Technological Accidents Research Articles

A systematic literature review of risk management research on hydrometeorological hazards-related Natech events

Natech events refer to technological accidents triggered by natural hazards, potentially leading to fires, explosions, and hazardous material (hazmat) releases. Notably, hydrometeorological hazards, exemplified by hurricanes, have led to an escalating frequency of Natech events over recent decades, resulting in significant socio-economic impacts and substantial financial losses. Consequently, Natech has evolved into a critical domain within risk management, garnering heightened scholarly and professional attention. Urgent application of effective strategies for managing and mitigating risks associated with hydrometeorological-related Natech events is crucial, particularly in the context of increasing climate change threats. Thus, A comprehensive review of risk management developments for hydrometeorological Natech events is essential to identify the research gaps and summarize the future direction. Aimed at achieving that purpose, this study was conducted to systematically review literature pertaining to hydrometeorological Natech events, conducting a comprehensive analysis to elucidate research trends, identify current knowledge gaps, and propose future research directions. The findings of this study would support risk managers and multi-stakeholders in developing effective Natech risk reduction strategies and climate change adaptation policies. Meanwhile, this study is expected to promote future research in risk management, causal mechanisms, and preparedness strategies for hydrometeorological Natech events.

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Government–Enterprise Collaboration in Coping with Natech Risks

The synergistic interaction between emergency management departments and enterprises constitutes a fundamental mechanism for mitigating the risks of technological accidents caused by natural disasters (Natech). The efficacy of this collaborative approach is impacted by comprehensive risk analyses and the game between government and enterprise. Predicated on these premises, the evolutionary game analysis of government–enterprise collaboration in coping with Natech risk was carried out. Firstly, an evolutionary game model of government–enterprise collaboration in coping with Natech risk was constructed. Secondly, the evolutionary stability strategy (ESS) was developed. Finally, these strategies were substantiated through numerical simulations. The findings revealed that at lower levels of Natech risk, enterprises will choose low investment in coping capacity building, and emergency management departments will choose delayed disposal. Under moderate Natech risk, enterprises will increase their investments if emergency management departments persist with delayed strategies, and emergency management departments will react proactively if enterprises persist with low investment. Under a high Natech risk, a pattern of strategic misalignment emerges between the two entities. This study contributes a theoretical basis for the optimization of government–enterprise collaboration in coping with Natech risks.

Evaluation of natech criteria in organized industrial zones: An application for Kırıkkale province

Natural disasters are unexpected natural events that cause severe property loss and moral damage. Türkiye has been exposed to many disasters due to its location. One of the disasters experienced is the Kahramanmaraş earthquake that occurred on February 6th, 2023, in the recent past. Two consecutive earthquakes caused significant loss of life and property. In addition, some technological accidents happened because of the earthquake. The biggest of these was the fire in the Iskenderun marina. After the earthquake, the big fire that started with the fire of the containers on the quay could be brought under control after a long effort and time. Although it is often overshadowed by natural disasters, technological accidents triggered by natural disasters (Natech) accidents can cause severe damage. Especially Organized Industrial Zones (OIZ) are in areas with high Natech risk. This study determined 10 criteria that will cause Natech accidents for OIZs by literature review. The Pythagorean Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (PFAHP) method is used to weight the criteria. Then, a ranking is made using The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method among the five sectors operating in Kırıkkale OIZ and which may have Natech risk.

Ranking of sectors in organized industrial zones according to Natech risk criteria: An application for Gaziantep province in Türkiye

Technological accidents triggered by natural disasters are called Natech accidents. Natech accidents have the impact of increasing the negative effects of disasters. One of the places at risk for a Natech accident is the Organized Industrial Zones (OIZs), where many industrial establishments are located. Although businesses within OIZs are evaluated in terms of security, Natech risk assessment is often ignored. This situation causes Natech accidents to occur. For these reasons, the study focused on evaluating OIZs regarding Natech risk. Many criteria such as electrical resources, natural gas, distance between buildings and so forth are taken into account in Natech's risk assessment. However, it is challenging to make clear decisions and predictions about these criteria due to the nature of the disaster. There is inherently uncertainty and confusion during and after a disaster. For this reason, using fuzzy sets to evaluate criteria is more appropriate. Therefore, the study uses Pythagorean fuzzy sets, which have a wider fuzzy evaluation area. This study also includes the evaluation of alternative sectors in terms of Natech risk. For this purpose, Pythagorean Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (PFAHP) and Pythagorean Fuzzy the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (PFTOPSIS) methods are used. OIZ in Gaziantep has the largest area compared to those in other cities in Türkiye, is chosen as the application area of the study. As a result of the study, it is determined that the release of hazardous substances and flammable criteria is the most crucial criterion, and the most dangerous sector in terms of Natech risk is the chemical sector.

Effectiveness of countermeasure options for chemical facilities against the discharge of chemical substances into rivers caused by a large earthquake: case study of the Yodo river system in Osaka prefecture, Japan

Technological accidents triggered by natural hazards, which are commonly referred to as Natech events, are rare occurrences yet carry the potential for significant damage. Specifically, the release of hazardous chemicals into the aquatic environment and community water systems poses a grave threat to human health and society. Accordingly, we must conduct assessments that consider the potential consequences of these accidents. In this study, we examined the criteria for implementing spill protection measures to mitigate river spills of chemical substances using information on the amount of chemical substances and their toxicity. The countermeasure options readily available to employees at industrial plants and chemical storage sites where a chemical spill might originate included emergency shut-off valves, bunds and related spill containment structures, and other spill prevention measures. In this case study, a combination of countermeasure options was evaluated to examine the effectiveness of spill mitigation in the Yodo River located in the Kyoto Prefecture of Japan. Results of the case study showed that bunds were emerged as the most useful countermeasure option, reducing the probability of accidents occurring and impact of accidents. We also defined a methodology for calculating the chemical storage volumes appropriate for different countermeasures to ensure that the concentration of chemicals that could reach the water intake does not exceed the standard values. We believe that these methodologies can help chemical-handling companies make decisions when countermeasure options for responding to a chemical spill into a river. Chemical-handling companies can estimate the risk to downstream water treatment plants in the chemical spill, which can also help them consider mitigation measures.

Evaluation of Disaster Perception Levels of University Students: A Sample Application Study

Disasters are important events that are difficult to predict and occur in various ways, often with high destructive power. Earthquakes, floods, droughts, major industrial accidents, famine, technological accidents, epidemics, etc. are only a few of the major types of disas-ters that mankind has been exposed to from past to present. In recent years, natural and unnatural disaster events have been observed both in Turkey (Düzce-earthquake, 1999; Giresun-Dereli-flood-flood, 2020; Kahramanmaraş-Pazarcık-earthquake, 2023) and in many other parts of the world (Sumatra-tsunami, 2004; Ecuador-earthquake, 2016; USA-hurricane-storm, 2023). The impact of disasters is often not limited to one region but can spread over a wide area. As a matter of fact, the impact of this destruction can be reduced at some point thanks to various measures that can be taken before the disaster. For exam-ple, identification of regional risks, early warning systems, crisis management, emergency action plans, etc. can be considered within the scope of these measures. Another important issue is to increase the level of disaster awareness of the society. Especially in regions where disaster risk maps have been prepared, such awareness raising activities can be carried out to make the reaction of the society against disasters more controlled and conscious. The aforementioned issues constitute the main objective of this study. This study was conducted to evaluate the disaster awareness levels of Gümüşhane Univer-sity central campus students. The data obtained in the study were analyzed using SPPS 25 statistical program. In the study, a 5-point Likert scale was used to measure disaster risk perception. In the study, frequency analysis test, Kruskal Wallis test and Mann Whitney U test were performed. As a result of the analysis, it was analyzed at 5% level of significance (p<0.05) and it is stated in the tables as arithmetic mean, standard deviation and percent-age of the number of individuals. Accordingly, as a result of the non-parametric Mann Whitney-U test, no significant difference was found between the groups. As a result of the non-parametric Mann Whitney-U test conducted to determine whether the disaster risk perception sub-dimension scores of the students differed significantly according to the gender variable, a statistically significant difference was found between the groups at the p<0.05 level in favor of the group exposed to disaster.

Protecting oil storage tanks against floods: Natech risk assessment with imprecise probabilities

AbstractNatechs are technological accidents that are triggered by natural disasters. The increase in the frequency and severity of climatic natural disasters along with the growth of industrialization has accelerated the demand for development of dedicated methodologies for risk assessment and management of Natechs. Due to a lack of accurate and sufficient data, risk assessment of Natechs has largely been based on subjective assumptions and imprecise probabilities, making the assessed risks and the subsequent risk management strategies deficient in terms of cost‐effectiveness. In the present study, evidence theory, as an effective technique for dealing with imprecise probabilities, and Bayesian network, as an effective tool for reasoning under uncertainty, are combined to develop a methodology for risk analysis of Natechs based on imprecise probabilities with no attempt to increase the precision of the input data but the accuracy and cost‐effectiveness of the outcomes. Flotation of oil tanks during floods has been considered to exemplify the methodology. The methodology is demonstrated to outperform conventional approaches where average probabilities or generic probability distributions are used instead of interval probabilities for risk assessment and management.

Disaster Management in the Western Balkans Territory – Condition Analysis and Conceptualisation of the Cross-Border Cooperation Model

Abstract The main objective of the paper is analysis and proposal of a concept for establishing an efficient system for disaster management in the Western Balkan countries. After the breakup of Yugoslavia (1992), there has been no effective system for managing emergency situations, while cross-border cooperation in this respect does not exist at all. The paper provides an overview of the situation in the field of emergency and crisis management in five countries of the region and a concept of promotion and cross-border cooperation in this field. The results of the research show that no country in the region has adequate emergency and disaster management system and that, regardless of the negative experiences, an efficient multilateral cooperation system has not been established so far in this field (there is neither regulatory framework nor proposals for the model of organization and for the procedures or technical mechanisms that would make the above possible). Therefore, the concept of establishing the Regional Center for Disaster Management in the Western Balkans territory (RCDM-WB) is proposed as a first step in handling disaster situations that arise from natural phenomena or technical and technological accidents. This is the first scientifically developed proposal of this kind for the above-mentioned region.

Chemical release risk assessment in earthquake: Natech event scenario

IntroductionIn recent decades, an increase in natural disasters has led to the Natech events occurrence, which are technological accidents triggered by natural hazards. This study aims to assess the risk of chemical release of the H2S toxic gas following an earthquake from the refinery. MethodThe Natech risk assessment was carried out in potential earthquake risk scenarios via a semi-quantitative method using Rapid-N software. The reference scenario was obtained using the Australian SMUG Model, which has presented precise prioritization. FindingsThe Natech risk assessment has shown 40 possible earthquake risk scenarios from 5 enclosing Faults in Tehran (North Tehran, Mosha, North Ray, South Ray, and Kahrizak) with an extension of more than 15 km. The earthquake moment magnitudes of 7.5, 7.1, 6.5, and 5.9 were obtained on the Richter scale and at two Focal depths of 5 and 10 km. The South-Ray Fault (HSR-1) was selected as the reference scenario with a moment magnitude of 7.5 on the Richter scale at a Focal depth of 5 km and a distance of 5.5 km from the earthquake epicenter. The highest probability of Natech risk has shown the release of H2S toxic gas in an area with a radius of 6.59 km from the studied vessel in atmospheric stability conditions. ConclusionLegislation in line with risk reduction, planning for the transfer of potentially dangerous industries to outside urban areas, monitoring land use laws, and promoting coordination between the government, industries, and people in the management of risks caused by industries containing hazardous substances and processes, assessing the risk of Natech events and their consequences, strengthening risk communication and the installation of early warning systems, and public education to adopt personal and socially safe behaviors when facing natural disasters are recommended.

Accidents With Oil Spills Triggered by Natural Hazards

In addition to direct social and economic damage, natural hazards also have a devastating impact on technological facilities, which may trigger accidents at these infrastructures. Especially dangerous consequences for the population and the environment are caused by such natural hazard triggered technological accidents (Natechs), which may result in the release of various hazardous chemical substances including mineral oil. This paper analyzes Natech accidents involving spills of oil and oil products. The materials of the author’s database of technological and natural hazard triggered technological accidents occurred in Russia since 1991 are used as initial information for the analyses. The types of natural hazards and adverse natural phenomena that caused accidents with oil spills on the territory of Russia in 1991-2021 are identified. Natechs make up about 6% of all accidents with oil spills. The main triggers of these accidents are hydrological and meteorological hazards such as strong winds, storms, floods, melt waters, rainfalls, lightning, snow loads, and heat wave, as well as landslides and other ground movements. Earthquakes caused the largest damage, but they are less frequent events in Russia. More often, mineral oil leaks occur as a result of ship accidentsor the destruction of oil storage facilities and pipelines. The regions of the greatest risk of accident occurrences with oil spills in Russia are identified.

Agent-based modeling methodology and temporal simulation for Natech events in chemical clusters

In chemical clusters, technological accidents triggered by natural events (Natech events) can lead to the failure of large number of units and cause catastrophic consequences. Previous studies on Natech events give primary concerns on the static analysis at small-scale region with few thoughts the impact of various safety barriers. From the perspective of the large-scale region and temporal characteristics, an agent-based modeling methodology is proposed to present the dynamic evolution process. All the units associated with the evolution are divided into natural hazard agent, hazard-affected facility agent, safety barrier agent, and escalation factor agent to reduce the computational complexity. The time-dependent state transition mechanism of each agent is analyzed to represent the evolution process, simultaneously, the temporal effect of natural hazards, safety barrier and multi escalation factors is considered by utilization of time steps. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulation is adopted to quantify the uncertainties accompanying an accident evolution. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on a complex chemical system in the large-scale region. The results of simulation show that the number of failed hazard-affected facilities in the Natech events scenario will cyclically increase and keep constant, with strong temporal characteristic. The intensity of natural hazards and the probability of failure of safety barriers make a big impact on the temporal characteristic. The results are valuable to support natural hazard prevention in chemical cluster.

A general method for multi–hazard intensity assessment for cultural resources: Implementation in the region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, Greece

The protection of cultural resources from natural and human–induced hazards has been an area of intense scientific interest over time. The literature highlights that, despite the intensive research efforts to date, there is a lack of a commonly accepted hazard assessment framework that supports decision–making to limit their negative effects and contribute to the protection of cultural heritage. In this paper a general method for assessing the intensity of multiple hazards on cultural resources is developed and applied. The proposed method utilizes a) the capabilities of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), b) open geospatial hazard data and c) an original 7–step integrated method developed in this research. Key features of the proposed method are its ability to consider and synthesize intensities of both quantitative hazards such as earthquake, flood and hazards expressed on a qualitative scale, such as wildfire and landslide. The proposed method is applied to assess the exposure of 918 cultural resources of the Region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, Greece, to earthquake, flood, landslide, sea level rise, wildfire, soil erosion and industrial–technological accident and develop an aggregate multi–hazard intensity index (mhii) for each of the cultural resources in this region. The proposed method can be applied to hazard intensity assessment for resources other than cultural, such as the human capital of a region, infrastructure, environment, and economic facilities. This provides researchers, scientists, and managers of cultural sites with a tool to set priorities for the design of appropriate mitigation strategies to reduce the negative impacts of hazards.

Is critical infrastructure safe from wildfires? A case study of wildland-industrial and -urban interface areas in South Korea

Global climate change, global warming, and unplanned urbanization have resulted in industrial facilities and livelihoods encroaching on wildlands. Wildfire risks concerns about natural hazards triggering technological accidents (Natech) caused by wildfires in wildland-industrial and -urban interface areas are globally increasing. As wildfires that could trigger Natech accidents occur infrequently but often with unpredicted and uncontrollable consequences, critical infrastructure and industrial facilities should prepare for the potential catastrophic impact of wildfires beforehand. This paper describes a case study of wildfire-threatened critical energy infrastructure located in wildland-industrial interface (WII) and wildland-urban interface (WUI) areas in South Korea. The energy infrastructure avoided a serious Natech accident through intensive risk and emergency management. Although there was no Natech disaster or dreadful damage to the energy facility, this threat to the energy infrastructure is a reminder to prepare for future Natech disasters in WII and WUI areas that could result in unmanageable consequences. This study highlights the need for intensive and integrated wildfire-specific Natech risk management, considering critical infrastructure and industrial facilities in WII and WUI areas, that should include all stakeholders with local residents and enhance Natech resilience.

Avalanches as triggers of technological accidents

Avalanches as triggers of technological accidents

Understanding the patterns and characteristics of Natech events in China

With the frequent occurrence of natural disasters, natural hazard triggered technological accident (Natech) risk has attracted extensive attention from academia and industry. Natech events have the characteristics of various inducements and consequences, cascading chain reactions, and complex spatial interleaving, which leads to serious consequences. The Natech event is constantly threatening China's industrial safety production. However, the systematic analysis of Natech events in China is still lacking. The study counted 288 cases in the past 20 years and constructed Natech databases. Based on the theory of risk chain and risk system, a systematic horizontal and vertical analysis was developed for the first time. It aims to understand the characteristics of Natech events in terms of temporal and spatial, hazard factors, industry and risk material, consequences and hazard. In the results, Natech events showed a fluctuating trend. The southwest region (28.13%) and the middle Yellow River region (21.18%) belong to the critical control areas. China's industries were seriously affected by the disasters of meteorological (43.75%) and secondary, especially in the Chemical & Petrochemical and manufacturing. 64.58% of Natech events caused environmental pollution, and 13.19% of Natech events caused major or above consequences. Oil (31.25%) and hazardous chemicals (28.47%) were the main substances causing pollution, fire and explosion, which need to be controlled. The research preliminarily clarifies the risk chain and characteristics of Natech events, which provided the basis for Natech risk assessment.

Risk assessment of chemical release accident triggered by landslide using Bayesian network

This study evaluated the risk of 461,260,800 scenarios of chemical release accidents triggered by landslides. Several industrial accidents triggered by landslides have recently occurred in Japan; however, only a few studies have analyzed the impact of landslide-triggered chemical release accidents on the surrounding areas. Bayesian networks (BNs) have recently been used in the risk assessment of natural hazardtriggered technological accidents (Natech) to quantify uncertainties and develop methods applicable to multiple scenarios. However, the scope of BN-based quantitative risk assessment is limited to the risk assessment of explosions triggered by earthquakes and lightning. We aimed to extend the BN-based risk analysis methodology and evaluate the risk and the effectiveness of the countermeasures for specific facility. A methodology was developed to assess human health risk in the surrounding areas when n-hexane was released and dispersed into the atmosphere due to a landslide. Risk assessment results showed that the societal risk (representing the relationship between frequency and number of people suffering from a particular harm) of the storage tank closest to the slope exceeded the Netherlands' criteria, which are the safest among the criteria in the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Denmark, and the Netherlands. Limiting the storage rate reduced the probability of one or more fatalities by up to about 40% compared with the no countermeasure case and was a more effective countermeasure than using oil fences and absorbents. Diagnostic analyses quantitatively showed that the distance between the tank and slope was the main contributing factor. The catch basin parameter contributed to the reduction in the variance of the results compared to the storage rate. This finding indicated that physical measures, such as strengthening or deepening the catch basin, are essential for risk reduction. Our methods can be applied to other natural disasters for multiple scenarios by combining it with other models.

Détermination des Zones de Planification des mesures d’urgence (ZPU) autour de sites présentant des risques d’accidents technologiques majeurs

This article presents a methodology to establish the emergency planning zones around a site that presents risks of major technological accidents involving hazardous substances. A process to reduce the impact zones from these accidents is also presented. A concrete example involving an ammonia refrigeration system is included to illustrate the subject. The identification of the emergency planning zones is critical for public safety and is used for the preparation of emergency response plans by the site and the public emergency response organizations.

Stadium Disasters

Introduction:Stadiums are an important part of the entertainment and sporting cultures of communities around the world, but the combination of outdated infrastructure with poor safety planning, large numbers of people gathering within a confined space, and the high frequency of such events have led to a number of significant disasters in the past.This is a descriptive analysis of stadium disasters occurring between 1901-2021 which may provide useful insight for event safety personnel and disaster medicine specialists to better prevent and mitigate the effects of potential future stadium disasters.Method:Data was collected using a retrospective database search of the Emergency Events Database (EM-DATS) for all stadium-related accidental disasters occurring between January 1, 1901-July 30, 2022. A disaster is defined by CRED in its glossary as “technological accidents of an industrial nature, or involving industrial buildings”. All categories and definitions are predetermined by the EM-DATS as per their glossary.Results:The May 24, 1964 Estadio Nacional disaster in Lima, Peru was the worst (in terms of deaths) to date with 350 deaths. This is followed by the 1982 Luzhniki Stadium disaster in Moscow, Russia (340 deaths), the 2001 Accra Sport Stadium disaster in Ghana (123 deaths), and the 1985 Hillsborough Stadium disaster in Sheffield, England (96 deaths) as well as 14 of the 40 stadium disasters occurred in Africa, 11 in Europe, 10 in the Americas, and five in Asia.Conclusion:A total of 40 stadium disasters were included, leading to 2,025 deaths and 6,640 injuries. This equated to an average of 50.6 deaths and 166.0 injuries per disaster. Given the potential risk of mass casualty events, stadiums should incorporate disaster medicine education, training, and expertise in their emergency medical plans.

BLEVE: Safety distances estimation by simple models based on the Jakob number

One of the most important points in the design of inherently safe processes is to estimate reliable distances among process units at preliminary stages of the plant project to minimize losses and damages caused by the potential occurrence of technological accidents. Therefore, in this paper the achievement of simple, general, dimensionless and reliable equations (Simple Dimensionless Models SDMs) for the direct estimation of safety distances considering the occurrence of BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion) event, is proposed. The developed models directly relate safety distances with critical design/operation variables (involved substance, vessel volume, target vulnerability and explosion temperature), which are easily accessible at early stages of the plant project. SDMs are achieved by analysing the influence of these simple variables on the safety distances, which are estimated using a selected rigorous model (Reference Model RfM). This task is simplified by the incorporation of the Jakob Number as an input variable, allowing to obtain dimensionless models and simultaneously an adequate representation of the explosion conditions and the involved substances. As result, the achieved SDMs demonstrate a particularly good fit with respect to the RfM estimations and, at the same time, reliability and versatility. As it is shown in the analysed study cases (involving critical decision variables for the process design and the system safety), the SDMs prove to be also accurate, general, and easily incorporable into more complex optimization problems (QRA analysis, design of emergency plans, safety distance estimation to minimize the probability of domino effects, optimal layout designs, among others).

Про можливість проведення деяких видів експертиз у справах про дтп до відкриття кримінального провадження

The article examines the possibility of conducting some types of expert examinations in cases of road accidents before the opening of criminal proceedings, discusses the debatable issues related to the violation of the personal interests of the participants at the stage of opening criminal proceedings and the unjustified delay in making a decision to open criminal proceedings or to refuse them. The considered proposal to allow the conduct of certain types of forensic examinations at the stage of the opening of criminal proceedings for the purpose of verifying statements and reports about the commission of a criminal offense based on the current practice of appointing forensic medical examinations in certain categories of cases and conducting an inspection of the scene of the incident. The opinion was expressed regarding the lack of grounds for not granting permission to carry out an examination before the opening of criminal proceedings in view of the creation of a dangerous precedent of violation of the law in terms of the mandatory condition for conducting investigative actions only in open criminal proceedings. ​The appointment and conducting of an examination prior to the opening of criminal proceedings primarily refers to examinations on the facts of road accidents, when without the use of special knowledge it is practically impossible to establish the signs of the nature of the crime and to resolve the issue of opening criminal proceedings. ​The article concludes that conducting an examination before the opening of criminal proceedings does not violate the personal interests of the participants who have not yet received their procedural status at this stage. In contrast to the previous study, only the completion of the examination in full meets the legal requirements for the evidentiary resolution of special issues. In order to obtain evidentiary information when solving the question of the validity of opening criminal proceedings at the legislative level, it is proposed to provide for the possibility of conducting some types of examinations, in particular, during events related to fires, explosions, transport and technological accidents, etc.