Thai Stock Market Research Articles

Development of ESG Factors for Enhancing Factor Model in the Thai Stock Market

Development of ESG Factors for Enhancing Factor Model in the Thai Stock Market

Corporate governance, policies, and outcomes: The appointment of military connected boards and sustainability

AbstractThis paper explores whether a military connected board is an effective corporate governance mechanism, leading to sustainable corporate policies and outcomes. Appointing military‐experienced directors could be a firm's good and ethical business strategy if it positively influences firms' decision making process and eventually outcomes. Relying on over 6800 firm‐year observations over the period of 2000–2018 in the Thai stock market, we find military connected boards mis‐utilize firms' resources, representing a weakening governance mechanism―in line with agency cost theory. Specifically, firms with military officials on their boards are highly levered, keep low cash reserves, pay low dividends, but underinvest, and historically underperformed. However, we find a positive relationship between military connected boards and firm value, measured by Tobin's Q, representing potential future growth and supporting resource dependency hypothesis. Although backward‐looking analyses point toward irresponsible and unsustainable corporate policies which ultimately destroy corporate outcomes, forward‐looking evidence sees a good use of military connected board members in bidding on the government's projects.

Stock Movement Prediction Using Machine Learning Based on Technical Indicators and Google Trend Searches in Thailand

Machine learning for stock market prediction has recently been popular for identifying stock selection strategies and providing market insights. In this study, we adopted machine learning algorithms to analyze technical indicators, and Google Trends search terms based on the Thai stock market. This study uses three datasets, which are technical indicators, Google Trends search terms, and a combination of the two. The objectives were to study and identify the factors in stock selection, develop and evaluate portfolio selection models using keyword proxies from the three datasets mentioned, and compare the performance of the selected algorithms. In the prediction process, we discovered that the combination of technical indicators and Google Trends search terms while applying Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) exhibited the highest ROC curves. For success prediction rate and annualized return, Random Forest and XGBoost were almost similar but still different. While XGBoost performs well during a period of market critical conditions (COVID-19), Random Forest performs marginally better than XGBoost during normal market conditions in terms of average success rate.

Factors Impact Investor Decision to Hospitality & Tourism Transaction in SET50 Index Stock Market in Thailand

In early 2020, the outbreak of new coronavirus did not reverse the trend of global spread until May 2021, and even the 
 situation in some countries was worse than that in 2020 which is a comprehensive challenge to human health, economic growth, 
 social development, national security and international relations. 
 Under the premise of a poor global economic environment, it is important for tourism practitioners and investors to make the right 
 decision and make a profit in the Thai stock ticket market SET50.On the basis of previous studies on Thai stock market and Thai 
 Investors’ financial behavior, this paper draws on previous research results.
 For investors, when monetary policy is introduced, they can refer to this study to modify their investment analysis. It also has a 
 certain reference value for hospitality and tourists.

Stakeholder engagement, military ties, and firm performance

AbstractCorporate social responsibility (CSR) and stakeholder engagement have become increasingly important in the global economy. Socially responsible firms take their engagement with stakeholders seriously. Yet, the military, a very important stakeholder in Thailand is rarely investigated. Motivated by this and the importance of CSR and stakeholder engagement, we explore whether and which channels of military ties influence firm performance in the Thai stock market. To alleviate potential endogeneity and omitted variables concerns, we adopt two stages of least square instrumental‐variable analysis. Consistent with resource dependency theory, we find military ties increase firm performance and the influence of military ties is much stronger during the military‐led government. In general market conditions, this relation is in fact driven by the indirect ties through the training of the National Defence College of Thailand (NDCT). However, during military‐led government, the ties through NDCT worsen firm performance while direct military ties increase firm performance.

Do algorithm traders mitigate insider trading profits?: Evidence from the Thai stock market.

This paper asks whether algorithm traders (AT) mitigate insider trading profits in the Thai stock market over the period of 2010–2016. We find that in general it does but not in the case of buy side, big trades nor the executive trades. Our findings suggest that, to some extent, AT can take important role to increase an efficiency in stock market by processing the public information and incorporating it into price at ultra-fast speed. Additional robustness checks based on the instrumental variable approach confirm our findings.

An examination of calendar anomalies: evidence from the Thai stock market

PurposeThe study examines the existence of calendar anomalies, including the day-of-the-week (DOW) effect and the January effect, in the Stock Exchange of Thailand.Design/methodology/approachUsing daily stock returns from March 2014 to March 2019, the study performs regression analysis to examine predictable patterns in stock returns, the DOW effect and the January effect, respectively.FindingsThere is strong evidence of a persistent monthly pattern and weekday seasonality in the Thai stock market. Specifically, Monday returns are negative and significantly lower than the returns on other trading days of the week, and January returns are positive and significantly higher than the returns on other months of the year.Practical implicationsThe findings offer managerial implications for investors seeking trading strategies to maximize the possibility of reaching investment goals and inform policymakers regarding the current state of the Thai stock market.Originality/valueFirst, the study investigates calendar anomalies in the Thai stock market, specifically the DOW effect and the January effect, which have received relatively little attention in the literature. Second, this is the first study to examine calendar anomalies in the Thai stock market across different groups of companies and stock trading characteristics using a range of composite indexes. Furthermore, the study uses data during the period 2014–2019, which should provide up-to-date information on the patterns of stock returns in Thailand.

Jumps and Cojumps analyses of major and minor cryptocurrencies.

This paper empirically examines jumps and cojumps of both major and minor cryptocurrencies. Understanding the nature of their jumps and cojumps plays an important role in risk management, asset allocation and pricing of derivatives. We find that all cryptocurrencies display significant jumps. Furthermore, minor cryptocurrencies appear to have significantly higher jump intensity and jump size than major cryptocurrencies. Finally, we find that cojumps of the Thai stock market index and minor cryptocurrencies have a greater intensity than that of major cryptocurrencies.

The Impact of Foreign Ownership on Stock Price Volatility: Evidence from Thailand

This paper examines the impact of foreign ownership on stock price volatility in an emerging market, namely, Thailand. The data were obtained from SETSMART, the database of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). After removing financial firms, banks, and insurance companies as well as filtering outliers, the final sample covers 1,755 firm-year observations from 371 nonfinancial firms listed on the SET over the five-year period from 2014 to 2018. The regression model consists of stock price volatility, measured by two methods, as the dependent variable, foreign ownership as the main independent variable, and firm characteristics including firm size, leverage, market-to-book ratio, and stock turnover as the control variables. The pooled OLS, fixed effects, and random effects estimations are employed to examine the relationship between foreign ownership and stock price volatility. The results reveal that foreign ownership has a negative and significant impact on stock price volatility. The two-stage least squares (2SLS) are also performed to address potential endogeneity problem. The results still indicate a negative relationship between foreign ownership and stock price volatility. Taken together, the findings of this study suggest that foreign investors help reduce stock price volatility and thus stabilize share price in the Thai stock market.

Evolution, structure and dynamics of the Thai stock market: A network perspective

We study 115 stocks from the Thai Stock Market (SET) from 2006 to 2015. The evolution of correlations between stocks is estimated for different periods of world major financial events and the effect of these global financial events on the Thai stock market is studied. A spectral analysis of the correlation matrix based on random matrix theory is done. The evolution and dynamics of threshold networks derived from the correlation matrix are studied. The entropic measure on the eigenvector gives the information contained in each eigenvector which shows that eigenvector on lower side of spectrum are highly localized as compared to higher side of spectrum. The evolution of various topological properties of network are investigated. Thai stock market is found to be less robust during the global financial crisis.

Factors Influencing Retail Investors’ Trading Behaviour in the Thai Stock Market

This paper investigates trading behaviour among Thai retail investors in 2016. Using detailed survey data from 491 investors, we examine the characteristics and behavioural patterns that lead to investor bias. Empirical results in the behavioural finance literature indicate that retail investors may not behave reasonably. Behavioural biases may influence investor decisions and affect financial markets. These studies, however, are limited to subsamples of the overall investor groups studied and mainly focus on developed markets. We find that biases are common among investors and that men are more overconfident than women. Moreover, we discover that investors with more experience in trading are less likely to hold their stocks for long periods of time. Further, investors aged 45 and younger hold more diversified portfolios. Another finding is that participants with an income of more than 50,000 Baht a month and/or who employ a number of brokers hold more diversified portfolios. This evidence is consistent with the findings that have been reported for Turkey, India, and Vietnam, indicating that demographic factors are useful for distinguishing between investors in terms of the level of overconfidence bias they exhibit. This result confirms that demographic factors play a role in differentiating and classifying retail investors and should motivate future researchers to consider these factors in their research.

COMMODITY PRICES AND THE STOCK MARKET IN THAILAND

This study aims to investigate the association between Thai stock market and the commodity markets using twenty-year historical monthly data from January 2000 to January 2020. Commodity prices used in the research consist of the prices of crude oil, natural gas, liquified natural gas, commodity agricultural raw materials, and gold. The traditional VAR is used in analyzing the relations between the commodity prices and stock index. The findings show how changes in each commodity prices had significant influence on the stock market. Both evidences of a long-run and a short-run impacts are examined to determine if the past values of changes in the prices of energy, agricultural raw materials, and gold are important in predicting the developments in the stock market or not. The results from the study provide the evidence that Thai stock market is responsive to energy-related, precious metal, and commodity-related indicators. Keywords: Energy price Commodity price, Gold price, Stock return, Granger Causality, Vector Autoregressive JEL Classifications: E44, G10, Q43 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.10298

Empirical evidence of profitability anomaly in the Thai stock market

Empirical evidence of profitability anomaly in the Thai stock market

The Effects of Pandemic Event on the Stock Exchange of Thailand

The unprecedented global pandemic of COVID-19 has greatly impacted the stock market in terms of both price reactions and the influences of volatility. Using a sample of 46 stocks listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand, in this paper, an event study technique is developed considering idiosyncratic volatility to analyze the reactions of stock prices and market volatility in Thailand during the period of the pandemic. The empirical results suggest that most securities in the Thai stock market have been adversely affected by the pandemic, as reflected in the abnormal returns compared to the period before the COVID-19 outbreak. This is mainly attributable to the curtailed economic activities induced by the pandemic as well as policy responses such as social distancing, quarantine and temporary market shutdown. Nevertheless, stocks in different sectors have been shown to have varied in terms of price responses, as some businesses may have benefitted from the pandemic. In terms of market volatility, the cumulated abnormal volatility (CAV) calculated in the paper suggests that volatility in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) was significantly higher during the event window of COVID-19.

Asymmetric correlation and hedging effectiveness of gold & cryptocurrencies: From pre-industrial to the 4th industrial revolution✰

This paper examines the long-run and short-run asymmetric effects of gold and cryptocurrency returns on the Thai stock market. Employing daily data on gold prices from 2000 to 2019 and on cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) from 2013 to 2019 in a linear and non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework, we investigate and contrast the hedging effectiveness of gold and bitcoins for equities. This study also evaluates whether hedging potential of gold or cryptocurrency remains equally strong in bearish and bullish conditions of the stock market. Our key findings on stock and gold returns reveal that the effects of gold on the stock market are asymmetric in most of the cases. Negative asymmetry is more likely to occur regardless of stock market conditions. On the other hand, there is very limited evidence showing the meaningful effect of cryptocurrency. The robustness of the ARDL bounds test of co-integration provides evidence for a strong long-run relationship in all cases. Contrary to the existing literature, our results suggest that neither gold nor cryptocurrency acts as a good instrument for hedging in the stock market. Correlations between stock/gold and stock/cryptocurrency pairs are found to be positive in most cases. Our findings imply that adding gold or cryptocurrency to a stock portfolio does not enhance its risk-adjusted return.

The impacts of macroeconomic and financial indicators on stock market index: Evidence from Thailand

Market capitalisation and foreign investor transactions of the Thai Stock market have expanded significantly over the past 10 years. This research paper employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to examine the impacts of key macroeconomic and financial indicators on the stock market of Thailand. We applied two models in this study. The first model is based on macroeconomic indicators such as broad money supply, consumer price index (CPI), manufacturing production index (MPI), exchange rate, and exports. The second model is based on financial and commodity indicators such as volatility index, price-to-earnings ratio, gold price index, and oil price index (OIL). Consistent with theory, the results indicate that the Thai stock market index has a long-run relationship with the selected indicators such as exchange rate, broad money supply, CPI, price-to-earnings ratio, volatility index, and OIL. Therefore, the long-run coefficients estimated in this study could be utilised for managing long-term investments.

On the dynamic relationship between gold investor sentiment index and stock market

PurposeConsidering the unique data of the gold investor sentiment index in Thailand, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the bivariate dynamic relationship between the gold investor sentiment index and stock market return, as well as that between the gold investor sentiment index and stock market volatility, using the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) methodology. The author presents and discusses the findings both for the full sample and at the industry level. The results support prior literature that stocks in different industries do not react similarly to investor sentiment.Design/methodology/approachThe PVAR methodology with the GMM estimation is found to be superior to other static panel methodologies due to considering both unobservable time-invariant and time-variant factors, as well as being suitable for relatively short time periods. The panel data approach improves the statistical power of the tests and ensures more reliable results.FindingsIn general, a negative and unidirectional association from gold investor sentiment to stock returns is observed. However, the gold sentiment-stock realized volatility relationship is negative and bidirectional, and there exists a greater impact of a stock’s realized volatility on gold investor sentiment. Importantly, evidence at the industry level is stronger than that at the aggregate level in both return and volatility cases, confirming the role of gold investor sentiment in the Thai stock market. The capital flow effect and the contagion effect explain the gold sentiment-stock return relationship and the gold sentiment-stock volatility relationship, respectively.Research limitations/implicationsThe gold price sentiment index can be used as a factor for stock return predictability and stock realized volatility predictability in the Thai equity market.Practical implicationsPractitioners and traders can employ the gold price sentiment index to make a profit in the stock market in Thailand.Originality/valueThis is the first paper to use panel data to investigate the relationships between the gold investor sentiment and stock returns and between the gold investor sentiment and stocks’ realized volatility, respectively.

Seasonality in the Thai stock market: The lottery effect

This study focuses on the influence of the lottery day effect in the Thai stock market. Daily stock index of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) from January 1, 1990 to October 3, 2018 are used to examine the impact of the lottery effect on the return and volatility of the stock indices. For robustness test, we also investigate this effect in three periods, the Asian financial crisis period, the global crisis period, and the whole period. Using the GARCH(1,1) and TGARCH(1,1) models, the results show that there is the persistence of volatility and volatility patterns of clustering, asymmetry and leverage effect in the Thai context. The results significantly suggest that lottery day is priced as a systematic risk factor in the Thai stock market and plays an important role to predict the future returns and volatility for the Asian crisis period.

Shock and Volatility Spillovers between Crude Oil Price and Stock Returns: Evidence for Thailand

This paper employs a bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1,1) model to examine shock and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock markets by taking into account the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis. Daily data from crude oil market and the Thai stock market during February 6, 2004 and September 14, 2015 are used in the analyses. The whole sample is divided into the pre- and post- crisis periods. The results show that there are no spillover effects between oil price and stock returns in the pre-crisis period. In the post-crisis period, there are unilateral spillover effects from oil price to some equity sector returns. In the market level, there are unilateral spillovers of shock and volatility from oil price to stock market return. The findings in this paper are crucial for financial market participation to understand shock and volatility transmissions from oil to stock markets such that portfolio management should take into account the presence of oil price risk.

Seasonality in the Thai stock market: the lottery effect

This study focuses on the influence of the lottery day effect in the Thai stock market. Daily stock index of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) from January 1, 1990 to October 3, 2018 are used to examine the impact of the lottery effect on the return and volatility of the stock indices. For robustness test, we also investigate this effect in three periods, the Asian financial crisis period, the global crisis period, and the whole period. Using the GARCH(1,1) and TGARCH(1,1) models, the results show that there is the persistence of volatility and volatility patterns of clustering, asymmetry and leverage effect in the Thai context. The results significantly suggest that lottery day is priced as a systematic risk factor in the Thai stock market and plays an important role to predict the future returns and volatility for the Asian crisis period.