Tide Gauge Data Research Articles

Measuring Coastal Absolute Sea-Level Changes Using GNSS Interferometric Reflectometry

Rising sea levels pose one of the greatest threats to coastal zones. However, sea-level changes near the coast, particularly absolute sea-level changes, have been less well monitored than those in the open ocean. In this study, we aim to investigate the potential of Global Navigation Satellite Systems Interferometric Reflectometry (GNSS-IR) to measure coastal absolute sea-level changes and tie on-land (coastal GNSS) and offshore (satellite altimetry) observations into the same framework. We choose three coastal GNSS stations, one each in regions of subsidence, uplift and stable vertical land motions, to derive both relative sea levels and sea surface heights (SSH) above the satellite altimetry reference ellipsoid from 2008 to 2020. Our results show that the accuracy of daily mean sea levels from GNSS-IR is <1.5 cm compared with co-located tide-gauge records, and amplitudes of annual cycle and linear trends estimated from GNSS-IR measurements and tide-gauge data agree within uncertainty. We also find that the de-seasoned and de-trended SSH time series from GNSS-IR and collocated satellite altimetry are highly correlated and the estimated annual amplitudes and linear trends statistically agree well, indicating that GNSS-IR has the potential to monitor coastal absolute sea-level changes and provide valuable information for coastal sea-level and climate studies.

Quasi-biweekly oscillation in sea level along the western Bay of Bengal

This study investigates the variability and sources of Quasi-Biweekly (QB) oscillation (10–20 days) in coastal sea level along the western boundary of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) using tide-gauge data and simulations from a very high-resolution regional model. Observations show most significant spectral energy in the QB band (∼12 days) exists in the northernmost location (Paradeep) with an amplitude of about 5–10 cm in sea level and energy in this band decreases equatorward along the coast. The QB oscillations in sea level contribute up to 16%–36% of the total subtidal sea-level variability in the western BoB and these oscillations are more pronounced during June–November. It is observed that sea-level oscillations in the QB band propagate equatorward along the east coast of India as coastal-trapped waves with a phase speed of about 2–4 ms−1 and this speed is consistent with the theoretical estimates. Our study revealed that the strong QB winds found in the northern BoB are one of the forcing factors that excite QB oscillation in sea level in the western BoB. Further analysis using numerical simulations shows that the QB sea level propagating from the equatorial Indian Ocean and QB oscillation generated by strong winds associated with the tropical cyclones formed in the BoB also contribute to QB coastal sea-level fluctuations in this region.

Atmospherically forced sea-level variability in western Hudson Bay, Canada

Abstract. In recent years, significant trends toward earlier breakup and later freeze-up of sea ice in Hudson Bay have led to a considerable increase in shipping activity through the Port of Churchill, which is located in western Hudson Bay and is the only deep-water ocean port in the province of Manitoba. Therefore, understanding sea-level variability at the port is an urgent issue crucial for safe navigation and coastal infrastructure. Using tidal gauge data from the port along with an atmospheric reanalysis and Churchill River discharge, we assess environmental factors impacting synoptic to seasonal variability of sea level at Churchill. An atmospheric vorticity index used to describe the wind forcing was found to correlate with sea level at Churchill. Statistical analyses show that, in contrast to earlier studies, local discharge from the Churchill River can only explain up to 5 % of the sea-level variability. The cyclonic wind forcing contributes from 22 % during the ice-covered winter–spring season to 30 % during the ice-free summer–fall season due to cyclone-induced storm surges generated along the coast. Multiple regression analysis revealed that wind forcing and local river discharge combined can explain up to 32 % of the sea-level variability at Churchill. Our analysis further revealed that the seasonal cycle of sea level at Churchill appears to be impacted by the seasonal cycle in atmospheric circulation rather than by the seasonal cycle in local discharge from the Churchill River, particularly post-construction of the Churchill River diversion in 1977. Sea level at Churchill shows positive anomalies for September–November compared to June–August. This seasonal difference was also revealed for the entire Hudson Bay coast using satellite-derived sea-level altimetry. This anomaly was associated with enhanced cyclonic atmospheric circulation during fall, reaching a maximum in November, which forced storm surges along the coast. Complete sea-ice cover during winter impedes momentum transfer from wind stress to the water column, reducing the impact of wind forcing on sea-level variability. Expanding our observations to the bay-wide scale, we confirmed the process of wind-driven sea-level variability with (i) tidal-gauge data from eastern Hudson Bay and (ii) satellite altimetry measurements. Ultimately, we find that cyclonic winds generate sea-level rise along the western and eastern coasts of Hudson Bay at the synoptic and seasonal timescales, suggesting an amplification of the bay-wide cyclonic geostrophic circulation in fall (October–November), when cyclonic vorticity is enhanced, and Hudson Bay is ice-free.

Trends and inter-annual variability of altimetry-based coastal sea level in the Mediterranean Sea: Comparison with tide gauges and models

In the framework of the Coastal sea level project of the ESA Climate Change Initiative, a new coastal sea level product from the Jason-1, 2 and 3 missions over 2002–2018 has been made recently available. This product consists of along-track, high-resolution (20 Hz, i.e., ~350 m) sea level anomalies and coastal sea level trends derived from a complete reprocessing of the Jason altimetry data, including a retracking of the radar waveforms using the ALES (Adaptive Leading Edge Sub-waveform) retracker, in several coastal regions worldwide. In this study, we extend the assessment of this coastal sea level product in the Mediterranean Sea region by comparing with tide gauge data where available. We selected a set of 14 coastal sites where the distance between the Jason track at the coast is less than 30 km from a tide gauge for which the in-situ record at least partly covers the 2002-present time span. In a first part of this study, we compared the interannual variability and trends of the coastal sea level anomalies and of the tide gauge data. A good agreement is found between the altimetry-based sea level time series and the tide gauge data at interannual time scales. In terms of trends, the comparison also shows general good agreement within the respective uncertainties. In a second part of this study, we focus on the Senetosa site (south Corsica) where a significant altimetry-based sea level trend increase is observed in the last 3–4 km to the coast, and investigate which physical process could explain this trend behavior. We analyzed temperature and salinity data of the high-resolution (400 m) MARS3D model, available around Corsica over the January 2014 - December 2019 time span, and computed the steric sea level component and its trend along the Jason track. A clear steric sea level trend increase is found in the last 3–4 km to the coast. Although the MARS3D model does not provide outputs prior to 2014, we suggest that if the steric sea level trend increase found over 2014–2019 is a long-life time feature, it has the right amplitude to explain the altimetry-based coastal sea level trend increase observed at Senetosa.

An Investigation into Sea Level Rise in Sri Lankan Waters with Satellite AltimetryCorrected version of this article has been publshed under the section "Corrigendum" in the same issue on 15th October

Most of the socio-economic activities of Sri Lanka are centred in the coastal regions, which can be described according to its unique geographical and geophysical backgrounds. It is estimated that Sri Lanka has a shore line about 1,700 km in length. Therefore, better knowledge and understanding of the characteristics of sea level is very essential. The sea level has traditionally been measured mainly at tide gauges set up along the coast line. However, the number of tide gauge stations is few and sparse in most countries. But, with the advancements of satellite altimetry technology, it is now accepted as an alternative technique to study regional and global sea level changes. The basic concept in altimetry is the range measurements to the water surface measured from the altimeter antenna. The surface of the sea, or sea level, is continuously changing for many reasons. Here, some changes are fast whereas others occur gradually. Among them, some factors are natural causes, while others occur due to man-made activities such as the greenhouse effect. These changes can be regional or extend at a global scale. The main aim of this research was to examine the trends in sea level rise around the Sri Lankan coastline using two decades of satellite altimetry data from 1993 to 2012. The computed sea level rise trends around Sri Lanka is around 2.5 to 3 mm per year, with a variance of +/- 0.6 mm accuracy. The obtained trend of sea level rise from the altimetry data was validated with tide gauge data in Colombo, and found to be highly correlated, with a correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.93 for annual mean sea level. This study confirms that satellite altimetry can be successfully used to investigate the long term sea level trend studies, particularly in the absence of long term tide data.

Comprehensive Observational Features for the Kuroshio Transport Decreasing Trend During a Recent Global Warming Hiatus

AbstractLinear trends in Kuroshio transport during a recent global warming hiatus (1998–2013) were evaluated using long‐term ferryboat ADCP (acoustic Doppler current profiler) data and tidal gauge data in the Tokara Strait south of Japan. The Kuroshio exhibited a remarkable weakening trend of approximately 0.05 Sv year−1 (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1). The pycnocline in the weakened Kuroshio was relaxed and displayed shoaling at the offshore edge, which was attributed to vertical thermocline displacement rather than to water mass modification. Importantly, Kuroshio transport trends in the Tokara Strait were affected by sea surface height anomalies, which were driven by the combined effects of the clockwise baroclinic‐mode coastal trapped wave propagation along the southern coast of Japan and downstream Kuroshio advection in the East China Sea. Both features were induced by wind stress curl changes related to the global warming hiatus over the North Pacific.

Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article)

Abstract. The city of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In the past ∼150 years, this was characterized by an average rate of relative sea-level rise of about 2.5 mm/year resulting from the combined contributions of vertical land movement and sea-level rise. This literature review reassesses and synthesizes the progress achieved in quantification, understanding and prediction of the individual contributions to local relative sea level, with a focus on the most recent studies. Subsidence contributed to about half of the historical relative sea-level rise in Venice. The current best estimate of the average rate of sea-level rise during the observational period from 1872 to 2019 based on tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence effects is 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year. A higher – but more uncertain – rate of sea-level rise is observed for more recent years. Between 1993 and 2019, an average change of about +2.76 ± 1.75 mm/year is estimated from tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence. Unfortunately, satellite altimetry does not provide reliable sea-level data within the Venice Lagoon. Local sea-level changes in Venice closely depend on sea-level variations in the Adriatic Sea, which in turn are linked to sea-level variations in the Mediterranean Sea. Water mass exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar and its drivers currently constitute a source of substantial uncertainty for estimating future deviations of the Mediterranean mean sea-level trend from the global-mean value. Regional atmospheric and oceanic processes will likely contribute significant interannual and interdecadal future variability in Venetian sea level with a magnitude comparable to that observed in the past. On the basis of regional projections of sea-level rise and an understanding of the local and regional processes affecting relative sea-level trends in Venice, the likely range of atmospherically corrected relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 ranges between 32 and 62 cm for the RCP2.6 scenario and between 58 and 110 cm for the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. A plausible but unlikely high-end scenario linked to strong ice-sheet melting yields about 180 cm of relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100. Projections of human-induced vertical land motions are currently not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they have the potential to produce a significant contribution to the relative sea-level rise in Venice, exacerbating the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level changes.

Integrated Analysis of the Combined Risk of Ground Subsidence, Sea Level Rise, and Natural Hazards in Coastal and Delta River Regions

Non-climate-related anthropogenic processes and frequently encountered natural hazards exacerbate the risk in coastal zones and megacities and amplify local vulnerability. Coastal risk is amplified by the combination of sea level rise (SLR) resulting from climate change, associated tidal evolution, and the local sinking of land resulting from anthropogenic and natural hazards. In this framework, the authors of this investigation have actively contributed to the joint European Space Agency (ESA) and the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) Dragon IV initiative through a project (ID. 32294) that was explicitly designed to address the issue of monitoring coastal and delta river regions through Earth Observation (EO) technologies. The project’s primary goals were to provide a complete characterization of the changes in target scenes over time and provide estimates of future regional sea level changes to derive submerged coastal areas and wave fields. Suggestions are also provided for implementing coastal protection measures in order to adapt and mitigate the multifactor coastal vulnerability. In order to achieve these tasks, well-established remote sensing technologies based on the joint exploitation of multi-spectral information gathered at different spectral wavelengths, the exploitation of advanced Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) techniques for the retrieval of ground deformations, the realization of geophysical analyses, and the use of satellite altimeters and tide gauge data have effectively been employed. The achieved results, which mainly focus on selected sensitive regions including the city of Shanghai, the Pearl River Delta in China, and the coastal city of Saint Petersburg in Europe, provide essential assets for planning present and future scientific activities devoted to monitoring such fragile environments. These analyses are crucial for assessing the factors that will amplify the vulnerability of low-elevation coastal zones.

Estimation of the non-exceedance probability of extreme storm surges in South Korea using tidal-gauge data

Abstract. Global warming, one of the most serious aspects of climate change, can be expected to cause rising sea levels. These have in turn been linked to unprecedentedly large typhoons that can cause flooding of low-lying land, coastal invasion, seawater flows into rivers and groundwater, rising river levels, and aberrant tides. To prevent typhoon-related loss of life and property damage, it is crucial to accurately estimate storm-surge risk. This study therefore develops a statistical model for estimating such surges' probability based on surge data pertaining to Typhoon Maemi, which struck South Korea in 2003. Specifically, estimation of non-exceedance probability models of the typhoon-related storm surge was achieved via clustered separated peaks-over-threshold simulation, while various distribution models were fitted to the empirical data for investigating the risk of storm surges reaching particular heights. To explore the non-exceedance probability of extreme storm surges caused by typhoons, a threshold algorithm with clustering methodology was applied. To enhance the accuracy of such non-exceedance probability, the surge data were separated into three different components: predicted water level, observed water level, and surge. Sea-level data from when Typhoon Maemi struck were collected from a tidal-gauge station in the city of Busan, which is vulnerable to typhoon-related disasters due to its geographical characteristics. Fréchet, gamma, log-normal, generalized Pareto, and Weibull distributions were fitted to the empirical surge data, and the researchers compared each one's performance at explaining the non-exceedance probability. This established that Weibull distribution was better than any of the other distributions for modelling Typhoon Maemi's peak total water level. Although this research was limited to one city on the Korean Peninsula and one extreme weather event, its approach could be used to reliably estimate non-exceedance probabilities in other regions where tidal-gauge data are available. In practical terms, the findings of this study and future ones adopting its methodology will provide a useful reference for designers of coastal infrastructure.

Mapping Atmospheric Exposure of the Intertidal Zone with Sentinel-1 CSAR in Northern Norway

The intertidal zone (ITZ) is a highly dynamic and diverse coastal ecosystem under pressure that provides important eco-services. Being periodically under water makes it challenging to monitor, and the only possibility to map it in all tidal stages is by using dense time series of observations. At high latitudes, the Sentinel-1 (S1) constellation of the European Copernicus Program consistently provides radar imagery at fixed times on a near-daily basis, independently of cloud cover and sunlight. As tides have a period of 12 h 25.2 min, 1–2 year long S1 time series are therefore able to sample the whole tidal range and, thus, map the percentage of atmospheric exposure of the ITZ, which is an important environmental parameter. Tidal reference levels of mean high/low water at spring, mean and neap tide correspond each to specific percentiles of tidal heights and inversely correspond to atmospheric exposure. The presented method maps atmospheric exposure on the basis of purely statistical analyses of Sentinel-1 time series without the need for any tidal gauge data, by extracting water lines via simple thresholding of radar backscatter percentiles images. The individual thresholds for the second, fifth, 25th, 50th, 75th, 95th, and 98th percentile image were determined by fitting the threshold contour lines to in situ water line GPS tracks collected at corresponding tidal reference levels at five locations around Tromsø in Northern Norway. They inversely correspond to atmospheric exposures of 98%, 95%, 75%, 50%, 25%, 5%, and 2%, respectively. The method was applied to the whole Tromsø Municipality resulting in an ITZ atmospheric exposure map. The validation shows that the mean low water lines at neap, mid, and spring tide were mapped with accuracies of 93%, 84%, and 64%, respectively. The overall approach should be applicable worldwide.

Multidecadal Sea Level Variability in the Baltic Sea and Its Impact on Acceleration Estimations

Multidecadal sea level variation in the Baltic Sea is investigated from 1900 to 2020 deploying satellite and in situ datasets. As a part of this investigation, nearly 30 years of satellite altimetry data are used to compare with tide gauge data in terms of linear trend. This, in turn, leads to validation of the regional uplift model developed for the Fennoscandia. The role of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in multidecadal variations of the Baltic Sea is also analyzed. Although NAO impacts the Baltic Sea level on seasonal to decadal time scales according to previous studies, it is not a pronounced factor in the multidecadal variations. The acceleration in the sea level rise of the basin is reported as statistically insignificant in recent studies or even decelerating in an investigation of the early 1990s. It is shown that the reason for these results relates to the global warming hiatus in the 1950s−1970s, which can be seen in all eight tide gauges used for this study. To account for the slowdown period, the acceleration in the basin is investigated by fitting linear trends to time spans of six to seven decades, which include the hiatus. These results imply that the sea level rise is accelerated in the Baltic Sea during the period 1900–2020.

Inundation characteristics of mangrove and saltmarsh in micro-tidal estuaries

Tidal inundation is a principal driver in intertidal wetland functioning. A combination of surface elevation and its relation to tidal range creates inundation regimes that influence a range of abiotic factors that affect wetland species distribution. Hydroperiod is a term frequently used to describe inundation regimes; however, the term has been vaguely defined in the past and typically quantified using tide gauge data rather than empirical field observations. This study explores relationships between various characteristics, such as frequency, total duration, average duration, average depth, non-tidal exposure, and mangrove/saltmarsh distribution in micro-tidal estuarine settings of southeast Australia. Inundation was measured directly using 35 pressure transducers embedded into mangrove and saltmarsh substrates over a period of two lunar tidal cycles along six transects located at Clyde and Minnamurra River estuaries, New South Wales, Australia. Results indicated differences in wetland inundation characteristics between mangrove and saltmarsh that are a function of wetland microtopography and site-specific tidal regime (e.g. local tidal range). For example, mangroves were inundated approximately 15–70% of the time, and 0.9–2 times a day, whereas saltmarshes were submerged only <15% of the time and less than 0.9 times per day. Comparison of direct field measurements and tide gauge-derived estimates of wetland inundation regime revealed that nearby gauge data may provide an acceptable estimate; however, distant tide gauge data provided poor estimates due to the effect of tidal dampening and amplification, respectively. Detailed analysis of wetland inundation characteristics as presented in this study demonstrates a method for describing inundation regimes at local scale. Improved understanding of contemporary tidal inundation dynamics in mangrove and saltmarsh can support modelling of wetland response to sea-level rise, as well as restoration practises by providing estimates of inundation tolerances.

Analysis of bay bathymetry elements on wave amplification: a case study of the tsunami in Palu Bay

ABSTRACT This research was inspired by the deadly tsunami that struck Palu Bay, Sulawesi, Indonesia on September 28, 2018. High waves were observed not only at the bay’s head but also in several other locations along the bay. This high amplification is most likely influenced by Palu Bay’s bathymetry and the underwater sill in front of Palu City. The numerical simulations of the two-dimensional shallow water equations were used to investigate these aspects. The numerical scheme is validated first with analytical solutions of standing waves in a parabolic bay, as a model of Palu Bay. The results show a significant amplification at the bay’s head, as a result of the bay’s reduced cross-sectional area. Some amplifications were also observed along the channel sides, and the role of the underwater sill was also investigated. Next, we carried out simulations with the actual Palu Bay bathymetry and a hypothetical tsunami $N-$wave and/or Gaussian humps. The simulation result depicts extremely high waves recorded along the Palu Bay coastline, which is consistent with the field survey; additionally, the wave signal at Pantoloan corresponds reasonably well to the tide gauge data. These findings indicate that Palu Bay’s bathymetry plays an important role in local wave amplification.

Characterizing the Non-linear Interactions Between Tide, Storm Surge, and River Flow in the Delaware Bay Estuary, United States

Low-lying coastal areas in the mid-Atlantic region are prone to compound flooding resulting from the co-occurrence of river floods and coastal storm surges. To better understand the contribution of non-linear tide-surge-river interactions to compound flooding, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was applied to simulate coastal storm surge and flooding in the Delaware Bay Estuary in the United States. The model was validated with tide gauge data in the estuary for selected hurricane events. Non-linear interactions between tide-surge-river were investigated using a non-stationary tidal analysis method, which decomposes the interactions’ components at the frequency domain. Model results indicated that tide-river interactions damped semidiurnal tides, while the tide-surge interactions mainly influenced diurnal tides. Tide-river interactions suppressed the water level upstream while tide-surge interaction increased the water level downstream, which resulted in a transition zone of damping and enhancing effects where the tide-surge-river interaction was prominent. Evident compound flooding was observed as a result of non-linear tide-surge-river interactions. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was carried out to evaluate the effect of river flooding on the non-linear interactions. The transition zone of damping and enhancing effects shifted downstream as the river flow rate increased.

Evaluation and Correction of Elevation Angle Influence for Coastal GNSS-R Ocean Altimetry

The elevation angle influence on coastal GNSS-R ocean code-based altimetry for GPS signals (L1 C/A and L5) and BDS B1 signals is investigated, and the corresponding correction method is presented. The study first focuses on the coastal ocean altimetry method, including the general experiment geometry and the code delay estimation using the single-point tracking algorithm. The peak power and the maximum first derivative are used as the location of the specular point. Then, the sensitivity of the height retrieved using the above coastal ocean altimetry method to elevation angle is analyzed based on the Z-V model. It can be seen that the elevation angle has a significant influence on the height retrieval, which will affect the precision of the coastal GNSS-R ocean altimetry. Finally, two correction methods, the model-driven method and the data-driven method, are proposed. The coastal altimetry experiments demonstrate that the correction methods can correct the elevation angle influence, and the data-driven method is more effective. The experimental results show that, after correcting the elevation angle influence, the code-based altimetry precision of the GPS L1 C/A signal, L5 signal, and BDS B1 signal can be up to the meter level, decimeter level (less than 4 decimeters), and meter level with respect to a reference tide gauge (TG) data set, respectively, without smoothing over time. These results provide information to guide the sea surface height retrieval using coastal GNSS-R, especially multi-satellite observation and GNSS signal with a higher chipping rate.

Seasonal and long-term sea-level variations and their forcing factors in the northern Bay of Bengal: A statistical analysis of temperature, salinity, wind stress curl, and regional climate index data

In the northern Bay of Bengal, mechanisms of seasonal sea-level variation have not previously been examined, and the understanding of longer-term inter-annual sea-level variation is also not concrete. These parameters are addressed in this study utilizing available tide gauge and satellite altimetry data. The contribution of steric sea level to seasonal and longer-term inter-annual sea-level variations is quantified, and statistical analysis is performed to determine the correlations of various atmospheric and oceanic factors with sea level. This study suggests that the trend of sea-level rise in this bay (4 ± 1.33 mm/year) is higher than the global average (3.32 ± 0.46 mm/year) for the studied period 1993 to 2018. The rate of sea-level rise is higher along the coast than in the offshore area and the highest in the central part of the coast. Sea level shows a strong seasonal variation: sea level is the lowest in the winter but the highest in autumn. The contribution from the thermosteric sea level is higher to the observed sea level from winter to early summer, whereas contributions from the halosteric sea level and wind stress curl are higher during autumn. Long-term variations in sea level show strong positive correlations with thermosteric sea level, indicating that temperature is a major local controlling factor for sea-level change. In addition to local factors, long-term sea level also varies by remote forcing (equatorial zonal wind stress), which explains approximately 36 % of the sea-level variation in this bay. Sea level is low during the combined events of positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and El Niño, whereas the sea level is high during the combined events of negative IOD and La Niña. This study provides an improved understanding of seasonal and longer-term inter-annual variations of sea level and the necessary groundworks for a dedicated model study to further quantify all the components of the sea-level budget in the study areas.

Understanding Sea Level Processes During Western Mediterranean Storm Gloria

In January 2020, the storm Gloria hit the Western Mediterranean Sea causing severe coastal damages, destruction of infrastructures, flooding and several casualties. This extreme event was characterized by strong Eastern winds, record-breaking waves heights and periods, and a storm surge that locally beat the record along Valencia’s coastline. This paper analyses the dynamic evolution of sea level during this storm. The study employs both the in situ data and the operational forecasts of the PORTUS early warning system. Tide gauge data are analyzed on the different temporal scales that contribute to total sea level: long-term and seasonal, tides and storm surges, and higher frequency oscillations. It was found that, due to the unusual long wave periods, infragravity waves were generated and dominate the high frequency energy band, contributing significantly to extreme sea level records. This is a relevant finding, since this kind of oscillations are usually associated with larger basins, where swell can develop and propagate. The impact of sea level rise is also analyzed and considered relevant. A multi-model ensemble storm surge forecasting system is employed to study the event. The system was able to correctly forecast the surge, and the measured data were always inside the confidence bands of the system. The differences of the results obtained by the available operational forecasting system integrated into the ensemble, including those from Copernicus Marine Service, are described. All the models provided useful forecasts during the event, but differences with measured data are described and connected with the known limitations in physics (for example, barotropic vs. baroclinic) and set-up of the models (model domain, lack of tides and different inverse barometer implementations at the open boundaries amongst others).

Analysis of prediction of sea level rise impact based on tidal gauge and altimetry satellite on land cover area of Saparua Island, Maluku, Indonesia

The sea level rise phenomenon can threaten the environmental, social, and economical aspect of the coastal area. Human activities and other living beings in small islands are very dependent on the resources that are available in the islands. Indonesia as the largest archipelagic state in the world that has 17,508 islands with 99,8% of them are small islands will be directly affected by the phenomenon, which is the submergence of the islands. This research aims to determine the sea level rise trend in Saparua Island using tidal data that are obtained from tide gauge and altimetry satellite. A 12-years tide gauge data and 17-years Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) value of altimetry satellite are used in the research. The monthly average in a 12-years range of tidal station data is calculated to obtain sea level rise trend, meanwhile SLA value from the altimetry satellite observation in the form of satellite footprint is interpolated to get the SLA value across the water area as the sea level rise parameter of altimetry satellite. Then, sea level rise trend will be use to predict the impact of the sea level rise based on topographical condition of Saparua Island. Using those methods, the sea level rise value will be obtained from tide gauge and altimetry satellite in a millimeter orde.

Estimating Vertical Land Motion and Residual Altimeter Systematic Errors Using a Kalman‐Based Approach

AbstractVertical land motion (VLM) is the connection between absolute sea‐level (ASL) from a satellite altimeter (ALT) and relative sea‐level from a tide gauge (TG). VLM is often sparsely observed yet is required for understanding sea‐level rise. Many studies have sought to exploit ALT and TG data to infer VLM, yet regionally correlated systematic errors in altimetry have not been considered. We have developed a Kalman filtering and smoothing framework to simultaneously estimate location‐specific VLM and residual mission‐specific systematic errors in a geocentric reference frame. We used ALT minus TG, ALT crossovers and global positioning system (GPS) bedrock height observations in a multi‐stage solution approach that gradually separated time‐variable parameter estimates in an ill‐posed problem. We evaluated the performance of the method using the Jason‐series along‐track data in the Baltic Sea, where glacial isostatic adjustment is the dominant driver of VLM. We estimated local VLM variability at TGs of up to ∼4.5 mm/yr which is not evident in spatially interpolated GPS velocities. The estimated regional altimeter errors are significant and within the range of ∼±0.5–2.5 mm/yr. Our approach improves agreement between ASL estimates from ALT and TG records, provides a ∼20% decrease in root mean squared error of latitudinal ASL variability at TGs, and a reduction of the ASL rate from altimetry by ∼0.3 mm/yr across the region. This method advances the ALT‐TG approach to determining VLM at TG locations and systematic errors of altimetry, which is broadly applicable to other regional‐ and global‐scale studies.

More than a nuisance: measuring how sea level rise delays commuters in Miami, FL

Sea level rise increases coastal cities’ exposure to tidal flooding and elevates the risk of transportation routes being compromised at high tide. Using Miami, Florida as a case study, we combine tide gauge, elevation, road network, and worker location data with a route optimization algorithm to model how tidal flooding affected commute times between 2002–2004 and 2015–2017. Results suggest tidal flooding increases annual commutes by 15 min on average and 274 min among the most heavily impacted areas. Additionally, approximately 14 000 commuters may be unable to reach their workplace due to tidal flooding at least once per year. Accommodation via dynamic adjustments in residential and work locations may reduce tidal commuting delays by as much as 70%, particularly among the highest earners. Many of the most affected areas do not experience flooding directly, expanding the purview of vulnerability beyond simple residential risk. Using 2060 extreme sea-level rise scenarios without accommodating behavior, mean annual commute delays are expected to reach 220 min with over 55 000 commuters potentially unable to reach their destinations.