Thermally Activated Building Systems (TABS) has great energy flexibility potential for the effective demand response, but the inherent large thermal inertia creates challenges for the control. Model Predictive Control (MPC) can improve the control efficiency while achieving certain objectives. However, the modeling mechanism of the TABS thermal behavior can lead to the difference in the controller performances. In this study, the white-box model, grey-box model, and black-box model based MPCs (referred to as W-MPC, G-MPC, and B-MPC) are developed and analyzed in depth for a case TABS with high heat flexibility potential. The performances of MPC strategies are investigated together with the baseline Rule Based Control (RBC) strategy under normal conditions as well as a variety of uncertainty events. In general, MPC strategies show better performance compared to the RBC. The prediction-based control can effectively maintain the indoor temperature within the constraints considering the uncertain disturbances and the gradual outdoor climate change. Moreover, MPC strategies help to increase the cost savings due to the effective load shifting by 30%–50%, and enhance the flexible energy utilization by 14%–29%. In terms of the comparison among the different MPC strategies, W-MPC shows better performance in the room temperature control, which reduces the violation of the indoor temperature constraint by 30% and 15% compared to G-MPC and B-MPC, respectively. G-MPC shows slight superiority concerning the economy and flexible energy usage. The normalized cost saving of G-MPC is approximately 3% and 8% lower compared to the W-MPC and B-MPC, respectively, while the utilization efficiencies of the flexible energy are approximately 6% and 12% higher.
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