Thaw Depth Research Articles

Evaluating the Impact of Soil Enthalpy upon the Thawing Process of the Active Layer in Permafrost Regions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Using CLM5.0

The hydrothermal dynamics of the active layer is a key issue in the study of surface processes in permafrost regions. Even though the soil energy budget is controlled by thermal conduction and latent heat transfer, few studies have focused on their effects upon the active layer thickness (ALT). In the present study, the community land model (CLM) version 5.0 is used to simulate the soil temperature and moisture of the active layers at the Tanggula (TGL) and Beiluhe (BLH) stations in permafrost regions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau based on the theory of soil enthalpy in order to estimate the soil energy state and analyze the energy changes in the active layer during freezing and thawing. The results indicate that the soil enthalpy has significant seasonal variation characteristics, which accurately reflected the freezing and thawing processes of the active layer. The change in soil enthalpy is significantly related to the thawing depth of the active layer in TGL and BLH, and its changing process can be expressed as an exponential relationship. Near the surface, the variation of the energy due to temperature gradient and actual evaporation can also be expressed as an exponential relationship. The promoting effect of heat conduction on the ALT is greater than the inhibiting effect of latent heat transfer, with the energy contribution from the phase change accounting for about 20–40% of the energy due to the temperature gradient. The thawing depth increases by 14.16–18.62 cm as the energy due to the temperature gradient increases by 1 MJ/m2 and decreases by 2.75–7.16 cm as the energy due to the phase change increases by 1 MJ/m2. Thus, the present study quantifies the effects of soil energy upon the ALT and facilitates an understanding of the hydrothermal processes in soils in permafrost regions.

Математическое моделирование процесса промерзания грунтов земляного полотна железных дорог в условиях холодного климата

Purpose: Mathematical model for studying the process of soil freezing given moisture migration is developed. Numerical modeling of temperature mode of railway subgrade at non-stationary pro-cess in cold climate conditions is performed. Methods: Numerical implementation of the model is performed by mathematical module processing in COMSOL Multiphysics program, which’s based on partial differential equations (PDE), with finite element method. The model reliability is con-firmed by the comparison with previous experimental data and the results of simulation by other authors. Results: Calculation results on the developed model basis show the best correlation with experimental data in comparison with the results for other models. Calculation example and calcu-lation results for subgrade temperature mode in freezing-thawing fifth cycle are presented. The analysis of soil freezing depth change and soil temperature fluctuation change by depth by fifth year are carried out. Practical significance: The developed mathematical model makes it possible to predict soil freezing depth, taking into account moisture migration, including freezing and thawing depth changes caused by climate warming. The developed model can be used both, to study the mechanism of subgrade temperature mode distribution at freezing and thawing, and to improve subgrade construction for to protect it from soil frost heaving.

Analyzing factors impacting the thaw depth of the natural foundation soils under the railway embankment in the Tynda–Kuryan section of BAM

Relevance. The reliability of roadbed on a thawing foundation is a relevant problem both for a new railway line and existing roadbed on permafrost soils. Among other things, design inaccuracies are the reason for deformations of roadbed on icy soils in the conditions of permafrost propagation. That is due to the use of calculation methods that do not take full account of the special nature of thermal and mechanical interaction between the roadbed and the thawing foundation. Research objective is to identify, based on the analyzed material, the relationship between the thaw depth of the natural foundation soils under the railway embankment and its height. Methods of research. An 8 km long section of a Baikal-Amur Mainline on the Kuryan – P.P. 2342 km (Tynda) stretch, with statistical indicators for 61 transverse profiles was taken as an object of research. To check the presence of a linear relationship between the thaw depth of the natural foundation under the roadbed floor and the embankment height, scattering diagrams were constructed and regression equations were found; the relationship nature and strength are determined using the Pearson correlation coefficient. The correlation coefficient reliability is assessed using the Student’s criterion. To assess the quality of the constructed regression model, the statistical significance of the determination coefficient is checked using the Fisher F-criterion. Research results. The calculations allowed to make a conclusion about the statistical significance of the correlation coefficient for the embankments of the two sample groups. The obtained Pearson correlation coefficients are significant, and between the studied features (i.e. the height of the embankment and the thaw depth of the natural foundation under it (in each group)) there is a close inverse relationship, for drainless surfaces the relationship is stronger. Conclusions. The correlation analysis performed in this article shows that the thaw depth of the natural foundation under the railway embankment and the embankment height have a close statistically significant inverse relationship. The analysis prepared according to experimental data gives only a general assessment of the dependence between natural foundation thawing and the embankment height at a local site.

Riverine CO2 variations in permafrost catchments of the Yangtze River source region: Hot spots and hot moments

Rivers and streams are pivotal modulators in regional and global carbon cycles, but riverine CO2 flux is still uncertain for permafrost watersheds. Here we present the seasonal CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and CO2 emission flux (FCO2) of 8 rivers and streams in the Yangtze River source region (YRSR), which have high permafrost coverage and seasonally thawed active layer. The YRSR rivers and streams are generally supersaturated with CO2, although there are a few sites with CO2 undersaturation during spring. The small headwater streams are CO2 hot spots that show significantly higher pCO2 (52 % higher) and FCO2 (792 % higher) than larger rivers. Both pCO2 and FCO2 show distinct seasonality across the study sites. pCO2 and FCO2 peak in summer and exhibit much lower levels in autumn and spring, indicating that hot moments of riverine CO2 occur in summer. Seasonal pCO2 and FCO2 variations are jointly controlled by hydrology, active layer dynamics and associated processes. The warm summer causes active layer thaw and highly active soil respiration, which release a large quantity of soil carbon and increase the CO2 sources via strengthened hydrologic connectivity. The high rainfall and more thaw-released water in summer bring high discharge, which can increase the water velocity and gas exchange rate and thus CO2 emission flux. Most of the variances of seasonal FCO2 (95 %) can be explained by hydrology and active layer thaw depth. Nevertheless, the hydrological process and seasonally thawed active layer over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) play crucial roles in riverine carbon export due to the summer monsoon-dominated climate in QTP. Our results suggest that full seasonal coverage of CO2 dynamics is essential to quantify the annual CO2 flux accurately. Changing climate and warming permafrost may alter the annual CO2 emission due to deeper flow paths, hydrology changes, and longer emission windows throughout the year.

The hydrothermal changes of permafrost active layer and their impact on summer rainfall-runoff processes in an alpine meadow watershed, northwest China

The freezing-thawing variation of permafrost active layer increases the complexity of rainfall-runoff processes in alpine river basins, Northwest China. And alpine meadow is the prominent ecosystem in these basins. This study selected a small alpine meadow watershed in the upper reaches of the Shule River Basin, China. We investigated alpine rainfall-runoff processes, as well as impacts of summer thaw depth of active layer, soil temperature and moisture variation on streamflow based on in-situ observations from July 2015 to December 2020. Some hydrologic parameters or indices were calculated using statistical methods, and impacts of permafrost change on river runoff were assessed using the variable infiltration capacity model (VIC). In the alpine meadow, surface soil (0–10 cm depth) of the active layer starts to freeze in mid-October each year, and begins to thaw in early April. Also, the deeper soil (70–80 cm depth) of the active layer starts to freeze in late October, and begins to thaw in late June. Moisture content in shallow soils fluctuates regularly, whereas deeper soils are more stable, and their response to rainstorms is negligible. During active layer thawing, the moisture content increases with soil depth. In the alpine meadow, vertical infiltration only occurred in soils up to 40 cm deep, and lateral flow occurred in 0–20 and 60–80 cm deep soils at current rainfall intensity. Summer runoff ratios were 0.06–0.31, and runoff floods show lags of 9.5–23.0 h following the rainfall event in the study area. The freeze–thaw process also significantly impacts runoff regression coefficients, which were 0.0088–0.0654 per hour. Recession coefficient decrease negatively correlates with active layer thawing depth in summer and autumn. Alpine river basin permafrost can effectively increase peak discharge and reduce low flow. These findings are highly significant for rainfall–runoff conversion research in alpine areas of inland rivers.

Increased nutrient availability speeds up permafrost development, while goose grazing slows it down in a Canadian High Arctic wetland

Abstract It is of prime importance to understand feedbacks due to the release of carbon (C) stored in permafrost soils (permafrost‐climate feedback) and direct impacts of climatic variations on permafrost dynamics therefore received considerable attention. However, indirect effects of global change, such as the variation in soil nutrient availability and grazing pressure, can alter soil and surface properties of the Arctic tundra, with the potential to modify soil heat transfers toward the permafrost and impact resilience of Arctic ecosystems. We determined the potential of nutrient availability and grazing to alter soil energy balance using a 16‐year split‐plot experiment crossing fertilization at different doses of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) with protection from goose grazing. Moss biomass and some determinants of the surface energy budget (leaf area index (LAI), dead vascular plant biomass and albedo) were quantified and active layer thaw depth repeatedly measured during three growing seasons. We measured soil physical properties and thermal conductivity and used a physical model to link topsoil organic accumulation processes to heat transfer. Fertilization increased LAI and albedo, whereas grazing decreased dead vascular plant biomass and albedo. Fertilization increased organic accumulation at the top of the soil leading to drier and more porous topsoil, whereas grazing increased water content of topsoil. As a result, topsoil thermal conductivity was higher in grazed plots than in ungrazed ones. Including these properties into a simulation model, we showed that, after 16 years, nutrient addition tended to shallow the active layer whereas grazing deepened mean July active layer by 3.3 cm relative to ungrazed subplots. As a result of OM accumulation at the surface, fertilization increased permafrost vertical aggradation rate by almost an order of magnitude (up to 5 mm year−1 instead of 0.7 mm year−1), whereas grazing slowed down permafrost aggradation by reducing surface uprising and deepening thaw depth. Synthesis. We demonstrated that long‐term grazing and N and P addition, through their impact on vegetation and soil properties have the potential to impact permafrost dynamics to the same extent as contemporary temperature increase in High Arctic polygonal wetlands.

Cooling Subgrade Effectiveness by L-Shaped Two-Phase Closed Thermosyphons with Different Inclination Angles and XPS Insulation Boards in Permafrost Regions

This study focused on the coupling heat transfer mechanism and the cooling efficiency of L-shaped two-phase closed thermosyphons (L-shaped TPCTs) in the wide subgrade of permafrost regions. Considering the fact that time-space dynamics change the effects of the air temperature, wind speed, and geotemperature, a coupled air temperature-L-shaped TPCT-subgrade soil heat transfer model was established using the ANSYS 15.0 software platform, and the rationality of the model was verified through measured data. The heat-transfer characteristics of the L-shaped TPCTs and the long-term thermal stability of the subgrade were studied under different inclination angles of the evaporator (α = 15°, 30°, 50°, 70°, and 90°). Then, the cooling effectiveness of a composite subgrade with TPCTs and an XPS insulation board was numerically calculated. The results show that the heat flux of the L-shaped TPCT was the greatest when α = 50°, and the heat flux reached the maximum value of 165.7 W·m-2 in January. The L-shaped TPCT had a relatively good cooling effect on the subgrade as a whole when α = 50° and 70°, but the thawing depth at the center of the subgrade with L-shaped TPCTs reached 9.0 m below the ground surface in the 30th year. The composite subgrade with L-shaped TPCTs/vertical TPCT/XPS insulation board is an effective method to protect the permafrost foundation and improve the long-term thermal stability of the wide subgrade. The maximum heat flux of evaporation section of the L-shaped TPCT is 18.8% higher than that of the vertical TPCT during the working period of the TPCTs of the composite subgrade.

Thermal performance analysis of hollow cellular concrete block air convection embankment for cold regions

Crushed-rock air convection embankment (ACE) is an excellent passive cooling technique that uses open-graded crushed rocks as a “thermal semi-conductor” to prevent roadbeds from thawing in summer and enhance the cooling effect in winter in permafrost regions. However, the desired crushed rocks needed for ACE are not readily available in interior Alaska, resulting in extremely high construction costs. Previous studies indicated that using the cost-effective cellular concrete for ACE could effectively enhance the cooling performance of ACE and mitigate moisture warping and temperature curling of the asphalt concrete layer. It is promising to be an alternative to crushed rocks for ACE to mitigate pavement distresses. However, the design of cellular concrete ACE needs to be further studied to maximize performance and facilitate future implementation. Hence, two design configurations of cellular concrete block ACEs were proposed in this study. The thermal performance of pavement structures with these two designs was investigated by comparing them with the other four. A total of six pavement structures were analyzed, including a typical flexible pavement in the Northern Region of Alaska and five pavement structures reinforced with different paving interlayers, i.e., silty sand/gravel, crushed rocks, cast-in-place cellular concrete (full insulation), and two types of precast cellular concrete blocks. The thermal profiles, air pressure gradients, and velocities were numerically analyzed in ANSYS Fluent. The numerical results indicated that the two proposed cellular concrete ACEs exhibited a significant heat insulation effect in summer and a desired cooling effect in winter, which raised the permafrost table significantly. The maximum thaw depth of the two proposed cellular concrete ACEs was only 15% of the thaw depth of traditional silty sand/gravel embankment.

Decadal trends in the release of terrigenous organic carbon to the Mackenzie Delta (Canadian Arctic) using satellite ocean color data (1998–2019)

Arctic rivers operate as integrators of northern high latitude regions, where large stocks of soil organic carbon (OC) are currently experiencing rapid warming. Here we show that tracking total OC in the Mackenzie Delta whose upstream catchment is underlain by permafrost soils is now possible using polar-orbiting satellite ocean color observations. A non-parametric trend analysis that is valid for hydrological data shows a significant increase in dissolved OC (DOC) as well as particulate OC (POC) concentrations in late summer (0.019 and 0.069 g m−3 year−1; p < 0.05 for both). Uncertainties of the satellite estimates of DOC and POC do not influence our results. These concentration increases are not related to changes in river discharge. Parallel increases of independent long-term (1979–2018) in situ measurements of thaw depth of the active layer, as well as meteorological and hydrological patterns suggest that these late summer increases can likely be explained by increasing inputs of permafrost OC. This study shows great promise for remote, large-scale detection of catchment-scale thaw impacts from space.

Problems of engineering geomorphology in the settlement zone of the Eg River valley: A case study of Aufeis in Erdenebulgan Soum, Khuvsgul Province, Mongolia

Aufeis formation in the winter season in settlements located in continuous, discontinuous, and isolated permafrost regions of Mongolia has become one of the urgent problems that must be solved in the settlement areas. In this study, the reasons for the formation of Aufeis in the settlement area of Erdenebulgan Soum, Khuvsgul Province, located in the Eg River valley, were clarified. In addition to the analysis of geomorphology and permafrost survey materials, the research was based on satellite image data and calculated using the methods of normalized snow index (NDSI) and snow water index (SWI). In the Eg River valley, the normative depth of seasonal freezing and thawing of subsoil ranges from 2.2-3.7 meters. Depending on the freezing of the winter season, there were long, short, and straight rows of cracks and fractures in the vicinity of river diversions, floodplains, terraces, or along the settlement zone. Over the past 10 years, the average size of the Aufeis area was 5555.8 m², and the average Aufeis volume was 5000.2 m³. In 2022, the Aufeis area increased sharply to 6,381.3 m², which can be related to that year's precipitation and soil temperature fluctuations. According to the area and volume classification of Aufeis in Mongolia, the research area belongs to the III class of medium-sized category, but it is exposed to the space of Aufeis distribution due to the improper expansion of the settlement area and wrong planning. According to the changes in the satellite map over the last 30 years, the diversion of the Eg River has caused the spatial distribution of the Aufeis to move towards the settlement area. This study is important for the planning of the spatial location of towns to determine the methods of pre-research and prevention of permafrost-related phenomena and engineering geomorphological problems.

Modeling Heat Transfer through Permafrost Soil Subjected to Seasonal Freeze-Thaw

The present paper proposes an iterative implicit numerical method for simulating the thaw depth of permafrost soil. For this purpose, the enthalpy-porosity model was used for the phase change process, and the finite difference scheme FTCS (Forward Time Centered Space) was used for discretization. An artificial mushy zone was maintained with the same thickness by keeping the regularization parameter proportional to the temperature gradient. In doing so, we made the scheme more stable and convergence occurred faster. The model accuracy was validated by comparing the numerical results with the analytical Stefan solution and with the results of a derived numerical model, based on an explicit scheme. The model performance was also tested against observation data collected on four different landscapes with different soil profiles and located on a basin underlain by continuous permafrost. It was found that the proposed model matched noticeably well the analytical solution for a volumetric liquid fraction (phi) equal to 0.5 regardless of the grid resolution. Furthermore, compared with the observation data, the model reproduced the annual maximum thaw depth with an absolute error lying between 0.7 and 7.7%. In addition, the designed algorithm allowed the model to converge after a maximum of eight iterations, reducing the computational time by around 75% compared to the explicit model. The results were so encouraging that the model can be included in a hydrological modeling of permafrost watersheds or cold regions in general.

Effects of different rest grazing periods on the reproduction and root characteristics of Carex capillifolia in subalpine meadow

Carex capillifolia is a dominant subalpine meadow plant species with considerable ecological and economic value. We studied the effects of different springtime rest grazing periods on C. capillifolia reproduction and the root characteristics. The rest grazing periods were established according to the soil thawing depth, plant regreening, and the local traditional rest grazing period. We set up five plots from the critical period of soil thawing (T1), the late period of soil thawing (T2), the early period of grass reviving (T3), the late period of grass growing (T4), and the local traditional rest grazing period (T5) to the start of the rest grazing. The end of the rest grazing in each plot was the plant withering period. Results showed that the sexual reproduction effort of T1 was 64.3% higher than that of T5. The root biomass of T5 was significantly lower than that of all the other treatments. The plant height, ear length, number of seeds per ear, reproductive branch density, and the seed yield of T1 were significantly higher than those of all the other plots. The reproductive branch density was significantly positively correlated with the seed yield. The seed yield of T1 was 200.0%, 349.1%, and 340.4% higher than those of T3, T4, and T5, respectively. The root length, surface area, and volume were the highest for T3. The root phenotypic traits and the nutrient storage content indirectly affected each other and jointly formed part of risk diversification strategies. A grey correlation analysis demonstrated that rest grazing during the critical soil thawing period (T1) was conducive to the growth of C. capillifolia. Therefore, springtime rest grazing should start from the critical soil thawing period in subalpine meadows.

Current state and past changes in frozen ground at the Third Pole: A research synthesis

The thermal state of frozen ground and its changes are important for understanding environmental change and supporting related applications to the Earth’s Third Pole, which is a hotspot area for science research. However, challenges remain in data and modelling, meaning that much information is unavailable, especially for the entire Third Pole region. Here, we provided basic statistical data regarding the current state of frozen ground and its changes over the 1960s–2010s across the entire Third Pole by integrating nearly all currently available ground observation data and high-quality spatial data using machine learning models and existing high-quality frozen ground data products. The results show that the current (2000–2018) areal extents of permafrost and seasonally frozen ground in the Third Pole are approximately 1.27 × 106 km2 (1.15 × 106 to 1.39 × 106 km2) and 2.59 × 106 km2, accounting for 28% and 58%, respectively. The areal extent of permafrost region is approximately 50% (23%–93%) larger than that of permafrost area (land underlain by permafrost), especially in some early maps. The corresponding regional average of the mean annual ground temperature is approximately −1.51 °C (−1.75 to −1.27 °C) in the permafrost area. The regional average of active layer thickness overlying the permafrost and the maximum frost depth for regions of seasonally frozen ground are 235 cm (233–237 cm) and 92 cm, respectively. From the 1960s to the 2010s, on average, permafrost in the Third Pole warmed at a rate of 0.17 °C per decade, which was associated with increases in the maximum thaw depth at a rate of 4.42 cm per decade. The regional average of the maximum frost depth declined at a rate of 2.34 cm per decade over the same period. This synthesis highlights the differences between the two terms (permafrost region and permafrost area) and provides crucial information for frozen ground in the Third Pole with higher accuracy for the scientific community and the public.

Simulating the freezing-thawing processes based on MODIS data in the Three-River Souce Region, China

The processes of soil freezing-thawing lead to soil water and heat movement in cold regions, which significantly influences the hydrological and energy cycles in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. This study presents a soil water content coupled with heat transfer model based on physical processes of water and heat movement in frozen soil. The model was calibrated and validated using the measured data of soil temperature and frost and thaw depth at 19 stations in and around the Three-River Source Region of China. The results show that the frozen soil model could capture the processes of soil freezing-thawing processes well at this region. The relationship between model parameters and climate and vegetation factors was analyzed using the observation data and remote sensing data obtained from MODIS, and results showed that the parameter c which represents the soil properties has a good correlation with longitude and vegetation coverage. A multi-regression model was established to estimate the model parameters in regions without observation data and its determination coefficient R2 was 0.82. The mean relative error between calibration and inversion parameters of 19 stations is 6.29%. Thus, the proposed method can be applied to cold regions without observation data to obtain the parameters and simulated the soil freezing-thawing processes.

Interannual and seasonal variations of permafrost thaw depth on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: A comparative study using long short-term memory, convolutional neural networks, and random forest.

An accurate estimation of thaw depth is critical to understanding permafrost changes due to climate warming on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). However, previous studies mainly focused on the interannual changes of active layer thickness (ALT) across the QTP, and little is known about the changes in the seasonal thaw depth. Machine learning (ML) is a critical tool to accurately estimate the ALT of permafrost, but a direct comparison of ML with deep learning (DL) in ALT projection regarding the model performance is still lacking. Here, ML, namely random forest (RF), and DL algorithms like convolutional neural networks (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks were compared to estimate the interannual changes of ALT and seasonal thaw depth on the QTP. Meteorological series, in-situ collected ALT observations, and geospatial information were used as predictors. The results show that both ML and DL methods are capable of estimating ALT and seasonal thaw depth in permafrost areas. The CNN and LSTM models developed using longer lagging times exhibit better performance in thaw depth prediction while the RF models are either mediocre or sometimes even worse as the lagging time increases. The results show that the ALT from 2003 to 2011 on the QTP exhibits an increasing trend, especially in the northern region. In addition, 68.8%, 88.7%, 52.5%, and 47.5% of the permafrost regions on the QTP have deepened seasonal thaw depth in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The correlation between air temperature and permafrost thaw depth ranges from 0.65 to 1 with the time lag ranging from 1 to 32 days. This study shows that ML and DL can be effectively used in retrieving ALT and seasonal thaw depth of permafrost, and could present an efficient way to figure out the interannual and seasonal variations of permafrost conditions under climate warming.

Large herbivores on permafrost— a pilot study of grazing impacts on permafrost soil carbon storage in northeastern Siberia

The risk of carbon emissions from permafrost is linked to an increase in ground temperature and thus in particular to thermal insulation by vegetation, soil layers and snow cover. Ground insulation can be influenced by the presence of large herbivores browsing for food in both winter and summer. In this study, we examine the potential impact of large herbivore presence on the soil carbon storage in a thermokarst landscape in northeastern Siberia. Our aim in this pilot study is to conduct a first analysis on whether intensive large herbivore grazing may slow or even reverse permafrost thaw by affecting thermal insulation through modifying ground cover properties. As permafrost soil temperatures are important for organic matter decomposition, we hypothesize that herbivory disturbances lead to differences in ground-stored carbon. Therefore, we analyzed five sites with a total of three different herbivore grazing intensities on two landscape forms (drained thermokarst basin, Yedoma upland) in Pleistocene Park near Chersky. We measured maximum thaw depth, total organic carbon content, δ13C isotopes, carbon-nitrogen ratios, and sediment grain-size composition as well as ice and water content for each site. We found the thaw depth to be shallower and carbon storage to be higher in intensively grazed areas compared to extensively and non-grazed sites in the same thermokarst basin. First data show that intensive grazing leads to a more stable thermal ground regime and thus to increased carbon storage in the thermokarst deposits and active layer. However, the high carbon content found within the upper 20 cm on intensively grazed sites could also indicate higher carbon input rather than reduced decomposition, which requires further studies including investigations of the hydrology and general ground conditions existing prior to grazing introduction. We explain our findings by intensive animal trampling in winter and vegetation changes, which overcompensate summer ground warming. We conclude that grazing intensity—along with soil substrate and hydrologic conditions—might have a measurable influence on the carbon storage in permafrost soils. Hence the grazing effect should be further investigated for its potential as an actively manageable instrument to reduce net carbon emission from permafrost.

Mismatch of N release from the permafrost and vegetative uptake opens pathways of increasing nitrous oxide emissions in the high Arctic.

Biogeochemical cycling in permafrost-affected ecosystems remains associated with large uncertainties, which could impact the Earth's greenhouse gas budget and future climate policies. In particular, increased nutrient availability following permafrost thaw could perturb the greenhouse gas exchange in these systems, an effect largely unexplored until now. Here, we enhance the terrestrial ecosystem model QUINCY (QUantifying Interactions between terrestrial Nutrient CYcles and the climate system), which simulates fully coupled carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles in vegetation and soil, with processes relevant in high latitudes (e.g., soil freezing and snow dynamics). In combination with site-level and satellite-based observations, we use the model to investigate impacts of increased nutrient availability from permafrost thawing in comparison to other climate-induced effects and CO2 fertilization over 1960 to 2018 across the high Arctic. Our simulations show that enhanced availability of nutrients following permafrost thaw account for less than 15% of the total Gross primary productivity increase over the time period, despite simulated N limitation over the high Arctic scale. As an explanation for this weak fertilization effect, observational and model data indicate a mismatch between the timing of peak vegetative growth (week 26-27 of the year, corresponding to the beginning of July) and peak thaw depth (week 32-35, mid-to-late August), resulting in incomplete plant use of nutrients near the permafrost table. The resulting increasing N availability approaching the permafrost table enhances N loss pathways, which leads to rising nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions in our model. Site-level emission trends of 2mg N m-2 year-1 on average over the historical time period could therefore predict an emerging increasing source of N2 O emissions following future permafrost thaw in the high Arctic.

Slope Instability Analysis in Permafrost Regions by Shear Strength Parameters and Numerical Simulation

With the onset of global warming, the environment has profoundly changed. The melting of ice and slope instability were widely observed in the permafrost regions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, which has destroyed infrastructure and threatened people’s safety. For this study, we conducted a direct shear test, monitored field temperature, and performed a numerical simulation to explore the mechanism of slope instability in the permafrost regions of the Qinghai. The results show that the shear strength of the permafrost soil decreased with the increases in water content and thawing condition. Moreover, the thawing depth of the slopes increased with the rising temperature. From the temperature monitoring data and field observations, cracks and slope instability phenomena were observed in the Qinghai and occurred with the thawing of the permafrost soil. The safety of slopes in the permafrost regions decreased with increases in the temperature, slope gradient, and pore water pressure and with decreases in the shear strength parameters. In addition, the sliding interface had a direct correlation with the freeze–thaw interface, which is a migrated interface of water in liquid form. Therefore, the thawing of the permafrost soil causes the shear strength to decrease and pore water pressure to increase, which leads to slope instability in the permafrost regions of the Qinghai.

Repeated Permafrost Formation and Degradation in Boreal Peatland Ecosystems in Relation to Climate Extremes, Fire, Ecological Shifts, and a Geomorphic Legacy

Permafrost formation and degradation creates a highly patchy mosaic of boreal peatland ecosystems in Alaska driven by climate, fire, and ecological changes. To assess the biophysical factors affecting permafrost dynamics, we monitored permafrost and ecological conditions in central Alaska from 2005 to 2021 by measuring weather, land cover, topography, thaw depths, hydrology, soil properties, soil thermal regimes, and vegetation cover between burned (1990 fire) and unburned terrain. Climate data show large variations among years with occasional, extremely warm–wet summers and cold–snowless winters that affect permafrost stability. Microtopography and thaw depth surveys revealed both permafrost degradation and aggradation. Thaw depths were deeper in post-fire scrub compared to unburned black spruce and increased moderately during the last year, but analysis of historical imagery (1954–2019) revealed no increase in thermokarst rates due to fire. Recent permafrost formation was observed in older bogs due to an extremely cold–snowless winter in 2007. Soil sampling found peat extended to depths of 1.5–2.8 m with basal radiocarbon dates of ~5–7 ka bp, newly accumulating post-thermokarst peat, and evidence of repeated episodes of permafrost formation and degradation. Soil surface temperatures in post-fire scrub bogs were ~1 °C warmer than in undisturbed black spruce bogs, and thermokarst bogs and lakes were 3–5 °C warmer than black spruce bogs. Vegetation showed modest change after fire and large transformations after thermokarst. We conclude that extreme seasonal weather, ecological succession, fire, and a legacy of earlier geomorphic processes all affect the repeated formation and degradation of permafrost, and thus create a highly patchy mosaic of ecotypes resulting from widely varying ecological trajectories within boreal peatland ecosystems.

Carbon and nitrogen cycling dynamics following permafrost thaw in the Northwest Territories, Canada

Rapid climate warming across northern high latitudes is leading to permafrost thaw and ecosystem carbon release while simultaneously impacting other biogeochemical cycles including nitrogen. We used a two-year laboratory incubation study to quantify concomitant changes in carbon and nitrogen pool quantity and quality as drivers of potential CO2 production in thawed permafrost soils from eight soil cores collected across the southern Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada. These data were contextualized via in situ annual thaw depth measurements from 2015 to 2019 at 40 study sites that varied in burn history. We found with increasing time since experimental thaw the dissolved carbon and nitrogen pool quality significantly declined, indicating sustained microbial processing and selective immobilization across both pools. Piecewise structural equation modeling revealed CO2 trends were predominantly predicted by initial soil carbon content with minimal influence of dissolved phase carbon. Using these results, we provide a first-order estimate of potential near-surface permafrost soil losses of up to 80 g C m−2 over one year in southern NWT, exceeding regional historic mean primary productivity rates in some areas. Taken together, this research provides mechanistic knowledge needed to further constrain the permafrost‑carbon feedback and parameterize Earth system models, while building on empirical evidence that permafrost soils are at high risk of becoming weaker carbon sinks or even significant carbon sources under a changing climate.