Top Tax Research Articles

Relativity, mobility, and optimal nonlinear income taxation in an open economy

Recent evidence suggests that globalization has reduced the barriers to international labor mobility and induced more cross-country social comparisons. In an open economy with tax-driven migration and consumption externalities (relativity), we derive an optimal tax formula that subsumes existing ones obtained under a maximin social objective and additively separable utility and sign the second-best (Mirrleesian) marginal tax rates for all skill levels. We establish the thresholds of the elasticity and level of migration to determine when relativity and inequality act as complements or substitutes in shaping the optimal top tax rate. Under both Nash and Stackelberg tax competition if the migration probability of top-income workers is approximately 50%, numerical calculation using parameter estimates from empirical studies shows that the country with labor inflow (outflow) implements over 10% lower (higher) marginal tax rates than suggested by the autarky equilibrium of Kanbur and Tuomala (2013).

Taxing Top Earners: a Human Capital Perspective

AbstractAn established view is that the revenue maximising top tax rate for the US is approximately 73%. In contrast, the revenue maximising top tax rate is approximately 49% in our quantitative human capital model. The key reason for the lower top tax rate is the presence of two new forces not captured by the model underlying the established view. These new forces are strengthened by the endogenous response of top earners’ human capital to a change in the top tax rate.

Taxing Top Earners: The Role of Entrepreneurs

This paper studies the optimal top marginal income tax rate in a quantitative framework with entrepreneurial choice, financing constraints, and realistic earnings and wealth distributions. I find that the revenue-maximizing top tax rate is approximately 41 percent — close to the recent levels in the US. In contrast, when calibrated with only workers to match realistic earnings and wealth distributions, the model predicts a revenue-maximizing top tax rate of 81 percent — close to the established view. There are two channels through which the baseline model has a lower revenue-maximizing top tax rate. First, the wealth distribution channel: increasing the top tax rate decreases wealth accumulation and leads to a less skewed wealth distribution in the long run (there are more top entrepreneurs with low wealth and less top entrepreneurs with high wealth). With financing constraints, there is a similar change in the business earnings distribution, implying a fall in the average business earnings at the top. Second, the general equilibrium effect on labor earnings of workers: in the model with entrepreneurs, increasing the top tax rate reduces the capital stock much more than labor supply, which decreases the capital-labor ratio and thus the equilibrium wage rate in the model economy. Finally, I find that the welfare-maximizing top marginal income tax rate is close to the revenue-maximizing one.

Behavioral Response to State Income Taxation of High Earners: Evidence from California

In November 2012, California voters passed increases to state marginal income tax rates of 1 to 3 percentage points for upper-income households. Drawing on the universe of California income tax filings, we present new findings about the effects of personal income taxation on household location choice and pre-tax income. First, over and above baseline rates of taxpayer departure from California, an additional 0.8% of the California residential tax filing base whose 2012 income would have been in the new 12.3% top tax bracket were no longer full year residents of California in 2013. Second, to identify the impact of the California tax policy shift on the pre-tax earnings of high-income California residents, we use as a control group high-earning out-of-state taxpayers who persistently file as California non-residents. Using a differences-in-differences strategy paired with propensity score matching, we estimate a substantial intensive margin response which begins in 2012 amongst California top-bracket taxpayers. Our estimates imply an intensive margin elasticity of income with respect to the marginal net-of-tax rate of 2.5 to 3.2. Among top-bracket California taxpayers, outward migration and behavioral responses by stayers together eroded 45.2% of the windfall tax revenues from the reform within the first year and 60.9% within two years, with the extensive margin accounting for 9.5% of this total response.

Taxing the Rich: Issues and Options

The U.S. economy exhibits high inequality and low economic mobility across generations relative to other high-income countries. The U.S. will need to raise more revenues in order to reduce these disparities, finance much-needed new services and investments, and address the nation’s long-term fiscal needs. This paper outlines policy options for raising a large amount of revenues primarily from the most affluent, first discussing potential incremental reforms and then focusing on four main options for more structural reform: (1) dramatically increasing the top tax rates on labor and other ordinary income, (2) taxing the wealthy on accrued gains as they arise and at ordinary rates, (3) a wealth tax on high-net-worth individuals, and (4) a financial transactions tax. Although we summarize the relative advantages and disadvantages of these approaches, we generally conclude that they all merit serious consideration. Several options are also complementary to one another. In practice, however, the relative strengths of each of these policies will depend to a large extent on how each is designed after it has made its way through the legislative and regulatory process.

Top Incomes in Germany, 1871–2014

This study provides new evidence on top income shares in Germany from industrialization to the present. Income concentration was high in the nineteenth century, dropped sharply after WWI and during the hyperinflation years of the 1920s, then increased rapidly throughout the Nazi period beginning in the 1930s. Following the end of WWII, German top income shares returned to 1920s levels. The German pattern stands in contrast to developments in France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, where WWII brought a sizeable and lasting reduction in top income shares. Since the turn of the millennium, income concentration in Germany has been on the rise and is today among the highest in Europe. The capital share is consistently positively associated with income concentration, whereas growth, technological change, trade, unions, and top tax rates are positively associated in some periods and negative in others.

Tax Function Influence: The Case of Power and Status

Social hierarchy theory predicts that the power and status of an organizational function have a first-order effect on the function’s ability to influence outcomes. We find that the rank of the title of the top tax executive is positively associated with tax planning after controlling for treatment effects. Our inferences remain when (1) using changes in the size of the c-suite as a shock to the relative power and status of the tax function and (2) examining promotions and demotions in title rank. Point estimates suggest that tax function power and status are up to 2.6 times as important as tax planning resources, up to 4.0 times as important as tax function-specific expertise, and more often than not more important than manager fixed effects. Overall, results suggest that the power and status of the tax function is often what matters most in determining tax outcomes.

Relocation of the Rich: Migration in Response to Top Tax Rate Changes from Spanish Reforms

A Spanish reform granted regions the authority to set income tax rates, resulting in substantial tax differentials. Using administrative data, we find that conditional on moving, taxes have a signi...

Finances of the Nation: Taxation of Top Incomes in Canada—Recent Developments in Rates and Redistribution

In this article, Michael Smart presents evidence on the evolution of top tax rates and tax progressivity since 1982. While top tax rates have recently increased substantially, the impact of these changes on redistribution through the tax system has been rather small to date. Smart suggests some possible explanations for this finding.

Relocation of the Rich: Migration in Response to Top Tax Rate Changes from Spanish Reforms

We quantify the importance of mobility as a response to top tax rate changes in a country where migration is relatively low. A recent Spanish tax reform granted states the authority to set income tax rates for the first time. This Spanish tax reform resulted in substantial tax differences across states for high-income tax payers. To study the effect of these tax changes, we use individual-level information from Social Security records over a period of one decade. Conditional on moving, taxes have a significant effect on the location choice. A one percent increase in the net of tax rate for a region relative to others increases the probability of moving to that region by 1.5 percentage points.

Trends and gradients in top tax elasticities: cross-country evidence, 1900–2014

We construct a cross-country dataset spanning 1900–2014 to estimate the tax elasticity of top incomes. Our results show that top tax elasticities vary tremendously over time; they were medium to low before 1950, dropped to almost zero during the postwar era and increased to unprecedented levels since 1980. We document a marked income gradient of increasing tax responsiveness at the top. Tax avoidance, especially income shifting between wage and capital income, appears to be one important driver of these patterns. Wars, financial crises, and country-specific effects and trends also have a bearing on top elasticities.

Computing state average marginal income tax rates: An application to Missouri

AbstractUsing filing‐level data, we compute the average marginal income tax rate for the State of Missouri. We have data from 2000 through 2015. We start with a simple experiment: consider the effect that a $10 change in federal adjusted gross income would have on each filer’s tax payment. We find that with deductions, exemptions, and credits, the average marginal income tax rate has been remarkably steady over the years, ranging from 3.50% to 3.66%. This rate is much lower than the top marginal income tax rate, which has been 6% for taxable income greater than $9,000 for the entire sample period. In addition, we compute the average marginal income tax rate for different types of income in order to compare directly with the NBER’s reported state rate.

Unhappy Returns: A Preliminary Estimate of Taxpayers Responsiveness to the 2016 Top Tax Rate Hike

The top 1 percent of earners reacted strongly to the federal tax hike on high earners 2016, according to a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Unhappy Returns: A Preliminary Estimate of Taxpayers Responsiveness to the 2016 Top Tax Rate Hike,” author Alexandre Laurin finds the underlying behavioural response of taxpayers resulted in $1.2 billion in fresh revenue for the federal government but cost provincial treasuries about $1.3 billion in lost tax revenues.

60 Years of the Personal Income Tax Rate in Germany: Appraisal and Recommendations

The personal income tax rate was modified 25 times in its 60 years of existence. However, policymakers largely missed opportunities to make systematic changes. The progressive function has to be manually adjusted due to its fixed nominal thresholds. As a result of the insufficient reforms of the past, the tax rates for taxable income increase rapidly and earners reach the top income tax rate is reached rather early. Still, both the minimum and the top tax rate are today lower than they were decades ago. Against this background, we recommend implementing a systematic adjustment to the tax thresholds. The current government proposals are not very ambitious in this regard.

Relocation of the Rich: Migration in Response to Top Tax Rate Changes from Spanish Reforms

Relocation of the Rich: Migration in Response to Top Tax Rate Changes from Spanish Reforms

Relocation of the Rich: Migration in Response to Top Tax Rate Changes From Spanish Reforms

Relocation of the Rich: Migration in Response to Top Tax Rate Changes From Spanish Reforms

Relocation of the Rich: Migration in Response to Top Tax Rate Changes from Spanish Reforms

A recent Spanish tax reform granted regions the authority to set income tax rates, resulting in substantial tax differentials. We use individual-level information from Social Security records over a period of one decade. Conditional on moving, taxes have a significant effect on location choice. A one percent increase in the net of tax rate for a region relative to others increases the probability of moving to that region by 1.7 percentage points. Focusing on the stock of top-taxpayers, we estimate an elasticity of the number of top taxpayers with respect to net-of-tax rates of 0.85. Using this elasticity, a theoretical model implies that the mechanical increase in tax revenue due to higher tax rates is larger than the loss in tax revenue from the out-flow of migration.

Revenue-maximizing top earned income tax rate in the presence of income-shifting

Abstract We provide an analysis of the revenue-maximizing top earned income tax rate for a country with one of the highest levels of earnings taxation in the world, Finland, and compare it to the current level of taxation. We account for the effect of income-shifting possibilities in the calculations and find that the current top tax rate on earnings in Finland is likely to be below the revenue-maximizing rate. We provide an explicit account of assumptions behind the Laffer curve calculations and demonstrate that policy conclusions depend critically on non-trivial choices regarding, for example, how the current top tax rate is calculated. The assumptions in the Laffer curve calculations need to be made explicit if the calculations are to provide guidance for policy.

Top marginal taxation and economic growth

ABSTRACTThe article explores the relationship between top marginal tax rates on personal income and economic growth. Using a data set of consistently measured top marginal tax rates for a panel of 18 OECD countries over the period 1965–2009, this article finds evidence in favour of a quadratic top tax–growth relationship. This represents the first reported evidence of a nonmonotonic significant relationship between top marginal income tax rates and economic growth. The point estimates of the regressions suggest that the marginal effect of higher top tax rates becomes negative above a growth-maximizing tax rate in the order of 60%. As top marginal tax rates observed after 1980 are below the estimated growth-maximizing level in most of the countries considered, a positive linear relationship between top marginal tax rates and GDP growth is found over the sub-period 1980–2009. Overall, results show that raising top marginal tax rates which are below their growth maximizing has the largest positive impact on growth when the related additional revenues are used to finance productive public expenditure, reduce budget deficits or reduce some other form of distortionary taxation.

Projected impacts of federal tax policy proposals on mortality burden in the United States: A microsimulation analysis

The public health consequences of federal income tax policies that influence income inequality are not well understood. I aimed to project the impacts on mortality of modifying federal income tax structures based on proposals by two recent United States (U.S.) Presidential candidates: Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders. I performed a microsimulation analysis using the latest U.S. Internal Revenue Service public-use tax file with state identifiers (2008 tax year), containing nationally-representative data from 139,651 tax returns. I considered five tax plan scenarios: 1) actual 2008 tax structures; proposals in 2016 by then-candidates 2) Trump and 3) Sanders; 4) a modified Sanders plan with higher top tax rates (75%); and 5) a modified Sanders plan with higher top rates plus revenue redistribution to lower-income households (<$40,000/year). I combined projected changes in income inequality with vital statistics data and past estimates of linkages between income inequality, income, and mortality. 29,689 (95% CI: 10,865–48,920) more deaths/year and 31,302 (95% CI: 11,455–51,577) fewer deaths/year from all causes are anticipated under the Trump and Sanders plans, respectively. Under the modified Sanders plan including higher top rates, 68,919 (95% CI: 25,221–113,561) fewer deaths/year are projected. Under the modified Sanders plan with redistribution, 333,504 (95% CI: 192,897–473,787) fewer deaths/year are expected. Policies that both raise federal income tax rates and redistribute tax revenue could confer large reductions in the total number of annual deaths among Americans. In this era of high income inequality and growing public support to address the rich-poor gap, policymakers should consider joint federal tax and redistributive policies as levers to reduce the burden of mortality in the United States.