settlement system is currently in crisis as the Appellate Body has been unable to perform its appellate review since December 11th, 2019. The US asserted that the AB has exceeded its authority. The crisis can be detrimental, especially for developing countries in international trade. The WTO Members have made efforts to reform the system. This paper uses qualitative and descriptive research to analyse the contribution of Indonesia to the system and its perspectives on the reform negotiations.
 Indonesia has contributed to the system and the Organization by clarifying interpretations of WTO agreements. In the reform negotiations, Indonesia has actively participated by joining a proposal to commence the selection of new AB members, supporting the result of “Walker Process” negotiations as a basis for future negotiation, and making some proposals such as formal communication to the WTO on a process in an informal process to implement the mandate of MC12 Outcome Document. As a negotiation strategy, Indonesia should continue its active participation by prioritizing accessible aspects that are interests of developing and LDC members, emphasizing the need to limit negotiation scope and urging the fulfilment of the 2024 deadline, safeguarding a legalistic system, and conducting a comprehensive analysis on two-tier litigation.

An Empirical Study of the Determinants of Digital Trade Competitiveness in APEC Economies: Based on Porter’s Diamond Model

Purpose – This study aims to analyze the impact of each factor on the international competitiveness of digital trade by selecting nine major APEC digital trading countries based on Porter’s “Diamond Model”. Design/Methodology/Approach – Based on Porter’s “Diamond Model”, this study established indicators influencing the national competitiveness of nine APEC member countries, and panel analysis was conducted by selecting eight indicators, including digital trade exports (DTE), production factors, demand conditions, corporate organization, strategy and competition, related and supporting industry performance, and government and opportunities, as explanatory variables. Findings – According to the panel regression analysis results, among the explanatory variables, both the number of fixed infrastructure broadband subscribers (FBS) and services trade exports (CSE) had a significant positive effect on digital trade competitiveness. Research Implications – The development of digital trade is closely related to the support of various infrastructure facilities, and information and communication technology-based digital trade has to offer technical assurances and methods for data input and output for industrial development. Most traditional service industries in APEC member countries still account for a large proportion. The export growth of service trade heavily relies on the overall improvement of the competitiveness of the service trade. Therefore, it is necessary to seize the development opportunities of the service trade, expand the export market share of traditional service industries, and actively develop emerging modern service industries to promote the harmonious development of the overall service trade industry and enhance the international competitiveness of digital trade.

Effects of free trade on export efficiency of COMESA member-states

Regional integration in Africa is deepening, and the existing regional groupings are making frantic efforts to remove barriers to trade. One way in which trade among countries can be promoted is through the establishment of free trade areas with member-states. However, regulatory quality that supports international trade in most African countries is exceptionally low. This study investigates the effect of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) free trade area (FTA) on the bilateral export efficiency of member-states over the period 1997–2021. The results obtained using a stochastic frontier specification of the gravity model and panel data of 16 exporting COMESA member-states show a positive effect of the COMESA free trade area on export efficiency. In addition, the study finds regulatory quality to have a positive impact on export efficiency. Controlling for regulatory quality, the results also show that the FTA stimulates export efficiency. Hence, non-FTA COMESA members ought to contemplate joining the FTA in order to expand their respective exports with other member-states to their maximum potential.

Exploring the characteristics and drivers of virtual cropland trade of major agricultural products in China

The trade volume of agricultural products can be used to measure the global flow of virtual cropland. This paper measures the virtual cropland contained in 68 major agricultural products in China, analyzes the changes in China's virtual cropland from 2001 to 2020, and examines the main import and export agricultural product categories of virtual cropland and the main trading countries of virtual cropland. Meanwhile, according to the LMDI model, the driving factors of virtual cropland trade are categorized into five effects, and the driving factors of virtual cropland trade are discussed in depth. The main findings are as follows: the net value of virtual cropland trade is growing rapidly, the import of legume crops is the main source of the net value of virtual cropland trade, and the virtual cropland importing countries are dominated by European and American countries, and the exporting countries are dominated by Asian countries. As for the driving factors, the quality effect and the structural effect play a dampening effect on the net imports of virtual cropland, however, the dampening effect is relatively weak and cannot offset the promotion brought by the other effects. The economic effect is the main driver of virtual net imports of cropland, and the amount of trade in agricultural products also has an important role in promoting virtual imports of cropland, while the demand effect is not significant. It is suggested that China should correctly formulate reasonable cropland management policies and trade strategies, optimize the structure of virtual cropland trade, guarantee national food security and promote sustainable development.

Country characteristics and trade policy during the COVID‐19 pandemic

AbstractGovernment policy responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic often included changes to trade policies. This article uses detailed data on trade policy measures targeting medical products during the first 18 months of the pandemic (January 2020–June 2021) compiled by the Global Trade Alert to analyze the relationship between national trade policy activism and pre‐pandemic trade patterns, import protection and international integration. The focus is on both potential country‐specific drivers of unilateral trade policies and the duration of implemented measures. We find significant heterogeneity in the relationships between trade policy actions and country characteristics. The likelihood of import liberalization was more prevalent among net exporters of medical products, whereas net importers were more inclined to impose export restrictions. The results suggest trade policy responses to the challenges raised by the COVID‐19 pandemic are only partially explained by extant theory.

The potential of China's tea trade and how it affects China's economic growth

Tea is an essential commodity for China's agriculture trade, which faces fierce competition in the global tea trade. The export share of tea in China has a smaller proportion than other products, which means that it can influence on the economic growth or otherwise. This study aims to examine the potential destination countries for China's tea trade in the international market and its impact on economic growth. In this study, the panel-based gravity model was applied by identifying the potential destination countries for tea by using data of bilateral trade between China and 78 importing countries from 2010 to 2020. The Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) from 1991 to 2020 was used to evaluate the effect of China's tea export on economic growth. The result confirmed that 39 countries were identified as a potential destination for China's tea trade. A positive and significant effect of the tea trade on the country's economic growth in the long and short run was also found, particularly through export activity. China needs to increase the production of tea and to establish relations with the identified potential destination countries for tea exports in order to achieve a higher level of economic growth.

The Role of Russian Non-Resource Export in Technological Sovereignty Achievement of African Countries

The modern trends of world economic development include complicated digital and transformation processes, which create a wide range of risks and challenges to the actual positions of countries in the world architecture. Also, they open new opportunities for competitiveness and welfare improvement of any state or regional groups, in particular by their technological sovereignty creation. The share of African countries in the world trade accounts for 3%, however, the interest in this region, as a foreign trade partner, is increasing. This is driven by the intensity of considerable reserves of natural resources, existing and potential in the sphere of renewable energy sources and of local production involvement in global value chains. All this stimulates to elaborate on their own technologies, mitigating the extent of regional economic dependence on external factors. Thus, the African region continues to attract investors, and from this position, Russia is not the exception. At the moment, amid sanctions and diversification of export flows, African countries are actual for Russian producers and suppliers from the implementation process. This paper highlights the key positions of Russian non-resource commodities to African countries, defines the major markets of sales and also to analyze the role of Russian export in African countries’ technological sovereignty achievement.

Exchange rate prediction research based on LSTM-ELM hybrid model

The fluctuation of exchange rates holds paramount importance for a country's economic and trade activities. Due to the non-stationary and nonlinear structural characteristics of exchange rate time series, accurately predicting exchange rate movements is a challenging task. Single machine learning models often exhibit lower precision in exchange rate prediction compared to combined machine learning models. Hence, employing a combined model approach aims to enhance the predictive performance of exchange rate models. Both Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) exhibit intricate structures, making their direct integration challenging. To address this issue, an innovative weighted approach is adopted in this study, combining LSTM and ELM models and further refining the combination weights using an improved Marine Predators Algorithm. This paper encompasses both univariate and multivariate prediction scenarios, employing two distinct allocation strategies for training and testing datasets. This is done to investigate the influence of different dataset allocations on exchange rate prediction. Finally, the proposed LSTM-ELM weighted combination exchange rate prediction model is compared with SVM, Random Forest, ELM, LSTM, and LSTM-ELM average combination models. Experimental results demonstrate that the LSTM-ELM weighted combination exchange rate prediction model outperforms the others in both univariate and multivariate prediction settings, yielding higher predictive accuracy and superior fitting performance. Consequently, the LSTM-ELM weighted combination prediction model proves to be effective in exchange rate forecasting.

The Association between the Internet and Service Trade in the U.S.: A Panel Data Evidence

The development of the internet has reduced transaction costs for a several decades in international trade and consequently it facilitates trade in services. In this perspective, the study used panel data for the U.S. and its 37 trading countries from 2006 to 2021. This study empirically examines the impact of the development of the internet on service trade, service exports and service imports respectively by utilizing the gravity type model of trade. Regression results show that the internet has played an import role on accelerating service trade in the U.S. First, the results indicate that the development of the internet has positive and significant effects on service trade, service exports and imports. Secondly, the measured effect of the internet on the service exports is bigger than that of its effect on service trade and service imports. From this result, it can be seen that the development of the internet has contributed more to the increase in service exports than compared to that of service imports in the U.S. Consequently, this result provides the direction of government policy insight for the future to promote more service trade and in turn lead to more service account surplus in the U.S.

The Economic and Geopolitical Implications of China's Belt and Road Initiative in Eastern Europe: A Case Study on Serbia

This paper critically analyses the economic and geopolitical consequences of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on Serbia. The primary focus is on the initiative's effects on the country's infrastructure development, employment, and trade sectors. The study adopts a positivist research ethic and employs a deductive technique. It utilizes quantitative methodologies by administering an online survey to 350 practitioners actively engaged in BRI projects in Serbia. The data analysis was conducted using the SPSS program. The research findings demonstrate that the infrastructure investment and employment generation associated with the BRI have had notable positive impacts on Serbia's economic and geopolitical development. Moreover, it has been discovered that trade dynamics with China have the potential to bolster economic growth and foster positive geopolitical relations. Nevertheless, the study admits many limitations, including a restricted sample size and the lack of qualitative data. Future study recommendations encompass the need for enhanced stakeholder engagement on a wider scale and the implementation of longitudinal studies to effectively capture the dynamic and evolving impacts over time.