Theory Of Voting Research Articles

Retrospective voting in Georgia: does the government's past performance matter?

ABSTRACTVoters are often assumed to be of tertiary importance in less than democratic contexts – the regime can manipulate, buy, or outright steal their votes goes the predominant logic. This article however shows that voters not only matter but engaged in retrospective voting in Georgia, a country with imperfect political competition, between 2008 and 2015. Analysis of two waves of nationally representative survey data from 2012 to 2015 supports the retrospective voting theory, with a positive relationship between voter support for the incumbent party and positive assessments of government policies related to socio-economic, democratization, and security issues. Citizens who assess government policies negatively are more prone to voting for opposition candidates or not voting at all compared to those who are more satisfied with the government's performance in Georgia. Notably, these findings are very similar for two governments led by two very different parties in Georgia: the United National Movement (2008–2012) and Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia (since 2012). Hence, I conclude that disregarding voters’ preferences has negative consequences for the legitimation and survival of the incumbent.

It’s My Party and I’ll Vote How I Want to: Experimental Evidence of Directional Voting in Two-Candidate Elections

The competing theories of proximity and directional voting have long been used to model voting behavior. Empirically evaluating these theories, however, requires knowledge of voters’ utilities, which are inherently unobserved. Empiricists have generally dealt with this by using self-reports of utility. Yet, self-reports are likely biased, leaving experimental predictions at odds with real-world election outcomes. We improve upon this method by constructing a discrete choice model which is able to measure the likelihood of any one voter exhibiting proximity voting behavior as opposed to directional voting behavior, without needing to know voters’ utilities. We subsequently conduct a voting experiment with over 1,800 participants to estimate the parameters of the model. Our results suggest that, among voters whose expected behavior differs across the two theories, there is an approximately even split between voting behaviors, and the probability of exhibiting proximity voting behavior decreases by roughly 10 percentage points for each step away from the midpoint of a (−10 to +10) political spectrum. Our results are robust across two measures of preferences and four candidate pairings. The outcomes of our experiment are also consistent with the results of the 2012 Presidential Election, which took place the day after our experiment closed.

Retrospective voting in the Italian 2013 election: a sub-national perspective

The Italian 2013 election ended the period of bipolarism that characterized the so-called ‘Second Republic’, and paved the way for new parties such as the Five Star Movement. We investigate that election, which took place after the technocratic government led by Mario Monti, through the analytical lenses of the retrospective theory of economic voting applied at the provincial level. Local unemployment rates shape the electoral performances of those parties that were more supportive and sympathetic to the caretaker executive, thus confirming a distinction between incumbent and non-incumbent even in that critical and politically undecided election. We further contribute to the literature on retrospective voting by relaxing the locally untenable assumption of independence among the units. Making use of spatial regression models, we demonstrate the relevance of both the internal and contiguous economies, and their relative impact due to the different size of the provinces.

The economic vote at the party level: Electoral behaviour during the Great Recession

The Great Recession is a non-trivial test bed for the theory of economic voting, especially if its predictions are decomposed at the party level, as done in this article by analysing the electoral performances of parties competing in 89 national elections held in the 28 member states of the EU between 2003 and 2015. We acknowledge counterintuitively that prime ministers’ parties are able to exploit the relatively good state of the economy, while sharing the blame with their allies in times of crisis, counting on the lack of clarity in the attribution of responsibilities and deploying their heresthetic capacities. We further recognize that new parties, more than opposition ones, proportionally profited from the recession. Tough times magnify the alternation between left- and right-wing victories, without necessarily favouring the most radical parties, whereas the EU’s supposed responsibility in prolonging the crisis fuelled the success of Eurosceptic parties.

A importância do crescimento econômico local na escolha do chefe do Executivo no Brasil

Resumo A investigação dos fatores que influenciam a escolha do chefe do Executivo no Brasil é uma questão de vital importância. Neste artigo, apresentam-se evidências de que o crescimento econômico local no último ano de governo possui impacto positivo na porcentagem de votos obtidos pelo incumbente em uma amostra da população dos municípios brasileiros, com dados das eleições presidenciais e municipais de 2000 a 2010. Usamos a expansão real do PIB municipal como medida do crescimento econômico local e testamos a hipótese de que os eleitores em um município premiam os incumbentes, ou seus respectivos candidatos, que tiveram bom desempenho econômico no último ano de mandato. A hipótese se baseia na teoria econômica do voto que sugere que os incumbentes têm mais chances de vencer uma reeleição, ou eleger seu sucessor, quando a economia está em um bom momento. Na análise utilizamos as abordagens para dados em painel, além de análise multinível, de modo a melhor explorar a heterogeneidade existente no fenômeno do voto econômico e com isso inferir a existência de efeitos do crescimento econômico na proporção de votos obtidos pelo incumbente e como esses efeitos podem variar em relação a partidos, unidades da federação, circunscrição eleitoral e outras variáveis.

Policy Salience and Election Outcomes in Contemporary American Presidential Elections (1972‐2000)

This article examines the influence of policy salience on election outcomes using aggregate U.S. presidential election data and the American National Election Studies poll data from 1972 to 2000. It finds that salience influences election outcomes consistent with the Schattschneider‐Lowi thesis that policy determines politics. While salience levels are typically low, relatively higher salience yields more popular votes for Republicans than Democrats. Consequently, Republicans typically win by higher margins and lose by smaller margins compared to Democrats. Moreover, an incumbent is likely to be reelected if his party's salience levels remain higher than the challenger's. Finally, the policy salience thesis provides useful clues in the quest for a unified voting theory. It suggests that voters rely on rationality and self‐interest to obtain answers to two pertinent questions, whose answers determine how they vote: (1) what is the most important problem; and (2) who can address it? These questions also undergird other voting theories.Related Articles Bernick, M. Ethan, and Nathan Myers. 2012. “.” Politics & Policy 40 (): 131‐159. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2011.00340.x/abstract Heidbreder, Bianne. 2012. “.” Politics & Policy 40 (): 296‐319. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2012.00345.x/abstract Khodr, Hiba, and Isabella Ruble. 2013. “.” Politics & Policy 41 (): 656‐689. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/polp.12033/pdf

Do Birds of a Feather Vote Together, or Is It Peer Influence?

Why and when do legislators vote together on policy? Do legislators decide to vote similarly mainly because of social influence or similarity? I contribute to the literature by offering a social network theory of voting. It is argued that close social ties help to establish reputations and to aid the flow of information among peer legislators, leading to increased influence and increased rates of co-voting among them. I examine the relative effects of information exchange networks and social exchange networks on rates of co-voting, controlling for similarities among legislators. The data include legislative votes from 2010 to 2014 in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies. The results suggest that social influence stemming from social relationships exert substantial effects on rates of congressional co-voting.

A Matter of Representation: Spatial Voting and Inconsistent Policy Preferences

The application of spatial voting theories to popular elections presupposes an electorate that chooses political representatives on the basis of their well-structured policy preferences. Behavioral researchers have long contended that parts of the electorate instead hold unstructured and inconsistent policy beliefs. This article proposes an extension to spatial voting theories to analyze the effect of varying consistency in policy preferences on electoral behavior. The model results in the expectation that voters with less consistent policy preferences will put less weight on policy distance when learning about candidates who should represent their political positions. The study tests this expectation for the 2008 US presidential election, and finds that for respondents with less consistent self-placements on the liberal–conservative scale, policy distance less strongly affects their voting decision. The results have implications for the quality of political representation, as certain parts of the electorate are expected to be less closely represented.

A Condorcet Voting Theory Based AHP Approach for MCDM Problems

<p>Analytical Hierarchical Process has been used as a useful methodology for multi-criteria decision making environments with substantial applications in recent years. But the weakness of the traditional AHP method lies in the use of subjective judgement based assessment and standardized scale for pairwise comparison matrix creation. The paper proposes a Condorcet Voting Theory based AHP method to solve multi criteria decision making problems where Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is combined with Condorcet theory based preferential voting technique followed by a quantitative ratio method for framing the comparison matrix instead of the standard importance scale in traditional AHP approach. The consistency ratio (CR) is calculated for both the approaches to determine and compare the consistency of both the methods. The results reveal Condorcet – AHP method to be superior generating lower consistency ratio and more accurate ranking of the criterion for solving MCDM problems.</p>

Cracking the whip: spatial voting with party discipline and voter polarization

The spatial voting theory literature has generally focused on either parties or candidates as the unit of analysis and ignored strategic interactions between them. I study a game theoretic spatial model of elections with many heterogeneous constituencies in which both party and candidate behavior are modeled. Parties choose a platform and a ‘whip rate,’ representing the proportion of final policy that will be made by the party, as opposed to by the successful candidates. Candidates are office-motivated and can choose both a platform and a level of advertising in order to defeat their opponent. It is shown that the introduction of whipping as a choice variable can cause party platforms to diverge and that parties will whip on some but not all issues, reflecting the empirical reality of parties influencing rather than determining policy outcomes exclusively. Further, parties respond to sharper voter polarization by reducing the power of the whip as well as distinguishing their platforms from one another, while more voter uncertainty has the opposite effect. Other real-world phenomena, including ‘safe seats’ and legislators voting with their party even when unwhipped, are also shown to be predicted by the model.

Taking back control? Investigating the role of immigration in the 2016 vote for Brexit

The 2016 referendum marked a watershed moment in the history of the United Kingdom. The public vote to leave the European Union (EU)—for a ‘Brexit’—brought an end to the country’s membership of the EU and set it on a fundamentally different course. Recent academic research on the vote for Brexit points to the importance of immigration as a key driver, although how immigration influenced the vote remains unclear. In this article, we draw on aggregate-level data and individual-level survey data from the British Election Study (BES) to explore how immigration shaped public support for Brexit. Our findings suggest that, specifically, increases in the rate of immigration at the local level and sentiments regarding control over immigration were key predictors of the vote for Brexit, even after accounting for factors stressed by established theories of Eurosceptic voting. Our findings suggest that a large reservoir of support for leaving the EU, and perhaps anti-immigration populism more widely, will remain in Britain, so long as immigration remains a salient issue.

Time of Vote Choice in India

This piece analyzes the subject Time of Vote Choice in India, a hitherto under-researched aspect of voting behaviour in the country. Using longitudinal data from National Election Studies conducted by Lokniti between 1996 and 2014, it shows that voting intentions of India’s voters are increasingly crystallizing before the start of the campaign period of an election. On the other hand, the proportion of voters postponing their vote choice to after the start of a campaign has declined over the last two decades. This declining trend is unique to India as most Western democracies have registered an overtime increase in campaign-period decision-making. While Indian voters who are less political, less partisan and less exposed to media are more likely to be late deciders than early ones, nevertheless, we also find that late deciders—both campaign-period and last-minute—have gradually become more politically sophisticated and attentive over the years. In this respect, our findings validate both the traditional floating voter theory of the Columbia School and some of the newer studies that have countered it.

Pocketbook Voting, Social Preferences, and Expressive Motives in Referenda

We develop and test a theory of voting and turnout decisions that integrates self-interest, social preferences, and expressive motives. Our model implies that if pocketbook benefits are relevant, voters either perceive their impact on the outcome to be non-negligible, or expressive motivations do not play a role in the decision on how to vote. Conversely, if own pocketbook benefits do not explain voting, then voting is expressive. If the perceived probability of being pivotal is non-negligible, social preferences and expressive concerns are observationally equivalent. Our empirical analysis studies collective choices which are analogous to decisions on local public goods. We consider referenda among university students on whether to collectively purchase deeply discounted flat rate tickets for public transportation and cultural amenities. Individual us- age data allow quantifying the monetary benefits associated with each ticket. As voters had precise information on the individual costs and benefits, our setting comprises a real-world laboratory of direct democracy. We find that monetary benefits strongly influence participation and voting. However, social or expressive motives, such as stated altruism, environmental concerns, and paternalism, are decisive for a significant minority. Our results rule out purely expressive voting and imply that a substantial share of the electorate perceived their impact on the outcome to be non-negligible.

It’s Not Just What You Have, but Who You Know: Networks, Social Proximity to Elites, and Voting in State and Local Elections

Individual-level studies of electoral turnout and vote choice have focused largely on personal attributes as explanatory variables. We argue that scholars should also consider the social network in which individuals are embedded, which may influence voting through variation in individuals’ social proximity to elites. Our analysis rests on newly discovered historical records revealing the individual votes of all electors in the 1859 statewide elections in Alexandria, Virginia and the 1874 municipal elections in Newport, Kentucky, paired with archival work identifying the social relations of the cities’ populations. We also replicate our core findings using survey data from a modern municipal election. We show that individuals more socially proximate to elites turn out at a higher rate and individuals more socially proximate to a given political party’s elites vote disproportionately for that party. These results suggest an overlooked social component of voting and provide a rare nineteenth-century test of modern voting theories.

Estimating the Willingness to Pay for the Civic Value When Absentee Voting Is Not Allowed

The existing studies based on the well known rational voter theory analyze voter turnout as the aggregate of individuals' binary choice of to vote or not to vote. However, when people need to travel to vote, the cost associated with different travel modes directly affects their voting decisions. We thus generalize the rational voter theory by taking an individual's specific choice of travel mode into account. Considering that individuals may have different responses to traveling costs, we further allow the disutility from voting to be heterogeneous across individuals. Although our proposed discrete choice model is much more flexible than previous ones in these two respects, we show that it can be estimated via the method of Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995) with either individual-level or aggregate level data. We then use traveling and census data to analyze voters' behavior in Taiwan where absentee voting is not allowed, such that people may need to travel quite a long distance to vote. As compared to the observed 30.14% turnout rates of non-registered voters in Taiwan's 2014 local elections, the counterfactual simulations herein suggest that the turnout rates would be 56.49% if convenient voting were to be allowed, such as e-voting.

Political Party Impacts on Direct Democracy: the 2015 Greek Austerity Referendum

On July 5, 2015, Greek voters were asked whether to approve or reject the terms of an austerity program offered by the European Union (EU) to resolve an ongoing financial crisis. With a turnout rate of 62.5% overall, 61.3% of Greeks voted “no.” While a majority of voters in every district opposed the bailout’s terms, the margin against the proposed austerity measures ranged from 51.2% in Lakonias to 73.8% in Chanion. This paper presents empirical evidence on the determinants of the “no” vote across Greece’s 56 electoral districts. Our analysis is grounded in public choice theories of why large numbers of people turn out to vote in mass elections. In addition to controlling for standard “instrumental” vote motives, we ask whether political party labels, which serve as summary measures of partisan positioning, and party platforms, which express partisan preferences on ballot questions, are salient in determining electoral outcomes. Holding constant the unemployment rate and average voter age (at the regional level) and the fraction of young people casting ballots for the first time on July 5, 2015 (at the district level), we find that the percentage of ‘no’ votes was reduced significantly by voter support for Greece’s leading pro-austerity party (New Democracy) in the previous nationwide election held in January 2015. In contrast, voter support in January for the anti-austerity party (Syriza), led by sitting Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, had no measurable impact on July’s referendum results. This finding offers support for both instrumental and expressive theories of voting and bolsters the claim that political parties can shape electoral outcomes on questions decided by an institution of direct democracy.

Modeling proximity and directional decisional logic: What can we learn from applying statistical learning techniques to VAA-generated data?

ABSTRACTVoting advice applications-(VAA) generated data provide an ideal data source for testing competing theories of voting behavior. To that end, this paper focuses on comparing metrics of voter-party ideological concordance based on rival theories of issue voting (proximity and directional theory). Classification performance of the competing models, in terms of correctly predicting party choice, is evaluated in diverse cross-national settings. Drawing on the EUvox dataset (a VAA for the European Parliament elections in 2014) statistical learning techniques are used to model the decisional logic of voters in high- and low-dimensional policy space. The results show that statistical learning methods can improve classification performance significantly and that how dimensionality is modeled affects the performance of competing issue voting models.

Expressive voting and political ideology in a laboratory democracy

We test the theory of expressive voting in relation to political ideology in a laboratory experiment. After deriving our hypotheses from a decision theoretic model, we examine voting decisions in an experiment in which we use the size of the electorate as the treatment variable. Using a Heckman selection model that includes both the electoral participation decision and voting choice decision, we find mixed results for the expressive voting hypothesis. In line with expressive voting, our findings suggest that non-ideological voters are more likely to abstain from voting than ideological voters – especially when the electorate grows large. Concerning the voting choice decision between an equal but inefficient, and an unequal but efficient income distribution the evidence for expressive voting is mixed. We do find that voters with socialist (left wing) preferences behave expressively, but we do not find this effect for voters with capitalist (right wing) preferences.

Instrumental and Expressive Coalition Voting: The Case of the FDP in the 2009 and 2013 German Federal Elections

Most accounts of coalition voting are based on instrumental reasoning. However, coalition voting might also be the result of expressive motivations. Using the case of the FDP, this article studies the impact of a varying degree of coalition voting in the German federal elections of 2009 and 2013. According to theories of instrumental coalition voting, there should have been more ‘threshold insurance voting’ at the 2013 election, as the FDP was actually in danger of not crossing the threshold. Yet it is found that there was considerably less coalition voting in 2013 than in the 2009 election. The analysis suggests that a more comprehensive account of coalition voting is needed that considers not only instrumental reasoning but also expressive coalition voting. Taking into account expressive motivations for coalition voting helps to explain the tremendous decline of the FDP vote share in the 2013 German federal election.

Turnout, Status, and Identity: Mobilizing Latinos to Vote with Group Appeals

The rise of micro-targeting in American elections raises new questions about the effects of identity-based mobilization strategies. In this article, we bring together theories of expressive voting with literature on racial and ethnic identification to argue that prior studies, which have found either weak or null effects of identity messages targeting minority groups, have missed a crucial moderating variable—identity strength—that varies across both individuals and communities. Identity appeals can have powerful effects on turnout, but only when they target politicized identities to which individuals hold strong prior attachments. Using two innovative GOTV field experiments that rely on publicly available data as a proxy for identity strength, we show that the effects of both ethnic and national identity appeals among Latinos in California and Texas are conditional on the strength of those identities in different communities and among different Latino subgroups.