Trade Crisis Research Articles

Shocking shortage: the electrical trade crisis in the Eastern Cape, South Africa

This study examines the shortage of professional electricians in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, exploring the root causes, consequences, and potential solutions. Using an interpretivist paradigm and inductive approach, qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with local electricians were analysed through thematic analysis. Findings indicate that inadequate training opportunities and low industry awareness are major contributors to this shortage, leading to an increased presence of unqualified electricians. The analysis identified three primary themes: causes, including insufficient training and awareness; consequences, such as diminished industry standards and rising unqualified practitioners; and potential solutions centred on educational reform and expanded vocational programs. While this study is limited to the Eastern Cape, it provides valuable insights that may inform similar regions, offering actionable recommendations for industry stakeholders. By addressing these training and awareness gaps, stakeholders can help reduce the shortage, enhance workforce skills, and improve overall industry standards. The research underscores the critical need for educational initiatives and awareness campaigns to counteract skilled labour shortages, emphasising that targeted strategies could stimulate sustainable workforce development. These findings contribute to a broader understanding of labour market dynamics in the construction sector, with particular relevance for the sustainable growth of skilled trades.

A Study on Illegal Wildlife Trade in Tanzania Based on Multi-source Data Fusion

This study on the illegal wildlife trade crisis in Tanzania is methodically divided into three phases: planning, policy, and application. Initially, data preprocessing methods such as null processing, interpolation, and max-min normalization were applied to construct a client impact assessment model utilizing AHP and hierarchical evaluation methods. WWF emerged as the most influential client. The policy phase introduced a comprehensive five-year strategy across economic, social, cultural, and environmental sectors. This strategy was supported by three quantitative models, which were used to evaluate the impact of the illegal wildlife trade. The economic model assessed the contribution to GDP growth from the integration of illegal trappers into the workforce. The social model applied crime economics to optimize time allocation under uncertainty. The cultural impact was measured through educational guidelines and a literacy score. Finally, environmental policies were analyzed by adjusting nature reserve areas and poaching difficulty parameter Z. In the application phase, Tanzania's National Forest Park was selected to serve as a pilot site for the models, with the projected outcomes including an increase in species richness and a reduction in poaching ease over a five-year period.

Foreign Trade as a Channel of Pandemic Transmission to the Agricultural Sector in Poland

The resilience of economic and social systems to shocks is one of the fundamental goals of sustainable development. One such event that seriously disrupted the global economy was the COVID-19 pandemic. It posed a direct threat to people’s health and lives and also caused an economic crisis. One of the effects of the crisis was the loss of stability in agricultural production with the resulting threat to food security. The foreign trade channel played a vital role in the mechanism of pandemic transmission to the agricultural sector in the world and Poland. This article aims to assess the significance of changes in international trade in agri-food commodities conducted by Polish entities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research period covers the years 2017–2021, focusing on the years 2020–2021, the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Such a research period allows comparative analyses during the pandemic and pre-pandemic periods. The following research methods are used in this study: a critical analysis of the literature, the descriptive approach, the comparative method, and verbal logic and descriptive statistical methods. The data used in this article come from the Central Statistical Office (CSO) and cover Poland’s foreign trade turnover according to the International Standard Trade Classification (SITC) used by the United Nations Statistics Department. The COVID-19 pandemic period did not cause a drastic collapse in Polish foreign trade. Short-lived blockages in the flow of goods, which appeared in Q2 2020, resulted in a 14% drop in the value of Polish exports. Already in Q3 2020, foreign trade turnover returned to pre-pandemic levels. In Q2 2020, the value of the exports of agri-food goods decreased by only 3%. For other commodity groups, the export values were 7–40% lower. Agri-food trade proved more resilient to pandemic shocks than trade in non-agricultural sectors. The foreign trade crisis affected the imports of goods more than exports.

Energy imports in turbulent eras: Evidence from China

The turbulent world situation is an urgent crisis in energy trade and may exacerbate regional energy tensions. This paper measures the links between geopolitical risks (GPR), economic policy uncertainties (EPU) and energy import (EI) from 2005:M3 to 2023:M3. We use the Wavelet-Based quantile-on-quantile (QQ) approach based on China's import statistics for the first time. The results show that both GPR and EPU are important factors affecting EI. We confirm the negative impact of GPR and EPU on EI in the short term, while EI tends to recover in the long run. The result is consistent with the theoretical mechanism that reflects the interrelationship between external uncertainties and EI. As a result, the government should advance diversified energy access options, timely adjustment of energy policies to respond to crises, increase energy reserves and actively undertake energy innovation to reduce external energy dependence.

Cross-country spillovers of trade uncertainty and their formation mechanisms

This paper extends the study of uncertainty issues to the field of international trade, systematically identifies trade uncertainty in 15 representative countries using the DF-SV model, and deeply explores the cross-country spillover effects and their formation mechanisms of international trade uncertainty. Empirical results indicate that trade uncertainties and their cross-country spillover effects are sensitive to major economic and trade crisis events, during which there is a widespread transnational transmission of trade uncertainties, particularly among economic and trade partners. Developed countries are often net givers of trade uncertainty spillovers, while developing countries are net receivers. Further research finds that in countries with greater economic openness, exchange rate fluctuations, and trade uncertainty, the spillover effects of trade uncertainty tend to be stronger. Meanwhile, enhancing a country's financial openness, exchange rate stability, and the stability of foreign trade can effectively mitigate the trade uncertainty that a country receives. Our work has significant practical significance for understanding and resisting the impacts of trade uncertainties from other countries and promoting stable global economic development.

A novel deep learning‐based bioacoustic approach for identification of look‐alike white‐eye (Zosterops) species traded in wildlife markets

The songbird trade crisis in East and South East Asia has been fuelled by high demand, driving many species to the brink of extinction. This demand, driven by the desire for songbirds as pets, for singing competitions and for prayer animal release has led to the overexploitation of numerous species and the introduction and spread of invasive alien species and diseases to novel environments. The ability to identify traded species efficiently and accurately is crucial for monitoring bird trade markets, protecting threatened species and enforcing wildlife laws. Citizen scientists can make major contributions to these conservation efforts but may be constrained by difficulties in distinguishing ‘look‐alike’ bird species traded in markets. To address this challenge, we developed a novel deep learning‐based Artificial Intelligence (AI) bioacoustic tool to enable citizen scientists to identify bird species traded in markets. To this end, we used three major avian vocalization databases to access bioacoustic data for 15 morphologically similar White‐eye (Zosterops) species that are commonly traded in Asian wildlife markets. Specifically, we employed the Inception v3 pre‐trained model to classify the 15 White‐eye species and ambient sound (i.e. non‐bird sound) using 448 bird recordings we obtained. We converted recordings into spectrogram (i.e. image form) and used eight image augmentation methods to enhance the performance of the AI neural network through training and validation. We found that recall, precision and F1 score increased as the amount of data augmentation increased, resulting in up to 91.6% overall accuracy and an F1 score of 88.8% for identifying focal species. Through the application of bioacoustics and deep learning, this approach would enable citizen scientists and law enforcement officials efficiently and accurately to identify prohibited trade in threatened species, making important contributions to conservation.

Strongholds of Liberalism? The Reaction of Regional Integration Institutions to the Pandemic Trade Crisis

ABSTRACT Regional integration institutions play an important but ambiguous role in the liberal international system, especially when it comes to trade policy. The Covid-19 pandemic generated a trade crisis, which gave them an opportunity to expand their role in a liberal or illiberal direction. An analysis of the framing and policy measures of five key regional institutions in Europe, South America, Africa and Asia will demonstrate whether they were geared towards liberalisation and/or interventionism in early 2020. The European Union stood out for its strong collective action on trade, working out a new balance between interventionism and liberalism. Other institutions hinted at interventionism but did not take collective action. The trade response was overwhelmingly state-driven, and regional institutions outside Europe clearly have limited agency in the global trade system. While their behaviour is difficult to qualify ideologically, their framing supported liberal principles of international relations.

A Sustainable Opportunity to Re-Inhabit Traditional Buildings in Italy: Energy Efficiency Actions End Fiscal Incentives

In recent decades, the Italian building trade has recorded an increasing interest in the renovation and improvement of both listed and unlisted existing buildings by the Ministry of Culture, growing the debate on adapting historical buildings to current sustainability needs. The Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) observed the increase in family commuting and the attractiveness of marginal territories. Despite the scarcity of services, one-fifth of Italian small municipalities are attractive according to some indicators, primarily the demographic growth in the last three years. The COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to the re-evaluation of inland areas. Remote working and the new need for open spaces could increase the return to small villages and be further boosted by the fiscal incentives. This paper considers the evolution of last year’s real estate market, evaluating whether the regulatory tools for energy retrofit and tax relief meet the trade crisis with a possible benefit of preserving historical buildings. This research cannot ignore the European background; therefore, this paper offers an overview of EU regulatory strategies for energy efficiency recently issued to increase sustainability, focusing on tax credits for improving existing buildings. In conclusion, some considerations are proposed for future in-depth research.

Tripartite relationship between FDI, trade openness and economic growth amidst global economic crisis in Nigeria: application of combined cointegration and augmented ARDL analysis

There is general consensuses among scholars on the importance of international trade and foreign direct investment as a main macroeconomic variables that drive economic growth of developing countries. However, the global economic crisis plays dominant role in determining the movement of these macroeconomic variables that can change the nomenclature of economic activities in relation with trade and FDI inflow. For this purpose, this study investigates the relationship between trade openness, FDI inflow and economic growth of Nigeria by accounting for the effects of global economic crisis of 2007–2008 and commodity crisis of 2016 using Bayer and Hanck (in J Time Ser Anal 34(1):83–95, 2013) approach to cointegration and augmented autoregressive distributed lag (AARDL) method on time series data from 1982 to 2018. The results provide evidence that (1) global economic crisis significantly dampens economic growth. (2) The negative interaction of total trade, FDI and global financial economic crisis is substantive enough to dampen the trade-growth and FDI-growth led relationship. (3) The negative interaction of FDI-inflow with global economic crisis is more pronounced and substantive in the long run than the short run. This study recommends for policy option positioned towards escalating specific fiscal measure that should provide a sound legislative rules and reductions in taxes for international investors; stimulus measures targeting measures to control public spending, which had previously fuelled economic expansion.

Analysis of trade in endemic Javan hill partridges over the last quarter of a century period

There is increasing recognition of the impact that wildlife trade has on globally threatened and geographically restricted species. For only a few species do we have long-term datasets on their presence in domestic trade. The Asian Songbird Trade Crisis has highlighted the detrimental role that the cage bird trade has on populations of wild birds (songbirds and others) throughout Asia. Starting in 1994, I have visited bird markets in Java and Bali, Indonesia, recording the presence of chestnut-bellied hill partridges Arborophila javanica (endemic to most of Java apart from the easternmost part) and white-faced hill partridges A. orientalis (endemic to easternmost Java). The data thus collected allowed me to test hypotheses related to rarity, price, and purported population trends. No change in the number of hill partridges in trade was observed over this period. The more widespread chestnut-bellied hill partridge was recorded in higher numbers (mean of 1.7 birds survey−1) than white-faced hill partridges (mean of 0.4 birds survey−1). I monitored their online trade on four bird selling platforms and two dedicated hill partridge Facebook pages. Like the trade in the bird markets, the chestnut-bellied hill partridge was recorded in higher numbers than white-faced hill partridges (106 vs 44 birds). Both species were for sale both within and outside their native ranges (17 cities for chestnut-bellied and 10 cities for white-face hill partridges) suggesting extensive trade networks with birds being transported hundreds of kilometres. Average asking prices were similar for both species (US$31) and were not related to the minimum monthly wage of the cities in which the birds were offered for sale. I estimate that annually 3500 chestnut-bellied hill partridges and 700 white-faced hill partridges are sold in the bird markets on Java and Bali. Despite the absence of a harvest quota, the presence of both species over a 27-year period in numerous bird markets, and over the last decade online, indicated the absence of commitment and political and societal pressures to curb the illegal trade in birds in Indonesia.

Singapore's Threat Perception: The Barter Trade Crisis and Malaysia's Decision to Use Military Force against Singapore, October–December 1965

This article examines the barter trade crisis between Singapore and Malaysia from October to December 1965. Singapore separated from Malaysia on 9 August 1965 after acrimonious relations during the merger period. After the separation, both parties experienced difficulties in their relations with each other, which at times led to tensions. Singapore's attempt to resume barter trade with Indonesia immediately after the separation drew a sharp response from Malaysia. Drawing on archival materials, this article examines the events surrounding the barter trade crisis, an under‐researched area within the literature of Singapore's defence policy and history. The barter trade crisis was significant because the Malaysian political leadership had clearly and unequivocally declared their intent to use military force against Singapore for the first time since the separation. As a result of the Malaysian military threat, Singapore abandoned the barter trade proposals. The event arguably left an enduring impact on Singapore's threat perceptions against Malaysia.

New-generation trade agreement with Japan: Significance to EU Companies

Objective: The New-generation trade agreements, which include the agreement with Japan, provide wide coverage – not only the liberalisation of trade in goods or services but also the protection of intellectual property rights, the public procurement market, sustainable development and others. This paper aims to demonstrate key provisions and (both ex post and ex ante) opportunities that the agreement creates for EU companies. Research Design & Methods: The research methods include a critical review of existing literature, an analysis of relevant legal and official documents of the European Union, as well as the provisions of the EU-Japan trade agreement. The empirical research focused on Eurostat data. Findings: The provisions of the EU-Japan agreement provide an incentive for European companies to strengthen their position on the Japanese market. The elimination of import duties and other barriers to trade in Japan in relation to certain agricultural products on the entry into force of the agreement contributed to higher exports from the EU for these groups of goods. What might be expected is the additional effect of the liberalisation of bilateral trade on third countries. In fact, standards or rules agreed by Japan and the EU may become even more attractive to third countries, as their adoption would facilitate access to two large markets. Implications & Recommendations: Japan is a relatively important trading partner for the EU and vice versa. One of the biggest achievements of the agreement made between the European Union and Japan includes the wide and deep liberalisation of trade in goods. Despite the fact that the overall level of tariff protection is relatively low, there are still some groups of goods for which the protection in the form of customs duties constitutes an important barrier, as a result of which the conditions for competing on the partner’s market deteriorate. It seems that EU entrepreneurs should make more use of the opportunities which are created by the provisions of the free trade agreement with Japan. So far, the trade crisis caused by the pandemic has stood in the way. Contribution & Value Added: Research conducted so far is of an ex ante nature, both regarding the provisions of the agreement (publications written before 2018) and the evaluation of its potential effects on economy, trade, production or selected sectors. The research carried out in this article is of an ex post nature; it covers the period following the entry into force of the agreement and does not present any growth scenarios or forecasts, as was the case in the existing research. The article attempted to juxtapose the provisions of the agreement with Japan with trade conditions applicable to EU companies, as well as with the growth rate, volume and coverage of bilateral trade in goods.

Анализ динамики производственных связей стран Балтии с Россией

Russia and the Baltic States have a long-standing relationship of industrial specialisation, cooperation, division of labour and trade exchange, all dating back to the Soviet Union. Today, this relationship is facing a tough test amid political and ideological challenges and risks. The last two years have seen a profound and large-scale crisis caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, the production linkages between Russia and the Baltic States have adapted in response to the existing problems, remaining resistant to the geopolitical and pandemic shocks. This article examines the production linkages between Russia and the Baltic countries, investigating the export-import flows of consumer and intermediate goods in 2003—2020. A comparative study of the Baltic States’ production linkages with Russia and their main partners in the EU — Germany and Finland — is carried out. It is concluded that, before the introduction of sanctions in 2014 and the world trade crisis of 2015—2016, Russia was a more promising market than Germany and Finland for the Baltic States’ companies trading in intermediate goods.

A Study on the Theoretical Framework of Discourse Analysis of China’s Response to Sino-US Trade Frictions

This paper selects the reports on Sino-US trade friction published by People’s Daily from August 2, 2019, when the United States announced that it would impose tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the United States, until the end of September 2019. Based on Zang Guoren’s news framework theory, this paper used the method of content analysis and framework analysis to analyze the four aspects of news source, reporting theme, schema structure, and reporting tendency. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the news framework constructed by People’s Daily under the publication strategy of Sino-US trade friction news reports. People’s Daily constructs the basic framework of news report with the main body showing the evaluation of China’s tariff increase policy of the United States. The theme of this paper is to focus on the ways in which China’s mainstream media People’s Daily reports Sino-US trade frictions, and find out the fundamental differences between China and the United States in the process of analyzing relevant news reports. People’s Daily attaches great importance to the expression of Chinese speech position in terms of news report selection strategy, focusing on dialogue, cooperation, and discourse communication, supplemented by criticism and refutation, focusing on the future prospects of Sino-US economic and trade relations, and emphasizing “speech communication” more than “counter action.” The related reports on Sino-US trade frictions in People’s Daily retrieved in this paper reflect China’s strong confidence in its own economic development strength in the face of the trade crisis brought about by the arbitrary imposition of tariffs by the United States. It also emphasizes the principle of “reasonable, advantageous, and prudent” adopted by China’s counter-measures, highlighting China’s desire to actively engage in equal and effective dialogue with the U.S., and expressing the Chinese government’s willingness to actively resolve Sino-US trade frictions under the premise of “mutual benefit and win-win results.”

Features of critical resource trade networks of lithium-ion batteries

Critical resources are key for low carbon development. International trade in critical resources is commonplace. It is important to clarify country roles within this trade network so that resource supply risk can be mitigated and low carbon industries can be supported. This study investigates global trade of typical ores and chemical compounds for lithium-ion batteries—lithium carbonate, cobalt oxide, nickel sulfate, manganese sulfate, nickel ore and manganese ore. The period 2010–2018 is selected to explore different country roles using network analysis. A competition trade model is developed to identify relationships between countries. A critical resource influence model is developed using bootstrap percolation theory to simulate impacts arising from dominant countries—those countries with rich resource endowments or mature markets. Results show that dominant countries tend to maintain close trade relationships. Trade scale is a key factor influencing each country's trade competitiveness and influence. Several policy recommendations are proposed to promote sustainable resource trade and use. • The roles and statuses of countries in the critical resources network are identified. • Trade scale is a key factor to influence a country's trade competitiveness. • Compared to import network, resources' export network is more prone to be influenced by trade crisis. • Improvement of one country's contingency capability in trade networks is vital for addressing one trade crisis.

Is Nano-Biofortification the Right Approach for Malnutrition in the Era of COVID-19 and Climate change?

Human health may depend on the environment and its compartments, which may include climatic factors. These climatic factors and their changes might impact on human health particularly the outbreak of pandemics like COVID-19. The combined stress resulted from climate changes and COVID-19 could be noticed in several countries especially in the developing countries. Malnutrition is considered one of the most important problems in the developing countries in particular under the droughts, flooding, and other climatic events. Malnutrition was aggravated under COVID-19 outbreak in these countries due to the closure of border between countries, the crisis of global trade, and the global food insecurity. The biofortification process is the sustainable solution to overcome malnutrition, which included very recently using nano-nutrients as called nano-biofortification. The approach of nano-biofortification is a promising tool in producing biofortified edible plants, otherwise this tool still needs more studies to answer the open questions like which nano-nutrients can be used in nano-biofortification? Which recommended doses and crops are considered suitable candidates?

THE WTO DISPUTE SETTLEMENT SYSTEM IN 2020: FACING THE APPELLATE BODY PARALYSIS

The COVID-19 economic and trade crisis, which started in early 2020, hit the WTO at a moment in which the organization was certainly not in good health. The respect of its rules has reached a low level, due to recourse to unilateral restrictive measures of dubious legality (to say the least) and to bilateral agreements in disregard of multilateral obligations. The dispute settlement system has been, and remains half paralyzed due to the demise of the Appellate Body (AB) since the end of 2019. That said, the Appellate Body has finished its work on certain pending cases and adopted three reports. This contribution therefore covers the above-mentioned three appellate reports and two panel reports of special interest: the Saudi Arabia-Intellectual Property and the US-Tariff Measures on Chinese goods.

Impact of COVID-19 on the trade of goods and services in Spain

Purpose This paper aims to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the trade of goods and services in Spain. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses monthly trade data at the product, region and firm level. Findings The COVID-19 crisis has led to the sharpest collapse in the Spanish trade of goods and services in recent decades. The containment measures adopted to arrest the spread of the virus have caused an especially intense fall of trade in services. The large share of transport equipment, capital goods, products that are consumed outdoors (i.e., outdoor goods) and tourism in Spanish exports has made the COVID-19 trade crisis more intense in Spain than in the rest of the European Union. Practical implications The nature of the collapse suggests that trade in goods can recover swiftly when the health crisis ends. However, COVID-19 may have a long-term negative impact on the trade of services that rely on the movement of people. Originality/value It contributes to understand how COVID-19 has affected the trade in goods and services in Spain.

Russian Empire in the System of Global Trade in Medicinal Herbs in the Late 18th – Early 19th Century and the Problem of Proportion Between “Scientific” and “Traditional” Pharmaceutics

This article examines Russian imports of medicinal plants in the late 18th – early 19th centuries and the attempts to reduce these procurements by using home-grown plants instead in the context of a general crisis in European trade during the Napoleonic wars. It attempts to estimate the volumes of imported medicinal materials, analyzes the range of medicinal plants, and compares the trades in exotic medicinal plants in Russia with the known data about their circulation in various European countries. The article demonstrates the dependency of Russian state-run apothecaries and hospitals on both the imported exotic plants and species native to the Russian Empire in the late 18th – early 19th centuries, and examines the available data concerning the apothecary gardens and wild medicinal plants harvesting for state-run apothecaries in Russia. It highlights the lack of infrastructure for a steady supply of native plants to state-run apothecaries and hospitals, the factor that accounted for the futility of attempts to reduce the dependency on imported medicaments in the early 19th century. At the same time, the paper emphasizes the continuing presence of local potion and herb shops trading in medicinal plants long before the transfer of European pharmaceutical institutions and practices to the Russian empire. These shops were not restricted to trading in indigenous plants only but could also sell the exotic ones. This fact undermines the simple binary model of European and “indigenous” or “folk” pharmaceutical traditions co-existing in Russia in the late 18th – early 19th centuries, arguing instead for their entangled histories.

US-China Transnational Law in a Time of Trade Crisis

US-China Transnational Law in a Time of Trade Crisis