Epidemic Threat Research Articles

Fasciolous invasion as a sanitary and hygienic threat to the population and animal husbandry in the subjects of the Caspian region of Russia

Introduction. WHO considers human fascioliasis to be a global epidemic threat of a parasitic nature.
 Materials and methods. The studies were carried out using methods of in vivo diagnostics used in medical and veterinary parasitology (the method of successive washings of feces; the Fülleborn method or the flotation-sedimentation method by Demidov) in relation to samples of feces and soils. In total, in six subjects of Russia to study the spread of fascioliasis in animals in the conditions of slaughterhouses, there were examine the liver in 1800 heads of slaughter sheep, 700 heads of goats, 1000 heads of cows and only 6000 soil samples for the detection of Fasciola hepatica eggs.
 In 2011–2019, medical services of 6 subjects of the Caspian region in 21 settlements carried out scatological diagnostics of the population aged 8 to 65 years, in the amount of 25 thousand people, to clarify the incidence of human fascioliasis. The results of the studies were statistically processed according to the method of N.A. Plokhinsky using the software Microsoft Excel 2008. The occurrence index – the percentage of individuals or eggs of F. hepatica in relation to the total number of examined objects – was based on monitoring and analysis of reports from regional divisions of the Federal Service 
 for Supervision in Protection of the Rights of Consumer and Man Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) and the Department of Veterinary Medicine of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia for 2011–2019.
 Results. Coproovoscopy of 25 thousand samples of faeces for the presence of eggs of the pathogen of fascioliasis, taken from the population of 21 cities of the Caspian region of the Russian Federation, revealed their absence. The trend in the index of occurrence of goat fascioliasis in 2011–2019. had an annual growth trend of 0.03%; in sheep by 0.06%; in cattle by 0.05%, which also characterizes the lack of control measures.
 In 6 Republics of the Caspian region, the indices of occurrence and abundance of fascioliasis in goats, sheep and cows increased by 2–2.5 times, which indicates the threat of invasion to the development of livestock industries. Soil samples taken for research were contaminated with invasive elements of Fasciola hepatica in 100% of cases.
 Conclusion. The occurrence and abundance indices of F. hepatica eggs were found to be 0, which indicates epidemic well-being in relation to zoonosis. Research conducted indicate to the gain in the incidence index of fascioliasis in goats, sheep, and cows. The 100% contamination of the territories of rural pastures and remote mountain pastures with invasive elements of Fasciola hepatica is a biological and sanitary-hygienic threat to livestock and the population of the Caspian region of Russia.

An implementation framework to improve the transparency and reproducibility of computational models of infectious diseases.

Computational models of infectious diseases have become valuable tools for research and the public health response against epidemic threats. The reproducibility of computational models has been limited, undermining the scientific process and possibly trust in modeling results and related response strategies, such as vaccination. We translated published reproducibility guidelines from a wide range of scientific disciplines into an implementation framework for improving reproducibility of infectious disease computational models. The framework comprises 22 elements that should be described, grouped into 6 categories: computational environment, analytical software, model description, model implementation, data, and experimental protocol. The framework can be used by scientific communities to develop actionable tools for sharing computational models in a reproducible way.

An Application of the DHI Methodology for a Comparison of SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic Hazards in Customer Delivery Services of Smart Cities

Current awareness of epidemic threats and critical experiences of the COVID-19 pandemic require extension of the management model in the smart city, especially in the field of mobility and transport services, with monitoring of epidemic hazards. This paper addresses the issue of epidemic hazards, a new challenge in smart cities, and customer delivery services. The novel DHI methodology for epidemic hazards assessment is presented and applied to compare customer delivery services in aspects of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic hazards. The case studies presented a detailed analysis of epidemic hazards on the basis of process algorithms and dedicated quantitative scales to assess factors influencing the mechanisms of virus transmission. The developed DHI methodology and the results obtained for transport services constitute important cognitive knowledge for the administrative personnel in smart city.

A reliable emergency logistics network for COVID-19 considering the uncertain time-varying demands

The evolving COVID-19 epidemic pose significant threats and challenges to emergency response operations. This paper focuses on designing an emergency logistic network, including the deployment of emergency facilities and the allocation of supplies to satisfy the time-varying demands. A Demand prediction-Network optimization-Decision adjustment framework is proposed for the emergency logistic network design. We first present an improved short-term epidemic model to predict the evolutionary trajectory of the epidemic. Then, considering the uncertainty of the estimated demands, we construct a capacitated multi-period, multi-echelon facility deployment and resource allocation robust optimization model to improve the reliability of the decisions. To address the conservativeness of robust solutions during the evolution of the epidemic, an uncertainty budget adjustment strategy is proposed and integrated into the rolling horizon optimization approach. The results of the case study show that (i) the short-term prediction method has higher accuracy and the accuracy increases with the amount of observed data; (ii) considering the demand uncertainty, the proposed robust optimization model combined with uncertainty budget adjustment strategy can improve the performance of the emergency logistic network; (iii) the proposed solution method is more efficient than its benchmark, especially for large-scale cases. Moreover, some managerial insights related to the emergency logistics network design problem are presented.

Recent outbreak of zika virus in India amid ongoing COVID-19 and monkeypox outbreak: A call for action.

Recent outbreak of zika virus in India amid ongoing COVID-19 and monkeypox outbreak: A call for action.

Nematode Toxocara canis as a Probable Epidemic, Sanitary and Hygienic Threat to Public Health in the Southern Region of the Russian Federation

Introduction: According to the World Health Organization, Toxocara canis, a nematode in the order Ascarididia, is an epidemic and epizootic risk factor for humans and animals around the world and in the Russian Federation. Human toxocariasis is one of the commonest parasitic zoonoses with up to 900 million incident cases registered annually in different age and social groups of the population and a global public health problem of our time. Objective: To study the nematode Toxocara canis (Werner, 1782) as a health risk factor for the population of southern regions the Russian Federation. Materials and methods: We estimated the incidence of larval toxocariasis in the population of 10 districts and two cities of Karachay-Cherkessia based on the results of enzyme immunoassay of blood samples of 6,000 people in 2019–2022. The Tiascar diagnostic test kit (2017) was applied showing toxocariasis for the antibody titer ≥ 1:800 and infestation with Toxocara larvae for those of 1:200 and 1:400. The stool ova and parasite test was used to study 600 dog stool samples from the study areas. In addition, 1,200 soil samples were tested for the presence of Toxocara canis eggs. Results: We established that the incidence rate of larval toxocariasis in the population of 10 districts and two cities of Karachay-Cherkessia varied from 2.00 to 5.40 %. Toxocara canis larvae were not found in human feces, since humans are a biological dead end for this species of worms. Toxocara canis infestation rates in feces of dogs ranged from 2.7 ± 0.4 to 6.9 ± 0.8 eggs/g, potentially accounting for a high level of soil contamination with eggs. The current epidemic situation of human toxocariasis in the Karachay-Cherkess Republic is relatively favorable owing to planned preventive measures. Yet, this constituent entity is at risk of the disease in the future since the number of children, adults and migrants with larval toxocariasis shows a dynamic growth throughout the year. Conclusion: Incidence rates of larval toxocariasis in the child population and migrants demonstrate a 2.74–2.78-fold increase during the year. Toxocara canis eggs contaminate 46 to 94 % of soils in different areas of the republic posing high risks of larval toxocariasis for the local population. In terms of canine toxocariasis, the Karachay-Cherkess Republic can be attributed to disadvantaged territories of the North Caucasian Federal District.

Formation of praxeological competence of future masters of dentistry in the extreme conditions of martial law and epidemic threats: problems and ways to solve them

The study examines the problems and ways to solve them in the professional training of future masters of dentistry in extreme conditions, in particular, the formation of praxeological competence. Based on its structure, the authors prove the effectiveness of the formation of the dominant majority of the components of praxeological competence in the format of distance learning technology, which is used in conditions of geopolitical crises and extreme situations, but the manual and technological-simulation components require mandatory practice in the real conditions of a medical institution. To solve this problem in today’s extreme conditions, it is important to use the potential of academic mobility of students, both domestic and international. On the basis of a survey of foreign students, it was determined that students consider the use of distance learning technology appropriate on a short-term basis, do not demonstrate activity in self work on the search and analysis of information materials from scientific sources. They prefer video materials and discussions with the teacher.

Label-free detection and discrimination of respiratory pathogens based on electrochemical synthesis of biomaterials-mediated plasmonic composites and machine learning analysis

Seasonal outbreaks of respiratory viral infections remain a global concern, with increasing morbidity and mortality rates recorded annually. Timely and false responses contribute to the widespread of respiratory pathogenic diseases owing to similar symptoms at an early stage and subclinical infection. The prevention of emerging novel viruses and variants is also a big challenge. Reliable point-of-care diagnostic assays for early infection diagnosis play a critical role in the response to threats of epidemics or pandemics. We developed a facile method for specifically identifying different viruses based on surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) with pathogen-mediated composite materials on Au nanodimple electrodes and machine learning (ML) analyses. Virus particles were trapped in three-dimensional plasmonic concave spaces of the electrode via electrokinetic preconcentration, and Au films were simultaneously electrodeposited, leading to the acquisition of intense and in-situ SERS signals from the Au–virus composites for ultrasensitive SERS detection. The method was useful for rapid detection analysis (<15 min), and the ML analysis for specific identification of eight virus species, including human influenza A viruses (i.e., H1N1 and H3N2 strains), human rhinovirus, and human coronavirus, was conducted. The highly accurate classification was achieved using the principal component analysis-support vector machine (98.9%) and convolutional neural network (93.5%) models. This ML-associated SERS technique demonstrated high feasibility for direct multiplex detection of different virus species for on-site applications.

Comparative analysis of the legal regulation of counteracting the development of epidemics (pandemics) in the USSR and modern Russia: the experience of forming a legal model of socially useful behavior of the individual

This work is a comparative analysis of the experience of the legal regulation of public relations in counteracting the development of epidemics (pandemics) in the USSR and the Russian Federation. It is considered in the context of the legal formulation of a model of socially useful behavior of an individual. The model of socially useful behavior of an individual under conditions of the threat of epidemics in the USSR was normatively formed by the 70s80s and included the traditional law-abiding and active components. The first was based on the populations knowledge of the normatively fixed rules of action in the event of foci of the spread of specific diseases. The second was associated with the involvement of the public in the direct implementation of anti-epidemic measures.&#x0D; It is revealed that the current Russian legislation does not create sufficient legal prerequisites for forming of a legal model of socially useful behavior of an individual. The circumstances that led to such a situation are indicated. It was concluded that it is necessary to accumulate its inherent restrictions and prohibitions in the uniform federal Rules of conduct for citizens and activities of organizations under the threat of epidemics of dangerous diseases with the provision of the states of the Russian Federation with the right to authorize their application to create legal prerequisites for the formation of a traditional law-abiding model of socially useful behavior of an individual.&#x0D; Forming a legal model of socially active behavior of an individual requires the definition of legal forms and the permissible degree of public participation in preventive work by analogy with the extensive Soviet experience. In contrast, the incentives for useful behavior should be a ramified system of legal guarantees in the fields of labor, social security, education, and related areas, and their interrelationships.

Antiviral Pills against SARS-CoV-2 Virus to Combat Future Epidemic Threats in Pakistan

Antiviral pills are oral medications that treat infections through the inhibition of the viral growth and replication cycle. Paxlovid by Pfizer and Molnupiravir by Merck are the two pills effective for high-risk SARS-CoV-2 patients. Paxlovid works by inhibiting the replication cycle of SARS-CoV-2 using cysteine residues in-vitro. These cysteine residues inhibit the main protease of the virus by functioning as reversible covalent inhibitors. Molnupiravir works by introducing a high rate of mutations in the viral RNA causing the virus to become biologically unstable and non-functional. Both antiviral drugs can bridge the gap in the preparedness for viral outbreaks in low-income countries like Pakistan by mitigating the chances of fatality and inpatient treatment in high-risk, unvaccinated individuals. Pakistan has been plagued by various epidemics over the years however SARS-CoV-2 outbreak caused many deaths along with an economic crisis. The country lacks the resources to endure high inpatient treatment rates in case of SARS-CoV-2 infections, which is why the need for antiviral pills like Paxlovid and Molnupiravir is empirical to overcome epidemics and viral outbreaks. This work outlines the antiviral pills and their efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 with a focus on how these drugs can overcome significant gaps in epidemic preparedness and response in Pakistan. We aim to highlight how antiviral pills against SARS-CoV-2 can ensure resilience to future epidemic threats in Pakistan.

A statistical algorithm for outbreak detection in multisite settings: an application to sick leave monitoring.

Public health authorities monitor cases of health-related problems over time using surveillance algorithms that detect unusually high increases in the number of cases, namely aberrations. Statistical aberrations signal outbreaks when further investigation reveals epidemiological significance. The increasing availability and diversity of epidemiological data and the most recent epidemic threats call for more accurate surveillance algorithms that not just detect aberration times but also detect locations. Sick leave data, for instance, can be monitored across companies to identify companies-related aberrations. In this context, we develop an extension to multisite surveillance of a routinely used aberration detection algorithm, the quasi-Poisson regression Farrington Flexible algorithm. The new algorithm consists of a negative-binomial mixed effects regression model with a random effects term for sites and a new reweighting procedure reducing the effect of past aberrations. A wide range of simulations shows that, compared with Farrington Flexible, the new algorithm produces better false positive rates and similar probabilities of detecting genuine outbreaks, for case counts that exceed historical baselines by 3SD. As expected, higher surges lead to lower false positive rates and higher probabilities of detecting true outbreaks. The new algorithm provides better detection of true outbreaks, reaching 100%, when cases exceed eight baseline standard deviations. We apply our algorithm to sick leave rates in the context of COVID-19 and find that it detects the pandemic effect. The new algorithm is easily implementable over a range of contrasting data scenarios, providing good overall performance and new perspectives for multisite surveillance. All the analyses are performed in the R statistical software using the package glmmTMB. The code for performing the analyses and for generating the simulations can be found online at the following link: https://github.com/TomDuchemin/mixed_surveillance. a.noufaily@warwick.ac.uk.

Monkeypox 2022

Introduction: Monkeypox is a rare zoonotic disease that is caused by a virus belonging to the Orthopoxvirus genus and is closely related to smallpox and cowpox viruses. The emerging epidemic amid the current COVID-19 pandemic is a matter of concern and warrants urgent public health attention with key issues discussed in the article. Aim: The aim of this study was to explore emerging zoonotic, epidemic threats, future implications, and the way ahead in respect of monkeypox. Methodology: Secondary data from official government sites, press information, latest articles, newspapers, and the WHO website were extracted and discussed in the article. The current epidemiology of monkeypox with the difference from the COVID-19 pandemic is highlighted in the study. The most probable factors for the emergence and recent outbreak are also discussed. The period of the study was from May 20, 2022, to May 27, 2022, and was conducted in the medical college of Western Maharashtra. Results and Discussion: Total number of 25 articles/government/international websites were assessed. While comparing the number of cases among different countries across the globe, the present outbreak has involved different countries with no geographical continuity, with a maximum number of cases from Portugal, Spain, and the United States of America. A comparison of epidemiological determinants of COVID-19 and monkeypox was done which reveals the lesser pandemic potential of monkeypox as compared to COVID-19. Conclusion: The present monkeypox outbreak scenario is different from the previous outbreaks, but with lesser pandemic potential as compared to COVID-19. However, with the increase in the incidence of monkeypox cases in different countries, the fear of cross-border transmission is real. Robust public health surveillance and control measures are vital to address this threat.

ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ ВОЗДЕЙСТВИЯ ПАНДЕМИИ НА ХОЗЯЙСТВЕННЫЕ СИСТЕМЫ СКВОЗЬ ПРИЗМУ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ

The study reveals the features of the pandemic’s impact on various countries’ economic systems. The pandemic’s limitations on the state’s development are systematized. Methods for adapting the state’s economic system to epidemic threats are proposed. A comparative analysis of social and economic indicators showing the development of such countries as Russia, the United States of America, China, Germany, India, and Brazil in 2019‒2021 is conducted in order to detect the issues caused by the coronavirus pandemic. It is concluded that the death rate is lower in developed countries with advanced healthcare systems. At the high epidemic threat stage, there was a deterioration in the nominal gross domestic product growth rate, with China and Germany demonstrating the most adequate performance. The decrease in industrial production during the pandemic demonstrates a previous trend in many countries, which recovers after the pandemic. The negative impact on gross fixed capital formation turned out to be minimal in most countries’ economies. The study determined that the pandemic caused an increase in global unemployment in 2020 and 2021. China demonstrated the best inflation management performance, while other countries continue to face inflation as a threat. Depending on the economic development issues, a set of measures is proposed to adapt economic systems to the changing environment.

Interconnection of economic security of the enterprise and the state: analysis of uncontrollable factors

Introduction. The economic security of the enterprise and the state are interdependent, as the success of one directly affects the success of the other. If enterprises function well and prosper, they contribute to the growth of the country's economy, create jobs and improve living standards. On the other hand, a stable and successful state provides a favourable business environment, protects the rights of businesses and ensures proper regulation of the economy. Ensuring economic security is an important goal at all levels: from the international level to the individual household. The article discusses the main aspects of the impact of the economic security of the state on the security of the enterprise, such as financial stability, competitiveness, market position, etc. The article pays special attention to the analysis of uncontrollable factors that may affect the economic security of an enterprise and, in general, the economic stability of the state. Goal. The purpose is to determine the relationship between the economic security of an enterprise and the State in order to identify factors beyond the control of the enterprise management. Research methods. The study used analysis, deduction, induction, and generalisation. The results. The analysis of the mutual influence of the economic security of the State and enterprise has revealed that the former generates factors beyond the control of the enterprise management. It is shown that the list of basic factors includes: geopolitical instability, international sanctions, conflicts and wars, unsatisfactory level of innovation, corruption and insufficient legal system, energy dependence, natural disasters, demographic crisis, climate change, cyber security threat, social tensions and instability, foreign economic interventions, systemic risks in the banking sector, lack of resources and raw materials, low level of infrastructure development, inadequate foreign policy, threat of pandemics and epidemics, lack of education and skilled labour. The article shows that it is precisely because of the above factors that efforts to ensure the economic security of an enterprise, in some cases, do not equal the level of economic security obtained as a result of their results. The general measures to reduce the impact of uncontrollable factors on the economic security of enterprises are proposed.

Pandemics and Epidemics Throughout History

Despite the advancements in medicine and community health, epidemics and pandemics continue to pose a significant challenge to modern society. Population growth, urbanization, climate change, and globalization contribute to their spread, while transportation facilitates rapid transmission. Throughout history, epidemics and pandemics have significantly affected human civilizations, wiping out entire populations, causing economic collapse and political unrest, and changing the course of history. This article provides a summary of some of the most significant epidemics and pandemics throughout history, including the oldest known pandemic in China, the Plague of Athens, the Antonine Plague, the Black Plague, and the Spanish Flu, as well as the history of epidemics in the Arabian Gulf region. While the impact of these epidemics and pandemics has been devastating, they have also led to advancements in medicine and public health, helping us better prepare for future outbreaks. Continuous research and vigilance are essential in addressing the threat of epidemics and pandemics in our modern age.

Data concerning Covid-19 cases in Poland at the end of the pandemic

Purpose: The main purpose of this article is to analyze and understand trends in COVID-19 cases in Poland during what is considered the end of the pandemic. Design/methodology/approach: The article uses data visualization methods to assess trends and identify key factors influencing the dynamics of the pandemic. The analysis included data on the pandemic in the period from 1 January, 2023 to 30 June, 2023. On 1 July, 2023, the state of epidemic threat in Poland was canceled. Findings: Analysis of epidemiological data showed that the number of new COVID-19 cases in Poland showed a gradual decline during the period considered to be the end of the pandemic. This reduction in case numbers has been consistent across regions of the country, although some areas have seen periodic increases. The data clearly demonstrate the significant impact of vaccinations in reducing the number of new infections and severe disease outcomes. Regions with higher vaccination rates saw lower COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths. Research limitations/implications: The surveys discussed in this article may contribute to further empirical studies, including but not limited to initiating works to improve the pandemic analysis. Practical implications: The study provides important information that can be used by public health decision-makers to shape effective pandemic response strategies. The results highlight the importance of maintaining and adapting intervention measures, such as vaccination, to control the spread of the virus and reduce the number of severe cases. Originality/value: This study stands out from other works on the COVID-19 pandemic by its unique focus on the final stage of the pandemic in Poland. While most studies focus on the early stages of the pandemic or its global impact, our study offers detailed insight into local aspects of pandemic management and its evolution in a specific country. We present a comprehensive analysis that combines epidemiological data, the impact of health policy, social behavior and vaccination effectiveness. Keywords: pandemic, COVID-19, data analysis, Poland. Category of the paper: General review, Research paper.

Ferret Models for Henipavirus Infection.

Henipaviruses are emerging zoonotic viruses that can cause outbreaks of severe respiratory and neurological disease in humans and animals such as horses. The mechanism by which these viruses can cause disease remain largely unknown and to date there are no therapeutics or vaccines approved for use in humans. Nipah virus is listed on the World Health Organization R & D Blueprint list of epidemic threats. In order to advance the availability of effective therapeutics and vaccines and medicines that can be used to save lives and avert large scale crises, animal models are required which recapitulate the disease progression in humans. Ferrets are highly susceptible to infection with henipaviruses and develop both severe respiratory and neurological disease. Therefore, the ferret model is highly suitable for studies into both the pathogenesis of henipaviruses, as well as pre-clinical evaluation of intervention strategies.

Evaluation of inactivated vaccine's Antibody response to different H9N2 Vaccination programs with Hemagglutination Inhibition (HI) assay

Influenza is a significant poultry disease that can also affect humans, making it a zoonosis. The World Health Organization (WHO) and Contagious Diseases Organization (CDO) have increasingly focused on this disease in recent years. The isolation of influenza, particularly H5N1 and H9N2 subtypes, has dramatically increased, posing a global epidemic threat and causing deaths in various communities, as well as substantial losses in poultry. In response, using inactivated avian influenza vaccines has become common in controlling the disease. A comprehensive study was conducted in broiler farms in Iran to address the importance of influenza control through vaccination. The study involved 50,000 broiler chicks divided into seven groups with different vaccination programs. The groups were vaccinated at different ages and received varying vaccine doses. Serum samples were collected weekly and analyzed for antibody titers using hemagglutination inhibition (HI). The results showed that the groups vaccinated after seven days of age had a more consistent immune response and higher antibody titers than those vaccinated at a younger age or with only one dose. Early vaccination before seven days of age did not effectively stimulate the desired antibody response or achieve expected titers for the H9N2 influenza virus. Therefore, vaccinating older chicks improved immunity and flock protection more effectively. This study highlights the importance of vaccination strategies in controlling influenza in broiler farms. It provides valuable insights into the optimal timing and dosage of vaccines to enhance the immune response and protect against the H9N2 subtype. Implementing appropriate vaccination programs can contribute to mitigating the impact of influenza on poultry and reducing the risk of transmission to humans, ultimately safeguarding both animal and public health.

The Need for Attention and Reoptimization of Preventive Medicine to Deal With the Coronavirus Epidemic Threats.

The Need for Attention and Reoptimization of Preventive Medicine to Deal With the Coronavirus Epidemic Threats.

Szczególne rozwiązania związane z epidemią COVID-19 dotyczące czasu pracy pracowników podmiotów leczniczych

Special solutions related to the COVID-19 epidemic regarding the working time of employees of medical entities The COVID-19 epidemic and the measures taken to combat it have revealed many imperfections in the legal system. In order to enable certain groups of key employers to operate continuously in the event of an epidemic threat and epidemic, the legislator granted them special powers in the field of working time. Medical entities play a key role in this period. The aim of the article is to analyze the rights of these employers under the provisions of the special COVID act and their relationship to special provisions regulating the working time of employees of these entities.