ABSTRACT End-recycling governance is the core link for achieving high-quality development of circular economy. This study uses data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021 as research samples, constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system, and analyzes the achievements and progress of end-recycling governance in China over the years. Based on scenario analysis, a GM-SVR-BP combined model is further used to explore the development trends of end-recycling governance performance in 30 provinces in China from 2022 to 2030. Research finding: (1) The end-recycling governance performance of Chinese provinces presents a dynamic upward trend, but overall, it is low. (2) The barycenter of end-recycling governance in China migrated to the southeast, and the transfer speed was stable, showing a northeast-southwest pattern. There are pronounced differences among different regions. (3) There are apparent spatial autocorrelation characteristics in China’s end-recycling governance. The overall spatial agglomeration degree showed a weakening trend during the observation period. (4) The development trend of end-recycling governance performance in various regions in China during 2022–2030 follows the differentiation characteristics of the observation period in this study. Among them, technological breakthrough is one of the effective ways to improve the performance of end-recycling governance. The effect of the improvement of emotional level on the performance of end-recycling governance showed apparent regional heterogeneity. This study provides a clear and reliable decision-making basis for promoting the improvement of regional end-recycling governance performance and system construction, and has certain reference value for promoting national and regional resource conservation and environmental protection.
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