Technology Diffusion Process Research Articles

Green technology diffusion model and simulation considering enterprise technology absorption capacity

ABSTRACT The diffusion and wide application of green technologies are important means to achieve climate change mitigation. Concerning the green technology absorption capacity and technology diffusion willingness of enterprises, this paper divided enterprises into four categories, constructed a green technology diffusion model and analysed the equilibrium point and stability of the model. Then, we studied the diffusion process and laws of green technology through simulation experiments. The results show that in the green technology diffusion system, the basic regeneration number is the key factor in determining the equilibrium state of green technology diffusion. The disease-free equilibrium point of the green technology diffusion system is globally asymptotically stable, and the endemic equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable. In order to improve the speed and scale of green technology diffusion, it is necessary to create green technology diffusion sources through multiple channels, improve enterprise technology absorption capacity through multiple methods, and enhance enterprise green technology diffusion willingness at multiple levels.

CO2 emissions change in Tianjin: The driving factors and the role of CCS

The environmental damage caused by the greenhouse effect is intensified by the continuous rise of carbon dioxide emissions. As a major industrial base in northern China, Tianjin has been emitting more carbon and thus faces a greater challenge to reduce its emissions. To meet the dual carbon goals of Tianjin, it is critical to identify influencing factors of carbon emissions and to find suitable technologies to effectively reduce emissions. In this study, the energy consumption data of Tianjin from 2005 to 2020 were analyzed via the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI). The carbon emission driving factors were decomposed and the contributions of four primary factors, including energy structure, energy intensity, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and population to CO2 emissions of this region, were evaluated. The ideal characteristics of the oil reservoirs with low permeability and the suitable carbon dioxide sinks make carbon capture and storage(CCS) technology implementation feasible in Tianjin. Despite this, the effect of CCS technology on CO2 emissions in the future is still uncertain. Thus, the Bass model was firstly introduced to assess the future development trend of CCS technology and its capacity of CO2 emission reduction. The results revealed that energy intensity was the primary contribution to reducing carbon emissions, while GDP per capita was the main contributor to the overall increase of CO2 emissions in 2005–2020. The CCS technology diffusion process is fast, with rapid growth starting in 2030 and reaching growth saturation in 2040. According to the scenario analysis, CCS could make a substantial contribution of 2674.78× 104 tons per year after 2040 to the carbon emission reduction of Tianjin. Therefore, the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies as well as the expansion of CCS projects are essential to ensure that Tianjin achieves its carbon neutrality goal by 2060. This study offers helpful guidance for other cities to forecast their carbon emission reduction trajectories and establish emission reduction strategies.

Evolutionary Game Analysis of the Innovation and Diffusion of Water-Saving Technology

Water resources are indispensable strategic primary resources for sustainable social development. To solve the water shortage problem, promoting the innovation and diffusion of water-saving technology is the key to improvement. In contrast, governmental regulation is a necessary means to promote the innovation of water-saving technology. This study builds a game model with the involvement of governments and businesses. The objective of the game model is to simulate the performance of imposing a tax or a subsidy to promote water-saving technology. In addition, this study introduces the bionic model Lotka–Volterra to investigate the diffusion process of water-saving technology by simulating the performance of the growth rate and competition coefficient. To explain this process more scientifically and intuitively, this paper uses MATLAB to simulate it. The results show that (i) when the subsidy coefficient is between 0.6 and 0.7, the enthusiasm of the government and enterprises to participate in innovating water-saving technology is high; (ii) when the tax penalty coefficient is higher than 0.8, it can not only motivate governmental control but also promote the innovation of enterprises’ water-saving technology; and (iii) the final equilibrium of the diffusion of water-saving technology is irrelevant to the growth rate in the long term, but it is closely related to the competition coefficient. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward some relevant political suggestions to promote the innovation and diffusion of water-saving technology, such as reasonably increasing the water resources tax and government subsidies.

Analysis the Critical Factors of M-government Service Acceptance: An Integrating Theoretical Model between TAM and ECM

The development of smartphones has an essential role in digital services, which have the advantage of access to health services that can be performed anywhere and anytime. Unfortunately, the diffusion process of smartphone technology in the provision of health services faces the problem of decreasing the actual use of mobile health applications. Previous studies on m-government health services have also focused on using TAM and UTAUT to predict individual user behavior. A gap in the literature has been identified in previous studies. This study investigates the critical factors for the individual acceptance of m-government health services, especially the Peduli Lindungi mobile health service. The two theoretical models, TAM and ECM, were integrated to enhance the body of knowledge in predicting individual behavior in the m-government healthcare context. A quantitative method was used to analyse a total of 200 data. PLS-SEM was used to analyze the outer and inner models. The findings of this study support all hypotheses. The study's findings show that Perceived Usefulness, Perceived Easy to Use, and Satisfaction significantly affect on Intention Use; Perceived Usefulness, Perceived Easy to Use, and Expectation Confirmatory significantly affect on Satisfaction, Perceived Easy to Use has a significant effect on Perceived Usefulness. Expectation confirmation significantly affected Perceived Usefulness and perceived ease of use. The proposed model is successfully validated. Future research could consider integrating these theoretical models to assess the critical factors influencing the acceptance and use of digital services in other contexts.

Diffusion path of leading technology in new energy industry based on fsQCA — take China's solar energy industry as an example

ABSTRACT With the continuous reduction of fossil energy storage in the world, the environmental problems caused by fossil energy are becoming increasingly prominent. The intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also led to a crisis in the global energy supply. Under the international background of energy conservation and emission reduction, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to systematically and deeply study the diffusion path of new energy industry-leading technology and put forward relevant policies and suggestions scientifically and feasible for promoting the diffusion activities of new energy industry-leading technology. This paper uses literature analysis to determine the external and internal factors that influence the diffusion of new energy industry-leading technology, and analysis of the configuration of various factors through the fsQCA method, the diffusion path of leading technology in the new energy industry is obtained. The technology and environment curve is drawn to divide the technology diffusion process into different stages. In addition, we selected the solar energy industry, a relatively perfect branch of China's new energy industry with a long development history, for case analysis to verify the diffusion path of leading technology in the new energy industry proposed in the article.

Low-carbon technology diffusion and economic growth of China: an evolutionary general equilibrium framework

The thorough transition of energy system is required to achieve the Paris Agreement goal. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a common tool for estimating the energy transition pathway and the impact of low-carbon policies on economic growth. However, CGE models encounter challenges on modeling diffusion of new technologies. This study proposed a novel evolutionary dynamic general equilibrium model to capture the nonlinear, path-dependent and S-shaped technology diffusion process, and examined the low-carbon transition pathway of power sector and its impact on economic growth of China. We found that imposing a moderate carbon tax and avoiding the over-reliance on coal-fired power could achieve the near-zero emissions of power sector, avoid the large economic loss and hasten the economic growth in the long term. The evolutionary framework may be useful for developing the next-generation model, particularly for simulating the diffusion of new technologies, and their structural effects on economic dynamics.

Complexity model and Mars colonization

PurposeThis paper aims to discuss the complexities and foresight of Mars colonization. There are many pioneers competing in a space race to Mars, for example, Elon Musk – SpaceX, Jeff Bezos – Blue Origin and Richard Branson – Virgin Orbit. The analyses are focused on the aerospace industry – the process of space adventures to Mars.Design/methodology/approachThis study offers new methodological approaches – the development of a complexity metric and system innovation mode – to analyze how the complexities relate to the systemic nature of innovation. The complexity metric and system innovation model can be applied in various industries. These analysis tools can help gain insights into the strategies for achieving the diffusion of commercial space.FindingsThe analyses of findings have shown that, despite various attempts among the pioneers in a space race to colonize Mars (Elon Musk – SpaceX, Jeff Bezos – Blue Origin and Richard Branson – Virgin Orbit, among others), the aerospace industry has not yet reached a stage of commercialization. The commercial space to Mars is of low systemic nature at present. Many companies compete in a space race to develop technologies on a proprietary basis. However, the highest complexity level suggests a multinational and intergovernmental collaboration to achieve economies of scale and economies of scope as well as accelerate the process of technology diffusion – successful commercial space for the interplanetary settlement.Originality/valueThe main contribution that shows originality and value of this paper is the development of a complexity metric and system innovation model which can be used to explore how the complexities relate to the systemic nature of innovation and how they relate to the strategies in managing technological innovations. The new methodological approaches can be used and applied to various industries.

Determination the parameters of model the technological process of diffusion in sugar production on the basis of neuro network identification

The article considers the sugar industry's importance in the country's food supply. The complexity of technological processes characterizes sugar factories. A system analysis of the technical operation of diffusion and an analysis of indicators of the diffusion process in the diffusion equipment were carried out. An analysis of the mathematical support of automated control systems of complex technological processes is given. The assessment of material, quality, and energy indicators was carried out, as well as the formation of the necessary information variables, which makes it possible to determine the structure of the technological process control system. To effectively manage the complex dynamic technological process of diffusion, it is proposed to use neurocontrol. The use of linear regression models was considered to determine the type of mathematical models in the system of automated control of technological processes in the diffusion department of the sugar factory. When building regression models, a significant number of input and output components of the technology diffusion process were considered. Two variants of regression models of the diffusion process were considered. The obtained regression models were analyzed, and the significance of the indicators of the diffusion process was determined. For an adequate description of the complex diffusion process in an automated control system, it is proposed to use models based on neural network identification. Significant indicators of regression models were taken as the main indicators of the process. The construction of mathematical models that make it possible to respond to changes in the technological process adequately boils down to the issue of building neural network models based on a multilayer perceptron and a radial base network. The most effective model structures were determined from various types of neural network models. The control activation time when using the proposed model was 3 minutes. The error of identification of the received models was 5-7%. Keywords: diffusion equipment, mathematical model, neural network, regression equation, control, identification.

Digital Divide: An Econometric Study of the Determinants in Information-poor Countries

There can not be two opinions on the importance of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) for economic development. However, real disparities exist in access to and use of ICT across countries. The digital divide is a complicated matter of varying levels of access, basic usage, and applications of ICT among countries and peoples. Using the Gompertz Technology Diffusion model, this paper attempts to measure the contribution of factors such as affordability, knowledge, infrastructure, human capital, trade openness, and economic and social environment in the technology diffusion process, specially in the case of information-poor countries.

Multistakeholder Collaboration to Enhance the Scalability of Jarwo Super Technology: An Innovation Platform Perspective

<p align="justify">The process of accelerating the diffusion of research and development (R&D) results in an agricultural innovation system (AIS) can be realized through an innovation platform approach. This study examines the collaboration of multi-stakeholders in the process of development and diffusion of the Jajar Legowo (Jarwo) Super technology through the perspective of innovation platform. There have been few studies in the area to look at the structure of technology diffusion process to achieve a scalability of impact. This study will fill the gap by looking at the structure of multi-stakeholders’ network and the working mechanism of the platform to get understanding on the delivery process of Public Research Organization (PRO)’s research result at a systemic level. The analysis of this research is equipped with the application of a co-word analysis. This tool is used to map issues based on the actor's function, namely the role in the development and diffusion of Jarwo Super technology. The results of the study will contribute to the theoretical development of innovation platform in AIS. It also provides a basis for policy makers and related stakeholders on how innovation platform can strengthen agricultural development programs in a wider organizational context.</p>

OP88 Drawing Lines In The Sand: How Do We Define The Scope Of Analysis In HTA And Economic Evaluation?

IntroductionWe explore how the scope of analysis is defined in health technology assessment (HTA) and economic evaluation and consider the potential implications of these decisions.MethodsThe scope of analysis, including decisions about which methods and domains of HTA to include in the assessment, which costs, and health outcomes are most meaningful, and which comparators are the most relevant are typically informed by the needs of the decision-maker. We undertook two systematic scoping reviews to assess: (i) to what extent systems thinking is considered in literature-based technology assessments; and (ii) how the scope of the analysis is defined in economic evaluation using Clostridioides difficile infection as an exemplar. We synthesized the findings from these reviews and offer three key observations for future research and exploration in the field of HTA.ResultsOur scoping reviews found that the scope of analysis in economic evaluations typically focus on single interventions, often ignoring upstream and downstream interventions. Similarly, published technology assessments have narrowly defined and inconsistent scopes of analysis, with limited consideration of indirect health and non-health impacts. Three key observations for the field of HTA include: (i) economic evaluations focus on the value of single heath interventions. A focus on a single health intervention may simplify the analysis; however, will this siloed decision-making lead to optimal health resource allocation? (ii) published assessments have inconsistently defined scopes of analysis. A decision problem that focuses on the needs of the decision-maker is practical; however, will inconsistencies in perspectives across assessments create unfair conceptualizations of value? (iii) HTA is technology-focused, not patient-focused. A technology-focused HTA system aligns with the technology diffusion process; however, does this move us away from the patient-centered mandate of HTA?ConclusionsThe dynamic nature of HTA leads to many conceptualizations of value. Considering the potential implications of narrowly defined, inconsistent, and technology-focused scopes of analyses may have consequences on achieving a patient-centered high-quality health system.

Blockchain diffusion: the role of consulting firms

Blockchain is one of the most promising technologies with a highly disruptive potential, yet many aspects of this innovation remain unclear in the current body of research. One of them is the whole adoption and diffusion process of blockchain technology, which needs more attention from researchers. This study has adopted a qualitative method to investigate the role of consultants in blockchain diffusion, relying on data from 14 semi-structured interviews conducted with blockchain consultants. The various roles of these key players were identified and challenges related to the technology analyzed by means of the Diffusion of Innovation Theory (DOI) and the Technology – Organization – Environment (TOE) framework. According to the results obtained, consultants’ roles range from technology brokers to quality filters. The same results also revealed that the most important barriers to blockchain adoption and diffusion include the lack of knowledge and understanding of the technology, which contributes to promoting unconscious or forced adoption. This paper sheds light on how consulting firms and blockchain-oriented start-ups operate to impact the diffusion of blockchain while dismantling barriers to adoption.

Diffusion of Agricultural Technology Innovation: Research Progress of Innovation Diffusion in Chinese Agricultural Science and Technology Parks

With the rapid development of agricultural technology in China, a new model of agricultural technology diffusion, represented by agricultural science and technology parks, has been formed. We systematically sort out the progress of agricultural technology diffusion-related research based on a proposed research framework of technology diffusion in agricultural science and technology parks. The growth mechanism of agricultural technology poles, agricultural technology diffusion system, and its characteristics are analyzed. An index system of technology diffusion environment evaluation is summarized. From the perspective of the “basic” paradigm, we discuss the characteristics of the time process (diffusion stage, diffusion speed, diffusion breadth) and the spatial process (diffusion effect, spatial pattern) of technology diffusion in agricultural science and technology parks and their influence mechanisms. The fundamental law of “point-axis” diffusion of technology diffusion in the park is summarized. From the perspective of the “adoption” paradigm, we analyzed the influencing factors and mechanisms of farmers’ technology adoption. The effects of different environments and technologies with different attributes on farmers’ adoption behavior are explored. Based on the latest research results, we summarized new business agents’ technology adoption behaviors and mechanisms. Finally, we point out the issues that need to be further explored in studying the technology diffusion of agricultural innovations.

ICT, technological diffusion and economic growth in Chinese cities

This study uses a rich city-level dataset to analyse the relationship between information and communication technology (ICT) and economic growth in Chinese cities during 2001–2016. It is shown that ICT not only improves the aggregate efficiency of a city but also helps the city absorb technological diffusion from the frontier city. In addition, distance plays little role in technological diffusion process associated with ICT. Cities geographically farther away from or closer to the frontier city can equally benefit from technological diffusion as long as they have the same level of ICT development.

Multivariate Analysis: Investigating the Adoption of Customer Relation Management System among the Business Establishments in Butuan City, Philippines

The purpose of this study was to determine the usefulness of different types of multivariate analyses in predicting CRM system adoption among selected commercial establishments in Butuan City, Philippines. The researchers employed the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), and the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) were used as independent variables, the Diffusion of Innovation (DOI) was used as a mediating variable, and respondents' profile was used as a moderating variable. The researchers generated empirical data for both descriptive and correlational analyses by utilizing the Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) model, Hierarchical Regression Analysis (HRA) moderation, Hierarchical Regression Analysis (HRA) mediation analysis, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) techniques. The researchers were able to collect 148 responses out of 1,765 registered business establishment in Butuan City, and data were treated with different type of statistical tools. The descriptive information about CRM system acceptance using technology-organization-environment framework, most of the business establishments responses are verbally interpreted as “acceptable”, while the features of CRM system such as compatibility, relative advantage, and complexity are verbally interpreted as “high” and the possibility of adopting CRM system is verbally interpreted as “influential” indicating that the factors included in technology adoption models are effective in projecting the intended results while most of the organizations agreed that CRM system can help them in improving their business performance while providing better customer service and customer relationship management. The results of ANOVA test showed that there are no significant differences on the assessment of the features of CRM system indicating that most of the respondents agreed that CRM system can have value in their business once it is implemented in their respective organization. The overall likelihood of CRM adoption among the business establishments showing R-squared of .863 indicating that the MRA model predicted 86 percent of the variance in technology adoption core contexts model that can explain factors influencing business establishments in Butuan City to implement CRM system as part of their marketing strategy. The HRA moderation model showed that the respondent’ profile cannot moderate the relationship between the level of technology adoption contexts and the possibility of CRM system adoption showing new finding. The mediation analyses revealed that perceived features of the CRM system have no significant effect to the relationship between the level of technology adoption contexts and the possibility of CRM system adoption the finding contradict to the previous study where in the CRM system features can influence to adoption. The findings have practical implications for business owners considering CRM adoption as part of their marketing strategy. Though the researchers believed that this study has contributed a lot to the body of knowledge of CRM system adoption both in local and international context and were able to expand the TAM and TOE frameworks through adding constructs that are relevant to the study, the results of interpretations and analyses are still not enough because of limited sample size, limited coverage on target population, and some factors in technology acceptance models are not included in this study. Future researchers may consider including the technology adoption classifications, the process of technology diffusion, system risks, and link it to the framework such as business performance.

Dual-Use and Trustworthy? A Mixed Methods Analysis of AI Diffusion Between Civilian and Defense R&D

Artificial Intelligence (AI) seems to be impacting all industry sectors, while becoming a motor for innovation. The diffusion of AI from the civilian sector to the defense sector, and AI’s dual-use potential has drawn attention from security and ethics scholars. With the publication of the ethical guideline Trustworthy AI by the European Union (EU), normative questions on the application of AI have been further evaluated. In order to draw conclusions on Trustworthy AI as a point of reference for responsible research and development (R&D), we approach the diffusion of AI across both civilian and military spheres in the EU. We capture the extent of technological diffusion and derive European and German patent citation networks. Both networks indicate a low degree of diffusion of AI between civilian and defense sectors. A qualitative investigation of project descriptions of a research institute’s work in both civilian and military fields shows that military AI applications stress accuracy or robustness, while civilian AI reflects a focus on human-centric values. Our work represents a first approach by linking processes of technology diffusion with normative evaluations of R&D.

Technology Spillovers Through Exports: Empirical Evidence for the Chinese Case

International trade is one of the main channels of technological diffusion as it allows countries to have access to technology developed by others in the process of buying and selling intermediate inputs and capital goods. In the 1990s, China initiated a process of major incentives for the development of new technologies and this was intensified in the 2000s. The country is now a potential technology donor, which contributes to the global diffusion of technology. The main objective of this paper is to analyze the effects of technological spillovers from China through international trade. The analysis considered 22 OECD member countries, including China, and 17 manufacturing industries for the 2008–2014 period. The results indicate that China is contributing to the process of technological diffusion with both negative and positive spillovers. Besides identifying the spillovers from China broken down according to industries, our results also indicate that domestic and foreign spillovers are important channels of technological diffusion.

Network structures, environmental technology and contagion

ABSTRACT Diffusion of low-carbon technologies is critical to global decarbonization efforts aimed at achieving the Paris Agreement climate goals. In this paper, we represent a social system as a network of agents and model the process of technology diffusion as a contagion propagating in such a network. By setting the necessary conditions for an agent to switch (i.e. to adopt the technology), we address the question of how to maximize the contagion of a technology subject to learning effects (e.g. solar PV) in a network of agents. We focus the analysis on the influence of the network structure and technological learning on diffusion. Our numerical results show that clusters of agents are critical in the process of technology contagion although they generate high levels of variance in aggregate diffusion. Whatever the network structure, learning effects ease the technology contagion in social networks. Key policy insights: Policy makers should take advantage of, or favour, clustered organizations to deploy renewables (e.g. cooperatives of farmers, online social networks) Social dimensions are critical in the design of environmental policies (e.g. peer effects) Technologies subject to learning effects spread further in the population When considering social connections, policy makers should design policies to cope with uncertainty in diffusion (clustered organizations exhibit high levels of uncertainty in adoption).

Industry Leaders’ Perceptions of Residential Wood Pellet Technology Diffusion in the Northeastern U.S.

Within a shifting climate of renewable energy options, technology innovations in the energy sector are vital in combating fossil-fuel-driven climate change and economic growth. To enter this market dominated by fossil fuels, renewable energy innovations need to overcome significant barriers related to cost, relative advantages compared to fossil fuels, and policy incentive programs. A better understanding of the innovation diffusion of new technologies in establishing the renewable energy industry can aid policy makers in designing and implementing other renewable energy support programs and improving adoption rates within existing programs. This study assessed industry leaders’ perceptions through semi-structured interviews. We explored the innovation diffusion process of wood pellet residential heating technology, as well as policy needs and barriers within this industry that are hindering successful long-term diffusion and sustainability. We show that while there is high potential to the wood pellet industry in terms of local resources and overall advantages to fossil fuels, it can be difficult to achieve sustainable economic growth with current cost barriers and further policy programs and incentives are needed in addition to improved communication to reduce adoption barriers for wood pellet technology.

Information asymmetries between vendors and customers in the advanced construction technology diffusion process

PurposeAdvanced construction technologies (ACTs) are transforming infrastructure projects, yet there has been little research into and theorization of the process by which these innovations are diffused. The purpose of this paper is to address this paucity of research by exploring the problems of information asymmetries between vendors and customers in the ACT diffusion process. Specifically, the paper explores whether information asymmetries exist between vendors and customers in the ACT diffusion process and what forms they take.Design/methodology/approachA structured survey of 153 vendors and customers of advanced construction technologies was undertaken across three international ACT exhibitions in Australia.FindingsBy comparing the perspectives of both customers and vendors across 15 technology diffusion process variables using importance-performance analysis and principal component analysis, significant differences are found between vendors’ and customers’ perceptions of how effectively information flows in the ACT diffusion process. The results show that vendors are significantly more optimistic than customers about information asymmetries on a wide range of diffusion variables. They also highlight significant potential for information asymmetries to occur which can undermine the advanced technology diffusion process.Originality/valueThe results provide important new conceptual and practical insights into an under-researched area, which is of increasing importance to a major industry, which is being transformed by advanced technological developments.