Total Solar Irradiance Variations Research Articles

Solar Irradiance: Instrument-Based Advances

AbstractVariations of the total solar irradiance (TSI) over long periods of time provide natural Earth-climate forcing and are thus important to monitor. Variations over a solar cycle are at the 0.1 % level. Variations on multi-decadal to century timescales are (fortunately for our climate stability) very small, which drives the need for highly-accurate and stable measurements over correspondingly long periods of time to discern any such irradiance changes. Advances to TSI-measuring space-borne instruments are approaching the desired climate-driven measurement accuracies and on-orbit stabilities. I present a summary of the modern-instrument improvements enabling these measurements and present some of the solar-variability measurement results from recent space-borne instruments, including TSI variations on timescales from solar flares and large-scale convection to solar cycles.

The Sun's Seismic Radius as Measured from the Fundamental Modes of Oscillations and Its Implications for the TSI Variations

Abstract In this Letter we explore the relationship between the solar seismic radius and total solar irradiance (TSI) during the last two solar cycles using the uninterrupted data from space-borne instruments on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SoHO) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The seismic radius is calculated from the fundamental (f) modes of solar oscillations utilizing the observations from SoHO/Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), and the TSI measurements are obtained from SoHO/VIRGO. Our study suggests that the major contribution to the TSI variation arises from the changes in magnetic field, while the radius variation plays a secondary role. We find that the solar irradiance increases with decreasing seismic radius; however, the anti-correlation between them is moderately weak. The estimated maximum change in seismic radius during a solar cycle is about 5 km, and is consistent in both solar cycles 23 and 24. Previous studies ;suggest a radius change at the surface of the order of 0.06 arcsec to explain the 0.1% variation in the TSI values during the solar cycle; however, our inferred seismic radius change is significantly smaller, hence the TSI variations cannot be fully explained by the temporal changes in seismic radius.

Modulations of the surface magnetic field on the intra-cycle variability of total solar irradiance

Solar photospheric magnetic field plays a dominant role in the variability of total solar irradiance (TSI). The modulation of magnetic flux at six specific ranges on TSI is characterized for the first time. The daily flux values of magnetic field at four ranges are extracted from MDI/{\sl SOHO}, together with daily flux of active regions (MF$_{\text{ar}}$) and quiet regions (MF$_{\text{qr}}$); the first four ranges (MF$_{1-4}$) are: 1.5--2.9, 2.9--32.0, 32.0--42.7, and 42.7--380.1 ($\times 10^{18}$ Mx per element), respectively. Cross-correlograms show that MF$_4$, MF$_{\text{qr}}$, and MF$_{\text{ar}}$ are positively correlated with TSI, while MF$_2$ is negatively correlated with TSI; the correlations between MF$_1$, MF$_3$ and TSI are insignificant. The bootstrapping tests confirm that the impact of MF$_4$ on TSI is more significant than that of MF$_{\text{ar}}$ and MF$_{\text{qr}}$, and MF$_{\text{ar}}$ leads TSI by one rotational period. By extracting the rotational variations in the MFs and TSI, the modulations of the former on the latter at the solar rotational timescale are clearly illustrated and compared during solar maximum and minimum times, respectively. Comparison of the relative amplitudes of the long-term variation show that TSI is in good agreement with the variation of MF$_4$ and MF$_{\text{ar}}$; besides, MF$_2$ is in antiphase with TSI, and it lags the latter by about 1.5 years.

Phase Relations between the Sunspot Numbers and Total Solar Irradiance

Abstract Understanding the effect of sunspot activities on the variations in the total solar irradiance (TSI) is essential for the interpretation of the variability of TSI as well as its reconstruction. Phase relations between the sunspot numbers (SN) and two TSI composite data are investigated. It is found that TSI and SN are positively correlated, and the former lags the latter by about 29 days, which is approximately a solar rotation period; analyses of the data sets in the four individual cycles show that in cycles 21, 23, and 24, TSI lags SN by 28.9–30.3 days, while in cycle 22, the lag is only 21.8–22.3 days. The abnormality in cycle 22 is probably caused by its stronger magnetic field in sunspots compared with its adjacent cycles. The nonlinearity between TSI and SN is confirmed and explained with the different behavior and effect of spots, faculae, and magnetic network. Based on the cross-wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis, a common periodicity between TSI and SN at the timescale of the solar cycle is clearly revealed; at timescales longer than about four years, high values of coherence above the 95% confidence level together with a strong phase synchronization feature are exhibited. At timescales shorter than three rotational periods, the relation between TSI and SN indicates low correlations and a noisy behavior with strong phase mixing due to the lifetime of spots and faculae; moreover, if the short-term effect of spots and faculae is smoothed out, then their coherence reaches high values in partial areas at periods from three rotations to about four years.

Photometric Properties of Network and Faculae Derived from HMI Data Compensated for Scattered Light

Abstract We report on the photometric properties of faculae and network, as observed in full-disk, scattered-light-corrected images from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager. We use a Lucy–Richardson deconvolution routine that corrects an image in less than one second. Faculae are distinguished from network through proximity to active regions. This is the first report that full-disk observations, including center-to-limb variations, reproduce the photometric properties of faculae and network observed previously only in sub-arcsecond-resolution; small field-of-view studies, i.e. that network, as defined by distance from active regions, exhibit higher photometric contrasts. Specifically, for magnetic flux values larger than approximately 300 G, the network is brighter than faculae and the contrast differences increase toward the limb, where the network contrast is about twice the facular one. For lower magnetic flux values, network appear darker than faculae. Contrary to reports from previous full-disk observations, we also found that network exhibits a higher center-to-limb variation. Our results are in agreement with reports from simulations that indicate magnetic flux alone is a poor proxy of the photometric properties of magnetic features. We estimate that the contribution of faculae and network to Total Solar Irradiance variability of the current Cycle 24 is overestimated by at least 11%, due to the photometric properties of network and faculae not being recognized as different. This estimate is specific to the method employed in this study to reconstruct irradiance variations, so caution should be paid when extending it to other techniques.

The CLARA/NORSAT-1 solar absolute radiometer: instrument design, characterization and calibration

The compact lightweight absolute radiometer (CLARA) experiment aims at measuring the total solar irradiance (TSI) in space and is scheduled to fly on the Norwegian NORSAT-1 micro satellite. The CLARA experiment will contribute to the long term monitoring of the TSI variability to support the analysis of potential long term trends in the Sun’s variability. CLARA is traceable to the National Institute of Standards and Technology radiometric scale and will provide further evidence for the TSI value on an absolute scale. In this paper we present the design, characterization, and calibration details of the CLARA instrument. The combined measurement uncertainty for the calibrated SI-traceable CLARA flight instrument is 567–912 ppm (k = 1) depending on the measuring channel.

Temporal Variations in Solar Irradiance Since 1947

The study of variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) and spectral irradiance is important for understanding how the Sun affects the Earth’s climate. A data-driven approach is used in this article to analyze and model the temporal variation of the TSI and Mg ii index back to 1947. In both cases, observed data in the time interval of the satellite era, 1978 – 2013, were used for neural network (NN) model-design and testing. For this particular purpose, the evolution of the solar magnetic field is assumed to be the main driver for the day-to-day irradiance variability. First, we design a model for the Mg ii index data from F10.7 cm solar radio-flux using the NN approach in the time span of 1978 through 2013. Results of Mg ii index model were tested using various numbers of hidden nodes. The predicted values of the hidden layer with five nodes correspond well to the composite Mg ii values. The model reproduces 94% of the variability in the composite Mg ii index, including the secular decline between the 1996 and 2008 solar cycle minima. Finally, the extrapolation of the Mg ii index was performed using the developed model from F10.7 cm back to 1947. Similarly, the NN model was designed for TSI variability study over the time span of the satellite era using data from the Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos (PMOD) as a target, and solar activity indices as model inputs. This model was able to reproduce the daily irradiance variations with a correlation coefficient of 0.937 from sunspot and facular measurements in the time span of 1978 – 2013. Finally, the temporal variation of the TSI was analyzed using the designed NN model back to 1947 from the Photometric Sunspot Index (PSI) and the extrapolated Mg ii index. The extrapolated TSI result indicates that the amplitudes of Solar Cycles 19 and 21 are closely comparable to each other, and Solar Cycle 20 appears to be of lower irradiance during its maximum.

Association of Supergranule Mean Scales with Solar Cycle Strengths and Total Solar Irradiance

Abstract We analyze the long-term behavior of the supergranule scale parameter, in active regions (ARs) and quiet regions (QRs), using the Kodaikanal digitized data archive. This database provides century-long daily full disk observations of the Sun in Ca ii K wavelengths. In this paper, we study the distributions of the supergranular scales, over the whole data duration, which show identical shape in these two regimes. We found that the AR mean scale values are always higher than that of the QR for every solar cycle. The mean scale values are highly correlated with the sunspot number cycle amplitude and also with total solar irradiance (TSI) variations. Such a correlation establishes the cycle-wise mean scale as a potential calibrator for the historical data reconstructions. We also see an upward trend in the mean scales, as has already been reported in TSI. This may provide new input for climate forcing models. These results also give us insight into the different evolutionary scenarios of the supergranules in the presence of strong (AR) and weak (QR) magnetic fields.

High-resolution δ18O and δ13C records of an AMS 14C and 230Th/U dated stalagmite from Xinya Cave in Chongqing: Climate and vegetation change during the late Holocene

Two stalagmites, XY07-8 and -11 collected from Xinya Cave in northeast Chongqing of China, were dated by 230Th/U and AMS 14C methods. The Holocene parts of the stalagmites contain high Th contents, resulting large uncertainties of the 230Th/U ages. Two precise 230Th/U dates in the pre-Holocene part of XY07-8 agree well with the AMS 14C ages. The Holocene 14C dates of the two stalagmites reveal a 600-year initial 14C age which was probably introduced from the dissolved CO2 in the overlaying soil and transferred into the seepage water, supported by the AMS 14C dating on soil organic carbon in an overlying soil profile near the cave. Based on the AMS 14C and 230Th/U dating results, a reliable chronology of the 22-cm part of XY07-8 has been established, revealing a continuous growth since 23 ka BP. The δ18O and δ13C records of the top 5.3-cm part of XY07-8 provide climate and vegetation changes over the past 4100 years. The comparisons of the XY07-8 δ18O record with the instrumental rainfall, historic dry-wet index and the stalagmite δ18O records from other caves in eastern China not only serve verification of the XY07-8 chronology, but also confirm the δ18O record as a monsoonal rainfall proxy. The XY07-8 δ18O record indicates that on millennial scale the intensity of East Asian Summer Monsoon was decreased from 4100 a BP to 2400 a BP following the decline of the summer insolation, then leveling out with decadal-to-centennial variations. On decadal-to-centennial scales, the XY07-8 δ18O record reveals wetness changes probably corresponding to variations in total solar irradiance (TSI), with lighter δ18O excursions reflecting wetter episodes under less TSI that is opposite to the δ18O – TSI correlation of the stalagmite records from the caves in north and south China. Furthermore, unlike the δ18O record, the δ13C record does not show the Holocene “insolation decline” trend, but generally following the decadal-to-centennial variations of the δ18O record and the TSI record except the last 150 years. Since 1850 CE, the XY07-8 δ18O has an enriched trend which reflects an arid trend in climate, but the δ13C has a depleted trend perhaps indicating human impacts on the vegetation and atmosphere CO2. This study calls for the attention to the discrepancies and physical meanings of stalagmite δ18O on different time scales (“monsoon intensity” on millennium scale vs. “rainfall index” on decadal scale) and to the spatial disparity of monsoonal rainfall in eastern China.

Method of frequency dependent correlations: investigating the variability of total solar irradiance

This paper contributes to the field of modeling and hindcasting of the total solar irradiance (TSI) based on different proxy data that extend further back in time than the TSI that is measured from satellites. We introduce a simple method to analyze persistent frequency-dependent correlations (FDCs) between the time series and use these correlations to hindcast missing historical TSI values. We try to avoid arbitrary choices of the free parameters of the model by computing them using an optimization procedure. The method can be regarded as a general tool for pairs of data sets, where correlating and anticorrelating components can be separated into non-overlapping regions in frequency domain. Our method is based on low-pass and band-pass filtering with a Gaussian transfer function combined with de-trending and computation of envelope curves. We find a major controversy between the historical proxies and satellite-measured targets: a large variance is detected between the low-frequency parts of targets, while the low-frequency proxy behavior of different measurement series is consistent with high precision. We also show that even though the rotational signal is not strongly manifested in the targets and proxies, it becomes clearly visible in FDC spectrum. The application of the new method to solar data allows us to obtain important insights into the different TSI modeling procedures and their capabilities for hindcasting based on the directly observed time intervals.

Temporal variations of different solar activity indices through the solar cycles 21-23

Here, we compare the sunspot counts and the number of sunspot groups (SGs) with variations of total solar irradiance (TSI), magnetic activity, Ca II K-flux, faculae and plage areas. We applied a time series method for extracting the data over the descending phases of solar activity cycles (SACs) 21, 22 and 23, and the ascending phases 22 and 23. Our results suggest that there is a strong correlation between solar activity indices and the changes in small (A, B, C and H-modified Zurich Classification) and large (D, E and F) SGs. This somewhat unexpected finding suggests that plage regions substantially decreased in spite of the higher number of large SGs in SAC 23 while the Ca II K-flux did not decrease by a large amount nor was it comparable with SAC 22 and relates with C and DEF type SGs. In addition to this, the increase of facular areas which are influenced by large SGs, caused a small percentage decrease in TSI while the decrement of plage areas triggered a higher decrease in the magnetic field flux. Our results thus reveal the potential of such a detailed comparison of the SG analysis with solar activity indices for better understanding and predicting future trends in the SACs.

Climate responses to SATIRE and SIM-based spectral solar forcing in a 3D atmosphere-ocean coupled GCM

We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) based, the other the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) modeled, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine climate responses on decadal to centennial time scales, focusing on quantifying the difference of climate response between the two solar forcing scenarios. We run the GCMAM for about 400 years with present day trace gas and aerosol for the two solar forcing inputs. We find that the SIM-based solar forcing induces much larger long-term response and 11-year variation in global averaged stratospheric temperature and column ozone. We find significant decreasing trends of planetary albedo for both forcing scenarios in the 400-year model runs. However the mechanisms for the decrease are very different. For SATIRE solar forcing, the decreasing trend of planetary albedo is associated with changes in cloud cover. For SIM-based solar forcing, without significant change in cloud cover on centennial and longer time scales, the apparent decreasing trend of planetary albedo is mainly due to out-of-phase variation in shortwave radiative forcing proxy (downwelling flux for wavelength >330 nm) and total solar irradiance (TSI). From the Maunder Minimum to present, global averaged annual mean surface air temperature has a response of ~0.1 °C to SATIRE solar forcing compared to ~0.04 °C to SIM-based solar forcing. For 11-year solar cycle, the global surface air temperature response has 3-year lagged response to either forcing scenario. The global surface air 11-year temperature response to SATIRE forcing is about 0.12 °C, similar to recent multi-model estimates, and comparable to the observational-based evidence. However, the global surface air temperature response to 11-year SIM-based solar forcing is insignificant and inconsistent with observation-based evidence.

FIVE YEARS OF SYNTHESIS OF SOLAR SPECTRAL IRRADIANCE FROM SDID/SISA AND SDO/AIA IMAGES

ABSTRACT In this paper we describe the synthetic solar spectral irradiance (SSI) calculated from 2010 to 2015 using data from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) instrument, on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory spacecraft. We used the algorithms for solar disk image decomposition (SDID) and the spectral irradiance synthesis algorithm (SISA) that we had developed over several years. The SDID algorithm decomposes the images of the solar disk into areas occupied by nine types of chromospheric and 5 types of coronal physical structures. With this decomposition and a set of pre-computed angle-dependent spectra for each of the features, the SISA algorithm is used to calculate the SSI. We discuss the application of the basic SDID/SISA algorithm to a subset of the AIA images and the observed variation occurring in the 2010–2015 period of the relative areas of the solar disk covered by the various solar surface features. Our results consist of the SSI and total solar irradiance variations over the 2010–2015 period. The SSI results include soft X-ray, ultraviolet, visible, infrared, and far-infrared observations and can be used for studies of the solar radiative forcing of the Earth’s atmosphere. These SSI estimates were used to drive a thermosphere–ionosphere physical simulation model. Predictions of neutral mass density at low Earth orbit altitudes in the thermosphere and peak plasma densities at mid-latitudes are in reasonable agreement with the observations. The correlation between the simulation results and the observations was consistently better when fluxes computed by SDID/SISA procedures were used.

Initial In-flight Results: The Total Solar Irradiance Monitor on the FY-3C Satellite, an Instrument with a Pointing System

The total solar irradiance (TSI) has been recorded daily since October 2013 by the Total Solar Irradiance Monitor (TSIM) onboard the FY-3C satellite, which is mainly designed for Earth observation. The TSIM has a pointing system to perform solar tracking using a sun sensor. The TSI is measured by two electrical substitution radiometers with traceability to the World Radiation Reference. The TSI value measured with the TSIM on 2 October 2013 is \(1364.88~\mbox{W}\,\mbox{m}^{-2}\) with an uncertainty of \(1.08~\mbox{W}\,\mbox{m}^{-2}\). Short-term TSI variations recorded with the TSIM show good agreement with SOHO/VIRGO and SORCE/TIM. The data quality and accuracy of FY-3C/TSIM are much better than its predecessors on the FY-3A and FY-3B satellites, which operated in a scanning mode.

Extraordinary flood events and the response to monsoonal climatic change during the last 3000 years along the middle Yangtze River valley, China

Well-dated long-term flood data series is very important in studying of hydrological response to past climatic change along the mainstream of the Yangtze River. Five palaeoflood events recorded by slackwater deposits were identified by the sedimentological criteria and analytical results. A detailed chronological framework of palaeoflood events during the late Holocene was established by optically stimulated luminescence dating in combination with anthropogenic remains, and with pedo-stratigraphic correlations with well dated Holocene loess-soil profiles within the middle Yangtze River basin. The five palaeoflood events were dated to 2.43±0.18ka, 1.82±0.17ka, 0.94±0.07ka, 0.72±0.06ka and 0.59±0.05ka, respectively. These results are consistent with geological records at other palaeoflood sites and historical flood records along the middle Yangtze River valley. A regional synthesis of the palaeoflood chronology over the last 3000years was compiled along the middle Yangtze River. Extraordinary flood events generally seem to be correlated with late Holocene climatic variability (i.e. Neoglacial cooling, Roman Warm Period, Dark Ages Cold Period, Medieval Climate Anomaly, and Little Ice Age). The high-resolution climatic proxies from stalagmites of the Dongge cave and Heshang cave, ice-cores of the GRIP, the total solar irradiance variations and sunspot number, and ENSO activities suggest that these hydroclimatic events are possibly related to the weaker Asia summer monsoon and the cooling climatic events, as well as the stronger ENSO activities during the late Holocene in the Yangtze River valley. These results provide insights into the response of hydroclimatic system to global change in the large rivers of Asia.

The influence of solar system oscillation on the variability of the total solar irradiance

Total solar irradiance (TSI) is the primary quantity of energy that is provided to the Earth. The properties of the TSI variability are critical for understanding the cause of the irradiation variability and its expected influence on climate variations. A deterministic property of TSI variability can provide information about future irradiation variability and expected long-term climate variation, whereas a non-deterministic variability can only explain the past.This study of solar variability is based on an analysis of two TSI data series, one since 1700 A.D. and one since 1000 A.D.; a sunspot data series since 1610 A.D.; and a solar orbit data series from 1000 A.D. The study is based on a wavelet spectrum analysis. First, the TSI data series are transformed into a wavelet spectrum. Then, the wavelet spectrum is transformed into an autocorrelation spectrum to identify stationary, subharmonic and coincidence periods in the TSI variability.The results indicate that the TSI and sunspot data series have periodic cycles that are correlated with the oscillations of the solar position relative to the barycenter of the solar system, which is controlled by gravity force variations from the large planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. A possible explanation for solar activity variations is forced oscillations between the large planets and the solar dynamo.We find that a stationary component of the solar variability is controlled by the 12-year Jupiter period and the 84-year Uranus period with subharmonics. For TSI and sunspot variations, we find stationary periods related to the 84-year Uranus period. Deterministic models based on the stationary periods confirm the results through a close relation to known long solar minima since 1000 A.D. and suggest a modern maximum period from 1940 to 2015. The model computes a new Dalton-type sunspot minimum from approximately 2025 to 2050 and a new Dalton-type period TSI minimum from approximately 2040 to 2065.

Regional Influences of Natural External Forcings on the Transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age

Abstract Reconstructions of historical climate changes indicate that surface air temperatures decreased over the preindustrial last millennium. Conflicting explanations have been proposed for the cause of the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) in the early part of the last millennium to the Little Ice Age (LIA) near its end. The possible causes include volcanic emissions, total solar irradiance (TSI) variations, greenhouse gas concentration fluctuations, and orbital forcing variations. In the present paper, it is demonstrated that all of these climate forcings contribute significantly to simulated surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice concentration changes over this period. On the other hand, simulated ocean heat content appears to respond significantly only to volcanic and TSI variations. In model simulations at T85 spectral resolution, TSI reductions and volcanic emissions together generate significant increases in sea ice extent in the Barents Sea, which is found to be responsible for most of the temperature reductions over northwestern Europe. TSI appears less important to Arctic sea ice and SAT changes in simulations at T42 spectral resolution, which are weaker than at T85 resolution. Such resolution dependence is attributed to differences in background conditions in the responses to these external climate forcings. Nonlinearities in the forcing responses and sensitivities to background conditions challenge the assumption that sensitivity tests for given forcings can be run independently. Additionally, it is demonstrated that an ensemble of model simulations is required to isolate forcing responses even over a period as long as the last millennium.

Stratospheric age of air variations between 1600 and 2100

AbstractThe current understanding of preindustrial stratospheric age of air (AoA), its variability, and the potential natural forcing imprint on AoA is very limited. Here we assess the influence of natural and anthropogenic forcings on AoA using ensemble simulations for the period 1600 to 2100 and sensitivity simulations for different forcings. The results show that from 1900 to 2100, CO2 and ozone‐depleting substances are the dominant drivers of AoA variability. With respect to natural forcings, volcanic eruptions cause the largest AoA variations on time scales of several years, reducing the age in the middle and upper stratosphere and increasing the age below. The effect of the solar forcing on AoA is small and dominated by multidecadal total solar irradiance variations, which correlate negatively with AoA. Additionally, a very weak positive relationship driven by ultraviolett variations is found, which is dominant for the 11 year cycle of solar variability.

The Impact of the Revised Sunspot Record on Solar Irradiance Reconstructions

Reliable historical records of total solar irradiance (TSI) are needed for climate change attribution and research to assess the extent to which long-term variations in the Sun's radiant energy incident on the Earth may exacerbate (or mitigate) the more dominant warming in recent centuries due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. We investigate potential impacts of the new Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) sunspot-number time series on model reconstructions of TSI. In contemporary TSI records, variations on time scales longer than about a day are dominated by the opposing effects of sunspot darkening and facular brightening. These two surface magnetic features, retrieved either from direct observations or from solar activity proxies, are combined in TSI models to reproduce the current TSI observational record. Indices that manifest solar-surface magnetic activity, in particular the sunspot-number record, then enable the reconstruction of historical TSI. Revisions to the sunspot-number record therefore affect the magnitude and temporal structure of TSI variability on centennial time scales according to the model reconstruction methodologies. We estimate the effects of the new SILSO record on two widely used TSI reconstructions, namely the NRLTSI2 and the SATIRE models. We find that the SILSO record has little effect on either model after 1885 but leads to greater amplitude solar-cycle fluctuations in TSI reconstructions prior, suggesting many 18th and 19th century cycles could be similar in amplitude to those of the current Modern Maximum. TSI records based on the revised sunspot data do not suggest a significant change in Maunder Minimum TSI values, and comparing that era to the present we find only very small potential differences in estimated solar contributions to climate with this new sunspot record.

Internal ice-sheet variability as source for the multi-century and millennial-scale iceberg events during the Holocene? A model study

The climate of the Holocene, the current interglacial covering the past 11,700 years, has been relatively stable compared to previous periods. Nevertheless, repeating occurrence of rapid natural climate changes that challenged human society are seen in proxy reconstructions. Ocean sediment cores for example display prominent peaks of enhanced ice rafted debris (IRD) during the Holocene with a multi-decadal to millennial scale periodicity. Different mechanisms were proposed that caused these enhanced IRD events, for example variations in the incoming total solar irradiance (TSI), volcanic eruptions and the combination of internal climate variability and external forcings. We investigate the probable mechanisms causing the occurrence of IRD-events over the past 6000 years using a fully coupled climate - ice-sheet - iceberg model (iLOVECLIM). We performed 19 experiments that differ in the applied forcings (TSI, volcanic) and the initial atmospheric conditions. To explore internal ice sheet variability one further experiment was done with fixed climate conditions. All the model runs displayed prominent peaks of enhanced iceberg melt flux (IMF), independent of the chosen experimental set-up. The spectral analysis of the experiments with the ice-sheet - climate model coupled displays significant peaks at 2000, 1000 years in all the experiments and at 500 years in most runs. The experiment with fixed climate conditions displays one significant peak of about 1500 years related to internal ice sheet variability. This frequency is modulated to 2000 and 1000 years in all the experiments with a coupled climate - ice sheet due to interactions between the climate components. We further investigate the impact of minimum TSI events on the timing and occurrence of enhanced IMF. In the experimental set-up that was forced with idealized sinusoidal TSI variations (±4 Wm−2), we find a significant occurrence of an increased iceberg melt flux about 60 years after the minimum TSI value. Yet, we also see a significant time lag of 80 years between reconstructed TSI minima and the simulated enhanced iceberg melt flux in some of the experiments without TSI forcing. The fact that also model runs that are not forced with TSI variations display an 80 year time lag indicates that the relationship between TSI and IMF is due to internal dynamics of the coupled system. From our experiments we conclude that internal ice sheet variability seems to be the source of the multi-century and millennial-scale iceberg events during the Holocene.