To Tropical Cyclones Research Articles

Contributions of Barotropic Energy Conversion to Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity during ENSO

Abstract The contribution of barotropic energy conversion to tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) during warm and cold phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated by separating TC vortices from reanalysis data and using a linearized eddy kinetic energy tendency equation. By comparing the characteristics of TC disturbances with synoptic-scale disturbances, it is found that the modulation of ENSO on the WNP TC intensity is presented more objectively by using TC kinetic energy (EKETC) than eddy kinetic energy (EKE). Barotropic energy conversion (KmKe) into TC disturbances (KmKeTC) is an effective indicator in detecting the barotropic energy source of low-level cyclone genesis and maintenance during the ENSO cycle. However, its dynamical processes play different roles. Shear in large-scale zonal wind and convergence in large-scale meridional wind provide direct barotropic energy source for TC genesis, but make effects in different regions of the WNP. In contrast, convergence in large-scale zonal and shear in large-scale meridional wind exert little influence on TC genesis during ENSO.

Evolution of African Easterly Waves in Potential Vorticity Fields

Abstract The evolution of African easterly waves (AEWs) leading to tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Atlantic during 2000–08 is examined from isentropic potential vorticity (PV) and Lagrangian streamline perspectives. Tropical cyclone formation is commonly preceded by axisymmetrization of PV, scale contraction of the wave, and formation of a closed circulation within the wave. In these cases, PV associated with the synoptic-scale wave is irreversibly deformed and subsumed within the developing vortex. Less commonly, filamentation of the PV leads to separation and independent propagation of the wave and the TC vortex. In an example presented here, the remnant wave with a closed circulation persisted for several days after separation from the TC. A second TC did not result, consistent with several past studies that show that a midtropospheric closed gyre is not sufficient for TC genesis. Sometimes, an AEW and a weak TC remain coupled for a few days, followed by the dissipation of the TC and the continued propagation of the wave. Merger of tropical and extratropical PV anomalies is also often observed and likely helps maintain some waves. The results of this study are broadly consistent with recent Lagrangian analyses of AEW evolution during TC genesis.

Impact of Tropical Cyclones on the Heat Budget of the South Pacific Ocean

Abstract The present study investigates the integrated ocean response to tropical cyclones (TCs) in the South Pacific convergence zone through a complete ocean heat budget. The TC impact analysis is based on the comparison between two long-term (1979–2003) oceanic simulations forced by a mesoscale atmospheric model solution in which extreme winds associated with cyclones are either maintained or filtered. The simulations provide a statistically robust experiment that fills a gap in the current modeling literature between coarse-resolution and short-term studies. The authors’ results show a significant thermal response of the ocean to at least 500-m depth, driven by competing mixing and upwelling mechanisms. As suggested in previous studies, vertical mixing largely explains surface cooling induced by TCs. However, TC-induced upwelling of deeper waters plays an unexpected role as it partly balances the warming of subsurface waters induced by vertical mixing. Below 100 m, vertical advection results in cooling that persists long after the storm passes and has a signature in the ocean climatology. The heat lost through TC-induced vertical advection is exported outside the cyclogenesis area with strong interannual variability. In addition, 60% of the heat input below the surface during the cyclone season is released back to the oceanic mixed layer through winter entrainment and then to the atmosphere. Therefore, seasonal modulation reduces the mean surface heat flux due to TCs to about 3 × 10−3 PW in this region exposed to 10%–15% of the world’s cyclones. The resulting climatological anomaly is a warming of about 0.1°C in the subsurface layer and cooling below the thermocline (less than 0.1°C).

ADAPTATION TO CYCLONE RISK: EVIDENCE FROM THE GLOBAL CROSS-SECTION

Understanding the feasibility and cost of adaptation is essential to management of the global climate. Unfortunately, we lack general estimates of adaptive responses to almost all climatological processes. To address this for one phenomenon, we estimate the extent of adaptation to tropical cyclones (TCs) using the global cross-section of countries. We reconstruct every TC observed during 1950–2008 to parameterize countries' TC climate and year-to-year TC exposure. We then look for evidence of adaptation by comparing deaths and damages from physically similar TC events across countries with different TC climatologies. We find that countries with more intense TC climates suffer lower marginal losses from an actual TC event, indicating that adaptation to this climatological risk occurs but that it is costly. Overall, there is strong evidence that it is both feasible and cost-effective for countries with intense TC climatologies to invest heavily in adaptation. However, marginal changes from countries' current TC climates generate persistent losses, of which only ~3% is "adapted away" in the long run.

사이클론에 대한 피지의 방재력 정량화 연구

피지의 사이클론 피해 보고서를 바탕으로 사이클론에 대한 피지의 방재력을 정량적으로 측정하고 취약성을 분석해 보고자 리질리언스 비용을 활용하였다. 미국 국토안보부가 국가기반시설 리질리언스 확보 연구를 위해 고안한 리질리언스 비용은 시스템 영향과 복구노력의 합으로, 상대적 수치 비교를 통해 시나리오 간의 리질리언스를 정량적으로 비교한다. 연구 결과, 사이클론에 대한 피지의 방재력은 사이클론의 카테고리, 이동 경로, 피지 도달 시점에서의 카테고리 및 피해지역의 인구분포와 자산 등에 영향을 받으며, 특히 상업적 농업 활동의 비중이 큰 북부지역이 사이클론에 취약함을 알 수 있었다. 이는 사이클론이 북서부지역에서 주로 발생하고, 농업활동이 사이클론에 크게 영향을 받기 때문인 것으로 보인다. 본 연구의 연구 결과는 리질리언스 비용이 다양한 이해관계 속에서 긴급 지원이 필요한 곳에 우선순위를 지정하고, 취약 원인을 분석하는데 유용하게 사용될 수 있음을 보여준다. 또한 모의 기술을 통한 시나리오 평가 연구가 함께 수행될 경우, 리질리언스 비용은 최적의 복구 전략을 수립하는데도 크게 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. Resilience Cost is applied to quantitatively assess the resilience and the vulnerability of Fiji to tropical cyclones (TCs), based on historical damage data. The resilience cost, which was developed by the US Department of Homeland Security to protect critical infrastructures, is the sum of the system impact and the total recovery effort. The higher resilience cost indicates that the system is less resilient. Study results show that the resilience of Fiji to TCs depends on the strength and the path of a TC as well as inventory in affected areas. In particular, the northern division whose economy is based on commercial agriculture of sugar cane is vulnerable to TCs due to the frequency of TCs as well as the vulnerability of agriculture to TCs. This study result demonstrates that the resilience cost is a good indicator to determine a location to give priority to for resilience enhancement or recovery resources and can be used to assess causes of vulnerability. In addition, the resilience cost may be used to determine optimal recovery strategies if integrated with a modeling, simulation, and analysis program given scenario analysis capabilities.

Estimation of the damage area due to tropical cyclones using fragility curves for paddy rice in Japan

A method for estimating the area of crop damage due to tropical cyclones (TCs) by using fragility curves (FCs) is proposed. FCs, which represent the probability of damage caused by external forces, are one method considered appropriate for estimating structural damage caused by natural disasters. Here, FCs are applied to estimate the area of damage to paddy rice resulting from typhoons in Japan. The FCs for paddy rice are assumed to vary with growth stage. Statistical data on areas damaged by 42 typhoons that have struck Japan between 1991 and 2007, together with observed meteorological data, are used to derive the FCs. In general, our estimates agree with the reported areas of damage for the 42 typhoons, especially for typhoons that affected large areas of paddy rice. Moreover, from statistical data on crop damage due to typhoons, the proposed method successfully shows that the heading stage of paddy rice is the stage most vulnerable to typhoons, as found in earlier experimental studies and post-disaster investigations.

Effects of tropical cyclones in the ionosphere from data of sounding by GPS signals

The problems of recording the ionospheric response to tropical cyclones (TCs) and the possibilities for detecting such a response using GPS (Global Positioning System) signals are discussed. Investigations of ionospheric effects of tropical cyclones with the use of different geophysical methods and technologies of GPS application for remote diagnostics of the ionosphere are reviewed. The results of investigating the action of tropical cyclones on the Earth’s ionosphere on the basis of measurements of variations in the total electron content at the global network of ground-based double-frequency GPS receivers are presented. It is shown that (a) the recording of tropospheric effects in the ionosphere is associated with the difficulties of detecting weak disturbances and their identification against the general background of variations and with the problems of identification of sources of such disturbances; (b) geomagnetic storms mask the effects of tropospheric disturbances in the upper ionosphere; and (c) when identifying the ionospheric effects of tropical cyclones, one must pay the bulk of attention to the search for the enhancement of the intensity of disturbances in ionospheric parameter variations.

The Response of Quasigeostrophic Oceanic Vortices to Tropical Cyclone Forcing

Abstract The response of quasigeostrophic (QG) oceanic vortices to tropical cyclone (TC) forcing is investigated using an isopycnic ocean model. Idealized oceanic currents and wind fields derived from observational data acquired during Hurricane Katrina are used to initialize this model. It is found that the upwelling response is a function of the curl of wind-driven acceleration of oceanic mixed layer (OML) currents rather than a function of the wind stress curl. Upwelling (downwelling) regimes prevail under the TC’s eye as it translates over cyclonic (anticyclonic) QG vortices. OML cooling of ~1°C occurs over anticyclones because of the combined effects of downwelling, instantaneous turbulent entrainment over the deep warm water column (weak stratification), and vertical dispersion of near-inertial energy. By contrast, OML cooling of ~4°C occurs over cyclones due to the combined effects of upwelling, instantaneous turbulent entrainment over regions of tight vertical thermal gradients (strong stratification), and trapping of near-inertial energy that enhances vertical shear and mixing at the OML base. The rotational rate of the QG vortex affects the dispersion of near-inertial waves. As rotation is increased in both cyclones and anticyclones, the near-inertial response is shifted toward more energetic frequencies that enhance vertical shear and mixing. TC-induced temperature anomalies in QG vortices propagate westward with time, deforming the cold wake. Therefore, to accurately simulate the impact of TC-induced OML cooling and feedback mechanisms on storm intensity, coupled ocean–atmosphere TC models must resolve geostrophic ocean eddy location as well as thermal, density, and velocity structures.

Investigation into impact of tropical cyclones on the ionosphere using GPS sounding and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data

Ionospheric response to tropical cyclones (TCs) was estimated experimentally on the example of three powerful cyclones – KATRINA (23–31 August 2005), RITA (18–26 September 2005), and WILMA (15–25 October 2005). These TCs were active near the USA Atlantic coast. Investigation was based on Total Electron Content (TEC) data from the international network of two-frequency ground-based GPS receivers and the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data. We studied the spatial–temporal dynamics of wave TEC disturbances over two periods of ranges (02–20 min and 20–60 min). To select the ionospheric disturbances which were most likely to be associated with the cyclones, maps of TEC disturbances were compared with those of meteorological parameters.

Re-examination of trends related to tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific basin

In order to re-examine some trends related to tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific since 1949, the unreliable maximum sustained wind (V max) recorded in the 1949–1978 TC best-track data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute was modified based on the wind-pressure relationships (WPRs) in this study. Compared to the WPR scheme based on the cyclostrophic balance, the WPR scheme based on the gradient balance could give a better fit to TCs under higher wind speeds and could introduce smaller estimated errors for TCs locating at higher latitudes as well as TCs landing on the continent. After the Vmax modification based on minimum sea-level pressure and TC center latitude, the revised annual number of category 4–5 typhoons shows no long-term trend, while the potential destructiveness measured by power-dissipation index decreases slightly, and this trend is not significant in the period 1949–2008.

Modeled sensitivity of upper thermocline properties to tropical cyclone winds and possible feedbacks on the Hadley circulation

The sensitivity of upper thermocline properties, and global climate, to tropical cyclone (TC) winds is examined using global ocean and atmosphere general circulation models. We combine seven years of global, satellite‐based TC wind records with a standard surface wind input data set derived from reanalysis, and we apply idealized factors to TC winds in order to model the ocean's equilibrium response to increases in TC intensities. We find TC‐induced vertical ocean mixing impacts upper thermocline properties, such as temperature and mixed layer depth, and the effects are amplified for increasing intensities. The model's ocean heat transport is also affected, but only when TC winds are increased substantially compared to present‐day values. Atmospheric model simulations show altered ocean temperature can lead to changes in the mean Hadley circulation. Results suggest increased TC activity may affect global climate by altering the ocean's thermal structure, which could be important for large scale ocean‐atmosphere feedbacks.

Verification of Tropical Cyclone–Related Satellite Precipitation Estimates in Mainland China

Abstract To evaluate the abilities of satellite retrievals in reflecting precipitation features related to tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting mainland China, four years of 6- and 24-h precipitation retrievals from three datasets, namely the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite algorithm 3B42, version 6 (3B42), Climate Prediction Center morphed (CMORPH) product, and one based on the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite-5 infrared brightness temperature (GMS5-TBB), are compared statistically with direct measurements from surface gauge rainfall data during the periods affected by TCs. The GMS5-TBB dataset was set up by a method of considering the GMS5-TBB characteristics, hourly precipitation intensity, and horizontal distribution for landfalling TCs. The results show that in a general sense, all three satellite-retrieved rainfall datasets give quite reasonable 6- and 24-h rainfall distributions, with skill decreasing with the increase in both latitude and rainfall amount. The 3B42 has a little bit better skill than CMORPH, which is likely related to the fact that the 3B42 product has a rain gauge adjustment and CMORPH does not. Further analyses show that both 3B42 and CMORPH considerably underestimate the moderate and heavy rainfall and overestimate the very light precipitation. The overestimation of the GMS5-TBB data for the light rain is larger than that for 3B42 and CMORPH, probably due to the fact that the GMS5-TBB method considers stratiform and convective rainfall separately with a fixed stratiform rain rate of 2 mm h−1. For the heavy rainfall events, the GMS5-TBB data perform much better than the 3B42 and CMORPH data with an almost halved bias, owing to the fact that the GMS5-TBB method adopted the adjustment of the convective rain rate by considering TBB characteristics of landfalling TCs and using hourly gauge rainfall in the setup process. Since the heavy rainfall events associated with landfalling TCs are of the most concern, the compared GMS5-TBB data could be useful as an operational/research reference.

Comment on “Importance of pre‐existing oceanic conditions to upper ocean response induced by Super Typhoon Hai‐Tang” by Z.‐W. Zheng, C.‐R. Ho, and N.‐J. Kuo

[1] Understanding the impact of pre-existing oceanic conditions on the upper ocean response to tropical cyclones (TCs) is one of the important issues for understanding the short-term occurrence of TC-ocean interaction and its impact on TC intensity. Zheng et al. [2008] showed that preexisting cyclonic flow represented by negative sea-surface height anomalies (SSHA) played a crucial role in enhancing sea-surface cooling (SSC) caused by Typhoon Hai-Tang in 2005. On the other hand, the impact of initial oceanic mixedlayer depth and the vertical sea-temperature gradient in the thermocline on the amplitude of SSC has been considered to be small compared with that of the Ekman pumping and entrainment/vertical turbulent mixing [e.g., Wada, 2002]. Therefore, we hardly accept the discussion of Zheng et al. [2008] that the impact of Ekman pumping on SSC is less significant for local SSC occurred in certain areas than that of pre-existing oceanic condition. [2] Zheng et al. [2008] provide no quantitative evidence that SSC caused by the passage of Hai-Tang is irrelevant to the Ekman pumping or that the amplitude of SSC caused by the Ekman pumping is negligibly smaller than that due to relatively low sea surface height (SSH). In this paper, we revisit the relationship between SSC and SSH using a daily oceanic reanalysis dataset [Wada and Usui, 2007] produced by the North Pacific version of the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute Multivariate Ocean Variational Estimation system (MOVE) [Usui et al., 2006] in section 2. In section 3, we revisit the impact of the pre-existing oceanic condition on the ocean response to HaiTang using the Argo profiling float data. Section 4 presents our concluding remarks.

Northwest Pacific typhoons documented by the Philippine Jesuits, 1566–1900

In recent years, the population and the value of properties in areas prone to tropical cyclone (TC) have increased dramatically. This has caused more attention to be placed on the characterization of TC climatologies and the identification of the role that factors such as the main teleconnection patterns may play in TC variability. Due to the timescales involved, the instrumental records have proven too short to provide a complete picture. Thus, documentary and other paleoclimatological techniques have been used to reconstruct TC occurrence. This has been done mostly for the Atlantic basin, whereas in the Pacific basin, fewer attempts have been made. The aim of this paper is to provide a high‐resolution chronology of typhoons and intense storms occurring in the Philippine Islands and their vicinity for the period 1566–1900. The chronology is based upon the writings of the Spanish Jesuit Miguel Selga, who produced the original work at the beginning of the 20th century. The sources, reliability, and completeness of the chronology are examined critically. A total of 652 events are included, 524 of which are reported as typhoons, the rest being considered as tropical storms. For each of these classes, the landfall location and the track (when sufficient information is available) have been drawn. This chronology is an indispensable step toward a final and complete typhoon record in the western Pacific basin.

The Role of Baroclinic Processes in Tropical Cyclone Motion: The influence of Vertical Tilt

Abstract The numerical study presented here focuses on baroclinic processes that contribute to tropical cyclone (TC) propagation. A three-dimensional, semispectral, primitive equation model of baroclinic vortex was developed to study TC motion. In a tilted vortex, interaction between upper- and lower-level vorticity anomalies leads to vortex propagation relative to the steering flow. On a, β plane, with no environmental flow, the vortex is tilted toward the south and the interaction between the layers reduces the westward movement of the vortex. The vortex tilting can also occur due to the vertical shear in the environmental wind. On an f plane, the interaction between the layers causes the northward movement of the vortex in westerly linear shear, and southward movement in easterly linear shear, with a meridional velocity of about 1 m s−1. Ibis velocity increases with increasing vortex intensity and vertical motion.